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Oct 31

The Memorization Problem: Can We Trust LLMs' Economic Forecasts?

Large language models (LLMs) cannot be trusted for economic forecasts during periods covered by their training data. We provide the first systematic evaluation of LLMs' memorization of economic and financial data, including major economic indicators, news headlines, stock returns, and conference calls. Our findings show that LLMs can perfectly recall the exact numerical values of key economic variables from before their knowledge cutoff dates. This recall appears to be randomly distributed across different dates and data types. This selective perfect memory creates a fundamental issue -- when testing forecasting capabilities before their knowledge cutoff dates, we cannot distinguish whether LLMs are forecasting or simply accessing memorized data. Explicit instructions to respect historical data boundaries fail to prevent LLMs from achieving recall-level accuracy in forecasting tasks. Further, LLMs seem exceptional at reconstructing masked entities from minimal contextual clues, suggesting that masking provides inadequate protection against motivated reasoning. Our findings raise concerns about using LLMs to forecast historical data or backtest trading strategies, as their apparent predictive success may merely reflect memorization rather than genuine economic insight. Any application where future knowledge would change LLMs' outputs can be affected by memorization. In contrast, consistent with the absence of data contamination, LLMs cannot recall data after their knowledge cutoff date.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 20

Bridging Language Models and Financial Analysis

The rapid advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have unlocked transformative possibilities in natural language processing, particularly within the financial sector. Financial data is often embedded in intricate relationships across textual content, numerical tables, and visual charts, posing challenges that traditional methods struggle to address effectively. However, the emergence of LLMs offers new pathways for processing and analyzing this multifaceted data with increased efficiency and insight. Despite the fast pace of innovation in LLM research, there remains a significant gap in their practical adoption within the finance industry, where cautious integration and long-term validation are prioritized. This disparity has led to a slower implementation of emerging LLM techniques, despite their immense potential in financial applications. As a result, many of the latest advancements in LLM technology remain underexplored or not fully utilized in this domain. This survey seeks to bridge this gap by providing a comprehensive overview of recent developments in LLM research and examining their applicability to the financial sector. Building on previous survey literature, we highlight several novel LLM methodologies, exploring their distinctive capabilities and their potential relevance to financial data analysis. By synthesizing insights from a broad range of studies, this paper aims to serve as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners, offering direction on promising research avenues and outlining future opportunities for advancing LLM applications in finance.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 13

UniOQA: A Unified Framework for Knowledge Graph Question Answering with Large Language Models

OwnThink stands as the most extensive Chinese open-domain knowledge graph introduced in recent times. Despite prior attempts in question answering over OwnThink (OQA), existing studies have faced limitations in model representation capabilities, posing challenges in further enhancing overall accuracy in question answering. In this paper, we introduce UniOQA, a unified framework that integrates two complementary parallel workflows. Unlike conventional approaches, UniOQA harnesses large language models (LLMs) for precise question answering and incorporates a direct-answer-prediction process as a cost-effective complement. Initially, to bolster representation capacity, we fine-tune an LLM to translate questions into the Cypher query language (CQL), tackling issues associated with restricted semantic understanding and hallucinations. Subsequently, we introduce the Entity and Relation Replacement algorithm to ensure the executability of the generated CQL. Concurrently, to augment overall accuracy in question answering, we further adapt the Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) process to the knowledge graph. Ultimately, we optimize answer accuracy through a dynamic decision algorithm. Experimental findings illustrate that UniOQA notably advances SpCQL Logical Accuracy to 21.2% and Execution Accuracy to 54.9%, achieving the new state-of-the-art results on this benchmark. Through ablation experiments, we delve into the superior representation capacity of UniOQA and quantify its performance breakthrough.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 4, 2024

Multi-fidelity climate model parameterization for better generalization and extrapolation

Machine-learning-based parameterizations (i.e. representation of sub-grid processes) of global climate models or turbulent simulations have recently been proposed as a powerful alternative to physical, but empirical, representations, offering a lower computational cost and higher accuracy. Yet, those approaches still suffer from a lack of generalization and extrapolation beyond the training data, which is however critical to projecting climate change or unobserved regimes of turbulence. Here we show that a multi-fidelity approach, which integrates datasets of different accuracy and abundance, can provide the best of both worlds: the capacity to extrapolate leveraging the physically-based parameterization and a higher accuracy using the machine-learning-based parameterizations. In an application to climate modeling, the multi-fidelity framework yields more accurate climate projections without requiring major increase in computational resources. Our multi-fidelity randomized prior networks (MF-RPNs) combine physical parameterization data as low-fidelity and storm-resolving historical run's data as high-fidelity. To extrapolate beyond the training data, the MF-RPNs are tested on high-fidelity warming scenarios, +4K, data. We show the MF-RPN's capacity to return much more skillful predictions compared to either low- or high-fidelity (historical data) simulations trained only on one regime while providing trustworthy uncertainty quantification across a wide range of scenarios. Our approach paves the way for the use of machine-learning based methods that can optimally leverage historical observations or high-fidelity simulations and extrapolate to unseen regimes such as climate change.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 18, 2023

FinAgentBench: A Benchmark Dataset for Agentic Retrieval in Financial Question Answering

Accurate information retrieval (IR) is critical in the financial domain, where investors must identify relevant information from large collections of documents. Traditional IR methods -- whether sparse or dense -- often fall short in retrieval accuracy, as it requires not only capturing semantic similarity but also performing fine-grained reasoning over document structure and domain-specific knowledge. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have opened up new opportunities for retrieval with multi-step reasoning, where the model ranks passages through iterative reasoning about which information is most relevant to a given query. However, there exists no benchmark to evaluate such capabilities in the financial domain. To address this gap, we introduce FinAgentBench, the first large-scale benchmark for evaluating retrieval with multi-step reasoning in finance -- a setting we term agentic retrieval. The benchmark consists of 26K expert-annotated examples on S&P-500 listed firms and assesses whether LLM agents can (1) identify the most relevant document type among candidates, and (2) pinpoint the key passage within the selected document. Our evaluation framework explicitly separates these two reasoning steps to address context limitations. This design enables to provide a quantitative basis for understanding retrieval-centric LLM behavior in finance. We evaluate a suite of state-of-the-art models and further demonstrated how targeted fine-tuning can significantly improve agentic retrieval performance. Our benchmark provides a foundation for studying retrieval-centric LLM behavior in complex, domain-specific tasks for finance.

  • 11 authors
·
Aug 7

PIXIU: A Large Language Model, Instruction Data and Evaluation Benchmark for Finance

Although large language models (LLMs) has shown great performance on natural language processing (NLP) in the financial domain, there are no publicly available financial tailtored LLMs, instruction tuning datasets, and evaluation benchmarks, which is critical for continually pushing forward the open-source development of financial artificial intelligence (AI). This paper introduces PIXIU, a comprehensive framework including the first financial LLM based on fine-tuning LLaMA with instruction data, the first instruction data with 136K data samples to support the fine-tuning, and an evaluation benchmark with 5 tasks and 9 datasets. We first construct the large-scale multi-task instruction data considering a variety of financial tasks, financial document types, and financial data modalities. We then propose a financial LLM called FinMA by fine-tuning LLaMA with the constructed dataset to be able to follow instructions for various financial tasks. To support the evaluation of financial LLMs, we propose a standardized benchmark that covers a set of critical financial tasks, including five financial NLP tasks and one financial prediction task. With this benchmark, we conduct a detailed analysis of FinMA and several existing LLMs, uncovering their strengths and weaknesses in handling critical financial tasks. The model, datasets, benchmark, and experimental results are open-sourced to facilitate future research in financial AI.

TheFinAI The Fin AI
·
Jun 8, 2023

ClimSim: An open large-scale dataset for training high-resolution physics emulators in hybrid multi-scale climate simulators

Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore's Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to ML experts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res, https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res, and https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res_aqua-planet) and code (https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim) are released openly to support the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations for the benefit of science and society.

  • 56 authors
·
Jun 14, 2023

The FinBen: An Holistic Financial Benchmark for Large Language Models

LLMs have transformed NLP and shown promise in various fields, yet their potential in finance is underexplored due to a lack of thorough evaluations and the complexity of financial tasks. This along with the rapid development of LLMs, highlights the urgent need for a systematic financial evaluation benchmark for LLMs. In this paper, we introduce FinBen, the first comprehensive open-sourced evaluation benchmark, specifically designed to thoroughly assess the capabilities of LLMs in the financial domain. FinBen encompasses 35 datasets across 23 financial tasks, organized into three spectrums of difficulty inspired by the Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory, to evaluate LLMs' cognitive abilities in inductive reasoning, associative memory, quantitative reasoning, crystallized intelligence, and more. Our evaluation of 15 representative LLMs, including GPT-4, ChatGPT, and the latest Gemini, reveals insights into their strengths and limitations within the financial domain. The findings indicate that GPT-4 leads in quantification, extraction, numerical reasoning, and stock trading, while Gemini shines in generation and forecasting; however, both struggle with complex extraction and forecasting, showing a clear need for targeted enhancements. Instruction tuning boosts simple task performance but falls short in improving complex reasoning and forecasting abilities. FinBen seeks to continuously evaluate LLMs in finance, fostering AI development with regular updates of tasks and models.

TheFinAI The Fin AI
·
Feb 19, 2024 5

The infrastructure powering IBM's Gen AI model development

AI Infrastructure plays a key role in the speed and cost-competitiveness of developing and deploying advanced AI models. The current demand for powerful AI infrastructure for model training is driven by the emergence of generative AI and foundational models, where on occasion thousands of GPUs must cooperate on a single training job for the model to be trained in a reasonable time. Delivering efficient and high-performing AI training requires an end-to-end solution that combines hardware, software and holistic telemetry to cater for multiple types of AI workloads. In this report, we describe IBM's hybrid cloud infrastructure that powers our generative AI model development. This infrastructure includes (1) Vela: an AI-optimized supercomputing capability directly integrated into the IBM Cloud, delivering scalable, dynamic, multi-tenant and geographically distributed infrastructure for large-scale model training and other AI workflow steps and (2) Blue Vela: a large-scale, purpose-built, on-premises hosting environment that is optimized to support our largest and most ambitious AI model training tasks. Vela provides IBM with the dual benefit of high performance for internal use along with the flexibility to adapt to an evolving commercial landscape. Blue Vela provides us with the benefits of rapid development of our largest and most ambitious models, as well as future-proofing against the evolving model landscape in the industry. Taken together, they provide IBM with the ability to rapidly innovate in the development of both AI models and commercial offerings.

  • 146 authors
·
Jul 7, 2024

MultiFinBen: A Multilingual, Multimodal, and Difficulty-Aware Benchmark for Financial LLM Evaluation

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have accelerated progress in financial NLP and applications, yet existing benchmarks remain limited to monolingual and unimodal settings, often over-relying on simple tasks and failing to reflect the complexity of real-world financial communication. We introduce MultiFinBen, the first multilingual and multimodal benchmark tailored to the global financial domain, evaluating LLMs across modalities (text, vision, audio) and linguistic settings (monolingual, bilingual, multilingual) on domain-specific tasks. We introduce two novel tasks, including PolyFiQA-Easy and PolyFiQA-Expert, the first multilingual financial benchmarks requiring models to perform complex reasoning over mixed-language inputs; and EnglishOCR and SpanishOCR, the first OCR-embedded financial QA tasks challenging models to extract and reason over information from visual-text financial documents. Moreover, we propose a dynamic, difficulty-aware selection mechanism and curate a compact, balanced benchmark rather than simple aggregation existing datasets. Extensive evaluation of 22 state-of-the-art models reveals that even the strongest models, despite their general multimodal and multilingual capabilities, struggle dramatically when faced with complex cross-lingual and multimodal tasks in financial domain. MultiFinBen is publicly released to foster transparent, reproducible, and inclusive progress in financial studies and applications.

  • 44 authors
·
Jun 16 3