Daily Papers

Many court systems are overwhelmed all over the world, leading to huge backlogs of pending cases. Effective triage systems, like those in emergency rooms, could ensure proper prioritization of open cases, optimizing time and resource allocation in the court system. In this work, we introduce the Criticality Prediction dataset, a novel resource for evaluating case prioritization. Our dataset features a two-tier labeling system: (1) the binary LD-Label, identifying cases published as Leading Decisions (LD), and (2) the more granular Citation-Label, ranking cases by their citation frequency and recency, allowing for a more nuanced evaluation. Unlike existing approaches that rely on resource-intensive manual annotations, we algorithmically derive labels leading to a much larger dataset than otherwise possible. We evaluate several multilingual models, including both smaller fine-tuned models and large language models in a zero-shot setting. Our results show that the fine-tuned models consistently outperform their larger counterparts, thanks to our large training set. Our results highlight that for highly domain-specific tasks like ours, large training sets are still valuable.

We present a consistent Kaluza-Klein truncation of D=11 supergravity on an arbitrary seven-dimensional Sasaki-Einstein space (SE_7) to a D=4 theory containing a metric, a gauge-field, a complex scalar field and a real scalar field. We use this D=4 theory to construct various black hole solutions that describe the thermodynamics of the d=3 CFTs dual to skew-whiffed AdS_4 X SE_7 solutions. We show that these CFTs have a rich phase diagram, including holographic superconductivity with, generically, broken parity and time reversal invariance. At zero temperature the superconducting solutions are charged domain walls with a universal emergent conformal symmetry in the far infrared.

Large language models have achieved notable success across various domains, yet efficient inference is still limited by the quadratic computation complexity of the attention mechanism. The inference consists of prefilling and decoding phases. Although several attempts have been made to accelerate decoding, the inefficiency of the prefilling phase, especially for long-context tasks, remains a challenge. In this paper, we observe a locality in query criticality during the prefilling phase of long-context processing: adjacent query tokens tend to focus on similar subsets of the past Key-Value (KV) cache. Based on this observation, we propose CritiPrefill, a criticality-based segment-wise prefilling method. This method partitions the input sequence's queries and KV cache into segments and blocks, utilizing a segment-wise algorithm to estimate the query criticality. By pruning non-critical computations between query segments and cache blocks in the self-attention mechanism, the prefilling process can be significantly accelerated. Extensive evaluations on multiple long-context datasets show up to 2.7x speedup on Llama3-8B and 3.0x speedup on Yi-9B for 128K context length on a single A100 GPU, with minimal quality degradation.

We explore the consequences of multi-trace deformations in applications of gauge-gravity duality to condensed matter physics. We find that they introduce a powerful new "knob" that can implement spontaneous symmetry breaking, and can be used to construct a new type of holographic superconductor. This knob can be tuned to drive the critical temperature to zero, leading to a new quantum critical point. We calculate nontrivial critical exponents, and show that fluctuations of the order parameter are `locally' quantum critical in the disordered phase. Most notably the dynamical critical exponent is determined by the dimension of an operator at the critical point. We argue that the results are robust against quantum corrections and discuss various generalizations.

We consider a biological population whose environment varies periodically in time, exhibiting two very different "seasons" : one is favorable and the other one is unfavorable. For monotone differential models with concave nonlinearities, we address the following question: the system's period being fixed, under what conditions does there exist a critical duration for the unfavorable season? By "critical duration" we mean that above some threshold, the population cannot sustain and extincts, while below this threshold, the system converges to a unique periodic and positive solution. We term this a "sharp seasonal threshold property" (SSTP, for short). Building upon a previous result, we obtain sufficient conditions for SSTP in any dimension and apply our criterion to a two-dimensional model featuring juvenile and adult populations of insects.

Critical learning periods are periods early in development where temporary sensory deficits can have a permanent effect on behavior and learned representations. Despite the radical differences between biological and artificial networks, critical learning periods have been empirically observed in both systems. This suggests that critical periods may be fundamental to learning and not an accident of biology. Yet, why exactly critical periods emerge in deep networks is still an open question, and in particular it is unclear whether the critical periods observed in both systems depend on particular architectural or optimization details. To isolate the key underlying factors, we focus on deep linear network models, and show that, surprisingly, such networks also display much of the behavior seen in biology and artificial networks, while being amenable to analytical treatment. We show that critical periods depend on the depth of the model and structure of the data distribution. We also show analytically and in simulations that the learning of features is tied to competition between sources. Finally, we extend our analysis to multi-task learning to show that pre-training on certain tasks can damage the transfer performance on new tasks, and show how this depends on the relationship between tasks and the duration of the pre-training stage. To the best of our knowledge, our work provides the first analytically tractable model that sheds light into why critical learning periods emerge in biological and artificial networks.

Using the example of configurations generated with the worm algorithm for the two-dimensional Ising model, we propose renormalization group (RG) transformations, inspired by the tensor RG, that can be applied to sets of images. We relate criticality to the logarithmic divergence of the largest principal component. We discuss the changes in link occupation under the RG transformation, suggest ways to obtain data collapse, and compare with the two state tensor RG approximation near the fixed point.

We find candidate macroscopic gravity duals for scale-invariant but non-Lorentz invariant fixed points, which do not have particle number as a conserved quantity. We compute two-point correlation functions which exhibit novel behavior relative to their AdS counterparts, and find holographic renormalization group flows to conformal field theories. Our theories are characterized by a dynamical critical exponent z, which governs the anisotropy between spatial and temporal scaling t to lambda^z t, x to lambda x; we focus on the case with z=2. Such theories describe multicritical points in certain magnetic materials and liquid crystals, and have been shown to arise at quantum critical points in toy models of the cuprate superconductors. This work can be considered a small step towards making useful dual descriptions of such critical points.

We show that a simple gravitational theory can provide a holographically dual description of a superconductor. There is a critical temperature, below which a charged condensate forms via a second order phase transition and the (DC) conductivity becomes infinite. The frequency dependent conductivity develops a gap determined by the condensate. We find evidence that the condensate consists of pairs of quasiparticles.

We initiate a holographic model building approach to `strange metallic' phenomenology. Our model couples a neutral Lifshitz-invariant quantum critical theory, dual to a bulk gravitational background, to a finite density of gapped probe charge carriers, dually described by D-branes. In the physical regime of temperature much lower than the charge density and gap, we exhibit anomalous scalings of the temperature and frequency dependent conductivity. Choosing the dynamical critical exponent z appropriately we can match the non-Fermi liquid scalings, such as linear resistivity, observed in strange metal regimes. As part of our investigation we outline three distinct string theory realizations of Lifshitz geometries: from F theory, from polarised branes, and from a gravitating charged Fermi gas. We also identify general features of renormalisation group flow in Lifshitz theories, such as the appearance of relevant charge-charge interactions when z geq 2. We outline a program to extend this model building approach to other anomalous observables of interest such as the Hall conductivity.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

We investigate the signatures of Fermi liquid formation in the N=4 super Yang-Mills theory coupled to fundamental hypermultiplet at nonvanishing chemical potential for the global U(1) vector symmetry. At strong 't Hooft coupling the system can be analyzed in terms of the D7 brane dynamics in AdS_5 x S^5 background. The phases with vanishing and finite charge density are separated at zero temperature by a quantum phase transition. In case of vanishing hypermultiplet mass, Karch, Son and Starinets discovered a gapless excitation whose speed equals the speed of sound. We find that this zero sound mode persists to all values of the hypermultiplet mass, and its speed vanishes at the point of phase transition. The value of critical exponent and the ratio of the velocities of zero and first sounds are consistent with the predictions of Landau Fermi liquid theory at strong coupling.

A critical aspect of power systems research is the availability of suitable data, access to which is limited by privacy concerns and the sensitive nature of energy infrastructure. This lack of data, in turn, hinders the development of modern research avenues such as machine learning approaches or stochastic formulations. To overcome this challenge, this paper proposes a systematic, data-driven framework for reconstructing high-fidelity time series, using publicly-available grid snapshots and historical data published by transmission system operators. The proposed approach, from geo-spatial data and generation capacity reconstruction, to time series disaggregation, is applied to the French transmission grid. Thereby, synthetic but highly realistic time series data, spanning multiple years with a 5-minute granularity, is generated at the individual component level.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Intelligence is a crucial trait for species to find solutions within a limited number of trial-and-error attempts. Building on this idea, we introduce Survival Game as a framework to evaluate intelligence based on the number of failed attempts in a trial-and-error process. Fewer failures indicate higher intelligence. When the expectation and variance of failure counts are both finite, it signals the ability to consistently find solutions to new challenges, which we define as the Autonomous Level of intelligence. Using Survival Game, we comprehensively evaluate existing AI systems. Our results show that while AI systems achieve the Autonomous Level in simple tasks, they are still far from it in more complex tasks, such as vision, search, recommendation, and language. While scaling current AI technologies might help, this would come at an astronomical cost. Projections suggest that achieving the Autonomous Level for general tasks would require 10^{26} parameters. To put this into perspective, loading such a massive model requires so many H100 GPUs that their total value is 10^{7} times that of Apple Inc.'s market value. Even with Moore's Law, supporting such a parameter scale would take 70 years. This staggering cost highlights the complexity of human tasks and the inadequacies of current AI technologies. To further investigate this phenomenon, we conduct a theoretical analysis of Survival Game and its experimental results. Our findings suggest that human tasks possess a criticality property. As a result, Autonomous Level requires a deep understanding of the task's underlying mechanisms. Current AI systems, however, do not fully grasp these mechanisms and instead rely on superficial mimicry, making it difficult for them to reach an autonomous level. We believe Survival Game can not only guide the future development of AI but also offer profound insights into human intelligence.

Global rates of mental health concerns are rising and there is increasing realization that existing models of mental healthcare will not adequately expand to meet the demand. With the emergence of large language models (LLMs) has come great optimism regarding their promise to create novel, large-scale solutions to support mental health. Despite their nascence, LLMs have already been applied to mental health-related tasks. In this review, we summarize the extant literature on efforts to use LLMs to provide mental health education, assessment, and intervention and highlight key opportunities for positive impact in each area. We then highlight risks associated with LLMs application to mental health and encourage adoption of strategies to mitigate these risks. The urgent need for mental health support must be balanced with responsible development, testing, and deployment of mental health LLMs. Especially critical is ensuring that mental health LLMs are fine-tuned for mental health, enhance mental health equity, adhere to ethical standards, and that people, including those with lived experience with mental health concerns, are involved in all stages from development through deployment. Prioritizing these efforts will minimize potential harms to mental health and maximize the likelihood that LLMs will positively impact mental health globally.

Increasingly sophisticated mathematical modelling processes from Machine Learning are being used to analyse complex data. However, the performance and explainability of these models within practical critical systems requires a rigorous and continuous verification of their safe utilisation. Working towards addressing this challenge, this paper presents a principled novel safety argument framework for critical systems that utilise deep neural networks. The approach allows various forms of predictions, e.g., future reliability of passing some demands, or confidence on a required reliability level. It is supported by a Bayesian analysis using operational data and the recent verification and validation techniques for deep learning. The prediction is conservative -- it starts with partial prior knowledge obtained from lifecycle activities and then determines the worst-case prediction. Open challenges are also identified.

Accurately predicting the criticalness of ICU patients (such as in-ICU mortality risk) is vital for early intervention in critical care. However, conventional models often treat each patient in isolation and struggle to exploit the relational structure in Electronic Health Records (EHR). We propose a Similarity-Based Self-Construct Graph Model (SBSCGM) that dynamically builds a patient similarity graph from multi-modal EHR data, and a HybridGraphMedGNN architecture that operates on this graph to predict patient mortality and a continuous criticalness score. SBSCGM uses a hybrid similarity measure (combining feature-based and structural similarities) to connect patients with analogous clinical profiles in real-time. The HybridGraphMedGNN integrates Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), GraphSAGE, and Graph Attention Network (GAT) layers to learn robust patient representations, leveraging both local and global graph patterns. In experiments on 6,000 ICU stays from the MIMIC-III dataset, our model achieves state-of-the-art performance (AUC-ROC 0.94) outperforming baseline classifiers and single-type GNN models. We also demonstrate improved precision/recall and show that the attention mechanism provides interpretable insights into model predictions. Our framework offers a scalable and interpretable solution for critical care risk prediction, with potential to support clinicians in real-world ICU deployment.

We consider the Similarity Sketching problem: Given a universe [u] = {0,ldots, u-1} we want a random function S mapping subsets Asubseteq [u] into vectors S(A) of size t, such that the Jaccard similarity J(A,B) = |Acap B|/|Acup B| between sets A and B is preserved. More precisely, define X_i = [S(A)[i] = S(B)[i]] and X = sum_{iin [t]} X_i. We want E[X_i]=J(A,B), and we want X to be strongly concentrated around E[X] = t cdot J(A,B) (i.e. Chernoff-style bounds). This is a fundamental problem which has found numerous applications in data mining, large-scale classification, computer vision, similarity search, etc. via the classic MinHash algorithm. The vectors S(A) are also called sketches. Strong concentration is critical, for often we want to sketch many sets B_1,ldots,B_n so that we later, for a query set A, can find (one of) the most similar B_i. It is then critical that no B_i looks much more similar to A due to errors in the sketch. The seminal ttimesMinHash algorithm uses t random hash functions h_1,ldots, h_t, and stores left ( min_{ain A} h_1(A),ldots, min_{ain A} h_t(A) right ) as the sketch of A. The main drawback of MinHash is, however, its O(tcdot |A|) running time, and finding a sketch with similar properties and faster running time has been the subject of several papers. (continued...)

We developed an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) early warning score (xAI-EWS) system for early detection of acute critical illness. While maintaining a high predictive performance, our system explains to the clinician on which relevant electronic health records (EHRs) data the prediction is grounded. Acute critical illness is often preceded by deterioration of routinely measured clinical parameters, e.g., blood pressure and heart rate. Early clinical prediction is typically based on manually calculated screening metrics that simply weigh these parameters, such as Early Warning Scores (EWS). The predictive performance of EWSs yields a tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity that can lead to negative outcomes for the patient. Previous work on EHR-trained AI systems offers promising results with high levels of predictive performance in relation to the early, real-time prediction of acute critical illness. However, without insight into the complex decisions by such system, clinical translation is hindered. In this letter, we present our xAI-EWS system, which potentiates clinical translation by accompanying a prediction with information on the EHR data explaining it.

We study the scaling properties of avalanche activity in the two-dimensional Abelian sandpile model. Instead of the conventional avalanche size distribution, we analyze the site activity distribution, which measures how often a site participates in avalanches when grains are added across the lattice. Using numerical simulations for system sizes up to \(L = 160\), averaged over \(10^4\) configurations, we determine the probability distribution \(P(A, L)\) of site activities. The results show that \(P(A, L)\) follows a finite-size scaling form \[ P(A, L) \sim L^{-2} F\Big(A{L^2}\Big). \] For small values \(A \ll L^2\) the scaling function behaves as \[ F(u) \sim u^{-1/2}, \quad corresponding to \quad P(A) \sim 1{L}, \] while for large activities \(A \sim O(L^2)\) the distribution decays as \[ F(u) \sim \exp\big(-c_3 u - c_4 u^2\big). \] The crossover between these two regimes occurs at \[ A^* \sim 0.1 \, L^2, \] marking the threshold between typical and highly excitable sites. This characterization of local avalanche activity provides complementary information to the usual avalanche size statistics, highlighting how local regions serve as frequent conduits for critical dynamics. These results may help connect sandpile models to real-world self-organized critical systems where only partial local activity can be observed.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

We construct holographic superconductors from Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton gravity in 3+1 dimensions with two adjustable couplings alpha and the charge q carried by the scalar field. For the values of alpha and q we consider, there is always a critical temperature at which a second order phase transition occurs between a hairy black hole and the AdS RN black hole in the canonical ensemble, which can be identified with the superconducting phase transition of the dual field theory. We calculate the electric conductivity of the dual superconductor and find that for the values of alpha and q where alpha/q is small the dual superconductor has similar properties to the minimal model, while for the values of alpha and q where alpha/q is large enough, the electric conductivity of the dual superconductor exhibits novel properties at low frequencies where it shows a "Drude Peak" in the real part of the conductivity.

Recent experiments on 2D superconductors allow the characterization of the critical temperature and of the phase diagram across the BCS-BEC crossover as a function of density. We obtain from these experiments the microscopic parameters of the superconducting state at low temperatures by the BCS mean-field approach. For Li_xZrNCl, the extracted parameters are used to evaluate the superconducting phase stiffness and the Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT) critical temperature throughout the BCS-BEC crossover, by implementing the corresponding Renormalization Group (RG) approach. In this way, we make a quantitative test of the predictive power of the BKT theory for evaluating the critical temperature. The RG flow equations turn out to give a sizable renormalization of the phase stiffness and of the critical temperature, which is crucial to obtain a satisfactory agreement between the BKT theory and the experiments, in particular in the BCS-BEC crossover regime. We predict the temperature range where phase stiffness renormalization can be measured in Li_xZrNCl across the BCS-BEC crossover. Contrary to other microscopic theories of superconductivity, we find that the BKT theory can be exploited to evaluate quantitatively the critical temperature of 2D superconductors in different pairing regimes.

The observed cosmological constant may originate as the minimum value U_{min} of a scalar field potential, where the scalar field is frozen due to a large mass. If this vacuum is metastable, it may decay to a true vacuum either at present or in the future. Assuming its decay rate Gamma is comparable to the Hubble expansion rate H_0, we estimate the scale of true vacuum bubbles and analyze their evolution. We find that their initial formation scale is sub-millimeter and their tension causes rapid collapse if m gtrsim 1.7 cdot 10^{-3}, eV. For smaller masses, the bubbles expand at the speed of light. We extend our analysis to scalar-tensor theories with non-minimal coupling, finding that the nucleation scale of gravitational constant bubbles remains consistent with the sub-millimeter regime of General Relativity. The critical mass scale remains around 10^{-3},eV. A theoretical estimate at redshift z_{obs} sim 0.01 suggests an observable bubble radius of sim 50 Mpc, implying a gravitational transition triggered sim 300 Myr ago, with a present-day size approaching 100 Mpc. Additionally, we explore mass ranges (m < 10^{-3},eV) and non-minimal coupling xi ranges (10^{-8},eV^{2-n} - 10^{-1},eV^{2-n}) that lead to a variation Delta G/G_N within the 1%-7% range. We assume non-minimal coupling of the form F(phi)=1/kappa - xi phi^n, with kappa=8pi G_N and 2 leq n leq 9. Finally, we review various local physics or/and transition based proposed solutions to the Hubble tension, including ultra-late-time transitional models (z sim 0.01), screened fifth-force mechanisms, and the Lambda_{rm s}CDM model, which features a transition at z sim 2. We discuss observational hints supporting these scenarios and the theoretical challenges they face.

The Earth's atmosphere is an aerosol, it contains suspended particles. When air flows over an obstacle such as an aircraft wing or tree branch, these particles may not follow the same paths as the air flowing around the obstacle. Instead the particles in the air may deviate from the path of the air and so collide with the surface of the obstacle. It is known that particle inertia can drive this deposition, and that there is a critical value of this inertia, below which no point particles deposit. Particle inertia is measured by the Stokes number, St. We show that near the critical value of the Stokes number, St_c, the amount of deposition has the unusual scaling law of exp(-1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}). The scaling is controlled by the stagnation point of the flow. This scaling is determined by the time for the particle to reach the surface of the cylinder varying as 1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}, together with the distance away from the stagnation point (perpendicular to the flow direction) increasing exponentially with time. The scaling law applies to inviscid flow, a model for flow at high Reynolds numbers. The unusual scaling means that the amount of particles deposited increases only very slowly above the critical Stokes number. This has consequences for applications ranging from rime formation and fog harvesting to pollination.