Daily Papers

Deep neural networks have been extensively applied in the medical domain for various tasks, including image classification, segmentation, and landmark detection. However, their application is often hindered by data scarcity, both in terms of available annotations and images. This study introduces a novel application of denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) to the landmark detection task, specifically addressing the challenge of limited annotated data in x-ray imaging. Our key innovation lies in leveraging DDPMs for self-supervised pre-training in landmark detection, a previously unexplored approach in this domain. This method enables accurate landmark detection with minimal annotated training data (as few as 50 images), surpassing both ImageNet supervised pre-training and traditional self-supervised techniques across three popular x-ray benchmark datasets. To our knowledge, this work represents the first application of diffusion models for self-supervised learning in landmark detection, which may offer a valuable pre-training approach in few-shot regimes, for mitigating data scarcity.

Recent vision-language models outperform vision-only models on many image classification tasks. However, because of the absence of paired text/image descriptions, it remains difficult to fine-tune these models for fine-grained image classification. In this work, we propose a method, GIST, for generating image-specific fine-grained text descriptions from image-only datasets, and show that these text descriptions can be used to improve classification. Key parts of our method include 1. prompting a pretrained large language model with domain-specific prompts to generate diverse fine-grained text descriptions for each class and 2. using a pretrained vision-language model to match each image to label-preserving text descriptions that capture relevant visual features in the image. We demonstrate the utility of GIST by fine-tuning vision-language models on the image-and-generated-text pairs to learn an aligned vision-language representation space for improved classification. We evaluate our learned representation space in full-shot and few-shot scenarios across four diverse fine-grained classification datasets, each from a different domain. Our method achieves an average improvement of 4.1% in accuracy over CLIP linear probes and an average of 1.1% improvement in accuracy over the previous state-of-the-art image-text classification method on the full-shot datasets. Our method achieves similar improvements across few-shot regimes. Code is available at https://github.com/emu1729/GIST.

The industry is rich in cases when we are required to make forecasting for large amounts of time series at once. However, we might be in a situation where we can not afford to train a separate model for each of them. Such issue in time series modeling remains without due attention. The remedy for this setting is the establishment of a foundation model. Such a model is expected to work in zero-shot and few-shot regimes. However, what should we take as a training dataset for such kind of model? Witnessing the benefits from the enrichment of NLP datasets with artificially-generated data, we might want to adopt their experience for time series. In contrast to natural language, the process of generation of synthetic time series data is even more favorable because it provides full control of series patterns, time horizons, and number of samples. In this work, we consider the essential question if it is advantageous to train a foundation model on synthetic data or it is better to utilize only a limited number of real-life examples. Our experiments are conducted only for regular time series and speak in favor of leveraging solely the real time series. Moreover, the choice of the proper source dataset strongly influences the performance during inference. When provided access even to a limited quantity of short time series data, employing it within a supervised framework yields more favorable results than training on a larger volume of synthetic data. The code for our experiments is publicly available on Github https://github.com/sb-ai-lab/synthesize_or_not.

Image generation abilities of text-to-image diffusion models have significantly advanced, yielding highly photo-realistic images from descriptive text and increasing the viability of leveraging synthetic images to train computer vision models. To serve as effective training data, generated images must be highly realistic while also sufficiently diverse within the support of the target data distribution. Yet, state-of-the-art conditional image generation models have been primarily optimized for creative applications, prioritizing image realism and prompt adherence over conditional diversity. In this paper, we investigate how to improve the diversity of generated images with the goal of increasing their effectiveness to train downstream image classification models, without fine-tuning the image generation model. We find that conditioning the generation process on an augmented real image and text prompt produces generations that serve as effective synthetic datasets for downstream training. Conditioning on real training images contextualizes the generation process to produce images that are in-domain with the real image distribution, while data augmentations introduce visual diversity that improves the performance of the downstream classifier. We validate augmentation-conditioning on a total of five established long-tail and few-shot image classification benchmarks and show that leveraging augmentations to condition the generation process results in consistent improvements over the state-of-the-art on the long-tailed benchmark and remarkable gains in extreme few-shot regimes of the remaining four benchmarks. These results constitute an important step towards effectively leveraging synthetic data for downstream training.

This paper introduces a new suite of question answering datasets for Norwegian; NorOpenBookQA, NorCommonSenseQA, NorTruthfulQA, and NRK-Quiz-QA. The data covers a wide range of skills and knowledge domains, including world knowledge, commonsense reasoning, truthfulness, and knowledge about Norway. Covering both of the written standards of Norwegian - Bokm{\aa}l and Nynorsk - our datasets comprise over 10k question-answer pairs, created by native speakers. We detail our dataset creation approach and present the results of evaluating 11 language models (LMs) in zero- and few-shot regimes. Most LMs perform better in Bokm{\aa}l than Nynorsk, struggle most with commonsense reasoning, and are often untruthful in generating answers to questions. All our datasets and annotation materials are publicly available.

We introduce Tinker, a versatile framework for high-fidelity 3D editing that operates in both one-shot and few-shot regimes without any per-scene finetuning. Unlike prior techniques that demand extensive per-scene optimization to ensure multi-view consistency or to produce dozens of consistent edited input views, Tinker delivers robust, multi-view consistent edits from as few as one or two images. This capability stems from repurposing pretrained diffusion models, which unlocks their latent 3D awareness. To drive research in this space, we curate the first large-scale multi-view editing dataset and data pipeline, spanning diverse scenes and styles. Building on this dataset, we develop our framework capable of generating multi-view consistent edited views without per-scene training, which consists of two novel components: (1) Referring multi-view editor: Enables precise, reference-driven edits that remain coherent across all viewpoints. (2) Any-view-to-video synthesizer: Leverages spatial-temporal priors from video diffusion to perform high-quality scene completion and novel-view generation even from sparse inputs. Through extensive experiments, Tinker significantly reduces the barrier to generalizable 3D content creation, achieving state-of-the-art performance on editing, novel-view synthesis, and rendering enhancement tasks. We believe that Tinker represents a key step towards truly scalable, zero-shot 3D editing. Project webpage: https://aim-uofa.github.io/Tinker

Foundation vision-language models are currently transforming computer vision, and are on the rise in medical imaging fueled by their very promising generalization capabilities. However, the initial attempts to transfer this new paradigm to medical imaging have shown less impressive performances than those observed in other domains, due to the significant domain shift and the complex, expert domain knowledge inherent to medical-imaging tasks. Motivated by the need for domain-expert foundation models, we present FLAIR, a pre-trained vision-language model for universal retinal fundus image understanding. To this end, we compiled 37 open-access, mostly categorical fundus imaging datasets from various sources, with up to 97 different target conditions and 284,660 images. We integrate the expert's domain knowledge in the form of descriptive textual prompts, during both pre-training and zero-shot inference, enhancing the less-informative categorical supervision of the data. Such a textual expert's knowledge, which we compiled from the relevant clinical literature and community standards, describes the fine-grained features of the pathologies as well as the hierarchies and dependencies between them. We report comprehensive evaluations, which illustrate the benefit of integrating expert knowledge and the strong generalization capabilities of FLAIR under difficult scenarios with domain shifts or unseen categories. When adapted with a lightweight linear probe, FLAIR outperforms fully-trained, dataset-focused models, more so in the few-shot regimes. Interestingly, FLAIR outperforms by a large margin more generalist, larger-scale image-language models, which emphasizes the potential of embedding experts' domain knowledge and the limitations of generalist models in medical imaging.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

Remote Sensing Vision-Language Models (RSVLMs) have shown remarkable potential thanks to large-scale pretraining, achieving strong zero-shot performance on various tasks. However, their ability to generalize in low-data regimes, such as few-shot learning, remains insufficiently explored. In this work, we present the first structured benchmark for evaluating few-shot adaptation methods on RSVLMs. We conduct comprehensive experiments across ten remote sensing scene classification datasets, applying five widely used few-shot adaptation strategies to three state-of-the-art RSVLMs with varying backbones. Our findings reveal that models with similar zero-shot performance can exhibit markedly different behavior under few-shot adaptation, with some RSVLMs being inherently more amenable to such adaptation than others. The variability of performance and the absence of a clear winner among existing methods highlight the need for the development of more robust methods for few-shot adaptation tailored to RS. To facilitate future research, we provide a reproducible benchmarking framework and open-source code to systematically evaluate RSVLMs under few-shot conditions. The source code is publicly available on Github: https://github.com/elkhouryk/fewshot_RSVLMs

Few-Shot Learning (FSL) aims to improve a model's generalization capability in low data regimes. Recent FSL works have made steady progress via metric learning, meta learning, representation learning, etc. However, FSL remains challenging due to the following longstanding difficulties. 1) The seen and unseen classes are disjoint, resulting in a distribution shift between training and testing. 2) During testing, labeled data of previously unseen classes is sparse, making it difficult to reliably extrapolate from labeled support examples to unlabeled query examples. To tackle the first challenge, we introduce Hybrid Consistency Training to jointly leverage interpolation consistency, including interpolating hidden features, that imposes linear behavior locally and data augmentation consistency that learns robust embeddings against sample variations. As for the second challenge, we use unlabeled examples to iteratively normalize features and adapt prototypes, as opposed to commonly used one-time update, for more reliable prototype-based transductive inference. We show that our method generates a 2% to 5% improvement over the state-of-the-art methods with similar backbones on five FSL datasets and, more notably, a 7% to 8% improvement for more challenging cross-domain FSL.

Recent prompt-based approaches allow pretrained language models to achieve strong performances on few-shot finetuning by reformulating downstream tasks as a language modeling problem. In this work, we demonstrate that, despite its advantages on low data regimes, finetuned prompt-based models for sentence pair classification tasks still suffer from a common pitfall of adopting inference heuristics based on lexical overlap, e.g., models incorrectly assuming a sentence pair is of the same meaning because they consist of the same set of words. Interestingly, we find that this particular inference heuristic is significantly less present in the zero-shot evaluation of the prompt-based model, indicating how finetuning can be destructive to useful knowledge learned during the pretraining. We then show that adding a regularization that preserves pretraining weights is effective in mitigating this destructive tendency of few-shot finetuning. Our evaluation on three datasets demonstrates promising improvements on the three corresponding challenge datasets used to diagnose the inference heuristics.

Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) often rely on in-context learning (ICL) to perform new tasks with minimal supervision. However, ICL performance, especially in smaller LMMs, is inconsistent and does not always improve monotonically with increasing examples. We hypothesize that this occurs due to the LMM being overwhelmed by additional information present in the image embeddings, which is not required for the downstream task. To address this, we propose a meta-learning approach that provides an alternative for inducing few-shot capabilities in LMMs, using a fixed set of soft prompts that are distilled from task-relevant image features and can be adapted at test time using a few examples. To facilitate this distillation, we introduce an attention-mapper module that can be easily integrated with the popular LLaVA v1.5 architecture and is jointly learned with soft prompts, enabling task adaptation in LMMs under low-data regimes with just a few gradient steps. Evaluation on the VL-ICL Bench shows that our method consistently outperforms ICL and related prompt-tuning approaches, even under image perturbations, improving task induction and reasoning across visual question answering tasks.

Relation extraction systems require large amounts of labeled examples which are costly to annotate. In this work we reformulate relation extraction as an entailment task, with simple, hand-made, verbalizations of relations produced in less than 15 min per relation. The system relies on a pretrained textual entailment engine which is run as-is (no training examples, zero-shot) or further fine-tuned on labeled examples (few-shot or fully trained). In our experiments on TACRED we attain 63% F1 zero-shot, 69% with 16 examples per relation (17% points better than the best supervised system on the same conditions), and only 4 points short to the state-of-the-art (which uses 20 times more training data). We also show that the performance can be improved significantly with larger entailment models, up to 12 points in zero-shot, allowing to report the best results to date on TACRED when fully trained. The analysis shows that our few-shot systems are specially effective when discriminating between relations, and that the performance difference in low data regimes comes mainly from identifying no-relation cases.

Deep learning has revolutionized medical imaging, but its effectiveness is severely limited by insufficient labeled training data. This paper introduces a novel GAN-based semi-supervised learning framework specifically designed for low labeled-data regimes, evaluated across settings with 5 to 50 labeled samples per class. Our approach integrates three specialized neural networks -- a generator for class-conditioned image translation, a discriminator for authenticity assessment and classification, and a dedicated classifier -- within a three-phase training framework. The method alternates between supervised training on limited labeled data and unsupervised learning that leverages abundant unlabeled images through image-to-image translation rather than generation from noise. We employ ensemble-based pseudo-labeling that combines confidence-weighted predictions from the discriminator and classifier with temporal consistency through exponential moving averaging, enabling reliable label estimation for unlabeled data. Comprehensive evaluation across eleven MedMNIST datasets demonstrates that our approach achieves statistically significant improvements over six state-of-the-art GAN-based semi-supervised methods, with particularly strong performance in the extreme 5-shot setting where the scarcity of labeled data is most challenging. The framework maintains its superiority across all evaluated settings (5, 10, 20, and 50 shots per class). Our approach offers a practical solution for medical imaging applications where annotation costs are prohibitive, enabling robust classification performance even with minimal labeled data. Code is available at https://github.com/GuidoManni/SPARSE.

Current methods for low- and few-shot object detection have primarily focused on enhancing model performance for detecting objects. One common approach to achieve this is by combining model finetuning with data augmentation strategies. However, little attention has been given to the energy efficiency of these approaches in data-scarce regimes. This paper seeks to conduct a comprehensive empirical study that examines both model performance and energy efficiency of custom data augmentations and automated data augmentation selection strategies when combined with a lightweight object detector. The methods are evaluated in three different benchmark datasets in terms of their performance and energy consumption, and the Efficiency Factor is employed to gain insights into their effectiveness considering both performance and efficiency. Consequently, it is shown that in many cases, the performance gains of data augmentation strategies are overshadowed by their increased energy usage, necessitating the development of more energy efficient data augmentation strategies to address data scarcity.

Visual recognition in low-data regimes requires deep neural networks to learn generalized representations from limited training samples. Recently, CLIP-based methods have shown promising few-shot performance benefited from the contrastive language-image pre-training. We then question, if the more diverse pre-training knowledge can be cascaded to further assist few-shot representation learning. In this paper, we propose CaFo, a Cascade of Foundation models that incorporates diverse prior knowledge of various pre-training paradigms for better few-shot learning. Our CaFo incorporates CLIP's language-contrastive knowledge, DINO's vision-contrastive knowledge, DALL-E's vision-generative knowledge, and GPT-3's language-generative knowledge. Specifically, CaFo works by 'Prompt, Generate, then Cache'. Firstly, we leverage GPT-3 to produce textual inputs for prompting CLIP with rich downstream linguistic semantics. Then, we generate synthetic images via DALL-E to expand the few-shot training data without any manpower. At last, we introduce a learnable cache model to adaptively blend the predictions from CLIP and DINO. By such collaboration, CaFo can fully unleash the potential of different pre-training methods and unify them to perform state-of-the-art for few-shot classification. Code is available at https://github.com/ZrrSkywalker/CaFo.

A large-scale deep model pre-trained on massive labeled or unlabeled data transfers well to downstream tasks. Linear evaluation freezes parameters in the pre-trained model and trains a linear classifier separately, which is efficient and attractive for transfer. However, little work has investigated the classifier in linear evaluation except for the default logistic regression. Inspired by the statistical efficiency of naive Bayes, the paper revisits the classical topic on discriminative vs. generative classifiers. Theoretically, the paper considers the surrogate loss instead of the zero-one loss in analyses and generalizes the classical results from binary cases to multiclass ones. We show that, under mild assumptions, multiclass naive Bayes requires O(log n) samples to approach its asymptotic error while the corresponding multiclass logistic regression requires O(n) samples, where n is the feature dimension. To establish it, we present a multiclass H-consistency bound framework and an explicit bound for logistic loss, which are of independent interests. Simulation results on a mixture of Gaussian validate our theoretical findings. Experiments on various pre-trained deep vision models show that naive Bayes consistently converges faster as the number of data increases. Besides, naive Bayes shows promise in few-shot cases and we observe the "two regimes" phenomenon in pre-trained supervised models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/Revisiting-Dis-vs-Gen-Classifiers.

Building conversational systems in new domains and with added functionality requires resource-efficient models that work under low-data regimes (i.e., in few-shot setups). Motivated by these requirements, we introduce intent detection methods backed by pretrained dual sentence encoders such as USE and ConveRT. We demonstrate the usefulness and wide applicability of the proposed intent detectors, showing that: 1) they outperform intent detectors based on fine-tuning the full BERT-Large model or using BERT as a fixed black-box encoder on three diverse intent detection data sets; 2) the gains are especially pronounced in few-shot setups (i.e., with only 10 or 30 annotated examples per intent); 3) our intent detectors can be trained in a matter of minutes on a single CPU; and 4) they are stable across different hyperparameter settings. In hope of facilitating and democratizing research focused on intention detection, we release our code, as well as a new challenging single-domain intent detection dataset comprising 13,083 annotated examples over 77 intents.

Multiple Sequence Alignment (MSA) plays a pivotal role in unveiling the evolutionary trajectories of protein families. The accuracy of protein structure predictions is often compromised for protein sequences that lack sufficient homologous information to construct high quality MSA. Although various methods have been proposed to generate virtual MSA under these conditions, they fall short in comprehensively capturing the intricate coevolutionary patterns within MSA or require guidance from external oracle models. Here we introduce MSAGPT, a novel approach to prompt protein structure predictions via MSA generative pretraining in the low MSA regime. MSAGPT employs a simple yet effective 2D evolutionary positional encoding scheme to model complex evolutionary patterns. Endowed by this, its flexible 1D MSA decoding framework facilitates zero or few shot learning. Moreover, we demonstrate that leveraging the feedback from AlphaFold2 can further enhance the model capacity via Rejective Fine tuning (RFT) and Reinforcement Learning from AF2 Feedback (RLAF). Extensive experiments confirm the efficacy of MSAGPT in generating faithful virtual MSA to enhance the structure prediction accuracy. The transfer learning capabilities also highlight its great potential for facilitating other protein tasks.

Several recent works seek to develop foundation models specifically for medical applications, adapting general-purpose large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) via continued pretraining on publicly available biomedical corpora. These works typically claim that such domain-adaptive pretraining (DAPT) improves performance on downstream medical tasks, such as answering medical licensing exam questions. In this paper, we compare ten public "medical" LLMs and two VLMs against their corresponding base models, arriving at a different conclusion: all medical VLMs and nearly all medical LLMs fail to consistently improve over their base models in the zero-/few-shot prompting and supervised fine-tuning regimes for medical question-answering (QA). For instance, across all tasks and model pairs we consider in the 3-shot setting, medical LLMs only outperform their base models in 22.7% of cases, reach a (statistical) tie in 36.8% of cases, and are significantly worse than their base models in the remaining 40.5% of cases. Our conclusions are based on (i) comparing each medical model head-to-head, directly against the corresponding base model; (ii) optimizing the prompts for each model separately in zero-/few-shot prompting; and (iii) accounting for statistical uncertainty in comparisons. While these basic practices are not consistently adopted in the literature, our ablations show that they substantially impact conclusions. Meanwhile, we find that after fine-tuning on specific QA tasks, medical LLMs can show performance improvements, but the benefits do not carry over to tasks based on clinical notes. Our findings suggest that state-of-the-art general-domain models may already exhibit strong medical knowledge and reasoning capabilities, and offer recommendations to strengthen the conclusions of future studies.

This paper explores the limits of the current generation of large language models for program synthesis in general purpose programming languages. We evaluate a collection of such models (with between 244M and 137B parameters) on two new benchmarks, MBPP and MathQA-Python, in both the few-shot and fine-tuning regimes. Our benchmarks are designed to measure the ability of these models to synthesize short Python programs from natural language descriptions. The Mostly Basic Programming Problems (MBPP) dataset contains 974 programming tasks, designed to be solvable by entry-level programmers. The MathQA-Python dataset, a Python version of the MathQA benchmark, contains 23914 problems that evaluate the ability of the models to synthesize code from more complex text. On both datasets, we find that synthesis performance scales log-linearly with model size. Our largest models, even without finetuning on a code dataset, can synthesize solutions to 59.6 percent of the problems from MBPP using few-shot learning with a well-designed prompt. Fine-tuning on a held-out portion of the dataset improves performance by about 10 percentage points across most model sizes. On the MathQA-Python dataset, the largest fine-tuned model achieves 83.8 percent accuracy. Going further, we study the model's ability to engage in dialog about code, incorporating human feedback to improve its solutions. We find that natural language feedback from a human halves the error rate compared to the model's initial prediction. Additionally, we conduct an error analysis to shed light on where these models fall short and what types of programs are most difficult to generate. Finally, we explore the semantic grounding of these models by fine-tuning them to predict the results of program execution. We find that even our best models are generally unable to predict the output of a program given a specific input.

In modern large-scale deep learning, a prevalent and effective workflow for solving low-data problems is adapting powerful pre-trained foundation models (FMs) to new tasks via parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT). However, while empirically effective, the resulting solutions lack generalisation guarantees to certify their accuracy - which may be required for ethical or legal reasons prior to deployment in high-importance applications. In this paper we develop a novel transfer learning approach that is designed to facilitate non-vacuous learning theoretic generalisation guarantees for downstream tasks, even in the low-shot regime. Specifically, we first use upstream tasks to train a distribution over PEFT parameters. We then learn the downstream task by a sample-and-evaluate procedure -- sampling plausible PEFTs from the trained diffusion model and selecting the one with the highest likelihood on the downstream data. Crucially, this confines our model hypothesis to a finite set of PEFT samples. In contrast to learning in the typical continuous hypothesis spaces of neural network weights, this facilitates tighter risk certificates. We instantiate our bound and show non-trivial generalization guarantees compared to existing learning approaches which lead to vacuous bounds in the low-shot regime.

Deep features are a cornerstone of computer vision research, capturing image semantics and enabling the community to solve downstream tasks even in the zero- or few-shot regime. However, these features often lack the spatial resolution to directly perform dense prediction tasks like segmentation and depth prediction because models aggressively pool information over large areas. In this work, we introduce FeatUp, a task- and model-agnostic framework to restore lost spatial information in deep features. We introduce two variants of FeatUp: one that guides features with high-resolution signal in a single forward pass, and one that fits an implicit model to a single image to reconstruct features at any resolution. Both approaches use a multi-view consistency loss with deep analogies to NeRFs. Our features retain their original semantics and can be swapped into existing applications to yield resolution and performance gains even without re-training. We show that FeatUp significantly outperforms other feature upsampling and image super-resolution approaches in class activation map generation, transfer learning for segmentation and depth prediction, and end-to-end training for semantic segmentation.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive abilities in data annotation, opening the way for new approaches to solve classic NLP problems. In this paper, we show how to use LLMs to create NuNER, a compact language representation model specialized in the Named Entity Recognition (NER) task. NuNER can be fine-tuned to solve downstream NER problems in a data-efficient way, outperforming similar-sized foundation models in the few-shot regime and competing with much larger LLMs. We find that the size and entity-type diversity of the pre-training dataset are key to achieving good performance. We view NuNER as a member of the broader family of task-specific foundation models, recently unlocked by LLMs.

Large pre-trained language models perform remarkably well on tasks that can be done "in one pass", such as generating realistic text or synthesizing computer programs. However, they struggle with tasks that require unbounded multi-step computation, such as adding integers or executing programs. Surprisingly, we find that these same models are able to perform complex multi-step computations -- even in the few-shot regime -- when asked to perform the operation "step by step", showing the results of intermediate computations. In particular, we train transformers to perform multi-step computations by asking them to emit intermediate computation steps into a "scratchpad". On a series of increasingly complex tasks ranging from long addition to the execution of arbitrary programs, we show that scratchpads dramatically improve the ability of language models to perform multi-step computations.

Several recent works seek to develop foundation models specifically for medical applications, adapting general-purpose large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) via continued pretraining on publicly available biomedical corpora. These works typically claim that such domain-adaptive pretraining (DAPT) improves performance on downstream medical tasks, such as answering medical licensing exam questions. In this paper, we compare seven public "medical" LLMs and two VLMs against their corresponding base models, arriving at a different conclusion: all medical VLMs and nearly all medical LLMs fail to consistently improve over their base models in the zero-/few-shot prompting regime for medical question-answering (QA) tasks. For instance, across the tasks and model pairs we consider in the 3-shot setting, medical LLMs only outperform their base models in 12.1% of cases, reach a (statistical) tie in 49.8% of cases, and are significantly worse than their base models in the remaining 38.2% of cases. Our conclusions are based on (i) comparing each medical model head-to-head, directly against the corresponding base model; (ii) optimizing the prompts for each model separately; and (iii) accounting for statistical uncertainty in comparisons. While these basic practices are not consistently adopted in the literature, our ablations show that they substantially impact conclusions. Our findings suggest that state-of-the-art general-domain models may already exhibit strong medical knowledge and reasoning capabilities, and offer recommendations to strengthen the conclusions of future studies.

Cross-lingual semantic parsing transfers parsing capability from a high-resource language (e.g., English) to low-resource languages with scarce training data. Previous work has primarily considered silver-standard data augmentation or zero-shot methods, however, exploiting few-shot gold data is comparatively unexplored. We propose a new approach to cross-lingual semantic parsing by explicitly minimizing cross-lingual divergence between probabilistic latent variables using Optimal Transport. We demonstrate how this direct guidance improves parsing from natural languages using fewer examples and less training. We evaluate our method on two datasets, MTOP and MultiATIS++SQL, establishing state-of-the-art results under a few-shot cross-lingual regime. Ablation studies further reveal that our method improves performance even without parallel input translations. In addition, we show that our model better captures cross-lingual structure in the latent space to improve semantic representation similarity.

Visual anomaly classification and segmentation are vital for automating industrial quality inspection. The focus of prior research in the field has been on training custom models for each quality inspection task, which requires task-specific images and annotation. In this paper we move away from this regime, addressing zero-shot and few-normal-shot anomaly classification and segmentation. Recently CLIP, a vision-language model, has shown revolutionary generality with competitive zero-/few-shot performance in comparison to full-supervision. But CLIP falls short on anomaly classification and segmentation tasks. Hence, we propose window-based CLIP (WinCLIP) with (1) a compositional ensemble on state words and prompt templates and (2) efficient extraction and aggregation of window/patch/image-level features aligned with text. We also propose its few-normal-shot extension WinCLIP+, which uses complementary information from normal images. In MVTec-AD (and VisA), without further tuning, WinCLIP achieves 91.8%/85.1% (78.1%/79.6%) AUROC in zero-shot anomaly classification and segmentation while WinCLIP+ does 93.1%/95.2% (83.8%/96.4%) in 1-normal-shot, surpassing state-of-the-art by large margins.

Recent advances in long-context large language models (LLMs) have led to the emerging paradigm of many-shot in-context learning (ICL), where it is observed that scaling many more demonstrating examples beyond the conventional few-shot setup in the context can lead to performance benefits. However, despite its promise, it is unclear what aspects dominate the benefits and whether simply scaling to more examples is the most effective way of improving many-shot ICL. In this work, we first provide an analysis of the factors driving many-shot ICL, and we find that 1) many-shot performance can still be attributed to often a few disproportionately influential examples and 2) identifying such influential examples ("optimize") and using them as demonstrations to regenerate new examples ("generate") can lead to further improvements. Inspired by the findings, we propose BRIDGE, an algorithm that alternates between the optimize step with Bayesian optimization to discover the influential sets of examples and the generate step to reuse this set to expand the reasoning paths of the examples back to the many-shot regime automatically. On Gemini, Claude, and Mistral LLMs of different sizes, we show that BRIDGE to significant improvements across a diverse set of tasks, including symbolic reasoning, numerical reasoning, and code generation.

We propose prototypical networks for the problem of few-shot classification, where a classifier must generalize to new classes not seen in the training set, given only a small number of examples of each new class. Prototypical networks learn a metric space in which classification can be performed by computing distances to prototype representations of each class. Compared to recent approaches for few-shot learning, they reflect a simpler inductive bias that is beneficial in this limited-data regime, and achieve excellent results. We provide an analysis showing that some simple design decisions can yield substantial improvements over recent approaches involving complicated architectural choices and meta-learning. We further extend prototypical networks to zero-shot learning and achieve state-of-the-art results on the CU-Birds dataset.

Domain adaptation of GANs is a problem of fine-tuning the state-of-the-art GAN models (e.g. StyleGAN) pretrained on a large dataset to a specific domain with few samples (e.g. painting faces, sketches, etc.). While there are a great number of methods that tackle this problem in different ways, there are still many important questions that remain unanswered. In this paper, we provide a systematic and in-depth analysis of the domain adaptation problem of GANs, focusing on the StyleGAN model. First, we perform a detailed exploration of the most important parts of StyleGAN that are responsible for adapting the generator to a new domain depending on the similarity between the source and target domains. As a result of this in-depth study, we propose new efficient and lightweight parameterizations of StyleGAN for domain adaptation. Particularly, we show there exist directions in StyleSpace (StyleDomain directions) that are sufficient for adapting to similar domains and they can be reduced further. For dissimilar domains, we propose Affine+ and AffineLight+ parameterizations that allows us to outperform existing baselines in few-shot adaptation with low data regime. Finally, we examine StyleDomain directions and discover their many surprising properties that we apply for domain mixing and cross-domain image morphing.

The training of modern large language models (LLMs) takes place in a regime where most training examples are seen only a few times by the model during the course of training. What does a model remember about such examples seen only a few times during training and how long does that memory persist in the face of continuous training with new examples? Here, we investigate these questions through simple recognition, recall, and retention experiments with LLMs. In recognition experiments, we ask if the model can distinguish the seen example from a novel example; in recall experiments, we ask if the model can correctly recall the seen example when cued by a part of it; and in retention experiments, we periodically probe the model's memory for the original examples as the model is trained continuously with new examples. We find that a single exposure is generally sufficient for a model to achieve near perfect accuracy even in very challenging recognition experiments. We estimate that the recognition performance of even small language models easily exceeds human recognition performance reported in similar experiments with humans (Shepard, 1967). Achieving near perfect recall takes more exposures, but most models can do it in just 3 exposures. The flip side of this remarkable capacity for fast learning is that precise memories are quickly overwritten: recall performance for the original examples drops steeply over the first 10 training updates with new examples, followed by a more gradual decline. Even after 100K updates, however, some of the original examples are still recalled near perfectly. A qualitatively similar retention pattern has been observed in human long-term memory retention studies before (Bahrick, 1984). Finally, recognition is much more robust to interference than recall and memory for natural language sentences is generally superior to memory for stimuli without structure.

Several unsupervised image segmentation approaches have been proposed which eliminate the need for dense manually-annotated segmentation masks; current models separately handle either semantic segmentation (e.g., STEGO) or class-agnostic instance segmentation (e.g., CutLER), but not both (i.e., panoptic segmentation). We propose an Unsupervised Universal Segmentation model (U2Seg) adept at performing various image segmentation tasks -- instance, semantic and panoptic -- using a novel unified framework. U2Seg generates pseudo semantic labels for these segmentation tasks via leveraging self-supervised models followed by clustering; each cluster represents different semantic and/or instance membership of pixels. We then self-train the model on these pseudo semantic labels, yielding substantial performance gains over specialized methods tailored to each task: a +2.6 AP^{box} boost vs. CutLER in unsupervised instance segmentation on COCO and a +7.0 PixelAcc increase (vs. STEGO) in unsupervised semantic segmentation on COCOStuff. Moreover, our method sets up a new baseline for unsupervised panoptic segmentation, which has not been previously explored. U2Seg is also a strong pretrained model for few-shot segmentation, surpassing CutLER by +5.0 AP^{mask} when trained on a low-data regime, e.g., only 1% COCO labels. We hope our simple yet effective method can inspire more research on unsupervised universal image segmentation.

Pre-trained vision transformers have strong representation benefits to various downstream tasks. Recently, many parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods have been proposed, and their experiments demonstrate that tuning only 1% of extra parameters could surpass full fine-tuning in low-data resource scenarios. However, these methods overlook the task-specific information when fine-tuning diverse downstream tasks. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective method called "Salient Channel Tuning" (SCT) to leverage the task-specific information by forwarding the model with the task images to select partial channels in a feature map that enables us to tune only 1/8 channels leading to significantly lower parameter costs. Experiments outperform full fine-tuning on 18 out of 19 tasks in the VTAB-1K benchmark by adding only 0.11M parameters of the ViT-B, which is 780times fewer than its full fine-tuning counterpart. Furthermore, experiments on domain generalization and few-shot learning surpass other PEFT methods with lower parameter costs, demonstrating our proposed tuning technique's strong capability and effectiveness in the low-data regime.

We propose a novel multimodal video benchmark - the Perception Test - to evaluate the perception and reasoning skills of pre-trained multimodal models (e.g. Flamingo, BEiT-3, or GPT-4). Compared to existing benchmarks that focus on computational tasks (e.g. classification, detection or tracking), the Perception Test focuses on skills (Memory, Abstraction, Physics, Semantics) and types of reasoning (descriptive, explanatory, predictive, counterfactual) across video, audio, and text modalities, to provide a comprehensive and efficient evaluation tool. The benchmark probes pre-trained models for their transfer capabilities, in a zero-shot / few-shot or limited finetuning regime. For these purposes, the Perception Test introduces 11.6k real-world videos, 23s average length, designed to show perceptually interesting situations, filmed by around 100 participants worldwide. The videos are densely annotated with six types of labels (multiple-choice and grounded video question-answers, object and point tracks, temporal action and sound segments), enabling both language and non-language evaluations. The fine-tuning and validation splits of the benchmark are publicly available (CC-BY license), in addition to a challenge server with a held-out test split. Human baseline results compared to state-of-the-art video QA models show a significant gap in performance (91.4% vs 43.6%), suggesting that there is significant room for improvement in multimodal video understanding. Dataset, baselines code, and challenge server are available at https://github.com/deepmind/perception_test

Machine learning has been highly successful in data-intensive applications but is often hampered when the data set is small. Recently, Few-Shot Learning (FSL) is proposed to tackle this problem. Using prior knowledge, FSL can rapidly generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information. In this paper, we conduct a thorough survey to fully understand FSL. Starting from a formal definition of FSL, we distinguish FSL from several relevant machine learning problems. We then point out that the core issue in FSL is that the empirical risk minimized is unreliable. Based on how prior knowledge can be used to handle this core issue, we categorize FSL methods from three perspectives: (i) data, which uses prior knowledge to augment the supervised experience; (ii) model, which uses prior knowledge to reduce the size of the hypothesis space; and (iii) algorithm, which uses prior knowledge to alter the search for the best hypothesis in the given hypothesis space. With this taxonomy, we review and discuss the pros and cons of each category. Promising directions, in the aspects of the FSL problem setups, techniques, applications and theories, are also proposed to provide insights for future research.

We propose an algorithm for meta-learning that is model-agnostic, in the sense that it is compatible with any model trained with gradient descent and applicable to a variety of different learning problems, including classification, regression, and reinforcement learning. The goal of meta-learning is to train a model on a variety of learning tasks, such that it can solve new learning tasks using only a small number of training samples. In our approach, the parameters of the model are explicitly trained such that a small number of gradient steps with a small amount of training data from a new task will produce good generalization performance on that task. In effect, our method trains the model to be easy to fine-tune. We demonstrate that this approach leads to state-of-the-art performance on two few-shot image classification benchmarks, produces good results on few-shot regression, and accelerates fine-tuning for policy gradient reinforcement learning with neural network policies.

Few-shot learning aims to transfer the knowledge acquired from training on a diverse set of tasks to unseen tasks from the same task distribution with a limited amount of labeled data. The underlying requirement for effective few-shot generalization is to learn a good representation of the task manifold. This becomes more difficult when only a limited number of tasks are available for training. In such a few-task few-shot setting, it is beneficial to explicitly preserve the local neighborhoods from the task manifold and exploit this to generate artificial tasks for training. To this end, we introduce the notion of interval bounds from the provably robust training literature to few-shot learning. The interval bounds are used to characterize neighborhoods around the training tasks. These neighborhoods can then be preserved by minimizing the distance between a task and its respective bounds. We then use a novel strategy to artificially form new tasks for training by interpolating between the available tasks and their respective interval bounds. We apply our framework to both model-agnostic meta-learning as well as prototype-based metric-learning paradigms. The efficacy of our proposed approach is evident from the improved performance on several datasets from diverse domains compared to current methods.

The existing event classification (EC) work primarily focuseson the traditional supervised learning setting in which models are unableto extract event mentions of new/unseen event types. Few-shot learninghas not been investigated in this area although it enables EC models toextend their operation to unobserved event types. To fill in this gap, inthis work, we investigate event classification under the few-shot learningsetting. We propose a novel training method for this problem that exten-sively exploit the support set during the training process of a few-shotlearning model. In particular, in addition to matching the query exam-ple with those in the support set for training, we seek to further matchthe examples within the support set themselves. This method providesmore training signals for the models and can be applied to every metric-learning-based few-shot learning methods. Our extensive experiments ontwo benchmark EC datasets show that the proposed method can improvethe best reported few-shot learning models by up to 10% on accuracyfor event classification

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

We present the first evaluation harness that enables any out-of-the-box, local, Large Language Models (LLMs) to play full-press Diplomacy without fine-tuning or specialized training. Previous work required frontier LLMs, or fine-tuning, due to the high complexity and information density of Diplomacy's game state. Combined with the high variance of matches, these factors made Diplomacy prohibitive for study. In this work, we used data-driven iteration to optimize a textual game state representation such that a 24B model can reliably complete matches without any fine tuning. We develop tooling to facilitate hypothesis testing and statistical analysis, and we present case studies on persuasion, aggressive playstyles, and performance across a range of models. We conduct a variety of experiments across many popular LLMs, finding the larger models perform the best, but the smaller models still play adequately. We also introduce Critical State Analysis: an experimental protocol for rapidly iterating and analyzing key moments in a game at depth. Our harness democratizes the evaluation of strategic reasoning in LLMs by eliminating the need for fine-tuning, and it provides insights into how these capabilities emerge naturally from widely used LLMs. Our code is available in the supplement and will be open sourced.

We introduce rd-spiral, an open-source Python library for simulating 2D reaction-diffusion systems using pseudo-spectral methods. The framework combines FFT-based spatial discretization with adaptive Dormand-Prince time integration, achieving exponential convergence while maintaining pedagogical clarity. We analyze three dynamical regimes: stable spirals, spatiotemporal chaos, and pattern decay, revealing extreme non-Gaussian statistics (kurtosis >96) in stable states. Information-theoretic metrics show 10.7% reduction in activator-inhibitor coupling during turbulence versus 6.5% in stable regimes. The solver handles stiffness ratios >6:1 with features including automated equilibrium classification and checkpointing. Effect sizes (delta=0.37--0.78) distinguish regimes, with asymmetric field sensitivities to perturbations. By balancing computational rigor with educational transparency, rd-spiral bridges theoretical and practical nonlinear dynamics.

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are personalized, adaptive, multi-stage treatment plans that adapt treatment decisions both to an individual's initial features and to intermediate outcomes and features at each subsequent stage, which are affected by decisions in prior stages. Examples include personalized first- and second-line treatments of chronic conditions like diabetes, cancer, and depression, which adapt to patient response to first-line treatment, disease progression, and individual characteristics. While existing literature mostly focuses on estimating the optimal DTR from offline data such as from sequentially randomized trials, we study the problem of developing the optimal DTR in an online manner, where the interaction with each individual affect both our cumulative reward and our data collection for future learning. We term this the DTR bandit problem. We propose a novel algorithm that, by carefully balancing exploration and exploitation, is guaranteed to achieve rate-optimal regret when the transition and reward models are linear. We demonstrate our algorithm and its benefits both in synthetic experiments and in a case study of adaptive treatment of major depressive disorder using real-world data.

Few-shot classification with foundation models (e.g., CLIP, DINOv2, PaLM-2) enables users to build an accurate classifier with a few labeled training samples (called support samples) for a classification task. However, an attacker could perform data poisoning attacks by manipulating some support samples such that the classifier makes the attacker-desired, arbitrary prediction for a testing input. Empirical defenses cannot provide formal robustness guarantees, leading to a cat-and-mouse game between the attacker and defender. Existing certified defenses are designed for traditional supervised learning, resulting in sub-optimal performance when extended to few-shot classification. In our work, we propose FCert, the first certified defense against data poisoning attacks to few-shot classification. We show our FCert provably predicts the same label for a testing input under arbitrary data poisoning attacks when the total number of poisoned support samples is bounded. We perform extensive experiments on benchmark few-shot classification datasets with foundation models released by OpenAI, Meta, and Google in both vision and text domains. Our experimental results show our FCert: 1) maintains classification accuracy without attacks, 2) outperforms existing state-of-the-art certified defenses for data poisoning attacks, and 3) is efficient and general.

Temporal Difference (TD) algorithms are widely used in Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). Their performance is heavily influenced by the size of the neural network. While in supervised learning, the regime of over-parameterization and its benefits are well understood, the situation in RL is much less clear. In this paper, we present a theoretical analysis of the influence of network size and l_2-regularization on performance. We identify the ratio between the number of parameters and the number of visited states as a crucial factor and define over-parameterization as the regime when it is larger than one. Furthermore, we observe a double descent phenomenon, i.e., a sudden drop in performance around the parameter/state ratio of one. Leveraging random features and the lazy training regime, we study the regularized Least-Square Temporal Difference (LSTD) algorithm in an asymptotic regime, as both the number of parameters and states go to infinity, maintaining a constant ratio. We derive deterministic limits of both the empirical and the true Mean-Squared Bellman Error (MSBE) that feature correction terms responsible for the double descent. Correction terms vanish when the l_2-regularization is increased or the number of unvisited states goes to zero. Numerical experiments with synthetic and small real-world environments closely match the theoretical predictions.

Training a generative model with limited number of samples is a challenging task. Current methods primarily rely on few-shot model adaption to train the network. However, in scenarios where data is extremely limited (less than 10), the generative network tends to overfit and suffers from content degradation. To address these problems, we propose a novel phasic content fusing few-shot diffusion model with directional distribution consistency loss, which targets different learning objectives at distinct training stages of the diffusion model. Specifically, we design a phasic training strategy with phasic content fusion to help our model learn content and style information when t is large, and learn local details of target domain when t is small, leading to an improvement in the capture of content, style and local details. Furthermore, we introduce a novel directional distribution consistency loss that ensures the consistency between the generated and source distributions more efficiently and stably than the prior methods, preventing our model from overfitting. Finally, we propose a cross-domain structure guidance strategy that enhances structure consistency during domain adaptation. Theoretical analysis, qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate the superiority of our approach in few-shot generative model adaption tasks compared to state-of-the-art methods. The source code is available at: https://github.com/sjtuplayer/few-shot-diffusion.

In machine learning, generative modeling aims to learn to generate new data statistically similar to the training data distribution. In this paper, we survey learning generative models under limited data, few shots and zero shot, referred to as Generative Modeling under Data Constraint (GM-DC). This is an important topic when data acquisition is challenging, e.g. healthcare applications. We discuss background, challenges, and propose two taxonomies: one on GM-DC tasks and another on GM-DC approaches. Importantly, we study interactions between different GM-DC tasks and approaches. Furthermore, we highlight research gaps, research trends, and potential avenues for future exploration. Project website: https://gmdc-survey.github.io.

Few-step diffusion or flow-based generative models typically distill a velocity-predicting teacher into a student that predicts a shortcut towards denoised data. This format mismatch has led to complex distillation procedures that often suffer from a quality-diversity trade-off. To address this, we propose policy-based flow models (pi-Flow). pi-Flow modifies the output layer of a student flow model to predict a network-free policy at one timestep. The policy then produces dynamic flow velocities at future substeps with negligible overhead, enabling fast and accurate ODE integration on these substeps without extra network evaluations. To match the policy's ODE trajectory to the teacher's, we introduce a novel imitation distillation approach, which matches the policy's velocity to the teacher's along the policy's trajectory using a standard ell_2 flow matching loss. By simply mimicking the teacher's behavior, pi-Flow enables stable and scalable training and avoids the quality-diversity trade-off. On ImageNet 256^2, it attains a 1-NFE FID of 2.85, outperforming MeanFlow of the same DiT architecture. On FLUX.1-12B and Qwen-Image-20B at 4 NFEs, pi-Flow achieves substantially better diversity than state-of-the-art few-step methods, while maintaining teacher-level quality.

A central notion in practical and theoretical machine learning is that of a weak learner, classifiers that achieve better-than-random performance (on any given distribution over data), even by a small margin. Such weak learners form the practical basis for canonical machine learning methods such as boosting. In this work, we illustrate that prompt-based large language models can operate effectively as said weak learners. Specifically, we illustrate the use of a large language model (LLM) as a weak learner in a boosting algorithm applied to tabular data. We show that by providing (properly sampled according to the distribution of interest) text descriptions of tabular data samples, LLMs can produce a summary of the samples that serves as a template for classification and achieves the aim of acting as a weak learner on this task. We incorporate these models into a boosting approach, which in some settings can leverage the knowledge within the LLM to outperform traditional tree-based boosting. The model outperforms both few-shot learning and occasionally even more involved fine-tuning procedures, particularly for tasks involving small numbers of data points. The results illustrate the potential for prompt-based LLMs to function not just as few-shot learners themselves, but as components of larger machine learning pipelines.

The goal of few-shot learning is to generalize and achieve high performance on new unseen learning tasks, where each task has only a limited number of examples available. Gradient-based meta-learning attempts to address this challenging task by learning how to learn new tasks by embedding inductive biases informed by prior learning experiences into the components of the learning algorithm. In this work, we build upon prior research and propose Neural Procedural Bias Meta-Learning (NPBML), a novel framework designed to meta-learn task-adaptive procedural biases. Our approach aims to consolidate recent advancements in meta-learned initializations, optimizers, and loss functions by learning them simultaneously and making them adapt to each individual task to maximize the strength of the learned inductive biases. This imbues each learning task with a unique set of procedural biases which is specifically designed and selected to attain strong learning performance in only a few gradient steps. The experimental results show that by meta-learning the procedural biases of a neural network, we can induce strong inductive biases towards a distribution of learning tasks, enabling robust learning performance across many well-established few-shot learning benchmarks.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

A fundamental dilemma in generative modeling persists: iterative diffusion models achieve outstanding fidelity, but at a significant computational cost, while efficient few-step alternatives are constrained by a hard quality ceiling. This conflict between generation steps and output quality arises from restrictive training objectives that focus exclusively on either infinitesimal dynamics (PF-ODEs) or direct endpoint prediction. We address this challenge by introducing an exact, continuous-time dynamics equation that analytically defines state transitions across any finite time interval. This leads to a novel generative paradigm, Transition Models (TiM), which adapt to arbitrary-step transitions, seamlessly traversing the generative trajectory from single leaps to fine-grained refinement with more steps. Despite having only 865M parameters, TiM achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing leading models such as SD3.5 (8B parameters) and FLUX.1 (12B parameters) across all evaluated step counts. Importantly, unlike previous few-step generators, TiM demonstrates monotonic quality improvement as the sampling budget increases. Additionally, when employing our native-resolution strategy, TiM delivers exceptional fidelity at resolutions up to 4096x4096.

Recently, Anil et al. (2024) show that many-shot (up to hundreds of) demonstrations can jailbreak state-of-the-art LLMs by exploiting their long-context capability. Nevertheless, is it possible to use few-shot demonstrations to efficiently jailbreak LLMs within limited context sizes? While the vanilla few-shot jailbreaking may be inefficient, we propose improved techniques such as injecting special system tokens like [/INST] and employing demo-level random search from a collected demo pool. These simple techniques result in surprisingly effective jailbreaking against aligned LLMs (even with advanced defenses). For examples, our method achieves >80% (mostly >95%) ASRs on Llama-2-7B and Llama-3-8B without multiple restarts, even if the models are enhanced by strong defenses such as perplexity detection and/or SmoothLLM, which is challenging for suffix-based jailbreaking. In addition, we conduct comprehensive and elaborate (e.g., making sure to use correct system prompts) evaluations against other aligned LLMs and advanced defenses, where our method consistently achieves nearly 100% ASRs. Our code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/I-FSJ.

Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) have achieved tremendous success in natural language understanding tasks. While different learning schemes -- fine-tuning, zero-shot, and few-shot learning -- have been widely explored and compared for languages such as English, there is comparatively little work in Chinese to fairly and comprehensively evaluate and compare these methods and thus hinders cumulative progress. In this paper, we introduce the Chinese Few-shot Learning Evaluation Benchmark (FewCLUE), the first comprehensive few-shot evaluation benchmark in Chinese. It includes nine tasks, ranging from single-sentence and sentence-pair classification tasks to machine reading comprehension tasks. We systematically evaluate five state-of-the-art (SOTA) few-shot learning methods (including PET, ADAPET, LM-BFF, P-tuning and EFL), and compare their performance with fine-tuning and zero-shot learning schemes on the newly constructed FewCLUE benchmark. Experimental results reveal that: 1) The effect of different few-shot learning methods is sensitive to the pre-trained model to which the methods are applied; 2) PET and P-tuning achieve the best overall performance with RoBERTa and ERNIE respectively. Our benchmark is used in the few-shot learning contest of NLPCC 2021. In addition, we provide a user-friendly toolkit, as well as an online leaderboard to help facilitate further progress on Chinese few-shot learning. We provide a baseline performance on different learning methods, a reference for future research.

We study the variance of stochastic policy gradients (SPGs) with many action samples per state. We derive a many-actions optimality condition, which determines when many-actions SPG yields lower variance as compared to a single-action agent with proportionally extended trajectory. We propose Model-Based Many-Actions (MBMA), an approach leveraging dynamics models for many-actions sampling in the context of SPG. MBMA addresses issues associated with existing implementations of many-actions SPG and yields lower bias and comparable variance to SPG estimated from states in model-simulated rollouts. We find that MBMA bias and variance structure matches that predicted by theory. As a result, MBMA achieves improved sample efficiency and higher returns on a range of continuous action environments as compared to model-free, many-actions, and model-based on-policy SPG baselines.

Mean-field games have been used as a theoretical tool to obtain an approximate Nash equilibrium for symmetric and anonymous N-player games. However, limiting applicability, existing theoretical results assume variations of a "population generative model", which allows arbitrary modifications of the population distribution by the learning algorithm. Moreover, learning algorithms typically work on abstract simulators with population instead of the N-player game. Instead, we show that N agents running policy mirror ascent converge to the Nash equilibrium of the regularized game within mathcal{O}(varepsilon^{-2}) samples from a single sample trajectory without a population generative model, up to a standard O(1{N}) error due to the mean field. Taking a divergent approach from the literature, instead of working with the best-response map we first show that a policy mirror ascent map can be used to construct a contractive operator having the Nash equilibrium as its fixed point. We analyze single-path TD learning for N-agent games, proving sample complexity guarantees by only using a sample path from the N-agent simulator without a population generative model. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our methodology allows for independent learning by N agents with finite sample guarantees.

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at few-shot in-context learning (ICL) -- learning from a few examples provided in context at inference, without any weight updates. Newly expanded context windows allow us to investigate ICL with hundreds or thousands of examples -- the many-shot regime. Going from few-shot to many-shot, we observe significant performance gains across a wide variety of generative and discriminative tasks. While promising, many-shot ICL can be bottlenecked by the available amount of human-generated examples. To mitigate this limitation, we explore two new settings: Reinforced and Unsupervised ICL. Reinforced ICL uses model-generated chain-of-thought rationales in place of human examples. Unsupervised ICL removes rationales from the prompt altogether, and prompts the model only with domain-specific questions. We find that both Reinforced and Unsupervised ICL can be quite effective in the many-shot regime, particularly on complex reasoning tasks. Finally, we demonstrate that, unlike few-shot learning, many-shot learning is effective at overriding pretraining biases and can learn high-dimensional functions with numerical inputs. Our analysis also reveals the limitations of next-token prediction loss as an indicator of downstream ICL performance.

We investigate the generalization capabilities of small language models under two popular adaptation paradigms: few-shot prompting and supervised fine-tuning. While prompting is often favored for its parameter efficiency and flexibility, it remains unclear how robust this approach is in low-resource settings and under distributional shifts. This paper presents a comparative study of prompting and fine-tuning across task formats, prompt styles, and model scales, with a focus on their behavior in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution (OOD) settings. Beyond accuracy, we analyze the internal representations learned by each approach to assess the stability and abstraction of task-specific features. Our findings highlight critical differences in how small models internalize and generalize knowledge under different adaptation strategies. This work offers practical guidance for model selection in low-data regimes and contributes empirical insight into the ongoing debate over prompting versus fine-tuning. Code for the experiments is available at the following

Among adversarial attacks against sequential recommender systems, model extraction attacks represent a method to attack sequential recommendation models without prior knowledge. Existing research has primarily concentrated on the adversary's execution of black-box attacks through data-free model extraction. However, a significant gap remains in the literature concerning the development of surrogate models by adversaries with access to few-shot raw data (10\% even less). That is, the challenge of how to construct a surrogate model with high functional similarity within the context of few-shot data scenarios remains an issue that requires resolution.This study addresses this gap by introducing a novel few-shot model extraction framework against sequential recommenders, which is designed to construct a superior surrogate model with the utilization of few-shot data. The proposed few-shot model extraction framework is comprised of two components: an autoregressive augmentation generation strategy and a bidirectional repair loss-facilitated model distillation procedure. Specifically, to generate synthetic data that closely approximate the distribution of raw data, autoregressive augmentation generation strategy integrates a probabilistic interaction sampler to extract inherent dependencies and a synthesis determinant signal module to characterize user behavioral patterns. Subsequently, bidirectional repair loss, which target the discrepancies between the recommendation lists, is designed as auxiliary loss to rectify erroneous predictions from surrogate models, transferring knowledge from the victim model to the surrogate model effectively. Experiments on three datasets show that the proposed few-shot model extraction framework yields superior surrogate models.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) boast impressive capacity to generate realistic images. However, like much of the field of deep learning, they require an inordinate amount of data to produce results, thereby limiting their usefulness in generating novelty. In the same vein, recent advances in meta-learning have opened the door to many few-shot learning applications. In the present work, we propose Few-shot Image Generation using Reptile (FIGR), a GAN meta-trained with Reptile. Our model successfully generates novel images on both MNIST and Omniglot with as little as 4 images from an unseen class. We further contribute FIGR-8, a new dataset for few-shot image generation, which contains 1,548,944 icons categorized in over 18,409 classes. Trained on FIGR-8, initial results show that our model can generalize to more advanced concepts (such as "bird" and "knife") from as few as 8 samples from a previously unseen class of images and as little as 10 training steps through those 8 images. This work demonstrates the potential of training a GAN for few-shot image generation and aims to set a new benchmark for future work in the domain.

Reinforcement learning (RL) agents typically learn tabula rasa, without prior knowledge of the world. However, if initialized with knowledge of high-level subgoals and transitions between subgoals, RL agents could utilize this Abstract World Model (AWM) for planning and exploration. We propose using few-shot large language models (LLMs) to hypothesize an AWM, that will be verified through world experience, to improve sample efficiency of RL agents. Our DECKARD agent applies LLM-guided exploration to item crafting in Minecraft in two phases: (1) the Dream phase where the agent uses an LLM to decompose a task into a sequence of subgoals, the hypothesized AWM; and (2) the Wake phase where the agent learns a modular policy for each subgoal and verifies or corrects the hypothesized AWM. Our method of hypothesizing an AWM with LLMs and then verifying the AWM based on agent experience not only increases sample efficiency over contemporary methods by an order of magnitude but is also robust to and corrects errors in the LLM, successfully blending noisy internet-scale information from LLMs with knowledge grounded in environment dynamics.

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance as few-shot learners. However, their security risks under such settings are largely unexplored. In this work, we conduct a pilot study showing that PLMs as few-shot learners are highly vulnerable to backdoor attacks while existing defenses are inadequate due to the unique challenges of few-shot scenarios. To address such challenges, we advocate MDP, a novel lightweight, pluggable, and effective defense for PLMs as few-shot learners. Specifically, MDP leverages the gap between the masking-sensitivity of poisoned and clean samples: with reference to the limited few-shot data as distributional anchors, it compares the representations of given samples under varying masking and identifies poisoned samples as ones with significant variations. We show analytically that MDP creates an interesting dilemma for the attacker to choose between attack effectiveness and detection evasiveness. The empirical evaluation using benchmark datasets and representative attacks validates the efficacy of MDP.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

Large language models present opportunities for innovative Question Answering over Knowledge Graphs (KGQA). However, they are not inherently designed for query generation. To bridge this gap, solutions have been proposed that rely on fine-tuning or ad-hoc architectures, achieving good results but limited out-of-domain distribution generalization. In this study, we introduce a novel approach called Dynamic Few-Shot Learning (DFSL). DFSL integrates the efficiency of in-context learning and semantic similarity and provides a generally applicable solution for KGQA with state-of-the-art performance. We run an extensive evaluation across multiple benchmark datasets and architecture configurations.

In this work, we explore "prompt tuning", a simple yet effective mechanism for learning "soft prompts" to condition frozen language models to perform specific downstream tasks. Unlike the discrete text prompts used by GPT-3, soft prompts are learned through backpropagation and can be tuned to incorporate signal from any number of labeled examples. Our end-to-end learned approach outperforms GPT-3's "few-shot" learning by a large margin. More remarkably, through ablations on model size using T5, we show that prompt tuning becomes more competitive with scale: as models exceed billions of parameters, our method "closes the gap" and matches the strong performance of model tuning (where all model weights are tuned). This finding is especially relevant in that large models are costly to share and serve, and the ability to reuse one frozen model for multiple downstream tasks can ease this burden. Our method can be seen as a simplification of the recently proposed "prefix tuning" of Li and Liang (2021), and we provide a comparison to this and other similar approaches. Finally, we show that conditioning a frozen model with soft prompts confers benefits in robustness to domain transfer, as compared to full model tuning.

Robustness to natural distribution shifts has seen remarkable progress thanks to recent pre-training strategies combined with better fine-tuning methods. However, such fine-tuning assumes access to large amounts of labelled data, and the extent to which the observations hold when the amount of training data is not as high remains unknown. We address this gap by performing the first in-depth study of robustness to various natural distribution shifts in different low-shot regimes: spanning datasets, architectures, pre-trained initializations, and state-of-the-art robustness interventions. Most importantly, we find that there is no single model of choice that is often more robust than others, and existing interventions can fail to improve robustness on some datasets even if they do so in the full-shot regime. We hope that our work will motivate the community to focus on this problem of practical importance.

Few-shot learning is valuable in many real-world applications, but learning a generalizable model without overfitting to the few labeled datapoints is challenging. In this work, we focus on Few-shot Learning with Auxiliary Data (FLAD), a training paradigm that assumes access to auxiliary data during few-shot learning in hopes of improving generalization. Previous works have proposed automated methods for mixing auxiliary and target data, but these methods typically scale linearly (or worse) with the number of auxiliary datasets, limiting their practicality. In this work we relate FLAD to the explore-exploit dilemma that is central to the multi-armed bandit setting and derive algorithms whose computational complexity is independent of the number of auxiliary datasets, allowing us to scale to 100x more auxiliary datasets than prior methods. We propose two algorithms -- EXP3-FLAD and UCB1-FLAD -- and compare them with prior FLAD methods that either explore or exploit, finding that the combination of exploration and exploitation is crucial. Through extensive experimentation we find that our methods outperform all pre-existing FLAD methods by 4% and lead to the first 3 billion parameter language models that outperform the 175 billion parameter GPT-3. Overall, our work suggests that the discovery of better, more efficient mixing strategies for FLAD may provide a viable path towards substantially improving generalization in few-shot learning.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

Recent work has shown that, under certain assumptions, zero-shot reinforcement learning (RL) methods can generalise to any unseen task in an environment after reward-free pre-training. Access to Markov states is one such assumption, yet, in many real-world applications, the Markov state is only partially observable. Here, we explore how the performance of standard zero-shot RL methods degrades when subjected to partially observability, and show that, as in single-task RL, memory-based architectures are an effective remedy. We evaluate our memory-based zero-shot RL methods in domains where the states, rewards and a change in dynamics are partially observed, and show improved performance over memory-free baselines. Our code is open-sourced via: https://enjeeneer.io/projects/bfms-with-memory/.

We initiate the study of statistical inference and A/B testing for first-price pacing equilibria (FPPE). The FPPE model captures the dynamics resulting from large-scale first-price auction markets where buyers use pacing-based budget management. Such markets arise in the context of internet advertising, where budgets are prevalent. We propose a statistical framework for the FPPE model, in which a limit FPPE with a continuum of items models the long-run steady-state behavior of the auction platform, and an observable FPPE consisting of a finite number of items provides the data to estimate primitives of the limit FPPE, such as revenue, Nash social welfare (a fair metric of efficiency), and other parameters of interest. We develop central limit theorems and asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic local minimax optimality of our estimators. We then show that the theory can be used for conducting statistically valid A/B testing on auction platforms. Numerical simulations verify our central limit theorems, and empirical coverage rates for our confidence intervals agree with our theory.

Standard Full-Data classifiers in NLP demand thousands of labeled examples, which is impractical in data-limited domains. Few-shot methods offer an alternative, utilizing contrastive learning techniques that can be effective with as little as 20 examples per class. Similarly, Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4 can perform effectively with just 1-5 examples per class. However, the performance-cost trade-offs of these methods remain underexplored, a critical concern for budget-limited organizations. Our work addresses this gap by studying the aforementioned approaches over the Banking77 financial intent detection dataset, including the evaluation of cutting-edge LLMs by OpenAI, Cohere, and Anthropic in a comprehensive set of few-shot scenarios. We complete the picture with two additional methods: first, a cost-effective querying method for LLMs based on retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), able to reduce operational costs multiple times compared to classic few-shot approaches, and second, a data augmentation method using GPT-4, able to improve performance in data-limited scenarios. Finally, to inspire future research, we provide a human expert's curated subset of Banking77, along with extensive error analysis.

Diffusion models and flow-matching models have enabled generating diverse and realistic images by learning to transfer noise to data. However, sampling from these models involves iterative denoising over many neural network passes, making generation slow and expensive. Previous approaches for speeding up sampling require complex training regimes, such as multiple training phases, multiple networks, or fragile scheduling. We introduce shortcut models, a family of generative models that use a single network and training phase to produce high-quality samples in a single or multiple sampling steps. Shortcut models condition the network not only on the current noise level but also on the desired step size, allowing the model to skip ahead in the generation process. Across a wide range of sampling step budgets, shortcut models consistently produce higher quality samples than previous approaches, such as consistency models and reflow. Compared to distillation, shortcut models reduce complexity to a single network and training phase and additionally allow varying step budgets at inference time.

An emerging area of research aims to learn deep generative models with limited training data. Prior generative models like GANs and diffusion models require a lot of data to perform well, and their performance degrades when they are trained on only a small amount of data. A recent technique called Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) has been adapted to the few-shot setting, achieving state-of-the-art performance. However, current IMLE-based approaches encounter challenges due to inadequate correspondence between the latent codes selected for training and those drawn during inference. This results in suboptimal test-time performance. We theoretically show a way to address this issue and propose RS-IMLE, a novel approach that changes the prior distribution used for training. This leads to substantially higher quality image generation compared to existing GAN and IMLE-based methods, as validated by comprehensive experiments conducted on nine few-shot image datasets.

Learning with few labeled tabular samples is often an essential requirement for industrial machine learning applications as varieties of tabular data suffer from high annotation costs or have difficulties in collecting new samples for novel tasks. Despite the utter importance, such a problem is quite under-explored in the field of tabular learning, and existing few-shot learning schemes from other domains are not straightforward to apply, mainly due to the heterogeneous characteristics of tabular data. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective framework for few-shot semi-supervised tabular learning, coined Self-generated Tasks from UNlabeled Tables (STUNT). Our key idea is to self-generate diverse few-shot tasks by treating randomly chosen columns as a target label. We then employ a meta-learning scheme to learn generalizable knowledge with the constructed tasks. Moreover, we introduce an unsupervised validation scheme for hyperparameter search (and early stopping) by generating a pseudo-validation set using STUNT from unlabeled data. Our experimental results demonstrate that our simple framework brings significant performance gain under various tabular few-shot learning benchmarks, compared to prior semi- and self-supervised baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/jaehyun513/STUNT.

Continual learning and few-shot learning are important frontiers in progress towards broader Machine Learning (ML) capabilities. There is a growing body of work in both, but few works combining the two. One exception is the Continual few-shot Learning (CFSL) framework of Antoniou et al. arXiv:2004.11967. In this study, we extend CFSL in two ways that capture a broader range of challenges, important for intelligent agent behaviour in real-world conditions. First, we modify CFSL to make it more comparable to standard continual learning experiments, where usually a much larger number of classes are presented. Second, we introduce an 'instance test' which requires recognition of specific instances of classes -- a capability of animal cognition that is usually neglected in ML. For an initial exploration of ML model performance under these conditions, we selected representative baseline models from the original CFSL work and added a model variant with replay. As expected, learning more classes is more difficult than the original CFSL experiments, and interestingly, the way in which image instances and classes are presented affects classification performance. Surprisingly, accuracy in the baseline instance test is comparable to other classification tasks, but poor given significant occlusion and noise. The use of replay for consolidation improves performance substantially for both types of tasks, but particularly the instance test.

Few-shot image generation (FSIG) aims to learn to generate new and diverse samples given an extremely limited number of samples from a domain, e.g., 10 training samples. Recent work has addressed the problem using transfer learning approach, leveraging a GAN pretrained on a large-scale source domain dataset and adapting that model to the target domain based on very limited target domain samples. Central to recent FSIG methods are knowledge preserving criteria, which aim to select a subset of source model's knowledge to be preserved into the adapted model. However, a major limitation of existing methods is that their knowledge preserving criteria consider only source domain/source task, and they fail to consider target domain/adaptation task in selecting source model's knowledge, casting doubt on their suitability for setups of different proximity between source and target domain. Our work makes two contributions. As our first contribution, we re-visit recent FSIG works and their experiments. Our important finding is that, under setups which assumption of close proximity between source and target domains is relaxed, existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods which consider only source domain/source task in knowledge preserving perform no better than a baseline fine-tuning method. To address the limitation of existing methods, as our second contribution, we propose Adaptation-Aware kernel Modulation (AdAM) to address general FSIG of different source-target domain proximity. Extensive experimental results show that the proposed method consistently achieves SOTA performance across source/target domains of different proximity, including challenging setups when source and target domains are more apart. Project Page: https://yunqing-me.github.io/AdAM/

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

Skill Classification (SC) is the task of classifying job competences from job postings. This work is the first in SC applied to Danish job vacancy data. We release the first Danish job posting dataset: Kompetencer (en: competences), annotated for nested spans of competences. To improve upon coarse-grained annotations, we make use of The European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO; le Vrang et al., 2014) taxonomy API to obtain fine-grained labels via distant supervision. We study two setups: The zero-shot and few-shot classification setting. We fine-tune English-based models and RemBERT (Chung et al., 2020) and compare them to in-language Danish models. Our results show RemBERT significantly outperforms all other models in both the zero-shot and the few-shot setting.

Modern reinforcement learning (RL) systems capture deep truths about general, human problem-solving. In domains where new data can be simulated cheaply, these systems uncover sequential decision-making policies that far exceed the ability of any human. Society faces many problems whose solutions require this skill, but they are often in domains where new data cannot be cheaply simulated. In such scenarios, we can learn simulators from existing data, but these will only ever be approximately correct, and can be pathologically incorrect when queried outside of their training distribution. As a result, a misalignment between the environments in which we train our agents and the real-world in which we wish to deploy our agents is inevitable. Dealing with this misalignment is the primary concern of zero-shot reinforcement learning, a problem setting where the agent must generalise to a new task or domain with zero practice shots. Whilst impressive progress has been made on methods that perform zero-shot RL in idealised settings, new work is needed if these results are to be replicated in real-world settings. In this thesis, we argue that doing so requires us to navigate (at least) three constraints. First, the data quality constraint: real-world datasets are small and homogeneous. Second, the observability constraint: states, dynamics and rewards in the real-world are often only partially observed. And third, the data availability constraint: a priori access to data cannot always be assumed. This work proposes a suite of methods that perform zero-shot RL subject to these constraints. In a series of empirical studies we expose the failings of existing methods, and justify our techniques for remedying them. We believe these designs take us a step closer to RL methods that can be deployed to solve real-world problems.

This work proposes a procedure for designing algorithms for specific adaptive data collection tasks like active learning and pure-exploration multi-armed bandits. Unlike the design of traditional adaptive algorithms that rely on concentration of measure and careful analysis to justify the correctness and sample complexity of the procedure, our adaptive algorithm is learned via adversarial training over equivalence classes of problems derived from information theoretic lower bounds. In particular, a single adaptive learning algorithm is learned that competes with the best adaptive algorithm learned for each equivalence class. Our procedure takes as input just the available queries, set of hypotheses, loss function, and total query budget. This is in contrast to existing meta-learning work that learns an adaptive algorithm relative to an explicit, user-defined subset or prior distribution over problems which can be challenging to define and be mismatched to the instance encountered at test time. This work is particularly focused on the regime when the total query budget is very small, such as a few dozen, which is much smaller than those budgets typically considered by theoretically derived algorithms. We perform synthetic experiments to justify the stability and effectiveness of the training procedure, and then evaluate the method on tasks derived from real data including a noisy 20 Questions game and a joke recommendation task.

We study offline multi-agent reinforcement learning (RL) in Markov games, where the goal is to learn an approximate equilibrium -- such as Nash equilibrium and (Coarse) Correlated Equilibrium -- from an offline dataset pre-collected from the game. Existing works consider relatively restricted tabular or linear models and handle each equilibria separately. In this work, we provide the first framework for sample-efficient offline learning in Markov games under general function approximation, handling all 3 equilibria in a unified manner. By using Bellman-consistent pessimism, we obtain interval estimation for policies' returns, and use both the upper and the lower bounds to obtain a relaxation on the gap of a candidate policy, which becomes our optimization objective. Our results generalize prior works and provide several additional insights. Importantly, we require a data coverage condition that improves over the recently proposed "unilateral concentrability". Our condition allows selective coverage of deviation policies that optimally trade-off between their greediness (as approximate best responses) and coverage, and we show scenarios where this leads to significantly better guarantees. As a new connection, we also show how our algorithmic framework can subsume seemingly different solution concepts designed for the special case of two-player zero-sum games.

Generative modeling of time series is a central challenge in time series analysis, particularly under data-scarce conditions. Despite recent advances in generative modeling, a comprehensive understanding of how state-of-the-art generative models perform under limited supervision remains lacking. In this work, we conduct the first large-scale study evaluating leading generative models in data-scarce settings, revealing a substantial performance gap between full-data and data-scarce regimes. To close this gap, we propose a unified diffusion-based generative framework that can synthesize high-fidelity time series across diverse domains using just a few examples. Our model is pre-trained on a large, heterogeneous collection of time series datasets, enabling it to learn generalizable temporal representations. It further incorporates architectural innovations such as dynamic convolutional layers for flexible channel adaptation and dataset token conditioning for domain-aware generation. Without requiring abundant supervision, our unified model achieves state-of-the-art performance in few-shot settings-outperforming domain-specific baselines across a wide range of subset sizes. Remarkably, it also surpasses all baselines even when tested on full datasets benchmarks, highlighting the strength of pre-training and cross-domain generalization. We hope this work encourages the community to revisit few-shot generative modeling as a key problem in time series research and pursue unified solutions that scale efficiently across domains. Code is available at https://github.com/azencot-group/ImagenFew.

We address the problem of finite-horizon control of a discrete-time linear system, where the initial state distribution follows a Gaussian mixture model, the terminal state must follow a specified Gaussian distribution, and the state and control inputs must obey chance constraints. We show that, throughout the time horizon, the state and control distributions are fully characterized by Gaussian mixtures. We then formulate the cost, distributional terminal constraint, and affine/2-norm chance constraints on the state and control, as convex functions of the decision variables. This is leveraged to formulate the chance-constrained path planning problem as a single convex optimization problem. A numerical example demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

In-context learning (ICL, also known as few-shot prompting) has been the standard method of adapting LLMs to downstream tasks, by learning from a few input-output examples. Nonetheless, all ICL-based approaches only learn from correct input-output pairs. In this paper, we revisit this paradigm, by learning more from the few given input-output examples. We introduce Learning Principles (LEAP): First, we intentionally induce the model to make mistakes on these few examples; then we reflect on these mistakes, and learn explicit task-specific "principles" from them, which help solve similar problems and avoid common mistakes; finally, we prompt the model to answer unseen test questions using the original few-shot examples and these learned general principles. We evaluate LEAP on a wide range of benchmarks, including multi-hop question answering (Hotpot QA), textual QA (DROP), Big-Bench Hard reasoning, and math problems (GSM8K and MATH); in all these benchmarks, LEAP improves the strongest available LLMs such as GPT-3.5-turbo, GPT-4, GPT-4 turbo and Claude-2.1. For example, LEAP improves over the standard few-shot prompting using GPT-4 by 7.5% in DROP, and by 3.3% in HotpotQA. Importantly, LEAP does not require any more input or examples than the standard few-shot prompting settings.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

In the field of portrait video generation, the use of single images to generate portrait videos has become increasingly prevalent. A common approach involves leveraging generative models to enhance adapters for controlled generation. However, control signals (e.g., text, audio, reference image, pose, depth map, etc.) can vary in strength. Among these, weaker conditions often struggle to be effective due to interference from stronger conditions, posing a challenge in balancing these conditions. In our work on portrait video generation, we identified audio signals as particularly weak, often overshadowed by stronger signals such as facial pose and reference image. However, direct training with weak signals often leads to difficulties in convergence. To address this, we propose V-Express, a simple method that balances different control signals through the progressive training and the conditional dropout operation. Our method gradually enables effective control by weak conditions, thereby achieving generation capabilities that simultaneously take into account the facial pose, reference image, and audio. The experimental results demonstrate that our method can effectively generate portrait videos controlled by audio. Furthermore, a potential solution is provided for the simultaneous and effective use of conditions of varying strengths.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

Although pre-trained language models have exhibited great flexibility and versatility with prompt-based few-shot learning, they suffer from the extensive parameter size and limited applicability for inference. Recent studies have suggested that PLMs be used as dataset generators and a tiny task-specific model be trained to achieve efficient inference. However, their applicability to various domains is limited because they tend to generate domain-specific datasets. In this work, we propose a novel approach to universal domain generalization that generates a dataset regardless of the target domain. This allows for generalization of the tiny task model to any domain that shares the label space, thus enhancing the real-world applicability of the dataset generation paradigm. Our experiments indicate that the proposed method accomplishes generalizability across various domains while using a parameter set that is orders of magnitude smaller than PLMs.

It is an important yet challenging setting to continually learn new tasks from a few examples. Although numerous efforts have been devoted to either continual learning or few-shot learning, little work has considered this new setting of few-shot continual learning (FSCL), which needs to minimize the catastrophic forgetting to the old tasks and gradually improve the ability of few-shot generalization. In this paper, we provide a first systematic study on FSCL and present an effective solution with deep neural networks. Our solution is based on the observation that continual learning of a task sequence inevitably interferes few-shot generalization, which makes it highly nontrivial to extend few-shot learning strategies to continual learning scenarios. We draw inspirations from the robust brain system and develop a method that (1) interdependently updates a pair of fast / slow weights for continual learning and few-shot learning to disentangle their divergent objectives, inspired by the biological model of meta-plasticity and fast / slow synapse; and (2) applies a brain-inspired two-step consolidation strategy to learn a task sequence without forgetting in the fast weights while improve generalization without overfitting in the slow weights. Extensive results on various benchmarks show that our method achieves a better performance than joint training of all the tasks ever seen. The ability of few-shot generalization is also substantially improved from incoming tasks and examples.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

In recent years, particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) have grown in popularity as scalable methods for Bayesian inference. Unfortunately, the properties of such methods invariably depend on hyperparameters such as the learning rate, which must be carefully tuned by the practitioner in order to ensure convergence to the target measure at a suitable rate. In this paper, we introduce a suite of new particle-based methods for scalable Bayesian inference based on coin betting, which are entirely learning-rate free. We illustrate the performance of our approach on a range of numerical examples, including several high-dimensional models and datasets, demonstrating comparable performance to other ParVI algorithms with no need to tune a learning rate.

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

State-of-the-art few-shot learning (FSL) methods leverage prompt-based fine-tuning to obtain remarkable results for natural language understanding (NLU) tasks. While much of the prior FSL methods focus on improving downstream task performance, there is a limited understanding of the adversarial robustness of such methods. In this work, we conduct an extensive study of several state-of-the-art FSL methods to assess their robustness to adversarial perturbations. To better understand the impact of various factors towards robustness (or the lack of it), we evaluate prompt-based FSL methods against fully fine-tuned models for aspects such as the use of unlabeled data, multiple prompts, number of few-shot examples, model size and type. Our results on six GLUE tasks indicate that compared to fully fine-tuned models, vanilla FSL methods lead to a notable relative drop in task performance (i.e., are less robust) in the face of adversarial perturbations. However, using (i) unlabeled data for prompt-based FSL and (ii) multiple prompts flip the trend. We further demonstrate that increasing the number of few-shot examples and model size lead to increased adversarial robustness of vanilla FSL methods. Broadly, our work sheds light on the adversarial robustness evaluation of prompt-based FSL methods for NLU tasks.

Recent advances in zero-shot and few-shot learning have shown promise for a scope of research and practical purposes. However, this fast-growing area lacks standardized evaluation suites for non-English languages, hindering progress outside the Anglo-centric paradigm. To address this line of research, we propose TAPE (Text Attack and Perturbation Evaluation), a novel benchmark that includes six more complex NLU tasks for Russian, covering multi-hop reasoning, ethical concepts, logic and commonsense knowledge. The TAPE's design focuses on systematic zero-shot and few-shot NLU evaluation: (i) linguistic-oriented adversarial attacks and perturbations for analyzing robustness, and (ii) subpopulations for nuanced interpretation. The detailed analysis of testing the autoregressive baselines indicates that simple spelling-based perturbations affect the performance the most, while paraphrasing the input has a more negligible effect. At the same time, the results demonstrate a significant gap between the neural and human baselines for most tasks. We publicly release TAPE (tape-benchmark.com) to foster research on robust LMs that can generalize to new tasks when little to no supervision is available.

We initiate the study of proper losses for evaluating generative models in the discrete setting. Unlike traditional proper losses, we treat both the generative model and the target distribution as black-boxes, only assuming ability to draw i.i.d. samples. We define a loss to be black-box proper if the generative distribution that minimizes expected loss is equal to the target distribution. Using techniques from statistical estimation theory, we give a general construction and characterization of black-box proper losses: they must take a polynomial form, and the number of draws from the model and target distribution must exceed the degree of the polynomial. The characterization rules out a loss whose expectation is the cross-entropy between the target distribution and the model. By extending the construction to arbitrary sampling schemes such as Poisson sampling, however, we show that one can construct such a loss.

Classification is a core task in machine learning. Recent research has shown that although Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) are initially poor at image classification, fine-tuning them with an adequate amount of data can significantly enhance their performance, making them comparable to SOTA classification models. However, acquiring large-scale labeled data is expensive. In this paper, we explore few-shot MLLM classification fine-tuning. We found that SFT can cause severe overfitting issues and may even degrade performance over the zero-shot approach. To address this challenge, inspired by the recent successes in rule-based reinforcement learning, we propose CLS-RL, which uses verifiable signals as reward to fine-tune MLLMs. We discovered that CLS-RL outperforms SFT in most datasets and has a much higher average accuracy on both base-to-new and few-shot learning setting. Moreover, we observed a free-lunch phenomenon for CLS-RL; when models are fine-tuned on a particular dataset, their performance on other distinct datasets may also improve over zero-shot models, even if those datasets differ in distribution and class names. This suggests that RL-based methods effectively teach models the fundamentals of classification. Lastly, inspired by recent works in inference time thinking, we re-examine the `thinking process' during fine-tuning, a critical aspect of RL-based methods, in the context of visual classification. We question whether such tasks require extensive thinking process during fine-tuning, proposing that this may actually detract from performance. Based on this premise, we introduce the No-Thinking-CLS-RL method, which minimizes thinking processes during training by setting an equality accuracy reward. Our findings indicate that, with much less fine-tuning time, No-Thinking-CLS-RL method achieves superior in-domain performance and generalization capabilities than CLS-RL.

Recent foundational language models have shown state-of-the-art performance in many NLP tasks in zero- and few-shot settings. An advantage of these models over more standard approaches based on fine-tuning is the ability to understand instructions written in natural language (prompts), which helps them generalise better to different tasks and domains without the need for specific training data. This makes them suitable for addressing text classification problems for domains with limited amounts of annotated instances. However, existing research is limited in scale and lacks understanding of how text generation models combined with prompting techniques compare to more established methods for text classification such as fine-tuning masked language models. In this paper, we address this research gap by performing a large-scale evaluation study for 16 text classification datasets covering binary, multiclass, and multilabel problems. In particular, we compare zero- and few-shot approaches of large language models to fine-tuning smaller language models. We also analyse the results by prompt, classification type, domain, and number of labels. In general, the results show how fine-tuning smaller and more efficient language models can still outperform few-shot approaches of larger language models, which have room for improvement when it comes to text classification.

In the realm of artificial intelligence, where a vast majority of data is unstructured, obtaining substantial amounts of labeled data to train supervised machine learning models poses a significant challenge. To address this, we delve into few-shot and active learning, where are goal is to improve AI models with human feedback on a few labeled examples. This paper focuses on understanding how a continuous feedback loop can refine models, thereby enhancing their accuracy, recall, and precision through incremental human input. By employing Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-3.5, BERT, and SetFit, we aim to analyze the efficacy of using a limited number of labeled examples to substantially improve model accuracy. We benchmark this approach on the Financial Phrasebank, Banking, Craigslist, Trec, Amazon Reviews datasets to prove that with just a few labeled examples, we are able to surpass the accuracy of zero shot large language models to provide enhanced text classification performance. We demonstrate that rather than needing to manually label millions of rows of data, we just need to label a few and the model can effectively predict the rest.

We present Self-Play Preference Optimization (SPO), an algorithm for reinforcement learning from human feedback. Our approach is minimalist in that it does not require training a reward model nor unstable adversarial training and is therefore rather simple to implement. Our approach is maximalist in that it provably handles non-Markovian, intransitive, and stochastic preferences while being robust to the compounding errors that plague offline approaches to sequential prediction. To achieve the preceding qualities, we build upon the concept of a Minimax Winner (MW), a notion of preference aggregation from the social choice theory literature that frames learning from preferences as a zero-sum game between two policies. By leveraging the symmetry of this game, we prove that rather than using the traditional technique of dueling two policies to compute the MW, we can simply have a single agent play against itself while maintaining strong convergence guarantees. Practically, this corresponds to sampling multiple trajectories from a policy, asking a rater or preference model to compare them, and then using the proportion of wins as the reward for a particular trajectory. We demonstrate that on a suite of continuous control tasks, we are able to learn significantly more efficiently than reward-model based approaches while maintaining robustness to the intransitive and stochastic preferences that frequently occur in practice when aggregating human judgments.

Meta-learning algorithms are able to learn a new task using previously learned knowledge, but they often require a large number of meta-training tasks which may not be readily available. To address this issue, we propose a method for few-shot learning with fewer tasks, which we call MetaModulation. The key idea is to use a neural network to increase the density of the meta-training tasks by modulating batch normalization parameters during meta-training. Additionally, we modify parameters at various network levels, rather than just a single layer, to increase task diversity. To account for the uncertainty caused by the limited training tasks, we propose a variational MetaModulation where the modulation parameters are treated as latent variables. We also introduce learning variational feature hierarchies by the variational MetaModulation, which modulates features at all layers and can consider task uncertainty and generate more diverse tasks. The ablation studies illustrate the advantages of utilizing a learnable task modulation at different levels and demonstrate the benefit of incorporating probabilistic variants in few-task meta-learning. Our MetaModulation and its variational variants consistently outperform state-of-the-art alternatives on four few-task meta-learning benchmarks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are entering urban governance, yet their outputs are highly sensitive to prompts that carry value judgments. We propose Prompt Commons - a versioned, community-maintained repository of prompts with governance metadata, licensing, and moderation - to steer model behaviour toward pluralism. Using a Montreal dataset (443 human prompts; 3,317 after augmentation), we pilot three governance states (open, curated, veto-enabled). On a contested policy benchmark, a single-author prompt yields 24 percent neutral outcomes; commons-governed prompts raise neutrality to 48-52 percent while retaining decisiveness where appropriate. In a synthetic incident log, a veto-enabled regime reduces time-to-remediation for harmful outputs from 30.5 +/- 8.9 hours (open) to 5.6 +/- 1.5 hours. We outline licensing (CC BY/BY-SA for prompts with optional OpenRAIL-style restrictions for artefacts), auditable moderation, and safeguards against dominance capture. Prompt governance offers a practical lever for cities to align AI with local values and accountability.

It is believed that in knowledge distillation (KD), the role of the teacher is to provide an estimate for the unknown Bayes conditional probability distribution (BCPD) to be used in the student training process. Conventionally, this estimate is obtained by training the teacher using maximum log-likelihood (MLL) method. To improve this estimate for KD, in this paper we introduce the concept of conditional mutual information (CMI) into the estimation of BCPD and propose a novel estimator called the maximum CMI (MCMI) method. Specifically, in MCMI estimation, both the log-likelihood and CMI of the teacher are simultaneously maximized when the teacher is trained. Through Eigen-CAM, it is further shown that maximizing the teacher's CMI value allows the teacher to capture more contextual information in an image cluster. Via conducting a thorough set of experiments, we show that by employing a teacher trained via MCMI estimation rather than one trained via MLL estimation in various state-of-the-art KD frameworks, the student's classification accuracy consistently increases, with the gain of up to 3.32\%. This suggests that the teacher's BCPD estimate provided by MCMI method is more accurate than that provided by MLL method. In addition, we show that such improvements in the student's accuracy are more drastic in zero-shot and few-shot settings. Notably, the student's accuracy increases with the gain of up to 5.72\% when 5\% of the training samples are available to the student (few-shot), and increases from 0\% to as high as 84\% for an omitted class (zero-shot). The code is available at https://github.com/iclr2024mcmi/ICLRMCMI.

We study principal-agent problems in which a principal commits to an outcome-dependent payment scheme -- called contract -- in order to induce an agent to take a costly, unobservable action leading to favorable outcomes. We consider a generalization of the classical (single-round) version of the problem in which the principal interacts with the agent by committing to contracts over multiple rounds. The principal has no information about the agent, and they have to learn an optimal contract by only observing the outcome realized at each round. We focus on settings in which the size of the agent's action space is small. We design an algorithm that learns an approximately-optimal contract with high probability in a number of rounds polynomial in the size of the outcome space, when the number of actions is constant. Our algorithm solves an open problem by Zhu et al.[2022]. Moreover, it can also be employed to provide a mathcal{O}(T^{4/5}) regret bound in the related online learning setting in which the principal aims at maximizing their cumulative utility, thus considerably improving previously-known regret bounds.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) strengthens LLM reasoning, but training often oscillates between {entropy collapse} and {entropy explosion}. We trace both hazards to the mean baseline used in value-free RL (e.g., GRPO and DAPO), which improperly penalizes negative-advantage samples under reward outliers. We propose {Quantile Advantage Estimation} (QAE), replacing the mean with a group-wise K-quantile baseline. QAE induces a response-level, two-regime gate: on hard queries (p <= 1 - K) it reinforces rare successes, while on easy queries (p > 1 - K) it targets remaining failures. Under first-order softmax updates, we prove {two-sided entropy safety}, giving lower and upper bounds on one-step entropy change that curb explosion and prevent collapse. Empirically, this minimal modification stabilizes entropy, sparsifies credit assignment (with tuned K, roughly 80% of responses receive zero advantage), and yields sustained pass@1 gains on Qwen3-8B/14B-Base across AIME 2024/2025 and AMC 2023. These results identify {baseline design} -- rather than token-level heuristics -- as the primary mechanism for scaling RLVR.

Policy-based reinforcement learning currently plays an important role in improving LLMs on mathematical reasoning tasks. However, existing rollout-based reinforcement learning methods (GRPO, DAPO, GSPO, etc.) fail to explicitly consider LLMs' learning ability for samples of different difficulty levels, which is contrary to the human cognitive process of mathematical reasoning tasks from easy to difficult. Intuitively, we find that the variance of the rollout group's reward in RLVR partly reflects the difficulty of the current sample for LLMs. Samples that are too easy or too difficult have a lower variance, while samples with moderate difficulty have a higher variance. Based on this, we propose VCRL, a curriculum reinforcement learning framework that dynamically controls the difficulty of training samples based on the variance of group rewards. Experiments on five mathematical benchmarks and two models reveal the advantages of VCRL over the current LLM RL baselines.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning capabilities, but they often underperform compared to fine-tuned models on challenging tasks. Furthermore, their large size and restricted access only through APIs make task-specific fine-tuning impractical. Moreover, LLMs are sensitive to different aspects of prompts (e.g., the selection and order of demonstrations) and can thus require time-consuming prompt engineering. In this light, we propose a method to correct LLM outputs without relying on their weights. First, we generate a pool of candidates by few-shot prompting an LLM. Second, we refine the LLM-generated outputs using a smaller model, the LM-corrector (LMCor), which is trained to rank, combine and rewrite the candidates to produce the final target output. Our experiments demonstrate that even a small LMCor model (250M) substantially improves the few-shot performance of LLMs (62B) across diverse tasks. Moreover, we illustrate that the LMCor exhibits robustness against different prompts, thereby minimizing the need for extensive prompt engineering. Finally, we showcase that the LMCor can be seamlessly integrated with different LLMs at inference time, serving as a plug-and-play module to improve their performance.

In this work, we aim to capitalize on the unique few-shot capabilities of large-scale language models (LSLMs) to overcome some of their challenges with respect to grounding to factual and up-to-date information. Motivated by semi-parametric language models (LMs), which ground their decisions in external retrieved evidence, we use few-shot prompting to learn to condition LMs on information returned from the web using Google Search, a broad and constantly updated knowledge source. Our approach does not involve fine-tuning or learning additional parameters, thus making it applicable to any LM, offering therefore a strong baseline. Indeed, we find that LMs conditioned on the web surpass performance of closed-book models of similar, or even larger, model sizes in open-domain question answering. Finally, we find that increasing the inference-time compute of models, achieved via using multiple retrieved evidences to generate multiple answers followed by a reranking stage that uses scores generated by the same LMs, leads to better performance and alleviates lower performance of smaller few-shot LMs. All in all, our findings suggest that it might be beneficial to slow down the race towards the biggest model and instead shift attention towards finding more effective ways to use models, including but not limited to, better prompting or increasing inference-time compute.

Designing video prediction models that account for the inherent uncertainty of the future is challenging. Most works in the literature are based on stochastic image-autoregressive recurrent networks, which raises several performance and applicability issues. An alternative is to use fully latent temporal models which untie frame synthesis and temporal dynamics. However, no such model for stochastic video prediction has been proposed in the literature yet, due to design and training difficulties. In this paper, we overcome these difficulties by introducing a novel stochastic temporal model whose dynamics are governed in a latent space by a residual update rule. This first-order scheme is motivated by discretization schemes of differential equations. It naturally models video dynamics as it allows our simpler, more interpretable, latent model to outperform prior state-of-the-art methods on challenging datasets.

Playing games has a long history of describing intricate interactions in simplified forms. In this paper we explore if large language models (LLMs) can play games, investigating their capabilities for randomisation and strategic adaptation through both simultaneous and sequential game interactions. We focus on GPT-4o-Mini-2024-08-17 and test two games between LLMs: Rock Paper Scissors (RPS) and games of strategy (Prisoners Dilemma PD). LLMs are often described as stochastic parrots, and while they may indeed be parrots, our results suggest that they are not very stochastic in the sense that their outputs - when prompted to be random - are often very biased. Our research reveals that LLMs appear to develop loss aversion strategies in repeated games, with RPS converging to stalemate conditions while PD shows systematic shifts between cooperative and competitive outcomes based on prompt design. We detail programmatic tools for independent agent interactions and the Agentic AI challenges faced in implementation. We show that LLMs can indeed play games, just not very well. These results have implications for the use of LLMs in multi-agent LLM systems and showcase limitations in current approaches to model output for strategic decision-making.

Error Feedback (EF) is a highly popular and immensely effective mechanism for fixing convergence issues which arise in distributed training methods (such as distributed GD or SGD) when these are enhanced with greedy communication compression techniques such as TopK. While EF was proposed almost a decade ago (Seide et al., 2014), and despite concentrated effort by the community to advance the theoretical understanding of this mechanism, there is still a lot to explore. In this work we study a modern form of error feedback called EF21 (Richtarik et al., 2021) which offers the currently best-known theoretical guarantees, under the weakest assumptions, and also works well in practice. In particular, while the theoretical communication complexity of EF21 depends on the quadratic mean of certain smoothness parameters, we improve this dependence to their arithmetic mean, which is always smaller, and can be substantially smaller, especially in heterogeneous data regimes. We take the reader on a journey of our discovery process. Starting with the idea of applying EF21 to an equivalent reformulation of the underlying problem which (unfortunately) requires (often impractical) machine cloning, we continue to the discovery of a new weighted version of EF21 which can (fortunately) be executed without any cloning, and finally circle back to an improved analysis of the original EF21 method. While this development applies to the simplest form of EF21, our approach naturally extends to more elaborate variants involving stochastic gradients and partial participation. Further, our technique improves the best-known theory of EF21 in the rare features regime (Richtarik et al., 2023). Finally, we validate our theoretical findings with suitable experiments.

We study the problem of adaptively identifying patient subpopulations that benefit from a given treatment during a confirmatory clinical trial. This type of adaptive clinical trial has been thoroughly studied in biostatistics, but has been allowed only limited adaptivity so far. Here, we aim to relax classical restrictions on such designs and investigate how to incorporate ideas from the recent machine learning literature on adaptive and online experimentation to make trials more flexible and efficient. We find that the unique characteristics of the subpopulation selection problem -- most importantly that (i) one is usually interested in finding subpopulations with any treatment benefit (and not necessarily the single subgroup with largest effect) given a limited budget and that (ii) effectiveness only has to be demonstrated across the subpopulation on average -- give rise to interesting challenges and new desiderata when designing algorithmic solutions. Building on these findings, we propose AdaGGI and AdaGCPI, two meta-algorithms for subpopulation construction. We empirically investigate their performance across a range of simulation scenarios and derive insights into their (dis)advantages across different settings.

In molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, rare events, such as protein folding, are typically studied by means of enhanced sampling techniques, most of which rely on the definition of a collective variable (CV) along which the acceleration occurs. Obtaining an expressive CV is crucial, but often hindered by the lack of information about the particular event, e.g., the transition from unfolded to folded conformation. We propose a simulation-free data augmentation strategy using physics-inspired metrics to generate geodesic interpolations resembling protein folding transitions, thereby improving sampling efficiency without true transition state samples. Leveraging interpolation progress parameters, we introduce a regression-based learning scheme for CV models, which outperforms classifier-based methods when transition state data is limited and noisy

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

Simple regret is a natural and parameter-free performance criterion for pure exploration in multi-armed bandits yet is less popular than the probability of missing the best arm or an epsilon-good arm, perhaps due to lack of easy ways to characterize it. In this paper, we make significant progress on minimizing simple regret in both data-rich (Tge n) and data-poor regime (T le n) where n is the number of arms, and T is the number of samples. At its heart is our improved instance-dependent analysis of the well-known Sequential Halving (SH) algorithm, where we bound the probability of returning an arm whose mean reward is not within epsilon from the best (i.e., not epsilon-good) for any choice of epsilon>0, although epsilon is not an input to SH. Our bound not only leads to an optimal worst-case simple regret bound of n/T up to logarithmic factors but also essentially matches the instance-dependent lower bound for returning an epsilon-good arm reported by Katz-Samuels and Jamieson (2020). For the more challenging data-poor regime, we propose Bracketing SH (BSH) that enjoys the same improvement even without sampling each arm at least once. Our empirical study shows that BSH outperforms existing methods on real-world tasks.

Cascades are a classical strategy to enable inference cost to vary adaptively across samples, wherein a sequence of classifiers are invoked in turn. A deferral rule determines whether to invoke the next classifier in the sequence, or to terminate prediction. One simple deferral rule employs the confidence of the current classifier, e.g., based on the maximum predicted softmax probability. Despite being oblivious to the structure of the cascade -- e.g., not modelling the errors of downstream models -- such confidence-based deferral often works remarkably well in practice. In this paper, we seek to better understand the conditions under which confidence-based deferral may fail, and when alternate deferral strategies can perform better. We first present a theoretical characterisation of the optimal deferral rule, which precisely characterises settings under which confidence-based deferral may suffer. We then study post-hoc deferral mechanisms, and demonstrate they can significantly improve upon confidence-based deferral in settings where (i) downstream models are specialists that only work well on a subset of inputs, (ii) samples are subject to label noise, and (iii) there is distribution shift between the train and test set.

Text-adventure games and text role-playing games are grand challenges for reinforcement learning game playing agents. Text role-playing games are open-ended environments where an agent must faithfully play a particular character. We consider the distinction between characters and actors, where an actor agent has the ability to play multiple characters. We present a framework we call a thespian agent that can learn to emulate multiple characters along with a soft prompt that can be used to direct it as to which character to play at any time. We further describe an attention mechanism that allows the agent to learn new characters that are based on previously learned characters in a few-shot fashion. We show that our agent outperforms the state of the art agent framework in multi-character learning and few-shot learning.

Reinforcement learning fine-tuning (RLFT) is a dominant paradigm for improving pretrained policies for downstream tasks. These pretrained policies, trained on large datasets, produce generations with a broad range of promising but unrefined behaviors. Often, a critical failure mode of RLFT arises when policies lose this diversity and collapse into a handful of easily exploitable outputs. This convergence hinders exploration, which is essential for expanding the capabilities of the pretrained policy and for amplifying the benefits of test-time compute scaling. To address this, we introduce an objective for policy gradient methods that explicitly enforces the exploration and refinement of diverse generations, which we call a polychromic objective. We then show how proximal policy optimization (PPO) can be adapted to optimize this objective. Our method (1) employs vine sampling to collect on-policy rollouts and (2) modifies the advantage function to reflect the advantage under our new objective. Experiments on BabyAI, Minigrid, and Algorithmic Creativity show that our method improves success rates by reliably solving a larger set of environment configurations and generalizes better under large perturbations. Moreover, when given multiple attempts in pass@k experiments, the policy achieves substantially higher coverage, demonstrating its ability to maintain and exploit a diverse repertoire of strategies.

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

Uniform-state discrete diffusion models hold the promise of fast text generation due to their inherent ability to self-correct. However, they are typically outperformed by autoregressive models and masked diffusion models. In this work, we narrow this performance gap by leveraging a key insight: Uniform-state diffusion processes naturally emerge from an underlying Gaussian diffusion. Our method, Duo, transfers powerful techniques from Gaussian diffusion to improve both training and sampling. First, we introduce a curriculum learning strategy guided by the Gaussian process, doubling training speed by reducing variance. Models trained with curriculum learning surpass autoregressive models in zero-shot perplexity on 3 of 7 benchmarks. Second, we present Discrete Consistency Distillation, which adapts consistency distillation from the continuous to the discrete setting. This algorithm unlocks few-step generation in diffusion language models by accelerating sampling by two orders of magnitude. We provide the code and model checkpoints on the project page: http://s-sahoo.github.io/duo

Real-world applications of large language models (LLMs) in computational social science (CSS) tasks primarily depend on the effectiveness of instruction tuning (IT) or in-context learning (ICL). While IT has shown highly effective at fine-tuning LLMs for various tasks, ICL offers a rapid alternative for task adaptation by learning from examples without explicit gradient updates. In this paper, we evaluate the classification performance of LLMs using IT versus ICL in few-shot CSS tasks. The experimental results indicate that ICL consistently outperforms IT in most CSS tasks. Additionally, we investigate the relationship between the increasing number of training samples and LLM performance. Our findings show that simply increasing the number of samples without considering their quality does not consistently enhance the performance of LLMs with either ICL or IT and can sometimes even result in a performance decline. Finally, we compare three prompting strategies, demonstrating that ICL is more effective than zero-shot and Chain-of-Thought (CoT). Our research highlights the significant advantages of ICL in handling CSS tasks in few-shot settings and emphasizes the importance of optimizing sample quality and prompting strategies to improve LLM classification performance. The code will be made available.

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) can in principle synthesize more optimal behavior from a dataset consisting only of suboptimal trials. One way that this can happen is by "stitching" together the best parts of otherwise suboptimal trajectories that overlap on similar states, to create new behaviors where each individual state is in-distribution, but the overall returns are higher. However, in many interesting and complex applications, such as autonomous navigation and dialogue systems, the state is partially observed. Even worse, the state representation is unknown or not easy to define. In such cases, policies and value functions are often conditioned on observation histories instead of states. In these cases, it is not clear if the same kind of "stitching" is feasible at the level of observation histories, since two different trajectories would always have different histories, and thus "similar states" that might lead to effective stitching cannot be leveraged. Theoretically, we show that standard offline RL algorithms conditioned on observation histories suffer from poor sample complexity, in accordance with the above intuition. We then identify sufficient conditions under which offline RL can still be efficient -- intuitively, it needs to learn a compact representation of history comprising only features relevant for action selection. We introduce a bisimulation loss that captures the extent to which this happens, and propose that offline RL can explicitly optimize this loss to aid worst-case sample complexity. Empirically, we show that across a variety of tasks either our proposed loss improves performance, or the value of this loss is already minimized as a consequence of standard offline RL, indicating that it correlates well with good performance.

Poker, also known as Texas Hold'em, has always been a typical research target within imperfect information games (IIGs). IIGs have long served as a measure of artificial intelligence (AI) development. Representative prior works, such as DeepStack and Libratus heavily rely on counterfactual regret minimization (CFR) to tackle heads-up no-limit Poker. However, it is challenging for subsequent researchers to learn CFR from previous models and apply it to other real-world applications due to the expensive computational cost of CFR iterations. Additionally, CFR is difficult to apply to multi-player games due to the exponential growth of the game tree size. In this work, we introduce PokerGPT, an end-to-end solver for playing Texas Hold'em with arbitrary number of players and gaining high win rates, established on a lightweight large language model (LLM). PokerGPT only requires simple textual information of Poker games for generating decision-making advice, thus guaranteeing the convenient interaction between AI and humans. We mainly transform a set of textual records acquired from real games into prompts, and use them to fine-tune a lightweight pre-trained LLM using reinforcement learning human feedback technique. To improve fine-tuning performance, we conduct prompt engineering on raw data, including filtering useful information, selecting behaviors of players with high win rates, and further processing them into textual instruction using multiple prompt engineering techniques. Through the experiments, we demonstrate that PokerGPT outperforms previous approaches in terms of win rate, model size, training time, and response speed, indicating the great potential of LLMs in solving IIGs.

We propose a new framework for estimating generative models via an adversarial process, in which we simultaneously train two models: a generative model G that captures the data distribution, and a discriminative model D that estimates the probability that a sample came from the training data rather than G. The training procedure for G is to maximize the probability of D making a mistake. This framework corresponds to a minimax two-player game. In the space of arbitrary functions G and D, a unique solution exists, with G recovering the training data distribution and D equal to 1/2 everywhere. In the case where G and D are defined by multilayer perceptrons, the entire system can be trained with backpropagation. There is no need for any Markov chains or unrolled approximate inference networks during either training or generation of samples. Experiments demonstrate the potential of the framework through qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the generated samples.

We study in detail a one-dimensional lattice model of a continuum, conserved field (mass) that is transferred deterministically between neighbouring random sites. The model falls in a wider class of lattice models capturing the joint effect of random advection and diffusion and encompassing as specific cases, some models studied in the literature, like the Kang-Redner, Kipnis-Marchioro-Presutti, Takayasu-Taguchi, etc. The motivation for our setup comes from a straightforward interpretation as advection of particles in one-dimensional turbulence, but it is also related to a problem of synchronization of dynamical systems driven by common noise. For finite lattices, we study both the coalescence of an initially spread field (interpreted as roughening), and the statistical steady-state properties. We distinguish two main size-dependent regimes, depending on the strength of the diffusion term and on the lattice size. Using numerical simulations and mean-field approach, we study the statistics of the field. For weak diffusion, we unveil a characteristic hierarchical structure of the field. We also connect the model and the iterated function systems concept.

We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) of contextual bandit policies for large discrete action spaces where conventional importance-weighting approaches suffer from excessive variance. To circumvent this variance issue, we propose a new estimator, called OffCEM, that is based on the conjunct effect model (CEM), a novel decomposition of the causal effect into a cluster effect and a residual effect. OffCEM applies importance weighting only to action clusters and addresses the residual causal effect through model-based reward estimation. We show that the proposed estimator is unbiased under a new condition, called local correctness, which only requires that the residual-effect model preserves the relative expected reward differences of the actions within each cluster. To best leverage the CEM and local correctness, we also propose a new two-step procedure for performing model-based estimation that minimizes bias in the first step and variance in the second step. We find that the resulting OffCEM estimator substantially improves bias and variance compared to a range of conventional estimators. Experiments demonstrate that OffCEM provides substantial improvements in OPE especially in the presence of many actions.

Current methods for few-shot fine-tuning of pretrained masked language models (PLMs) require carefully engineered prompts and verbalizers for each new task to convert examples into a cloze-format that the PLM can score. In this work, we propose PERFECT, a simple and efficient method for few-shot fine-tuning of PLMs without relying on any such handcrafting, which is highly effective given as few as 32 data points. PERFECT makes two key design choices: First, we show that manually engineered task prompts can be replaced with task-specific adapters that enable sample-efficient fine-tuning and reduce memory and storage costs by roughly factors of 5 and 100, respectively. Second, instead of using handcrafted verbalizers, we learn new multi-token label embeddings during fine-tuning, which are not tied to the model vocabulary and which allow us to avoid complex auto-regressive decoding. These embeddings are not only learnable from limited data but also enable nearly 100x faster training and inference. Experiments on a wide range of few-shot NLP tasks demonstrate that PERFECT, while being simple and efficient, also outperforms existing state-of-the-art few-shot learning methods. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/perfect.git.

Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) estimation is one of the main challenges in causal inference with observational data. In addition to Machine Learning based-models, nonparametric estimators called meta-learners have been developed to estimate the CATE with the main advantage of not restraining the estimation to a specific supervised learning method. This task becomes, however, more complicated when the treatment is not binary as some limitations of the naive extensions emerge. This paper looks into meta-learners for estimating the heterogeneous effects of multi-valued treatments. We consider different meta-learners, and we carry out a theoretical analysis of their error upper bounds as functions of important parameters such as the number of treatment levels, showing that the naive extensions do not always provide satisfactory results. We introduce and discuss meta-learners that perform well as the number of treatments increases. We empirically confirm the strengths and weaknesses of those methods with synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been leveraged for asset pricing tasks and stock trading applications, enabling AI agents to generate investment decisions from unstructured financial data. However, most evaluations of LLM timing-based investing strategies are conducted on narrow timeframes and limited stock universes, overstating effectiveness due to survivorship and data-snooping biases. We critically assess their generalizability and robustness by proposing FINSABER, a backtesting framework evaluating timing-based strategies across longer periods and a larger universe of symbols. Systematic backtests over two decades and 100+ symbols reveal that previously reported LLM advantages deteriorate significantly under broader cross-section and over a longer-term evaluation. Our market regime analysis further demonstrates that LLM strategies are overly conservative in bull markets, underperforming passive benchmarks, and overly aggressive in bear markets, incurring heavy losses. These findings highlight the need to develop LLM strategies that are able to prioritise trend detection and regime-aware risk controls over mere scaling of framework complexity.

Randomized controlled trials are susceptible to imbalance on covariates predictive of the outcome. Rerandomization and deterministic treatment assignment are two proposed solutions. This paper explores the relationship between rerandomization and deterministic assignment, showing how deterministic assignment is an extreme case of rerandomization. The paper argues that in small experiments, both fully randomized and fully deterministic assignment have limitations. Instead, the researcher should consider setting the rerandomization acceptance probability based on an analysis of covariates and assumptions about the data structure to achieve an optimal alignment between randomness and balance. This allows for the calculation of minimum p-values along with valid permutation tests and fiducial intervals. The paper also introduces tools, including a new, open-source R package named fastrerandomize, to implement rerandomization and explore options for optimal rerandomization acceptance thresholds.

In causal inference, estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is critical for identifying how different subgroups respond to interventions, with broad applications in fields such as precision medicine and personalized advertising. Although HTE estimation methods aim to improve accuracy, how to provide explicit subgroup descriptions remains unclear, hindering data interpretation and strategic intervention management. In this paper, we propose CURLS, a novel rule learning method leveraging HTE, which can effectively describe subgroups with significant treatment effects. Specifically, we frame causal rule learning as a discrete optimization problem, finely balancing treatment effect with variance and considering the rule interpretability. We design an iterative procedure based on the minorize-maximization algorithm and solve a submodular lower bound as an approximation for the original. Quantitative experiments and qualitative case studies verify that compared with state-of-the-art methods, CURLS can find subgroups where the estimated and true effects are 16.1% and 13.8% higher and the variance is 12.0% smaller, while maintaining similar or better estimation accuracy and rule interpretability. Code is available at https://osf.io/zwp2k/.

Learning in strategy games (e.g. StarCraft, poker) requires the discovery of diverse policies. This is often achieved by iteratively training new policies against existing ones, growing a policy population that is robust to exploit. This iterative approach suffers from two issues in real-world games: a) under finite budget, approximate best-response operators at each iteration needs truncating, resulting in under-trained good-responses populating the population; b) repeated learning of basic skills at each iteration is wasteful and becomes intractable in the presence of increasingly strong opponents. In this work, we propose Neural Population Learning (NeuPL) as a solution to both issues. NeuPL offers convergence guarantees to a population of best-responses under mild assumptions. By representing a population of policies within a single conditional model, NeuPL enables transfer learning across policies. Empirically, we show the generality, improved performance and efficiency of NeuPL across several test domains. Most interestingly, we show that novel strategies become more accessible, not less, as the neural population expands.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for tasks that require complex reasoning. Most benchmarks focus on final outcomes but overlook the intermediate reasoning steps - such as planning, revision, and decision making under resource constraints. We argue that measuring these internal processes is essential for understanding model behavior and improving reliability. We propose using strategic games as a natural evaluation environment: closed, rule-based systems with clear states, limited resources, and automatic feedback. We introduce a framework that evaluates LLMs along three core dimensions: planning, revision, and resource-constrained decision making. To operationalize this, we define metrics beyond win rate, including overcorrection risk rate, correction success rate, improvement slope, and over-budget ratio. In 4320 adversarial rounds across 12 leading models, ChatGPT-o3-mini achieves the top composite score, with a win rate of 74.7 percent, a correction success rate of 78.6 percent, and an improvement slope of 0.041. By contrast, Qwen-Plus, despite an overcorrection risk rate of 81.6 percent, wins only 25.6 percent of its matches - primarily due to excessive resource use. We also observe a negative correlation between overcorrection risk rate and correction success rate (Pearson r = -0.51, p = 0.093), suggesting that more frequent edits do not always improve outcomes. Our findings highlight the value of assessing not only what LLMs decide but how they arrive at those decisions

Large language models have shown their ability to become effective few-shot learners with prompting, revoluting the paradigm of learning with data scarcity. However, this approach largely depends on the quality of prompt initialization, and always exhibits large variability among different runs. Such property makes prompt tuning highly unreliable and vulnerable to poorly constructed prompts, which limits its extension to more real-world applications. To tackle this issue, we propose to treat the hard prompt and soft prompt as separate inputs to mitigate noise brought by the prompt initialization. Furthermore, we optimize soft prompts with contrastive learning for utilizing class-aware information in the training process to maintain model performance. Experimental results demonstrate that \sysname outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 7.20% in accuracy and reduces the standard deviation by 2.02 on average. Furthermore, extensive experiments underscore its robustness and stability across 7 datasets covering various tasks.

We introduce the use of generative adversarial learning to compute equilibria in general game-theoretic settings, specifically the generalized Nash equilibrium (GNE) in pseudo-games, and its specific instantiation as the competitive equilibrium (CE) in Arrow-Debreu competitive economies. Pseudo-games are a generalization of games in which players' actions affect not only the payoffs of other players but also their feasible action spaces. Although the computation of GNE and CE is intractable in the worst-case, i.e., PPAD-hard, in practice, many applications only require solutions with high accuracy in expectation over a distribution of problem instances. We introduce Generative Adversarial Equilibrium Solvers (GAES): a family of generative adversarial neural networks that can learn GNE and CE from only a sample of problem instances. We provide computational and sample complexity bounds, and apply the framework to finding Nash equilibria in normal-form games, CE in Arrow-Debreu competitive economies, and GNE in an environmental economic model of the Kyoto mechanism.

We present an ultra-efficient post-training method for shortcutting large-scale pre-trained flow matching diffusion models into efficient few-step samplers, enabled by novel velocity field self-distillation. While shortcutting in flow matching, originally introduced by shortcut models, offers flexible trajectory-skipping capabilities, it requires a specialized step-size embedding incompatible with existing models unless retraining from scratchx2013a process nearly as costly as pretraining itself. Our key contribution is thus imparting a more aggressive shortcut mechanism to standard flow matching models (e.g., Flux), leveraging a unique distillation principle that obviates the need for step-size embedding. Working on the velocity field rather than sample space and learning rapidly from self-guided distillation in an online manner, our approach trains efficiently, e.g., producing a 3-step Flux less than one A100 day. Beyond distillation, our method can be incorporated into the pretraining stage itself, yielding models that inherently learn efficient, few-step flows without compromising quality. This capability also enables, to our knowledge, the first few-shot distillation method (e.g., 10 text-image pairs) for dozen-billion-parameter diffusion models, delivering state-of-the-art performance at almost free cost.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Generalized zero-shot learning (GZSL) is the problem of learning a classifier where some classes have samples and others are learned from side information, like semantic attributes or text description, in a zero-shot learning fashion (ZSL). Training a single model that operates in these two regimes simultaneously is challenging. Here we describe a probabilistic approach that breaks the model into three modular components, and then combines them in a consistent way. Specifically, our model consists of three classifiers: A "gating" model that makes soft decisions if a sample is from a "seen" class, and two experts: a ZSL expert, and an expert model for seen classes. We address two main difficulties in this approach: How to provide an accurate estimate of the gating probability without any training samples for unseen classes; and how to use expert predictions when it observes samples outside of its domain. The key insight to our approach is to pass information between the three models to improve each one's accuracy, while maintaining the modular structure. We test our approach, adaptive confidence smoothing (COSMO), on four standard GZSL benchmark datasets and find that it largely outperforms state-of-the-art GZSL models. COSMO is also the first model that closes the gap and surpasses the performance of generative models for GZSL, even-though it is a light-weight model that is much easier to train and tune. Notably, COSMO offers a new view for developing zero-shot models. Thanks to COSMO's modular structure, instead of trying to perform well both on seen and on unseen classes, models can focus on accurate classification of unseen classes, and later consider seen class models.

Learning to play optimally against any mixture over a diverse set of strategies is of important practical interests in competitive games. In this paper, we propose simplex-NeuPL that satisfies two desiderata simultaneously: i) learning a population of strategically diverse basis policies, represented by a single conditional network; ii) using the same network, learn best-responses to any mixture over the simplex of basis policies. We show that the resulting conditional policies incorporate prior information about their opponents effectively, enabling near optimal returns against arbitrary mixture policies in a game with tractable best-responses. We verify that such policies behave Bayes-optimally under uncertainty and offer insights in using this flexibility at test time. Finally, we offer evidence that learning best-responses to any mixture policies is an effective auxiliary task for strategic exploration, which, by itself, can lead to more performant populations.

Prompt tuning is a parameter-efficient method, which learns soft prompts and conditions frozen language models to perform specific downstream tasks. Though effective, prompt tuning under few-shot settings on the one hand heavily relies on a good initialization of soft prompts. On the other hand, it can easily overfit to few-shot training samples, thereby undermining generalizability. Existing works leverage pre-training or supervised meta-learning to initialize soft prompts but they fail to data-efficiently generalize to unseen downstream tasks. To address the above problems, this paper proposes a novel Self-sUpervised meta-Prompt learning framework with MEta-gradient Regularization for few-shot generalization (SUPMER). SUPMER leverages self-supervised meta-learning with a diverse set of well-designed meta-training tasks to learn a universal prompt initialization for efficient adaptation using only unlabeled data. Additionally, it jointly meta-learns a gradient regularization function to transform raw gradients into a domain-generalizable direction, thus alleviating the problem of overfitting. Extensive experiments show that SUPMER achieves better performance for different few-shot downstream tasks, and also exhibits a stronger domain generalization ability. The code for SUPMER will be available at https://github.com/beepkh/SUPMER.

Latent Consistency Model (LCM) extends the Consistency Model to the latent space and leverages the guided consistency distillation technique to achieve impressive performance in accelerating text-to-image synthesis. However, we observed that LCM struggles to generate images with both clarity and detailed intricacy. To address this limitation, we initially delve into and elucidate the underlying causes. Our investigation identifies that the primary issue stems from errors in three distinct areas. Consequently, we introduce Trajectory Consistency Distillation (TCD), which encompasses trajectory consistency function and strategic stochastic sampling. The trajectory consistency function diminishes the distillation errors by broadening the scope of the self-consistency boundary condition and endowing the TCD with the ability to accurately trace the entire trajectory of the Probability Flow ODE. Additionally, strategic stochastic sampling is specifically designed to circumvent the accumulated errors inherent in multi-step consistency sampling, which is meticulously tailored to complement the TCD model. Experiments demonstrate that TCD not only significantly enhances image quality at low NFEs but also yields more detailed results compared to the teacher model at high NFEs.

A multi-modal guardrail must effectively filter image content based on user-defined policies, identifying material that may be hateful, reinforce harmful stereotypes, contain explicit material, or spread misinformation. Deploying such guardrails in real-world applications, however, poses significant challenges. Users often require varied and highly customizable policies and typically cannot provide abundant examples for each custom policy. Consequently, an ideal guardrail should be scalable to the multiple policies and adaptable to evolving user standards with minimal retraining. Existing fine-tuning methods typically condition predictions on pre-defined policies, restricting their generalizability to new policies or necessitating extensive retraining to adapt. Conversely, training-free methods struggle with limited context lengths, making it difficult to incorporate all the policies comprehensively. To overcome these limitations, we propose to condition model's judgment on "precedents", which are the reasoning processes of prior data points similar to the given input. By leveraging precedents instead of fixed policies, our approach greatly enhances the flexibility and adaptability of the guardrail. In this paper, we introduce a critique-revise mechanism for collecting high-quality precedents and two strategies that utilize precedents for robust prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms previous methods across both few-shot and full-dataset scenarios and exhibits superior generalization to novel policies.

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and handles two key challenges where (1) the states are hidden and (2) the model is dynamic. Recognizing the lack of knowledge on the underlying causal mechanism and the possibility of infinitely many such mechanisms, we optimize over this space and compute upper and lower bounds on the counterfactual quantity of interest. Our work brings together ideas from causality, state-space models, simulation, and optimization, and we apply it on a breast cancer case study. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to compute lower and upper bounds on a counterfactual query in a dynamic latent-state model.

To effectively optimize and personalize treatments, it is necessary to investigate the heterogeneity of treatment effects. With the wide range of users being treated over many online controlled experiments, the typical approach of manually investigating each dimension of heterogeneity becomes overly cumbersome and prone to subjective human biases. We need an efficient way to search through thousands of experiments with hundreds of target covariates and hundreds of breakdown dimensions. In this paper, we propose a systematic paradigm for detecting, surfacing and characterizing heterogeneous treatment effects. First, we detect if treatment effect variation is present in an experiment, prior to specifying any breakdowns. Second, we surface the most relevant dimensions for heterogeneity. Finally, we characterize the heterogeneity beyond just the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) by studying the conditional distributions of the estimated individual treatment effects. We show the effectiveness of our methods using simulated data and empirical studies.

One of the most profound challenges of modern machine learning is performing well on the long-tail of rare and underrepresented features. Large general-purpose models are trained for many tasks, but work best on high-frequency use cases. After training, it is hard to adapt a model to perform well on specific use cases underrepresented in the training corpus. Relying on prompt engineering or few-shot examples to maximize the output quality on a particular test case can be frustrating, as models can be highly sensitive to small changes, react in unpredicted ways or rely on a fixed system prompt for maintaining performance. In this work, we ask: "Can we optimize our training protocols to both improve controllability and performance on underrepresented use cases at inference time?" We revisit the divide between training and inference techniques to improve long-tail performance while providing users with a set of control levers the model is trained to be responsive to. We create a detailed taxonomy of data characteristics and task provenance to explicitly control generation attributes and implicitly condition generations at inference time. We fine-tune a base model to infer these markers automatically, which makes them optional at inference time. This principled and flexible approach yields pronounced improvements in performance, especially on examples from the long tail of the training distribution. While we observe an average lift of 5.7% win rates in open-ended generation quality with our markers, we see over 9.1% gains in underrepresented domains. We also observe relative lifts of up to 14.1% on underrepresented tasks like CodeRepair and absolute improvements of 35.3% on length instruction following evaluations.

Inspired by Regularized Lottery Ticket Hypothesis (RLTH), which hypothesizes that there exist smooth (non-binary) subnetworks within a dense network that achieve the competitive performance of the dense network, we propose a few-shot class incremental learning (FSCIL) method referred to as Soft-SubNetworks (SoftNet). Our objective is to learn a sequence of sessions incrementally, where each session only includes a few training instances per class while preserving the knowledge of the previously learned ones. SoftNet jointly learns the model weights and adaptive non-binary soft masks at a base training session in which each mask consists of the major and minor subnetwork; the former aims to minimize catastrophic forgetting during training, and the latter aims to avoid overfitting to a few samples in each new training session. We provide comprehensive empirical validations demonstrating that our SoftNet effectively tackles the few-shot incremental learning problem by surpassing the performance of state-of-the-art baselines over benchmark datasets.

Existing few-shot learning (FSL) methods rely on training with a large labeled dataset, which prevents them from leveraging abundant unlabeled data. From an information-theoretic perspective, we propose an effective unsupervised FSL method, learning representations with self-supervision. Following the InfoMax principle, our method learns comprehensive representations by capturing the intrinsic structure of the data. Specifically, we maximize the mutual information (MI) of instances and their representations with a low-bias MI estimator to perform self-supervised pre-training. Rather than supervised pre-training focusing on the discriminable features of the seen classes, our self-supervised model has less bias toward the seen classes, resulting in better generalization for unseen classes. We explain that supervised pre-training and self-supervised pre-training are actually maximizing different MI objectives. Extensive experiments are further conducted to analyze their FSL performance with various training settings. Surprisingly, the results show that self-supervised pre-training can outperform supervised pre-training under the appropriate conditions. Compared with state-of-the-art FSL methods, our approach achieves comparable performance on widely used FSL benchmarks without any labels of the base classes.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have led to significant improvements in many tasks across various domains, such as code interpretation, response generation, and ambiguity handling. These LLMs, however, when upgrading, primarily prioritize enhancing user experience while neglecting security, privacy, and safety implications. Consequently, unintended vulnerabilities or biases can be introduced. Previous studies have predominantly focused on specific versions of the models and disregard the potential emergence of new attack vectors targeting the updated versions. Through the lens of adversarial examples within the in-context learning framework, this longitudinal study addresses this gap by conducting a comprehensive assessment of the robustness of successive versions of LLMs, vis-\`a-vis GPT-3.5. We conduct extensive experiments to analyze and understand the impact of the robustness in two distinct learning categories: zero-shot learning and few-shot learning. Our findings indicate that, in comparison to earlier versions of LLMs, the updated versions do not exhibit the anticipated level of robustness against adversarial attacks. In addition, our study emphasizes the increased effectiveness of synergized adversarial queries in most zero-shot learning and few-shot learning cases. We hope that our study can lead to a more refined assessment of the robustness of LLMs over time and provide valuable insights of these models for both developers and users.

We consider the task of identifying the Copeland winner(s) in a dueling bandits problem with ternary feedback. This is an underexplored but practically relevant variant of the conventional dueling bandits problem, in which, in addition to strict preference between two arms, one may observe feedback in the form of an indifference. We provide a lower bound on the sample complexity for any learning algorithm finding the Copeland winner(s) with a fixed error probability. Moreover, we propose POCOWISTA, an algorithm with a sample complexity that almost matches this lower bound, and which shows excellent empirical performance, even for the conventional dueling bandits problem. For the case where the preference probabilities satisfy a specific type of stochastic transitivity, we provide a refined version with an improved worst case sample complexity.

Dynamical generative models that produce samples through an iterative process, such as Flow Matching and denoising diffusion models, have seen widespread use, but there have not been many theoretically-sound methods for improving these models with reward fine-tuning. In this work, we cast reward fine-tuning as stochastic optimal control (SOC). Critically, we prove that a very specific memoryless noise schedule must be enforced during fine-tuning, in order to account for the dependency between the noise variable and the generated samples. We also propose a new algorithm named Adjoint Matching which outperforms existing SOC algorithms, by casting SOC problems as a regression problem. We find that our approach significantly improves over existing methods for reward fine-tuning, achieving better consistency, realism, and generalization to unseen human preference reward models, while retaining sample diversity.

In theoretical neuroscience, recent work leverages deep learning tools to explore how some network attributes critically influence its learning dynamics. Notably, initial weight distributions with small (resp. large) variance may yield a rich (resp. lazy) regime, where significant (resp. minor) changes to network states and representation are observed over the course of learning. However, in biology, neural circuit connectivity could exhibit a low-rank structure and therefore differs markedly from the random initializations generally used for these studies. As such, here we investigate how the structure of the initial weights -- in particular their effective rank -- influences the network learning regime. Through both empirical and theoretical analyses, we discover that high-rank initializations typically yield smaller network changes indicative of lazier learning, a finding we also confirm with experimentally-driven initial connectivity in recurrent neural networks. Conversely, low-rank initialization biases learning towards richer learning. Importantly, however, as an exception to this rule, we find lazier learning can still occur with a low-rank initialization that aligns with task and data statistics. Our research highlights the pivotal role of initial weight structures in shaping learning regimes, with implications for metabolic costs of plasticity and risks of catastrophic forgetting.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

In this paper, we extend mean-field Langevin dynamics to minimax optimization over probability distributions for the first time with symmetric and provably convergent updates. We propose mean-field Langevin averaged gradient (MFL-AG), a single-loop algorithm that implements gradient descent ascent in the distribution spaces with a novel weighted averaging, and establish average-iterate convergence to the mixed Nash equilibrium. We also study both time and particle discretization regimes and prove a new uniform-in-time propagation of chaos result which accounts for the dependency of the particle interactions on all previous distributions. Furthermore, we propose mean-field Langevin anchored best response (MFL-ABR), a symmetric double-loop algorithm based on best response dynamics with linear last-iterate convergence. Finally, we study applications to zero-sum Markov games and conduct simulations demonstrating long-term optimality.

In Reinforcement Learning (RL), an agent acts in an unknown environment to maximize the expected cumulative discounted sum of an external reward signal, i.e., the expected return. In practice, in many tasks of interest, such as policy optimization, the agent usually spends its interaction budget by collecting episodes of fixed length within a simulator (i.e., Monte Carlo simulation). However, given the discounted nature of the RL objective, this data collection strategy might not be the best option. Indeed, the rewards taken in early simulation steps weigh exponentially more than future rewards. Taking a cue from this intuition, in this paper, we design an a-priori budget allocation strategy that leads to the collection of trajectories of different lengths, i.e., truncated. The proposed approach provably minimizes the width of the confidence intervals around the empirical estimates of the expected return of a policy. After discussing the theoretical properties of our method, we make use of our trajectory truncation mechanism to extend Policy Optimization via Importance Sampling (POIS, Metelli et al., 2018) algorithm. Finally, we conduct a numerical comparison between our algorithm and POIS: the results are consistent with our theory and show that an appropriate truncation of the trajectories can succeed in improving performance.

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

Large language models (LLMs) offer impressive performance in various zero-shot and few-shot tasks. However, their success in zero-shot and few-shot settings may be affected by task contamination, a potential limitation that has not been thoroughly examined. This paper investigates how zero-shot and few-shot performance of LLMs has changed chronologically over time. Utilizing GPT-3 series models and several other recent open-sourced LLMs, and controlling for dataset difficulty, we find that on datasets released before the LLM training data creation date, LLMs perform surprisingly better than on datasets released after. This strongly indicates that, for many LLMs, there exists task contamination on zero-shot and few-shot evaluation for datasets released prior to the LLMs' training data creation date. Additionally, we utilize training data inspection, task example extraction, and a membership inference attack, which reveal further evidence of task contamination. Importantly, we find that for classification tasks with no possibility of task contamination, LLMs rarely demonstrate statistically significant improvements over simple majority baselines, in both zero and few-shot settings.

Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing. There are a large number of methods to predict the effect of an existing intervention based on historical data from individuals who received it. However, in many settings it is important to predict the effects of novel interventions (e.g., a newly invented drug), which these methods do not address. Here, we consider zero-shot causal learning: predicting the personalized effects of a novel intervention. We propose CaML, a causal meta-learning framework which formulates the personalized prediction of each intervention's effect as a task. CaML trains a single meta-model across thousands of tasks, each constructed by sampling an intervention, along with its recipients and nonrecipients. By leveraging both intervention information (e.g., a drug's attributes) and individual features~(e.g., a patient's history), CaML is able to predict the personalized effects of novel interventions that do not exist at the time of training. Experimental results on real world datasets in large-scale medical claims and cell-line perturbations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Most strikingly, CaML's zero-shot predictions outperform even strong baselines trained directly on data from the test interventions.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

We present a novel approach for generating minority samples that live on low-density regions of a data manifold. Our framework is built upon diffusion models, leveraging the principle of guided sampling that incorporates an arbitrary energy-based guidance during inference time. The key defining feature of our sampler lies in its self-contained nature, \ie, implementable solely with a pretrained model. This distinguishes our sampler from existing techniques that require expensive additional components (like external classifiers) for minority generation. Specifically, we first estimate the likelihood of features within an intermediate latent sample by evaluating a reconstruction loss w.r.t. its posterior mean. The generation then proceeds with the minimization of the estimated likelihood, thereby encouraging the emergence of minority features in the latent samples of subsequent timesteps. To further improve the performance of our sampler, we provide several time-scheduling techniques that properly manage the influence of guidance over inference steps. Experiments on benchmark real datasets demonstrate that our approach can greatly improve the capability of creating realistic low-likelihood minority instances over the existing techniques without the reliance on costly additional elements. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/sg-minority.

The Instruction-Driven Game Engine (IDGE) project aims to democratize game development by enabling a large language model (LLM) to follow free-form game descriptions and generate game-play processes. The IDGE allows users to create games simply by natural language instructions, which significantly lowers the barrier for game development. We approach the learning process for IDGEs as a Next State Prediction task, wherein the model autoregressively predicts the game states given player actions. The computation of game states must be precise; otherwise, slight errors could corrupt the game-play experience. This is challenging because of the gap between stability and diversity. To address this, we train the IDGE in a curriculum manner that progressively increases its exposure to complex scenarios. Our initial progress lies in developing an IDGE for Poker, which not only supports a wide range of poker variants but also allows for highly individualized new poker games through natural language inputs. This work lays the groundwork for future advancements in transforming how games are created and played.

We consider the problem of decentralized multi-agent reinforcement learning in Markov games. A fundamental question is whether there exist algorithms that, when adopted by all agents and run independently in a decentralized fashion, lead to no-regret for each player, analogous to celebrated convergence results in normal-form games. While recent work has shown that such algorithms exist for restricted settings (notably, when regret is defined with respect to deviations to Markovian policies), the question of whether independent no-regret learning can be achieved in the standard Markov game framework was open. We provide a decisive negative resolution this problem, both from a computational and statistical perspective. We show that: - Under the widely-believed assumption that PPAD-hard problems cannot be solved in polynomial time, there is no polynomial-time algorithm that attains no-regret in general-sum Markov games when executed independently by all players, even when the game is known to the algorithm designer and the number of players is a small constant. - When the game is unknown, no algorithm, regardless of computational efficiency, can achieve no-regret without observing a number of episodes that is exponential in the number of players. Perhaps surprisingly, our lower bounds hold even for seemingly easier setting in which all agents are controlled by a a centralized algorithm. They are proven via lower bounds for a simpler problem we refer to as SparseCCE, in which the goal is to compute a coarse correlated equilibrium that is sparse in the sense that it can be represented as a mixture of a small number of product policies. The crux of our approach is a novel application of aggregation techniques from online learning, whereby we show that any algorithm for the SparseCCE problem can be used to compute approximate Nash equilibria for non-zero sum normal-form games.

Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) can be accurately fine-tuned for downstream text processing tasks. Recently, researchers have introduced several parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods that optimize input prompts or adjust a small number of model parameters (e.g LoRA). In this study, we explore the impact of altering the input text of the original task in conjunction with parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods. To most effectively rewrite the input text, we train a few-shot paraphrase model with a Maximum-Marginal Likelihood objective. Using six few-shot text classification datasets, we show that enriching data with paraphrases at train and test time enhances the performance beyond what can be achieved with parameter-efficient fine-tuning alone.

We present Virtual Prompt Injection (VPI) for instruction-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs). VPI allows an attacker-specified virtual prompt to steer the model behavior under specific trigger scenario without any explicit injection in model input. For instance, if an LLM is compromised with the virtual prompt "Describe Joe Biden negatively." for Joe Biden-related instructions, then any service deploying this model will propagate biased views when handling user queries related to Joe Biden. VPI is especially harmful for two primary reasons. Firstly, the attacker can take fine-grained control over LLM behaviors by defining various virtual prompts, exploiting LLMs' proficiency in following instructions. Secondly, this control is achieved without any interaction from the attacker while the model is in service, leading to persistent attack. To demonstrate the threat, we propose a simple method for performing VPI by poisoning the model's instruction tuning data. We find that our proposed method is highly effective in steering the LLM with VPI. For example, by injecting only 52 poisoned examples (0.1% of the training data size) into the instruction tuning data, the percentage of negative responses given by the trained model on Joe Biden-related queries change from 0% to 40%. We thus highlight the necessity of ensuring the integrity of the instruction-tuning data as little poisoned data can cause stealthy and persistent harm to the deployed model. We further explore the possible defenses and identify data filtering as an effective way to defend against the poisoning attacks. Our project page is available at https://poison-llm.github.io.

Conjoint analysis, an application of factorial experimental design, is a popular tool in social science research for studying multidimensional preferences. In such experiments in the political analysis context, respondents are asked to choose between two hypothetical political candidates with randomly selected features, which can include partisanship, policy positions, gender and race. We consider the problem of identifying optimal candidate profiles. Because the number of unique feature combinations far exceeds the total number of observations in a typical conjoint experiment, it is impossible to determine the optimal profile exactly. To address this identification challenge, we derive an optimal stochastic intervention that represents a probability distribution of various attributes aimed at achieving the most favorable average outcome. We first consider an environment where one political party optimizes their candidate selection. We then move to the more realistic case where two political parties optimize their own candidate selection simultaneously and in opposition to each other. We apply the proposed methodology to an existing candidate choice conjoint experiment concerning vote choice for US president. We find that, in contrast to the non-adversarial approach, expected outcomes in the adversarial regime fall within range of historical electoral outcomes, with optimal strategies suggested by the method more likely to match the actual observed candidates compared to strategies derived from a non-adversarial approach. These findings indicate that incorporating adversarial dynamics into conjoint analysis may yield unique insight into social science data from experiments.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for History Matching (HM) to tune a climate system with multi-scale dynamics. By considering a toy climate model, namely, the two-scale Lorenz96 model and producing experiments in perfect-model setting, we explore in detail how several built-in choices need to be carefully tested. We also demonstrate the importance of introducing physical expertise in the range of parameters, a priori to running HM. Finally we revisit a classical procedure in climate model tuning, that consists of tuning the slow and fast components separately. By doing so in the Lorenz96 model, we illustrate the non-uniqueness of plausible parameters and highlight the specificity of metrics emerging from the coupling. This paper contributes also to bridging the communities of uncertainty quantification, machine learning and climate modeling, by making connections between the terms used by each community for the same concept and presenting promising collaboration avenues that would benefit climate modeling research.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.