Daily Papers

Language models are increasingly capable, yet still fail at a seemingly simple task of multi-digit multiplication. In this work, we study why, by reverse-engineering a model that successfully learns multiplication via implicit chain-of-thought, and report three findings: (1) Evidence of long-range structure: Logit attributions and linear probes indicate that the model encodes the necessary long-range dependencies for multi-digit multiplication. (2) Mechanism: the model encodes long-range dependencies using attention to construct a directed acyclic graph to ``cache'' and ``retrieve'' pairwise partial products. (3) Geometry: the model implements partial products in attention heads by forming Minkowski sums between pairs of digits, and digits are represented using a Fourier basis, both of which are intuitive and efficient representations that the standard fine-tuning model lacks. With these insights, we revisit the learning dynamics of standard fine-tuning and find that the model converges to a local optimum that lacks the required long-range dependencies. We further validate this understanding by introducing an auxiliary loss that predicts the ``running sum'' via a linear regression probe, which provides an inductive bias that enables the model to successfully learn multi-digit multiplication. In summary, by reverse-engineering the mechanisms of an implicit chain-of-thought model we uncover a pitfall for learning long-range dependencies in Transformers and provide an example of how the correct inductive bias can address this issue.

Pretrained transformers exhibit the remarkable ability of in-context learning (ICL): they can learn tasks from just a few examples provided in the prompt without updating any weights. This raises a foundational question: can ICL solve fundamentally new tasks that are very different from those seen during pretraining? To probe this question, we examine ICL's performance on linear regression while varying the diversity of tasks in the pretraining dataset. We empirically demonstrate a task diversity threshold for the emergence of ICL. Below this threshold, the pretrained transformer cannot solve unseen regression tasks, instead behaving like a Bayesian estimator with the non-diverse pretraining task distribution as the prior. Beyond this threshold, the transformer significantly outperforms this estimator; its behavior aligns with that of ridge regression, corresponding to a Gaussian prior over all tasks, including those not seen during pretraining. Thus, when pretrained on data with task diversity greater than the threshold, transformers can optimally solve fundamentally new tasks in-context. Importantly, this capability hinges on it deviating from the Bayes optimal estimator with the pretraining distribution as the prior. This study also explores the effect of regularization, model capacity and task structure and underscores, in a concrete example, the critical role of task diversity, alongside data and model scale, in the emergence of ICL. Code is available at https://github.com/mansheej/icl-task-diversity.

Data augmentation is critical to the empirical success of modern self-supervised representation learning, such as contrastive learning and masked language modeling. However, a theoretical understanding of the exact role of augmentation remains limited. Recent work has built the connection between self-supervised learning and the approximation of the top eigenspace of a graph Laplacian operator, suggesting that learning a linear probe atop such representation can be connected to RKHS regression. Building on this insight, this work delves into a statistical analysis of augmentation-based pretraining. Starting from the isometry property, a geometric characterization of the target function given by the augmentation, we disentangle the effects of the model and the augmentation, and prove two generalization bounds that are free of model complexity. Our first bound works for an arbitrary encoder, where the prediction error is decomposed as the sum of an estimation error incurred by fitting a linear probe with RKHS regression, and an approximation error entailed by RKHS approximation. Our second bound specifically addresses the case where the encoder is near-optimal, that is it approximates the top-d eigenspace of the RKHS induced by the augmentation. A key ingredient in our analysis is the augmentation complexity, which we use to quantitatively compare different augmentations and analyze their impact on downstream performance.

In deep learning, often the training process finds an interpolator (a solution with 0 training loss), but the test loss is still low. This phenomenon, known as benign overfitting, is a major mystery that received a lot of recent attention. One common mechanism for benign overfitting is implicit regularization, where the training process leads to additional properties for the interpolator, often characterized by minimizing certain norms. However, even for a simple sparse linear regression problem y = beta^{*top} x +xi with sparse beta^*, neither minimum ell_1 or ell_2 norm interpolator gives the optimal test loss. In this work, we give a different parametrization of the model which leads to a new implicit regularization effect that combines the benefit of ell_1 and ell_2 interpolators. We show that training our new model via gradient descent leads to an interpolator with near-optimal test loss. Our result is based on careful analysis of the training dynamics and provides another example of implicit regularization effect that goes beyond norm minimization.

In this paper, we revisit the problem of sparse linear regression in the local differential privacy (LDP) model. Existing research in the non-interactive and sequentially local models has focused on obtaining the lower bounds for the case where the underlying parameter is 1-sparse, and extending such bounds to the more general k-sparse case has proven to be challenging. Moreover, it is unclear whether efficient non-interactive LDP (NLDP) algorithms exist. To address these issues, we first consider the problem in the epsilon non-interactive LDP model and provide a lower bound of Omega(sqrt{dklog d}{nepsilon}) on the ell_2-norm estimation error for sub-Gaussian data, where n is the sample size and d is the dimension of the space. We propose an innovative NLDP algorithm, the very first of its kind for the problem. As a remarkable outcome, this algorithm also yields a novel and highly efficient estimator as a valuable by-product. Our algorithm achieves an upper bound of O({dsqrt{k}{nepsilon}}) for the estimation error when the data is sub-Gaussian, which can be further improved by a factor of O(d) if the server has additional public but unlabeled data. For the sequentially interactive LDP model, we show a similar lower bound of Omega({sqrt{dk}{nepsilon}}). As for the upper bound, we rectify a previous method and show that it is possible to achieve a bound of O(ksqrt{d}{nepsilon}). Our findings reveal fundamental differences between the non-private case, central DP model, and local DP model in the sparse linear regression problem.

Regression Mean (RegMean), an approach that formulates model merging as a linear regression problem, aims to find the optimal weights for each linear layer in the merge model by minimizing the discrepancy in predictions between the merge and candidate models. RegMean provides a precise closed-form solution for the merging problem; therefore, it offers explainability and computational efficiency. However, RegMean merges each linear layer independently, overlooking how the features and information in the earlier layers propagate through the layers and influence the final prediction in the merge model. In this paper, we introduce RegMean++, a simple yet effective alternative to RegMean, that explicitly incorporates both intra- and cross-layer dependencies between merge models' layers into RegMean's objective. By accounting for these dependencies, RegMean++ better captures the behaviors of the merge model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RegMean++ consistently outperforms RegMean across diverse settings, including in-domain (ID) and out-of-domain (OOD) generalization, sequential merging, large-scale tasks, and robustness under several types of distribution shifts. Furthermore, RegMean++ achieves competitive or state-of-the-art performance compared to various recent advanced model merging methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/nthehai01/RegMean-plusplus.

Attention-based neural networks such as transformers have demonstrated a remarkable ability to exhibit in-context learning (ICL): Given a short prompt sequence of tokens from an unseen task, they can formulate relevant per-token and next-token predictions without any parameter updates. By embedding a sequence of labeled training data and unlabeled test data as a prompt, this allows for transformers to behave like supervised learning algorithms. Indeed, recent work has shown that when training transformer architectures over random instances of linear regression problems, these models' predictions mimic those of ordinary least squares. Towards understanding the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon, we investigate the dynamics of ICL in transformers with a single linear self-attention layer trained by gradient flow on linear regression tasks. We show that despite non-convexity, gradient flow with a suitable random initialization finds a global minimum of the objective function. At this global minimum, when given a test prompt of labeled examples from a new prediction task, the transformer achieves prediction error competitive with the best linear predictor over the test prompt distribution. We additionally characterize the robustness of the trained transformer to a variety of distribution shifts and show that although a number of shifts are tolerated, shifts in the covariate distribution of the prompts are not. Motivated by this, we consider a generalized ICL setting where the covariate distributions can vary across prompts. We show that although gradient flow succeeds at finding a global minimum in this setting, the trained transformer is still brittle under mild covariate shifts. We complement this finding with experiments on large, nonlinear transformer architectures which we show are more robust under covariate shifts.

Pretraining large language models (LLMs) on vast and heterogeneous datasets is crucial for achieving state-of-the-art performance across diverse downstream tasks. However, current training paradigms treat all samples equally, overlooking the importance or relevance of individual samples throughout the training process. Existing reweighting strategies, which primarily focus on group-level data importance, fail to leverage fine-grained instance-level information and do not adapt dynamically to individual sample importance as training progresses. In this paper, we introduce novel algorithms for dynamic, instance-level data reweighting aimed at improving both the efficiency and effectiveness of LLM pretraining. Our methods adjust the weight of each training sample based on its loss value in an online fashion, allowing the model to dynamically focus on more informative or important samples at the current training stage. In particular, our framework allows us to systematically devise reweighting strategies deprioritizing redundant or uninformative data, which we find tend to work best. Furthermore, we develop a new theoretical framework for analyzing the impact of loss-based reweighting on the convergence of gradient-based optimization, providing the first formal characterization of how these strategies affect convergence bounds. We empirically validate our approach across a spectrum of tasks, from pretraining 7B and 1.4B parameter LLMs to smaller-scale language models and linear regression problems, demonstrating that our loss-based reweighting approach can lead to faster convergence and significantly improved performance.

This research enhances linear regression models by integrating a Kalman filter and analysing curve areas to minimize loss. The goal is to develop an optimal linear regression equation using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for weight updating. Our approach involves a stepwise process, starting with user-defined parameters. The linear regression model is trained using SGD, tracking weights and loss separately and zipping them finally. A Kalman filter is then trained based on weight and loss arrays to predict the next consolidated weights. Predictions result from multiplying input averages with weights, evaluated for loss to form a weight-versus-loss curve. The curve's equation is derived using the two-point formula, and area under the curve is calculated via integration. The linear regression equation with minimum area becomes the optimal curve for prediction. Benefits include avoiding constant weight updates via gradient descent and working with partial datasets, unlike methods needing the entire set. However, computational complexity should be considered. The Kalman filter's accuracy might diminish beyond a certain prediction range.

We study the problem of online generalized linear regression in the stochastic setting, where the label is generated from a generalized linear model with possibly unbounded additive noise. We provide a sharp analysis of the classical follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) algorithm to cope with the label noise. More specifically, for sigma-sub-Gaussian label noise, our analysis provides a regret upper bound of O(sigma^2 d log T) + o(log T), where d is the dimension of the input vector, T is the total number of rounds. We also prove a Omega(sigma^2dlog(T/d)) lower bound for stochastic online linear regression, which indicates that our upper bound is nearly optimal. In addition, we extend our analysis to a more refined Bernstein noise condition. As an application, we study generalized linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise and propose an algorithm based on FTRL to achieve the first variance-aware regret bound.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

Neural sequence models, especially transformers, exhibit a remarkable capacity for in-context learning. They can construct new predictors from sequences of labeled examples (x, f(x)) presented in the input without further parameter updates. We investigate the hypothesis that transformer-based in-context learners implement standard learning algorithms implicitly, by encoding smaller models in their activations, and updating these implicit models as new examples appear in the context. Using linear regression as a prototypical problem, we offer three sources of evidence for this hypothesis. First, we prove by construction that transformers can implement learning algorithms for linear models based on gradient descent and closed-form ridge regression. Second, we show that trained in-context learners closely match the predictors computed by gradient descent, ridge regression, and exact least-squares regression, transitioning between different predictors as transformer depth and dataset noise vary, and converging to Bayesian estimators for large widths and depths. Third, we present preliminary evidence that in-context learners share algorithmic features with these predictors: learners' late layers non-linearly encode weight vectors and moment matrices. These results suggest that in-context learning is understandable in algorithmic terms, and that (at least in the linear case) learners may rediscover standard estimation algorithms. Code and reference implementations are released at https://github.com/ekinakyurek/google-research/blob/master/incontext.

Understanding the properties of neural networks trained via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is at the heart of the theory of deep learning. In this work, we take a mean-field view, and consider a two-layer ReLU network trained via SGD for a univariate regularized regression problem. Our main result is that SGD is biased towards a simple solution: at convergence, the ReLU network implements a piecewise linear map of the inputs, and the number of "knot" points - i.e., points where the tangent of the ReLU network estimator changes - between two consecutive training inputs is at most three. In particular, as the number of neurons of the network grows, the SGD dynamics is captured by the solution of a gradient flow and, at convergence, the distribution of the weights approaches the unique minimizer of a related free energy, which has a Gibbs form. Our key technical contribution consists in the analysis of the estimator resulting from this minimizer: we show that its second derivative vanishes everywhere, except at some specific locations which represent the "knot" points. We also provide empirical evidence that knots at locations distinct from the data points might occur, as predicted by our theory.

Conventional wisdom in deep learning states that increasing depth improves expressiveness but complicates optimization. This paper suggests that, sometimes, increasing depth can speed up optimization. The effect of depth on optimization is decoupled from expressiveness by focusing on settings where additional layers amount to overparameterization - linear neural networks, a well-studied model. Theoretical analysis, as well as experiments, show that here depth acts as a preconditioner which may accelerate convergence. Even on simple convex problems such as linear regression with ell_p loss, p>2, gradient descent can benefit from transitioning to a non-convex overparameterized objective, more than it would from some common acceleration schemes. We also prove that it is mathematically impossible to obtain the acceleration effect of overparametrization via gradients of any regularizer.

Optimization is ubiquitous. While derivative-based algorithms have been powerful tools for various problems, the absence of gradient imposes challenges on many real-world applications. In this work, we propose Optimization by PROmpting (OPRO), a simple and effective approach to leverage large language models (LLMs) as optimizers, where the optimization task is described in natural language. In each optimization step, the LLM generates new solutions from the prompt that contains previously generated solutions with their values, then the new solutions are evaluated and added to the prompt for the next optimization step. We first showcase OPRO on linear regression and traveling salesman problems, then move on to prompt optimization where the goal is to find instructions that maximize the task accuracy. With a variety of LLMs, we demonstrate that the best prompts optimized by OPRO outperform human-designed prompts by up to 8% on GSM8K, and by up to 50% on Big-Bench Hard tasks.

We study the problem of online prediction, in which at each time step t, an individual x_t arrives, whose label we must predict. Each individual is associated with various groups, defined based on their features such as age, sex, race etc., which may intersect. Our goal is to make predictions that have regret guarantees not just overall but also simultaneously on each sub-sequence comprised of the members of any single group. Previous work such as [Blum & Lykouris] and [Lee et al] provide attractive regret guarantees for these problems; however, these are computationally intractable on large model classes. We show that a simple modification of the sleeping experts technique of [Blum & Lykouris] yields an efficient reduction to the well-understood problem of obtaining diminishing external regret absent group considerations. Our approach gives similar regret guarantees compared to [Blum & Lykouris]; however, we run in time linear in the number of groups, and are oracle-efficient in the hypothesis class. This in particular implies that our algorithm is efficient whenever the number of groups is polynomially bounded and the external-regret problem can be solved efficiently, an improvement on [Blum & Lykouris]'s stronger condition that the model class must be small. Our approach can handle online linear regression and online combinatorial optimization problems like online shortest paths. Beyond providing theoretical regret bounds, we evaluate this algorithm with an extensive set of experiments on synthetic data and on two real data sets -- Medical costs and the Adult income dataset, both instantiated with intersecting groups defined in terms of race, sex, and other demographic characteristics. We find that uniformly across groups, our algorithm gives substantial error improvements compared to running a standard online linear regression algorithm with no groupwise regret guarantees.

Existing monocular depth estimation methods have achieved excellent robustness in diverse scenes, but they can only retrieve affine-invariant depth, up to an unknown scale and shift. However, in some video-based scenarios such as video depth estimation and 3D scene reconstruction from a video, the unknown scale and shift residing in per-frame prediction may cause the depth inconsistency. To solve this problem, we propose a locally weighted linear regression method to recover the scale and shift with very sparse anchor points, which ensures the scale consistency along consecutive frames. Extensive experiments show that our method can boost the performance of existing state-of-the-art approaches by 50% at most over several zero-shot benchmarks. Besides, we merge over 6.3 million RGBD images to train strong and robust depth models. Our produced ResNet50-backbone model even outperforms the state-of-the-art DPT ViT-Large model. Combining with geometry-based reconstruction methods, we formulate a new dense 3D scene reconstruction pipeline, which benefits from both the scale consistency of sparse points and the robustness of monocular methods. By performing the simple per-frame prediction over a video, the accurate 3D scene shape can be recovered.

In this paper, we introduce the gated perceptron, an enhancement of the conventional perceptron, which incorporates an additional input computed as the product of the existing inputs. This allows the perceptron to capture non-linear interactions between features, significantly improving its ability to classify and regress on complex datasets. We explore its application in both linear and non-linear regression tasks using the Iris dataset, as well as binary and multi-class classification problems, including the PIMA Indian dataset and Breast Cancer Wisconsin dataset. Our results demonstrate that the gated perceptron can generate more distinct decision regions compared to traditional perceptrons, enhancing its classification capabilities, particularly in handling non-linear data. Performance comparisons show that the gated perceptron competes with state-of-the-art classifiers while maintaining a simple architecture.

We revisit the well-studied problem of approximating a matrix product, A^TB, based on small space sketches S(A) and S(B) of A in R^{n times d} and Bin R^{n times m}. We are interested in the setting where the sketches must be computed independently of each other, except for the use of a shared random seed. We prove that, when A and B are sparse, methods based on coordinated random sampling can outperform classical linear sketching approaches, like Johnson-Lindenstrauss Projection or CountSketch. For example, to obtain Frobenius norm error epsilon|A|_F|B|_F, coordinated sampling requires sketches of size O(s/epsilon^2) when A and B have at most s leq d,m non-zeros per row. In contrast, linear sketching leads to sketches of size O(d/epsilon^2) and O(m/epsilon^2) for A and B. We empirically evaluate our approach on two applications: 1) distributed linear regression in databases, a problem motivated by tasks like dataset discovery and augmentation, and 2) approximating attention matrices in transformer-based language models. In both cases, our sampling algorithms yield an order of magnitude improvement over linear sketching.

Testing and evaluation is a critical step in the development and deployment of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). Due to the black-box property and various types of CAVs, how to test and evaluate CAVs adaptively remains a major challenge. Many approaches have been proposed to adaptively generate testing scenarios during the testing process. However, most existing approaches cannot be applied to complex scenarios, where the variables needed to define such scenarios are high dimensional. Towards filling this gap, the adaptive testing with sparse control variates method is proposed in this paper. Instead of adaptively generating testing scenarios, our approach evaluates CAVs' performances by adaptively utilizing the testing results. Specifically, each testing result is adjusted using multiple linear regression techniques based on control variates. As the regression coefficients can be adaptively optimized for the CAV under test, using the adjusted results can reduce the estimation variance, compared with using the testing results directly. To overcome the high dimensionality challenge, sparse control variates are utilized only for the critical variables of testing scenarios. To validate the proposed method, the high-dimensional overtaking scenarios are investigated, and the results demonstrate that our approach can further accelerate the evaluation process by about 30 times.

In-context learning is one of the surprising and useful features of large language models. How it works is an active area of research. Recently, stylized meta-learning-like setups have been devised that train these models on a sequence of input-output pairs (x, f(x)) from a function class using the language modeling loss and observe generalization to unseen functions from the same class. One of the main discoveries in this line of research has been that for several problems such as linear regression, trained transformers learn algorithms for learning functions in context. However, the inductive biases of these models resulting in this behavior are not clearly understood. A model with unlimited training data and compute is a Bayesian predictor: it learns the pretraining distribution. It has been shown that high-capacity transformers mimic the Bayesian predictor for linear regression. In this paper, we show empirical evidence of transformers exhibiting the behavior of this ideal learner across different linear and non-linear function classes. We also extend the previous setups to work in the multitask setting and verify that transformers can do in-context learning in this setup as well and the Bayesian perspective sheds light on this setting also. Finally, via the example of learning Fourier series, we study the inductive bias for in-context learning. We find that in-context learning may or may not have simplicity bias depending on the pretraining data distribution.

Large-scale neural language models exhibit a remarkable capacity for in-context learning (ICL): they can infer novel functions from datasets provided as input. Most of our current understanding of when and how ICL arises comes from LMs trained on extremely simple learning problems like linear regression and associative recall. There remains a significant gap between these model problems and the "real" ICL exhibited by LMs trained on large text corpora, which involves not just retrieval and function approximation but free-form generation of language and other structured outputs. In this paper, we study ICL through the lens of a new family of model problems we term in context language learning (ICLL). In ICLL, LMs are presented with a set of strings from a formal language, and must generate additional strings from the same language. We focus on in-context learning of regular languages generated by random finite automata. We evaluate a diverse set of neural sequence models (including several RNNs, Transformers, and state-space model variants) on regular ICLL tasks, aiming to answer three questions: (1) Which model classes are empirically capable of ICLL? (2) What algorithmic solutions do successful models implement to perform ICLL? (3) What architectural changes can improve ICLL in less performant models? We first show that Transformers significantly outperform neural sequence models with recurrent or convolutional representations on ICLL tasks. Next, we provide evidence that their ability to do so relies on specialized "n-gram heads" (higher-order variants of induction heads) that compute input-conditional next-token distributions. Finally, we show that hard-wiring these heads into neural models improves performance not just on ICLL, but natural language modeling -- improving the perplexity of 340M-parameter models by up to 1.14 points (6.7%) on the SlimPajama dataset.

Monocular depth estimation (MDE) is a fundamental topic of geometric computer vision and a core technique for many downstream applications. Recently, several methods reframe the MDE as a classification-regression problem where a linear combination of probabilistic distribution and bin centers is used to predict depth. In this paper, we propose a novel concept of iterative elastic bins (IEBins) for the classification-regression-based MDE. The proposed IEBins aims to search for high-quality depth by progressively optimizing the search range, which involves multiple stages and each stage performs a finer-grained depth search in the target bin on top of its previous stage. To alleviate the possible error accumulation during the iterative process, we utilize a novel elastic target bin to replace the original target bin, the width of which is adjusted elastically based on the depth uncertainty. Furthermore, we develop a dedicated framework composed of a feature extractor and an iterative optimizer that has powerful temporal context modeling capabilities benefiting from the GRU-based architecture. Extensive experiments on the KITTI, NYU-Depth-v2 and SUN RGB-D datasets demonstrate that the proposed method surpasses prior state-of-the-art competitors. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/ShuweiShao/IEBins.

The matching formulation makes it naturally hard for the stereo matching to handle ill-posed regions like occlusions and non-Lambertian surfaces. Fusing monocular priors has been proven helpful for ill-posed matching, but the biased monocular prior learned from small stereo datasets constrains the generalization. Recently, stereo matching has progressed by leveraging the unbiased monocular prior from the vision foundation model (VFM) to improve the generalization in ill-posed regions. We dive into the fusion process and observe three main problems limiting the fusion of the VFM monocular prior. The first problem is the misalignment between affine-invariant relative monocular depth and absolute depth of disparity. Besides, when we use the monocular feature in an iterative update structure, the over-confidence in the disparity update leads to local optima results. A direct fusion of a monocular depth map could alleviate the local optima problem, but noisy disparity results computed at the first several iterations will misguide the fusion. In this paper, we propose a binary local ordering map to guide the fusion, which converts the depth map into a binary relative format, unifying the relative and absolute depth representation. The computed local ordering map is also used to re-weight the initial disparity update, resolving the local optima and noisy problem. In addition, we formulate the final direct fusion of monocular depth to the disparity as a registration problem, where a pixel-wise linear regression module can globally and adaptively align them. Our method fully exploits the monocular prior to support stereo matching results effectively and efficiently. We significantly improve the performance from the experiments when generalizing from SceneFlow to Middlebury and Booster datasets while barely reducing the efficiency.

We address the computational challenges of solving parametric PDEs with non parametrized geometric variations and non-reducible problems, such as those involving shocks and discontinuities of variable positions. Traditional dimensionality reduction methods like POD struggle with these scenarios due to slowly decaying Kolmogorov widths. To overcome this, we propose a novel non-linear dimensionality reduction technique to reduce the required modes for representation. The non-linear reduction is obtained through a POD after applying a transformation on the fields, which we call optimal mappings, and is a solution to an optimization problem in infinite dimension. The proposed learning framework combines morphing techniques, non-linear dimensionality reduction, and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). The problem is reformulated on a reference geometry before applying the dimensionality reduction. Our method learns both the optimal mapping, and the solution fields, using a series of GPR models, enabling efficient and accurate modeling of complex parametric PDEs with geometrical variability. The results obtained concur with current state-of-the-art models. We mainly compare our method with the winning solution of the ML4CFD NeurIPS 2024 competition.

This paper studies the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from observational data, in the presence of unobserved confounders. The two-stage least square (TSLS) method and its variants with a standard instrumental variable (IV) are commonly used to eliminate confounding bias, including the bias caused by unobserved confounders, but they rely on the linearity assumption. Besides, the strict condition of unconfounded instruments posed on a standard IV is too strong to be practical. To address these challenging and practical problems of the standard IV method (linearity assumption and the strict condition), in this paper, we use a conditional IV (CIV) to relax the unconfounded instrument condition of standard IV and propose a non-linear CIV regression with Confounding Balancing Representation Learning, CBRL.CIV, for jointly eliminating the confounding bias from unobserved confounders and balancing the observed confounders, without the linearity assumption. We theoretically demonstrate the soundness of CBRL.CIV. Extensive experiments on synthetic and two real-world datasets show the competitive performance of CBRL.CIV against state-of-the-art IV-based estimators and superiority in dealing with the non-linear situation.

In this work, the human parsing task, namely decomposing a human image into semantic fashion/body regions, is formulated as an Active Template Regression (ATR) problem, where the normalized mask of each fashion/body item is expressed as the linear combination of the learned mask templates, and then morphed to a more precise mask with the active shape parameters, including position, scale and visibility of each semantic region. The mask template coefficients and the active shape parameters together can generate the human parsing results, and are thus called the structure outputs for human parsing. The deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) is utilized to build the end-to-end relation between the input human image and the structure outputs for human parsing. More specifically, the structure outputs are predicted by two separate networks. The first CNN network is with max-pooling, and designed to predict the template coefficients for each label mask, while the second CNN network is without max-pooling to preserve sensitivity to label mask position and accurately predict the active shape parameters. For a new image, the structure outputs of the two networks are fused to generate the probability of each label for each pixel, and super-pixel smoothing is finally used to refine the human parsing result. Comprehensive evaluations on a large dataset well demonstrate the significant superiority of the ATR framework over other state-of-the-arts for human parsing. In particular, the F1-score reaches 64.38% by our ATR framework, significantly higher than 44.76% based on the state-of-the-art algorithm.

In this work, we develop new optimization algorithms that use approximate second-order information combined with the gradient regularization technique to achieve fast global convergence rates for both convex and non-convex objectives. The key innovation of our analysis is a novel notion called Gradient-Normalized Smoothness, which characterizes the maximum radius of a ball around the current point that yields a good relative approximation of the gradient field. Our theory establishes a natural intrinsic connection between Hessian approximation and the linearization of the gradient. Importantly, Gradient-Normalized Smoothness does not depend on the specific problem class of the objective functions, while effectively translating local information about the gradient field and Hessian approximation into the global behavior of the method. This new concept equips approximate second-order algorithms with universal global convergence guarantees, recovering state-of-the-art rates for functions with H\"older-continuous Hessians and third derivatives, quasi-self-concordant functions, as well as smooth classes in first-order optimization. These rates are achieved automatically and extend to broader classes, such as generalized self-concordant functions. We demonstrate direct applications of our results for global linear rates in logistic regression and softmax problems with approximate Hessians, as well as in non-convex optimization using Fisher and Gauss-Newton approximations.

The assumption that response and predictor belong to the same statistical unit may be violated in practice. Unbiased estimation and recovery of true label ordering based on unlabeled data are challenging tasks and have attracted increasing attentions in the recent literature. In this paper, we present a relatively complete analysis of label permutation problem for the generalized linear model with multivariate responses. The theory is established under different scenarios, with knowledge of true parameters, with partial knowledge of underlying label permutation matrix and without any knowledge. Our results remove the stringent conditions required by the current literature and are further extended to the missing observation setting which has never been considered in the field of label permutation problem. On computational side, we propose two methods, "maximum likelihood estimation" algorithm and "two-step estimation" algorithm, to accommodate for different settings. When the proportion of permuted labels is moderate, both methods work effectively. Multiple numerical experiments are provided and corroborate our theoretical findings.

Mirror descent value iteration (MDVI), an abstraction of Kullback-Leibler (KL) and entropy-regularized reinforcement learning (RL), has served as the basis for recent high-performing practical RL algorithms. However, despite the use of function approximation in practice, the theoretical understanding of MDVI has been limited to tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs). We study MDVI with linear function approximation through its sample complexity required to identify an varepsilon-optimal policy with probability 1-delta under the settings of an infinite-horizon linear MDP, generative model, and G-optimal design. We demonstrate that least-squares regression weighted by the variance of an estimated optimal value function of the next state is crucial to achieving minimax optimality. Based on this observation, we present Variance-Weighted Least-Squares MDVI (VWLS-MDVI), the first theoretical algorithm that achieves nearly minimax optimal sample complexity for infinite-horizon linear MDPs. Furthermore, we propose a practical VWLS algorithm for value-based deep RL, Deep Variance Weighting (DVW). Our experiments demonstrate that DVW improves the performance of popular value-based deep RL algorithms on a set of MinAtar benchmarks.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

Multi-channel imaging data is a prevalent data format in scientific fields such as astronomy and biology. The structured information and the high dimensionality of these 3-D tensor data makes the analysis an intriguing but challenging topic for statisticians and practitioners. The low-rank scalar-on-tensor regression model, in particular, has received widespread attention and has been re-formulated as a tensor Gaussian Process (Tensor-GP) model with multi-linear kernel in Yu et al. (2018). In this paper, we extend the Tensor-GP model by integrating a dimensionality reduction technique, called tensor contraction, with a Tensor-GP for a scalar-on-tensor regression task with multi-channel imaging data. This is motivated by the solar flare forecasting problem with high dimensional multi-channel imaging data. We first estimate a latent, reduced-size tensor for each data tensor and then apply a multi-linear Tensor-GP on the latent tensor data for prediction. We introduce an anisotropic total-variation regularization when conducting the tensor contraction to obtain a sparse and smooth latent tensor. We then propose an alternating proximal gradient descent algorithm for estimation. We validate our approach via extensive simulation studies and applying it to the solar flare forecasting problem.

We present the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations --CAMELS-- project. CAMELS is a suite of 4,233 cosmological simulations of (25~h^{-1}{rm Mpc})^3 volume each: 2,184 state-of-the-art (magneto-)hydrodynamic simulations run with the AREPO and GIZMO codes, employing the same baryonic subgrid physics as the IllustrisTNG and SIMBA simulations, and 2,049 N-body simulations. The goal of the CAMELS project is to provide theory predictions for different observables as a function of cosmology and astrophysics, and it is the largest suite of cosmological (magneto-)hydrodynamic simulations designed to train machine learning algorithms. CAMELS contains thousands of different cosmological and astrophysical models by way of varying Omega_m, sigma_8, and four parameters controlling stellar and AGN feedback, following the evolution of more than 100 billion particles and fluid elements over a combined volume of (400~h^{-1}{rm Mpc})^3. We describe the simulations in detail and characterize the large range of conditions represented in terms of the matter power spectrum, cosmic star formation rate density, galaxy stellar mass function, halo baryon fractions, and several galaxy scaling relations. We show that the IllustrisTNG and SIMBA suites produce roughly similar distributions of galaxy properties over the full parameter space but significantly different halo baryon fractions and baryonic effects on the matter power spectrum. This emphasizes the need for marginalizing over baryonic effects to extract the maximum amount of information from cosmological surveys. We illustrate the unique potential of CAMELS using several machine learning applications, including non-linear interpolation, parameter estimation, symbolic regression, data generation with Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), dimensionality reduction, and anomaly detection.

Traditional direct estimation methods are not efficient for domains of a survey population with small sample sizes. To estimate the domain proportions, we combine the direct estimators and the regression-synthetic estimators based on domain-level auxiliary information. For the case of small true proportions, we introduce the design-based linear combination that is a robust alternative to the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) based on the Fay--Herriot model. We also consider an adaptive procedure optimizing a sample-size-dependent composite estimator, which depends on a single parameter for all domains. We imitate the Lithuanian Labor Force Survey, where we estimate the proportions of the unemployed and employed in municipalities. We show where the considered design-based compositions and estimators of their mean square errors are competitive for EBLUP and its accuracy estimation.

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

Review websites, such as TripAdvisor and Yelp, allow users to post online reviews for various businesses, products and services, and have been recently shown to have a significant influence on consumer shopping behaviour. An online review typically consists of free-form text and a star rating out of 5. The problem of predicting a user's star rating for a product, given the user's text review for that product, is called Review Rating Prediction and has lately become a popular, albeit hard, problem in machine learning. In this paper, we treat Review Rating Prediction as a multi-class classification problem, and build sixteen different prediction models by combining four feature extraction methods, (i) unigrams, (ii) bigrams, (iii) trigrams and (iv) Latent Semantic Indexing, with four machine learning algorithms, (i) logistic regression, (ii) Naive Bayes classification, (iii) perceptrons, and (iv) linear Support Vector Classification. We analyse the performance of each of these sixteen models to come up with the best model for predicting the ratings from reviews. We use the dataset provided by Yelp for training and testing the models.

How should text dataset sizes be compared across languages? Even for content-matched (parallel) corpora, UTF-8 encoded text can require a dramatically different number of bytes for different languages. In our work, we define the byte premium between two languages as the ratio of bytes used to encode content-matched text in those languages. We compute byte premiums for 1155 languages, and we use linear regressions to estimate byte premiums for other languages. We release a tool to obtain byte premiums for any two languages, enabling comparisons of dataset sizes across languages for more equitable multilingual model development and data practices.

Counterexample-guided repair aims at creating neural networks with mathematical safety guarantees, facilitating the application of neural networks in safety-critical domains. However, whether counterexample-guided repair is guaranteed to terminate remains an open question. We approach this question by showing that counterexample-guided repair can be viewed as a robust optimisation algorithm. While termination guarantees for neural network repair itself remain beyond our reach, we prove termination for more restrained machine learning models and disprove termination in a general setting. We empirically study the practical implications of our theoretical results, demonstrating the suitability of common verifiers and falsifiers for repair despite a disadvantageous theoretical result. Additionally, we use our theoretical insights to devise a novel algorithm for repairing linear regression models based on quadratic programming, surpassing existing approaches.

We present an approach called Q-probing to adapt a pre-trained language model to maximize a task-specific reward function. At a high level, Q-probing sits between heavier approaches such as finetuning and lighter approaches such as few shot prompting, but can also be combined with either. The idea is to learn a simple linear function on a model's embedding space that can be used to reweight candidate completions. We theoretically show that this sampling procedure is equivalent to a KL-constrained maximization of the Q-probe as the number of samples increases. To train the Q-probes we consider either reward modeling or a class of novel direct policy learning objectives based on importance weighted policy gradients. With this technique, we see gains in domains with ground-truth rewards (code generation) as well as implicit rewards defined by preference data, even outperforming finetuning in data-limited regimes. Moreover, a Q-probe can be trained on top of an API since it only assumes access to sampling and embeddings. Code: https://github.com/likenneth/q_probe .

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

The number of publicly available models is rapidly increasing, yet most remain undocumented. Users looking for suitable models for their tasks must first determine what each model does. Training machine learning models to infer missing documentation directly from model weights is challenging, as these weights often contain significant variation unrelated to model functionality (denoted nuisance). Here, we identify a key property of real-world models: most public models belong to a small set of Model Trees, where all models within a tree are fine-tuned from a common ancestor (e.g., a foundation model). Importantly, we find that within each tree there is less nuisance variation between models. Concretely, while learning across Model Trees requires complex architectures, even a linear classifier trained on a single model layer often works within trees. While effective, these linear classifiers are computationally expensive, especially when dealing with larger models that have many parameters. To address this, we introduce Probing Experts (ProbeX), a theoretically motivated and lightweight method. Notably, ProbeX is the first probing method specifically designed to learn from the weights of a single hidden model layer. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ProbeX by predicting the categories in a model's training dataset based only on its weights. Excitingly, ProbeX can map the weights of Stable Diffusion into a weight-language embedding space, enabling model search via text, i.e., zero-shot model classification.

We study the data selection problem, whose aim is to select a small representative subset of data that can be used to efficiently train a machine learning model. We present a new data selection approach based on k-means clustering and sensitivity sampling. Assuming access to an embedding representation of the data with respect to which the model loss is H\"older continuous, our approach provably allows selecting a set of ``typical'' k + 1/varepsilon^2 elements whose average loss corresponds to the average loss of the whole dataset, up to a multiplicative (1pmvarepsilon) factor and an additive varepsilon lambda Phi_k, where Phi_k represents the k-means cost for the input embeddings and lambda is the H\"older constant. We furthermore demonstrate the performance and scalability of our approach on fine-tuning foundation models and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods. We also show how it can be applied on linear regression, leading to a new sampling strategy that surprisingly matches the performances of leverage score sampling, while being conceptually simpler and more scalable.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can comply with harmful instructions, raising serious safety concerns despite their impressive capabilities. Recent work has leveraged probing-based approaches to study the separability of malicious and benign inputs in LLMs' internal representations, and researchers have proposed using such probing methods for safety detection. We systematically re-examine this paradigm. Motivated by poor out-of-distribution performance, we hypothesize that probes learn superficial patterns rather than semantic harmfulness. Through controlled experiments, we confirm this hypothesis and identify the specific patterns learned: instructional patterns and trigger words. Our investigation follows a systematic approach, progressing from demonstrating comparable performance of simple n-gram methods, to controlled experiments with semantically cleaned datasets, to detailed analysis of pattern dependencies. These results reveal a false sense of security around current probing-based approaches and highlight the need to redesign both models and evaluation protocols, for which we provide further discussions in the hope of suggesting responsible further research in this direction. We have open-sourced the project at https://github.com/WangCheng0116/Why-Probe-Fails.

Many political science theories relate to latent variables, but such quantities cannot be observed directly and must instead be estimated from data with inherent uncertainty. In regression models, when a variable is measured with error, its slope coefficient is known to be biased toward zero. We show how measurement error interacts with unique aspects of latent variable estimation, identification restrictions in particular, and demonstrate how common error adjustment strategies can worsen bias. We introduce a method for adjusting coefficients on latent predictors, which reduces bias and typically increases the magnitude of estimated coefficients, often dramatically. We illustrate these dynamics using several different estimation strategies for the latent predictors. Corrected estimates using our proposed method show stronger relationships -- sometimes up to 50% larger -- than those from naive regression. Our findings highlight the importance of considering measurement error in latent predictors and the inadequacy of many commonly used approaches for dealing with this issue.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated great potential as generalist assistants, showcasing powerful task understanding and problem-solving capabilities. To deploy LLMs as AI assistants, it is crucial that these models exhibit desirable behavioral traits, such as non-toxicity and resilience against jailbreak attempts. Current methods for detoxification or preventing jailbreaking usually involve Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) or Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), which requires finetuning billions of parameters through gradient descent with substantial computation cost. Furthermore, models modified through SFT and RLHF may deviate from the pretrained models, potentially leading to a degradation in foundational LLM capabilities. In this paper, we observe that surprisingly, directly editing a small subset of parameters can effectively modulate specific behaviors of LLMs, such as detoxification and resistance to jailbreaking. Specifically, for a behavior that we aim to avoid, we employ a linear classifier, which we term the behavior probe, to classify binary behavior labels within the hidden state space of the LLM. Using this probe, we introduce an algorithm to identify a critical subset of LLM parameters that significantly influence this targeted behavior. Then we directly edit these selected parameters by shifting them towards the behavior probe. Such a direct parameter editing method necessitates only inference-level computational resources. Experiments demonstrate that in the representative detoxification task, our approach achieves reductions of up to 90.0\% in toxicity on the RealToxicityPrompts dataset and 49.2\% on ToxiGen, while maintaining the LLM's general capabilities in areas such as common sense, question answering, and mathematics. Our code is available at https://github.com/lucywang720/model-surgery.

Prompt-based probing has been widely used in evaluating the abilities of pretrained language models (PLMs). Unfortunately, recent studies have discovered such an evaluation may be inaccurate, inconsistent and unreliable. Furthermore, the lack of understanding its inner workings, combined with its wide applicability, has the potential to lead to unforeseen risks for evaluating and applying PLMs in real-world applications. To discover, understand and quantify the risks, this paper investigates the prompt-based probing from a causal view, highlights three critical biases which could induce biased results and conclusions, and proposes to conduct debiasing via causal intervention. This paper provides valuable insights for the design of unbiased datasets, better probing frameworks and more reliable evaluations of pretrained language models. Furthermore, our conclusions also echo that we need to rethink the criteria for identifying better pretrained language models. We openly released the source code and data at https://github.com/c-box/causalEval.

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

Neural language models (LMs) can be used to evaluate the truth of factual statements in two ways: they can be either queried for statement probabilities, or probed for internal representations of truthfulness. Past work has found that these two procedures sometimes disagree, and that probes tend to be more accurate than LM outputs. This has led some researchers to conclude that LMs "lie" or otherwise encode non-cooperative communicative intents. Is this an accurate description of today's LMs, or can query-probe disagreement arise in other ways? We identify three different classes of disagreement, which we term confabulation, deception, and heterogeneity. In many cases, the superiority of probes is simply attributable to better calibration on uncertain answers rather than a greater fraction of correct, high-confidence answers. In some cases, queries and probes perform better on different subsets of inputs, and accuracy can further be improved by ensembling the two. Code is available at github.com/lingo-mit/lm-truthfulness.

Neural networks excel as function approximators, but their complexity often obscures the types of functions they learn, making it difficult to explain their behavior. To address this, the linearity score lambda(f) is introduced, a simple and interpretable diagnostic that quantifies how well a regression network's output can be mimicked by a linear model. Defined as the R^2 value between the network's predictions and those of a trained linear surrogate, lambda(f) measures linear decodability: the extent to which the network's behavior aligns with a structurally simple model. This framework is evaluated on both synthetic and real-world datasets, using dataset-specific networks and surrogates. High lambda(f) scores reliably indicate alignment with the network's outputs; however, they do not guarantee accuracy with respect to the ground truth. These results highlight the risk of using surrogate fidelity as a proxy for model understanding, especially in high-stakes regression tasks.

Given a matrix Ain R^{ntimes d} and a vector bin R^n, we consider the regression problem with ell_infty guarantees: finding a vector x'in R^d such that |x'-x^*|_infty leq epsilon{d}cdot |Ax^*-b|_2cdot |A^dagger| where x^*=argmin_{xin R^d}|Ax-b|_2. One popular approach for solving such ell_2 regression problem is via sketching: picking a structured random matrix Sin R^{mtimes n} with mll n and SA can be quickly computed, solve the ``sketched'' regression problem argmin_{xin R^d} |SAx-Sb|_2. In this paper, we show that in order to obtain such ell_infty guarantee for ell_2 regression, one has to use sketching matrices that are dense. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first user case in which dense sketching matrices are necessary. On the algorithmic side, we prove that there exists a distribution of dense sketching matrices with m=epsilon^{-2}dlog^3(n/delta) such that solving the sketched regression problem gives the ell_infty guarantee, with probability at least 1-delta. Moreover, the matrix SA can be computed in time O(ndlog n). Our row count is nearly-optimal up to logarithmic factors, and significantly improves the result in [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], in which a super-linear in d rows, m=Omega(epsilon^{-2}d^{1+gamma}) for gamma=Theta(frac{loglog n{log d}}) is required. We also develop a novel analytical framework for ell_infty guarantee regression that utilizes the Oblivious Coordinate-wise Embedding (OCE) property introduced in [Song and Yu, ICML'21]. Our analysis is arguably much simpler and more general than [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], and it extends to dense sketches for tensor product of vectors.

We introduce Self-Monitored Inference-Time INtervention (SMITIN), an approach for controlling an autoregressive generative music transformer using classifier probes. These simple logistic regression probes are trained on the output of each attention head in the transformer using a small dataset of audio examples both exhibiting and missing a specific musical trait (e.g., the presence/absence of drums, or real/synthetic music). We then steer the attention heads in the probe direction, ensuring the generative model output captures the desired musical trait. Additionally, we monitor the probe output to avoid adding an excessive amount of intervention into the autoregressive generation, which could lead to temporally incoherent music. We validate our results objectively and subjectively for both audio continuation and text-to-music applications, demonstrating the ability to add controls to large generative models for which retraining or even fine-tuning is impractical for most musicians. Audio samples of the proposed intervention approach are available on our demo page http://tinyurl.com/smitin .

Strongly lensed variable quasars can serve as precise cosmological probes, provided that time delays between the image fluxes can be accurately measured. A number of methods have been proposed to address this problem. In this paper, we explore in detail a new approach based on kernel regression estimates, which is able to estimate a single time delay given several datasets for the same quasar. We develop realistic artificial data sets in order to carry out controlled experiments to test of performance of this new approach. We also test our method on real data from strongly lensed quasar Q0957+561 and compare our estimates against existing results.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Large vision-language models (LVLMs), designed to interpret and respond to human instructions, occasionally generate hallucinated or harmful content due to inappropriate instructions. This study uses linear probing to shed light on the hidden knowledge at the output layer of LVLMs. We demonstrate that the logit distributions of the first tokens contain sufficient information to determine whether to respond to the instructions, including recognizing unanswerable visual questions, defending against multi-modal jailbreaking attack, and identifying deceptive questions. Such hidden knowledge is gradually lost in logits of subsequent tokens during response generation. Then, we illustrate a simple decoding strategy at the generation of the first token, effectively improving the generated content. In experiments, we find a few interesting insights: First, the CLIP model already contains a strong signal for solving these tasks, indicating potential bias in the existing datasets. Second, we observe performance improvement by utilizing the first logit distributions on three additional tasks, including indicting uncertainty in math solving, mitigating hallucination, and image classification. Last, with the same training data, simply finetuning LVLMs improve models' performance but is still inferior to linear probing on these tasks.

Tuning the regularization parameter in penalized regression models is an expensive task, requiring multiple models to be fit along a path of parameters. Strong screening rules drastically reduce computational costs by lowering the dimensionality of the input prior to fitting. We develop strong screening rules for group-based Sorted L-One Penalized Estimation (SLOPE) models: Group SLOPE and Sparse-group SLOPE. The developed rules are applicable to the wider family of group-based OWL models, including OSCAR. Our experiments on both synthetic and real data show that the screening rules significantly accelerate the fitting process. The screening rules make it accessible for group SLOPE and sparse-group SLOPE to be applied to high-dimensional datasets, particularly those encountered in genetics.

We consider the problem of linear estimation, and establish an extension of the Gauss-Markov theorem, in which the bias operator is allowed to be non-zero but bounded with respect to a matrix norm of Schatten type. We derive simple and explicit formulas for the optimal estimator in the cases of Nuclear and Spectral norms (with the Frobenius case recovering ridge regression). Additionally, we analytically derive the generalization error in multiple random matrix ensembles, and compare with Ridge regression. Finally, we conduct an extensive simulation study, in which we show that the cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors can outperform Ridge in several circumstances.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

Over the broad landscape of experimental design, regression has been a powerful tool to accurately predict the outcome metrics of a system or model given a set of parameters, but has been traditionally restricted to methods which are only applicable to a specific task. In this paper, we propose OmniPred, a framework for training language models as universal end-to-end regressors over (x,y) evaluation data from diverse real world experiments. Using data sourced from Google Vizier, one of the largest blackbox optimization databases in the world, our extensive experiments demonstrate that through only textual representations of mathematical parameters and values, language models are capable of very precise numerical regression, and if given the opportunity to train over multiple tasks, can significantly outperform traditional regression models.

Pulmonary Hypertension (PH) is a severe disease characterized by an elevated pulmonary artery pressure. The gold standard for PH diagnosis is measurement of mean Pulmonary Artery Pressure (mPAP) during an invasive Right Heart Catheterization. In this paper, we investigate noninvasive approach to PH detection utilizing Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computer Models and Machine Learning. We show using the ablation study, that physics-informed feature engineering based on models of blood circulation increases the performance of Gradient Boosting Decision Trees-based algorithms for classification of PH and regression of values of mPAP. We compare results of regression (with thresholding of estimated mPAP) and classification and demonstrate that metrics achieved in both experiments are comparable. The predicted mPAP values are more informative to the physicians than the probability of PH returned by classification models. They provide the intuitive explanation of the outcome of the machine learning model (clinicians are accustomed to the mPAP metric, contrary to the PH probability).

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a chronic lung disease affecting 35% of extremely low birth weight infants. Defined by oxygen dependence at 36 weeks postmenstrual age, it causes lifelong respiratory complications. However, preventive interventions carry severe risks, including neurodevelopmental impairment, ventilator-induced lung injury, and systemic complications. Therefore, early BPD prognosis and prediction of BPD outcome is crucial to avoid unnecessary toxicity in low risk infants. Admission radiographs of extremely preterm infants are routinely acquired within 24h of life and could serve as a non-invasive prognostic tool. In this work, we developed and investigated a deep learning approach using chest X-rays from 163 extremely low-birth-weight infants (leq32 weeks gestation, 401-999g) obtained within 24 hours of birth. We fine-tuned a ResNet-50 pretrained specifically on adult chest radiographs, employing progressive layer freezing with discriminative learning rates to prevent overfitting and evaluated a CutMix augmentation and linear probing. For moderate/severe BPD outcome prediction, our best performing model with progressive freezing, linear probing and CutMix achieved an AUROC of 0.78 pm 0.10, balanced accuracy of 0.69 pm 0.10, and an F1-score of 0.67 pm 0.11. In-domain pre-training significantly outperformed ImageNet initialization (p = 0.031) which confirms domain-specific pretraining to be important for BPD outcome prediction. Routine IRDS grades showed limited prognostic value (AUROC 0.57 pm 0.11), confirming the need of learned markers. Our approach demonstrates that domain-specific pretraining enables accurate BPD prediction from routine day-1 radiographs. Through progressive freezing and linear probing, the method remains computationally feasible for site-level implementation and future federated learning deployments.

Two different approaches exist to handle missing values for prediction: either imputation, prior to fitting any predictive algorithms, or dedicated methods able to natively incorporate missing values. While imputation is widely (and easily) use, it is unfortunately biased when low-capacity predictors (such as linear models) are applied afterward. However, in practice, naive imputation exhibits good predictive performance. In this paper, we study the impact of imputation in a high-dimensional linear model with MCAR missing data. We prove that zero imputation performs an implicit regularization closely related to the ridge method, often used in high-dimensional problems. Leveraging on this connection, we establish that the imputation bias is controlled by a ridge bias, which vanishes in high dimension. As a predictor, we argue in favor of the averaged SGD strategy, applied to zero-imputed data. We establish an upper bound on its generalization error, highlighting that imputation is benign in the d sqrt n regime. Experiments illustrate our findings.

This paper studies attack detection for discrete-time linear systems with stochastic process noise that produce both a vulnerable (i.e., attackable) linear measurement and a secured (i.e., unattackable) quadratic measurement. The motivating application of this model is a dynamic-game setting where the quadratic measurement is interpreted as a system-level utility or reward, and control inputs into the linear system are interpreted as control policies that, once applied, are known to all game participants and which steer the system towards a game-theoretic equilibrium (e.g., Nash equilibrium). To detect attacks on the linear channel, we develop a novel quadratic-utility-aware observer that leverages the secured quadratic output and enforces measurement consistency via a projection step. We establish three properties for this observer: feasibility of the true state, prox-regularity of the quadratic-constraint set, and a monotone error-reduction guarantee in the noise-free case. To detect adversarial manipulation, we compare linear and quadratic observer trajectories using a wild bootstrap maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) test that provides valid inference under temporal dependence. We validate our framework using numerical experiments of a pursuit-evasion game, where the quadratic observer preserves estimation accuracy under linear-sensor attacks, while the statistical test detects distributional divergence between the observers' trajectories.

Probing classifiers have emerged as one of the prominent methodologies for interpreting and analyzing deep neural network models of natural language processing. The basic idea is simple -- a classifier is trained to predict some linguistic property from a model's representations -- and has been used to examine a wide variety of models and properties. However, recent studies have demonstrated various methodological limitations of this approach. This article critically reviews the probing classifiers framework, highlighting their promises, shortcomings, and advances.