Daily Papers

Model fusion combines multiple Large Language Models (LLMs) with different strengths into a more powerful, integrated model through lightweight training methods. Existing works on model fusion focus primarily on supervised fine-tuning (SFT), leaving preference alignment (PA) --a critical phase for enhancing LLM performance--largely unexplored. The current few fusion methods on PA phase, like WRPO, simplify the process by utilizing only response outputs from source models while discarding their probability information. To address this limitation, we propose InfiFPO, a preference optimization method for implicit model fusion. InfiFPO replaces the reference model in Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) with a fused source model that synthesizes multi-source probabilities at the sequence level, circumventing complex vocabulary alignment challenges in previous works and meanwhile maintaining the probability information. By introducing probability clipping and max-margin fusion strategies, InfiFPO enables the pivot model to align with human preferences while effectively distilling knowledge from source models. Comprehensive experiments on 11 widely-used benchmarks demonstrate that InfiFPO consistently outperforms existing model fusion and preference optimization methods. When using Phi-4 as the pivot model, InfiFPO improve its average performance from 79.95 to 83.33 on 11 benchmarks, significantly improving its capabilities in mathematics, coding, and reasoning tasks.

While reinforcement learning has advanced the reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), these gains are largely confined to English, creating a significant performance disparity across languages. To address this, we introduce Pivot-Based Reinforcement Learning with Semantically Verifiable Rewards (PB-RLSVR), a novel framework that enhances multilingual reasoning by circumventing the need for human-annotated data in target languages. Our approach employs a high-performing English LLM as a "pivot" model to generate reference responses for reasoning tasks. A multilingual model is then rewarded based on the semantic equivalence of its responses to the English reference, effectively transferring the pivot model's reasoning capabilities across languages. We investigate several cross-lingual semantic reward functions, including those based on embeddings and machine translation. Extensive experiments on a suite of multilingual reasoning benchmarks show that our method significantly narrows the performance gap between English and other languages, substantially outperforming traditional PPO baselines. Specifically, our PB-RLSVR framework improves the average multilingual performance of Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct and Qwen3-32B by 16.41% and 10.17%, respectively, demonstrating a powerful and data-efficient approach to building truly multilingual reasoning agents.

We introduce InfiFusion, an efficient training pipeline designed to integrate multiple domain-specialized Large Language Models (LLMs) into a single pivot model, effectively harnessing the strengths of each source model. Traditional fusion methods either merge model parameters directly or rely on knowledge distillation with rigid assumptions, limiting their flexibility and efficiency. InfiFusion overcomes these limitations by enhancing Universal Logit Distillation (ULD) with Top-K selection and Logits Standardization. We propose two fusion strategies: Pairwise Fusion (InfiFusion_p), where each source model knowledge is distilled individually into the pivot model followed by merging and Unified Fusion (InfiFusion_u), where knowledge from all source models is distilled simultaneously into the pivot model. InfiFusion outperforms the state-of-the-art models, such as Qwen-2.5-14B-Instruct and Phi-4, across 11 widely applied benchmarks covering reasoning, coding, mathematics, and instruction-following tasks. Notably, InfiFusion achieves this superior performance while significantly reduces computational costs, completing full training with only 160 H800 GPU hours compared to the millions typically required for traditional LLM training.

Recently there has been a significant surge in multimodal learning in terms of both image-to-text and text-to-image generation. However, the success is typically limited to English, leaving other languages largely behind. Building a competitive counterpart in other languages is highly challenging due to the low-resource nature of non-English multimodal data (i.e., lack of large-scale, high-quality image-text data). In this work, we propose MPM, an effective training paradigm for training large multimodal models in low-resource languages. MPM demonstrates that Multilingual language models can Pivot zero-shot Multimodal learning across languages. Specifically, based on a strong multilingual large language model, multimodal models pretrained on English-only image-text data can well generalize to other languages in a zero-shot manner for both image-to-text and text-to-image generation, even surpassing models trained on image-text data in native languages. Taking Chinese as a practice of MPM, we build large multimodal models VisCPM in image-to-text and text-to-image generation, which achieve state-of-the-art (open-source) performance in Chinese. To facilitate future research, we open-source codes and model weights at https://github.com/OpenBMB/VisCPM.git.

Recent advancements in omnimodal learning have been achieved in understanding and generation across images, text, and speech, though mainly within proprietary models. Limited omnimodal datasets and the inherent challenges associated with real-time emotional speech generation have hindered open-source progress. To address these issues, we propose openomni, a two-stage training method combining omnimodal alignment and speech generation to develop a state-of-the-art omnimodal large language model. In the alignment phase, a pre-trained speech model is further trained on text-image tasks to generalize from vision to speech in a (near) zero-shot manner, outperforming models trained on tri-modal datasets. In the speech generation phase, a lightweight decoder facilitates real-time emotional speech through training on speech tasks and preference learning. Experiments demonstrate that openomni consistently improves across omnimodal, vision-language, and speech-language evaluations, enabling natural, emotion-rich dialogues and real-time emotional speech generation.

Most translation tasks among languages belong to the zero-resource translation problem where parallel corpora are unavailable. Multilingual neural machine translation (MNMT) enables one-pass translation using shared semantic space for all languages compared to the two-pass pivot translation but often underperforms the pivot-based method. In this paper, we propose a novel method, named as Unified Multilingual Multiple teacher-student Model for NMT (UM4). Our method unifies source-teacher, target-teacher, and pivot-teacher models to guide the student model for the zero-resource translation. The source teacher and target teacher force the student to learn the direct source to target translation by the distilled knowledge on both source and target sides. The monolingual corpus is further leveraged by the pivot-teacher model to enhance the student model. Experimental results demonstrate that our model of 72 directions significantly outperforms previous methods on the WMT benchmark.

Direct neural machine translation (direct NMT) is a type of NMT system that translates text between two non-English languages. Direct NMT systems often face limitations due to the scarcity of parallel data between non-English language pairs. Several approaches have been proposed to address this limitation, such as multilingual NMT and pivot NMT (translation between two languages via English). Task-level Mixture of expert models (Task-level MoE), an inference-efficient variation of Transformer-based models, has shown promising NMT performance for a large number of language pairs. In Task-level MoE, different language groups can use different routing strategies to optimize cross-lingual learning and inference speed. In this work, we examine Task-level MoE's applicability in direct NMT and propose a series of high-performing training and evaluation configurations, through which Task-level MoE-based direct NMT systems outperform bilingual and pivot-based models for a large number of low and high-resource direct pairs, and translation directions. Our Task-level MoE with 16 experts outperforms bilingual NMT, Pivot NMT models for 7 language pairs, while pivot-based models still performed better in 9 pairs and directions.

Massively multilingual machine translation models allow for the translation of a large number of languages with a single model, but have limited performance on low- and very-low-resource translation directions. Pivoting via high-resource languages remains a strong strategy for low-resource directions, and in this paper we revisit ways of pivoting through multiple languages. Previous work has used a simple averaging of probability distributions from multiple paths, but we find that this performs worse than using a single pivot, and exacerbates the hallucination problem because the same hallucinations can be probable across different paths. As an alternative, we propose MaxEns, a combination strategy that is biased towards the most confident predictions, hypothesising that confident predictions are less prone to be hallucinations. We evaluate different strategies on the FLORES benchmark for 20 low-resource language directions, demonstrating that MaxEns improves translation quality for low-resource languages while reducing hallucination in translations, compared to both direct translation and an averaging approach. On average, multi-pivot strategies still lag behind using English as a single pivot language, raising the question of how to identify the best pivoting strategy for a given translation direction.

Large language models (LLMs) excel in natural language processing but demand intensive computation. To mitigate this, various quantization methods have been explored, yet they compromise LLM performance. This paper unveils a previously overlooked type of outlier in LLMs. Such outliers are found to allocate most of the attention scores on initial tokens of input, termed as pivot tokens, which is crucial to the performance of quantized LLMs. Given that, we propose IntactKV to generate the KV cache of pivot tokens losslessly from the full-precision model. The approach is simple and easy to combine with existing quantization solutions. Besides, IntactKV can be calibrated as additional LLM parameters to boost the quantized LLMs further. Mathematical analysis also proves that IntactKV effectively reduces the upper bound of quantization error. Empirical results show that IntactKV brings consistent improvement and achieves lossless weight-only INT4 quantization on various downstream tasks, leading to the new state-of-the-art for LLM quantization.

Vision language models (VLMs) have shown impressive capabilities across a variety of tasks, from logical reasoning to visual understanding. This opens the door to richer interaction with the world, for example robotic control. However, VLMs produce only textual outputs, while robotic control and other spatial tasks require outputting continuous coordinates, actions, or trajectories. How can we enable VLMs to handle such settings without fine-tuning on task-specific data? In this paper, we propose a novel visual prompting approach for VLMs that we call Prompting with Iterative Visual Optimization (PIVOT), which casts tasks as iterative visual question answering. In each iteration, the image is annotated with a visual representation of proposals that the VLM can refer to (e.g., candidate robot actions, localizations, or trajectories). The VLM then selects the best ones for the task. These proposals are iteratively refined, allowing the VLM to eventually zero in on the best available answer. We investigate PIVOT on real-world robotic navigation, real-world manipulation from images, instruction following in simulation, and additional spatial inference tasks such as localization. We find, perhaps surprisingly, that our approach enables zero-shot control of robotic systems without any robot training data, navigation in a variety of environments, and other capabilities. Although current performance is far from perfect, our work highlights potentials and limitations of this new regime and shows a promising approach for Internet-Scale VLMs in robotic and spatial reasoning domains. Website: pivot-prompt.github.io and HuggingFace: https://huggingface.co/spaces/pivot-prompt/pivot-prompt-demo.

Embedding models play a pivot role in modern NLP applications such as IR and RAG. While the context limit of LLMs has been pushed beyond 1 million tokens, embedding models are still confined to a narrow context window not exceeding 8k tokens, refrained from application scenarios requiring long inputs such as legal contracts. This paper explores context window extension of existing embedding models, pushing the limit to 32k without requiring additional training. First, we examine the performance of current embedding models for long context retrieval on our newly constructed LongEmbed benchmark. LongEmbed comprises two synthetic tasks and four carefully chosen real-world tasks, featuring documents of varying length and dispersed target information. Benchmarking results underscore huge room for improvement in these models. Based on this, comprehensive experiments show that training-free context window extension strategies like position interpolation can effectively extend the context window of existing embedding models by several folds, regardless of their original context being 512 or beyond 4k. Furthermore, for models employing absolute position encoding (APE), we show the possibility of further fine-tuning to harvest notable performance gains while strictly preserving original behavior for short inputs. For models using rotary position embedding (RoPE), significant enhancements are observed when employing RoPE-specific methods, such as NTK and SelfExtend, indicating RoPE's superiority over APE for context window extension. To facilitate future research, we release E5-Base-4k and E5-RoPE-Base, along with the LongEmbed benchmark.

Nested Event Extraction (NEE) aims to extract complex event structures where an event contains other events as its arguments recursively. Nested events involve a kind of Pivot Elements (PEs) that simultaneously act as arguments of outer events and as triggers of inner events, and thus connect them into nested structures. This special characteristic of PEs brings challenges to existing NEE methods, as they cannot well cope with the dual identities of PEs. Therefore, this paper proposes a new model, called PerNee, which extracts nested events mainly based on recognizing PEs. Specifically, PerNee first recognizes the triggers of both inner and outer events and further recognizes the PEs via classifying the relation type between trigger pairs. In order to obtain better representations of triggers and arguments to further improve NEE performance, it incorporates the information of both event types and argument roles into PerNee through prompt learning. Since existing NEE datasets (e.g., Genia11) are limited to specific domains and contain a narrow range of event types with nested structures, we systematically categorize nested events in generic domain and construct a new NEE dataset, namely ACE2005-Nest. Experimental results demonstrate that PerNee consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance on ACE2005-Nest, Genia11 and Genia13.

Generative diffusion models can serve as a prior which ensures that solutions of image restoration systems adhere to the manifold of natural images. However, for restoring facial images, a personalized prior is necessary to accurately represent and reconstruct unique facial features of a given individual. In this paper, we propose a simple, yet effective, method for personalized restoration, called Dual-Pivot Tuning - a two-stage approach that personalize a blind restoration system while maintaining the integrity of the general prior and the distinct role of each component. Our key observation is that for optimal personalization, the generative model should be tuned around a fixed text pivot, while the guiding network should be tuned in a generic (non-personalized) manner, using the personalized generative model as a fixed ``pivot". This approach ensures that personalization does not interfere with the restoration process, resulting in a natural appearance with high fidelity to the person's identity and the attributes of the degraded image. We evaluated our approach both qualitatively and quantitatively through extensive experiments with images of widely recognized individuals, comparing it against relevant baselines. Surprisingly, we found that our personalized prior not only achieves higher fidelity to identity with respect to the person's identity, but also outperforms state-of-the-art generic priors in terms of general image quality. Project webpage: https://personalized-restoration.github.io

Instruction tuning has remarkably advanced large language models (LLMs) in understanding and responding to diverse human instructions. Despite the success in high-resource languages, its application in lower-resource ones faces challenges due to the imbalanced foundational abilities of LLMs across different languages, stemming from the uneven language distribution in their pre-training data. To tackle this issue, we propose pivot language guided generation (PLUG), an approach that utilizes a high-resource language, primarily English, as the pivot to enhance instruction tuning in lower-resource languages. It trains the model to first process instructions in the pivot language, and then produce responses in the target language. To evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark, X-AlpacaEval, of instructions in 4 languages (Chinese, Korean, Italian, and Spanish), each annotated by professional translators. Our approach demonstrates a significant improvement in the instruction-following abilities of LLMs by 29% on average, compared to directly responding in the target language alone. Further experiments validate the versatility of our approach by employing alternative pivot languages beyond English to assist languages where LLMs exhibit lower proficiency.

Vectorized high-definition map online construction has garnered considerable attention in the field of autonomous driving research. Most existing approaches model changeable map elements using a fixed number of points, or predict local maps in a two-stage autoregressive manner, which may miss essential details and lead to error accumulation. Towards precise map element learning, we propose a simple yet effective architecture named PivotNet, which adopts unified pivot-based map representations and is formulated as a direct set prediction paradigm. Concretely, we first propose a novel point-to-line mask module to encode both the subordinate and geometrical point-line priors in the network. Then, a well-designed pivot dynamic matching module is proposed to model the topology in dynamic point sequences by introducing the concept of sequence matching. Furthermore, to supervise the position and topology of the vectorized point predictions, we propose a dynamic vectorized sequence loss. Extensive experiments and ablations show that PivotNet is remarkably superior to other SOTAs by 5.9 mAP at least. The code will be available soon.

Diffusion models have proven to be highly effective in image and video generation; however, they still face composition challenges when generating images of varying sizes due to single-scale training data. Adapting large pre-trained diffusion models for higher resolution demands substantial computational and optimization resources, yet achieving a generation capability comparable to low-resolution models remains elusive. This paper proposes a novel self-cascade diffusion model that leverages the rich knowledge gained from a well-trained low-resolution model for rapid adaptation to higher-resolution image and video generation, employing either tuning-free or cheap upsampler tuning paradigms. Integrating a sequence of multi-scale upsampler modules, the self-cascade diffusion model can efficiently adapt to a higher resolution, preserving the original composition and generation capabilities. We further propose a pivot-guided noise re-schedule strategy to speed up the inference process and improve local structural details. Compared to full fine-tuning, our approach achieves a 5X training speed-up and requires only an additional 0.002M tuning parameters. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach can quickly adapt to higher resolution image and video synthesis by fine-tuning for just 10k steps, with virtually no additional inference time.

Finetuning language models with reinforcement learning (RL), e.g. from human feedback (HF), is a prominent method for alignment. But optimizing against a reward model can improve on reward while degrading performance in other areas, a phenomenon known as reward hacking, alignment tax, or language drift. First, we argue that commonly-used test metrics are insufficient and instead measure how different algorithms tradeoff between reward and drift. The standard method modified the reward with a Kullback-Lieber (KL) penalty between the online and initial model. We propose Elastic Reset, a new algorithm that achieves higher reward with less drift without explicitly modifying the training objective. We periodically reset the online model to an exponentially moving average (EMA) of itself, then reset the EMA model to the initial model. Through the use of an EMA, our model recovers quickly after resets and achieves higher reward with less drift in the same number of steps. We demonstrate that fine-tuning language models with Elastic Reset leads to state-of-the-art performance on a small scale pivot-translation benchmark, outperforms all baselines in a medium-scale RLHF-like IMDB mock sentiment task and leads to a more performant and more aligned technical QA chatbot with LLaMA-7B. Code available at github.com/mnoukhov/elastic-reset.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has become a pivot technique in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. In RLHF practice, preference data plays a crucial role in bridging human proclivity and LLMs. However, the scarcity of diverse, naturalistic datasets of human preferences on LLM outputs at scale poses a great challenge to RLHF as well as feedback learning research within the open-source community. Current preference datasets, either proprietary or limited in size and prompt variety, result in limited RLHF adoption in open-source models and hinder further exploration. In this study, we propose ULTRAFEEDBACK, a large-scale, high-quality, and diversified preference dataset designed to overcome these limitations and foster RLHF development. To create ULTRAFEEDBACK, we compile a diverse array of instructions and models from multiple sources to produce comparative data. We meticulously devise annotation instructions and employ GPT-4 to offer detailed feedback in both numerical and textual forms. ULTRAFEEDBACK establishes a reproducible and expandable preference data construction pipeline, serving as a solid foundation for future RLHF and feedback learning research. Utilizing ULTRAFEEDBACK, we train various models to demonstrate its effectiveness, including the reward model UltraRM, chat language model UltraLM-13B-PPO, and critique model UltraCM. Experimental results indicate that our models outperform existing open-source models, achieving top performance across multiple benchmarks. Our data and models are available at https://github.com/thunlp/UltraFeedback.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable ability in cross-lingual tasks. Understanding how LLMs acquire this ability is crucial for their interpretability. To quantify the cross-lingual ability of LLMs accurately, we propose a Word-Level Cross-Lingual Translation Task. To find how LLMs learn cross-lingual ability, we trace the outputs of LLMs' intermediate layers in the word translation task. We identify and distinguish two distinct behaviors in the forward pass of LLMs: co-occurrence behavior and semantic pivot behavior. We attribute LLMs' two distinct behaviors to the co-occurrence frequency of words and find the semantic pivot from the pre-training dataset. Finally, to apply our findings to improve the cross-lingual ability of LLMs, we reconstruct a semantic pivot-aware pre-training dataset using documents with a high proportion of semantic pivots. Our experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach in enhancing cross-lingual ability. Our research contributes insights into the interpretability of LLMs and offers a method for improving LLMs' cross-lingual ability.

The reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable advancement and exceptional performance across diverse domains. However, leveraging these reasoning capabilities to enhance LLM safety against adversarial attacks and jailbreak queries remains largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose Reasoning-to-Defend (R2D), a novel training paradigm that integrates safety reflections of queries and responses into LLMs' generation process, unlocking a safety-aware reasoning mechanism. This approach enables self-evaluation at each reasoning step to create safety pivot tokens as indicators of the response's safety status. Furthermore, in order to improve the learning efficiency of pivot token prediction, we propose Contrastive Pivot Optimization(CPO), which enhances the model's ability to perceive the safety status of dialogues. Through this mechanism, LLMs dynamically adjust their response strategies during reasoning, significantly enhancing their defense capabilities against jailbreak attacks. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that R2D effectively mitigates various attacks and improves overall safety, highlighting the substantial potential of safety-aware reasoning in strengthening LLMs' robustness against jailbreaks.

From rearranging objects on a table to putting groceries into shelves, robots must plan precise action points to perform tasks accurately and reliably. In spite of the recent adoption of vision language models (VLMs) to control robot behavior, VLMs struggle to precisely articulate robot actions using language. We introduce an automatic synthetic data generation pipeline that instruction-tunes VLMs to robotic domains and needs. Using the pipeline, we train RoboPoint, a VLM that predicts image keypoint affordances given language instructions. Compared to alternative approaches, our method requires no real-world data collection or human demonstration, making it much more scalable to diverse environments and viewpoints. In addition, RoboPoint is a general model that enables several downstream applications such as robot navigation, manipulation, and augmented reality (AR) assistance. Our experiments demonstrate that RoboPoint outperforms state-of-the-art VLMs (GPT-4o) and visual prompting techniques (PIVOT) by 21.8% in the accuracy of predicting spatial affordance and by 30.5% in the success rate of downstream tasks. Project website: https://robo-point.github.io.

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful generative paradigm for visual generation. The current de-facto standard of next token prediction commonly operates over a single-scale sequence of dense image tokens, and is incapable of utilizing global context especially for early tokens prediction. In this paper, we introduce a new autoregressive design to model a hierarchy from a few low-resolution image tokens to the typical dense image tokens, and delve into a thorough hierarchical dependency across multi-scale image tokens. Technically, we present a Hierarchical Masked Autoregressive models (Hi-MAR) that pivot on low-resolution image tokens to trigger hierarchical autoregressive modeling in a multi-phase manner. Hi-MAR learns to predict a few image tokens in low resolution, functioning as intermediary pivots to reflect global structure, in the first phase. Such pivots act as the additional guidance to strengthen the next autoregressive modeling phase by shaping global structural awareness of typical dense image tokens. A new Diffusion Transformer head is further devised to amplify the global context among all tokens for mask token prediction. Extensive evaluations on both class-conditional and text-to-image generation tasks demonstrate that Hi-MAR outperforms typical AR baselines, while requiring fewer computational costs. Code is available at https://github.com/HiDream-ai/himar.

Vision tokens in multimodal large language models often dominate huge computational overhead due to their excessive length compared to linguistic modality. Abundant recent methods aim to solve this problem with token pruning, which first defines an importance criterion for tokens and then prunes the unimportant vision tokens during inference. However, in this paper, we show that the importance is not an ideal indicator to decide whether a token should be pruned. Surprisingly, it usually results in inferior performance than random token pruning and leading to incompatibility to efficient attention computation operators.Instead, we propose DART (Duplication-Aware Reduction of Tokens), which prunes tokens based on its duplication with other tokens, leading to significant and training-free acceleration. Concretely, DART selects a small subset of pivot tokens and then retains the tokens with low duplication to the pivots, ensuring minimal information loss during token pruning. Experiments demonstrate that DART can prune 88.9% vision tokens while maintaining comparable performance, leading to a 1.99times and 2.99times speed-up in total time and prefilling stage, respectively, with good compatibility to efficient attention operators. Our codes are available at https://github.com/ZichenWen1/DART.

Recent advances in Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), particularly those leveraging Chain-of-Thought reasoning (CoT), have opened brand new possibility for Machine Translation (MT). This position paper argues that LRMs substantially transformed traditional neural MT as well as LLMs-based MT paradigms by reframing translation as a dynamic reasoning task that requires contextual, cultural, and linguistic understanding and reasoning. We identify three foundational shifts: 1) contextual coherence, where LRMs resolve ambiguities and preserve discourse structure through explicit reasoning over cross-sentence and complex context or even lack of context; 2) cultural intentionality, enabling models to adapt outputs by inferring speaker intent, audience expectations, and socio-linguistic norms; 3) self-reflection, LRMs can perform self-reflection during the inference time to correct the potential errors in translation especially extremely noisy cases, showing better robustness compared to simply mapping X->Y translation. We explore various scenarios in translation including stylized translation, document-level translation and multimodal translation by showcasing empirical examples that demonstrate the superiority of LRMs in translation. We also identify several interesting phenomenons for LRMs for MT including auto-pivot translation as well as the critical challenges such as over-localisation in translation and inference efficiency. In conclusion, we think that LRMs redefine translation systems not merely as text converters but as multilingual cognitive agents capable of reasoning about meaning beyond the text. This paradigm shift reminds us to think of problems in translation beyond traditional translation scenarios in a much broader context with LRMs - what we can achieve on top of it.

Vision-language models (VLMs) show remarkable performance in multimodal tasks. However, excessively long multimodal inputs lead to oversized Key-Value (KV) caches, resulting in significant memory consumption and I/O bottlenecks. Previous KV quantization methods for Large Language Models (LLMs) may alleviate these issues but overlook the attention saliency differences of multimodal tokens, resulting in suboptimal performance. In this paper, we investigate the attention-aware token saliency patterns in VLM and propose AKVQ-VL. AKVQ-VL leverages the proposed Text-Salient Attention (TSA) and Pivot-Token-Salient Attention (PSA) patterns to adaptively allocate bit budgets. Moreover, achieving extremely low-bit quantization requires effectively addressing outliers in KV tensors. AKVQ-VL utilizes the Walsh-Hadamard transform (WHT) to construct outlier-free KV caches, thereby reducing quantization difficulty. Evaluations of 2-bit quantization on 12 long-context and multimodal tasks demonstrate that AKVQ-VL maintains or even improves accuracy, outperforming LLM-oriented methods. AKVQ-VL can reduce peak memory usage by 2.13x, support up to 3.25x larger batch sizes and 2.46x throughput.

Massively Multilingual Transformer based Language Models have been observed to be surprisingly effective on zero-shot transfer across languages, though the performance varies from language to language depending on the pivot language(s) used for fine-tuning. In this work, we build upon some of the existing techniques for predicting the zero-shot performance on a task, by modeling it as a multi-task learning problem. We jointly train predictive models for different tasks which helps us build more accurate predictors for tasks where we have test data in very few languages to measure the actual performance of the model. Our approach also lends us the ability to perform a much more robust feature selection and identify a common set of features that influence zero-shot performance across a variety of tasks.

Audio-driven 3D facial animation aims to map input audio to realistic facial motion. Despite significant progress, limitations arise from inconsistent 3D annotations, restricting previous models to training on specific annotations and thereby constraining the training scale. In this work, we present UniTalker, a unified model featuring a multi-head architecture designed to effectively leverage datasets with varied annotations. To enhance training stability and ensure consistency among multi-head outputs, we employ three training strategies, namely, PCA, model warm-up, and pivot identity embedding. To expand the training scale and diversity, we assemble A2F-Bench, comprising five publicly available datasets and three newly curated datasets. These datasets contain a wide range of audio domains, covering multilingual speech voices and songs, thereby scaling the training data from commonly employed datasets, typically less than 1 hour, to 18.5 hours. With a single trained UniTalker model, we achieve substantial lip vertex error reductions of 9.2% for BIWI dataset and 13.7% for Vocaset. Additionally, the pre-trained UniTalker exhibits promise as the foundation model for audio-driven facial animation tasks. Fine-tuning the pre-trained UniTalker on seen datasets further enhances performance on each dataset, with an average error reduction of 6.3% on A2F-Bench. Moreover, fine-tuning UniTalker on an unseen dataset with only half the data surpasses prior state-of-the-art models trained on the full dataset. The code and dataset are available at the project page https://github.com/X-niper/UniTalker.

With the proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) in diverse domains, there is a particular need for unified evaluation standards in clinical medical scenarios, where models need to be examined very thoroughly. We present CliMedBench, a comprehensive benchmark with 14 expert-guided core clinical scenarios specifically designed to assess the medical ability of LLMs across 7 pivot dimensions. It comprises 33,735 questions derived from real-world medical reports of top-tier tertiary hospitals and authentic examination exercises. The reliability of this benchmark has been confirmed in several ways. Subsequent experiments with existing LLMs have led to the following findings: (i) Chinese medical LLMs underperform on this benchmark, especially where medical reasoning and factual consistency are vital, underscoring the need for advances in clinical knowledge and diagnostic accuracy. (ii) Several general-domain LLMs demonstrate substantial potential in medical clinics, while the limited input capacity of many medical LLMs hinders their practical use. These findings reveal both the strengths and limitations of LLMs in clinical scenarios and offer critical insights for medical research.

Learning a discriminative model to distinguish a target from its surrounding distractors is essential to generic visual object tracking. Dynamic target representation adaptation against distractors is challenging due to the limited discriminative capabilities of prevailing trackers. We present a new visual Prompting mechanism for generic Visual Object Tracking (PiVOT) to address this issue. PiVOT proposes a prompt generation network with the pre-trained foundation model CLIP to automatically generate and refine visual prompts, enabling the transfer of foundation model knowledge for tracking. While CLIP offers broad category-level knowledge, the tracker, trained on instance-specific data, excels at recognizing unique object instances. Thus, PiVOT first compiles a visual prompt highlighting potential target locations. To transfer the knowledge of CLIP to the tracker, PiVOT leverages CLIP to refine the visual prompt based on the similarities between candidate objects and the reference templates across potential targets. Once the visual prompt is refined, it can better highlight potential target locations, thereby reducing irrelevant prompt information. With the proposed prompting mechanism, the tracker can generate improved instance-aware feature maps through the guidance of the visual prompt, thus effectively reducing distractors. The proposed method does not involve CLIP during training, thereby keeping the same training complexity and preserving the generalization capability of the pretrained foundation model. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks indicate that PiVOT, using the proposed prompting method can suppress distracting objects and enhance the tracker.

Machines that can represent and describe environmental soundscapes have practical potential, e.g., for audio tagging and captioning systems. Prevailing learning paradigms have been relying on parallel audio-text data, which is, however, scarcely available on the web. We propose VIP-ANT that induces Audio-Text alignment without using any parallel audio-text data. Our key idea is to share the image modality between bi-modal image-text representations and bi-modal image-audio representations; the image modality functions as a pivot and connects audio and text in a tri-modal embedding space implicitly. In a difficult zero-shot setting with no paired audio-text data, our model demonstrates state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on the ESC50 and US8K audio classification tasks, and even surpasses the supervised state of the art for Clotho caption retrieval (with audio queries) by 2.2\% R@1. We further investigate cases of minimal audio-text supervision, finding that, e.g., just a few hundred supervised audio-text pairs increase the zero-shot audio classification accuracy by 8\% on US8K. However, to match human parity on some zero-shot tasks, our empirical scaling experiments suggest that we would need about 2^{21} approx 2M supervised audio-caption pairs. Our work opens up new avenues for learning audio-text connections with little to no parallel audio-text data.

We ask whether multilingual language models trained on unbalanced, English-dominated corpora use English as an internal pivot language -- a question of key importance for understanding how language models function and the origins of linguistic bias. Focusing on the Llama-2 family of transformer models, our study uses carefully constructed non-English prompts with a unique correct single-token continuation. From layer to layer, transformers gradually map an input embedding of the final prompt token to an output embedding from which next-token probabilities are computed. Tracking intermediate embeddings through their high-dimensional space reveals three distinct phases, whereby intermediate embeddings (1) start far away from output token embeddings; (2) already allow for decoding a semantically correct next token in the middle layers, but give higher probability to its version in English than in the input language; (3) finally move into an input-language-specific region of the embedding space. We cast these results into a conceptual model where the three phases operate in "input space", "concept space", and "output space", respectively. Crucially, our evidence suggests that the abstract "concept space" lies closer to English than to other languages, which may have important consequences regarding the biases held by multilingual language models.

In this paper, we introduce SCALE, a collaborative framework that connects compact Specialized Translation Models (STMs) and general-purpose Large Language Models (LLMs) as one unified translation engine. By introducing translation from STM into the triplet in-context demonstrations, SCALE unlocks refinement and pivoting ability of LLM, thus mitigating language bias of LLM and parallel data bias of STM, enhancing LLM speciality without sacrificing generality, and facilitating continual learning without expensive LLM fine-tuning. Our comprehensive experiments show that SCALE significantly outperforms both few-shot LLMs (GPT-4) and specialized models (NLLB) in challenging low-resource settings. Moreover, in Xhosa to English translation, SCALE experiences consistent improvement by a 4 BLEURT score without tuning LLM and surpasses few-shot GPT-4 by 2.5 COMET score and 3.8 BLEURT score when equipped with a compact model consisting of merely 600M parameters. SCALE could also effectively exploit the existing language bias of LLMs by using an English-centric STM as a pivot for translation between any language pairs, outperforming few-shot GPT-4 by an average of 6 COMET points across eight translation directions. Furthermore we provide an in-depth analysis of SCALE's robustness, translation characteristics, and latency costs, providing solid foundation for future studies exploring the potential synergy between LLMs and more specialized, task-specific models.

Recent advancements in large foundation models have remarkably enhanced our understanding of sensory information in open-world environments. In leveraging the power of foundation models, it is crucial for AI research to pivot away from excessive reductionism and toward an emphasis on systems that function as cohesive wholes. Specifically, we emphasize developing Agent AI -- an embodied system that integrates large foundation models into agent actions. The emerging field of Agent AI spans a wide range of existing embodied and agent-based multimodal interactions, including robotics, gaming, and healthcare systems, etc. In this paper, we propose a novel large action model to achieve embodied intelligent behavior, the Agent Foundation Model. On top of this idea, we discuss how agent AI exhibits remarkable capabilities across a variety of domains and tasks, challenging our understanding of learning and cognition. Furthermore, we discuss the potential of Agent AI from an interdisciplinary perspective, underscoring AI cognition and consciousness within scientific discourse. We believe that those discussions serve as a basis for future research directions and encourage broader societal engagement.

Scaling inference through long chains-of-thought (CoTs) has unlocked impressive reasoning capabilities in large language models (LLMs), yet the reasoning process remains almost exclusively English-centric. We construct translated versions of two popular English reasoning datasets, fine-tune Qwen 2.5 (7B) and Qwen 3 (8B) models, and present a systematic study of long CoT generation across French, Japanese, Latvian, and Swahili. Our experiments reveal three key findings. First, the efficacy of using English as a pivot language varies by language: it provides no benefit for French, improves performance when used as the reasoning language for Japanese and Latvian, and proves insufficient for Swahili where both task comprehension and reasoning remain poor. Second, extensive multilingual pretraining in Qwen 3 narrows but does not eliminate the cross-lingual performance gap. A lightweight fine-tune using only 1k traces still improves performance by over 30\% in Swahili. Third, data quality versus scale trade-offs are language dependent: small, carefully curated datasets suffice for English and French, whereas larger but noisier corpora prove more effective for Swahili and Latvian. Together, these results clarify when and why long CoTs transfer across languages and provide translated datasets to foster equitable multilingual reasoning research.

In this paper, we leverage low-level compiler intermediate representations (IR) to improve code translation. Traditional transpilers rely on syntactic information and handcrafted rules, which limits their applicability and produces unnatural-looking code. Applying neural machine translation (NMT) approaches to code has successfully broadened the set of programs on which one can get a natural-looking translation. However, they treat the code as sequences of text tokens, and still do not differentiate well enough between similar pieces of code which have different semantics in different languages. The consequence is low quality translation, reducing the practicality of NMT, and stressing the need for an approach significantly increasing its accuracy. Here we propose to augment code translation with IRs, specifically LLVM IR, with results on the C++, Java, Rust, and Go languages. Our method improves upon the state of the art for unsupervised code translation, increasing the number of correct translations by 11% on average, and up to 79% for the Java -> Rust pair with greedy decoding. We extend previous test sets for code translation, by adding hundreds of Go and Rust functions. Additionally, we train models with high performance on the problem of IR decompilation, generating programming source code from IR, and study using IRs as intermediary pivot for translation.

Software engineers working with the same programming language (PL) may speak different natural languages (NLs) and vice versa, erecting huge barriers to communication and working efficiency. Recent studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of generative pre-training in computer programs, yet they are always English-centric. In this work, we step towards bridging the gap between multilingual NLs and multilingual PLs for large language models (LLMs). We release ERNIE-Code, a unified pre-trained language model for 116 NLs and 6 PLs. We employ two methods for universal cross-lingual pre-training: span-corruption language modeling that learns patterns from monolingual NL or PL; and pivot-based translation language modeling that relies on parallel data of many NLs and PLs. Extensive results show that ERNIE-Code outperforms previous multilingual LLMs for PL or NL across a wide range of end tasks of code intelligence, including multilingual code-to-text, text-to-code, code-to-code, and text-to-text generation. We further show its advantage of zero-shot prompting on multilingual code summarization and text-to-text translation. We release our code and pre-trained checkpoints.

Massively multilingual models for neural machine translation (NMT) are theoretically attractive, but often underperform bilingual models and deliver poor zero-shot translations. In this paper, we explore ways to improve them. We argue that multilingual NMT requires stronger modeling capacity to support language pairs with varying typological characteristics, and overcome this bottleneck via language-specific components and deepening NMT architectures. We identify the off-target translation issue (i.e. translating into a wrong target language) as the major source of the inferior zero-shot performance, and propose random online backtranslation to enforce the translation of unseen training language pairs. Experiments on OPUS-100 (a novel multilingual dataset with 100 languages) show that our approach substantially narrows the performance gap with bilingual models in both one-to-many and many-to-many settings, and improves zero-shot performance by ~10 BLEU, approaching conventional pivot-based methods.

We present Samanantar, the largest publicly available parallel corpora collection for Indic languages. The collection contains a total of 49.7 million sentence pairs between English and 11 Indic languages (from two language families). Specifically, we compile 12.4 million sentence pairs from existing, publicly-available parallel corpora, and additionally mine 37.4 million sentence pairs from the web, resulting in a 4x increase. We mine the parallel sentences from the web by combining many corpora, tools, and methods: (a) web-crawled monolingual corpora, (b) document OCR for extracting sentences from scanned documents, (c) multilingual representation models for aligning sentences, and (d) approximate nearest neighbor search for searching in a large collection of sentences. Human evaluation of samples from the newly mined corpora validate the high quality of the parallel sentences across 11 languages. Further, we extract 83.4 million sentence pairs between all 55 Indic language pairs from the English-centric parallel corpus using English as the pivot language. We trained multilingual NMT models spanning all these languages on Samanantar, which outperform existing models and baselines on publicly available benchmarks, such as FLORES, establishing the utility of Samanantar. Our data and models are available publicly at https://indicnlp.ai4bharat.org/samanantar/ and we hope they will help advance research in NMT and multilingual NLP for Indic languages.

Non-prehensile manipulation is challenging due to complex contact interactions between objects, the environment, and robots. Model-based approaches can efficiently generate complex trajectories of robots and objects under contact constraints. However, they tend to be sensitive to model inaccuracies and require access to privileged information (e.g., object mass, size, pose), making them less suitable for novel objects. In contrast, learning-based approaches are typically more robust to modeling errors but require large amounts of data. In this paper, we bridge these two approaches to propose a framework for learning closed-loop pivoting manipulation. By leveraging computationally efficient Contact-Implicit Trajectory Optimization (CITO), we design demonstration-guided deep Reinforcement Learning (RL), leading to sample-efficient learning. We also present a sim-to-real transfer approach using a privileged training strategy, enabling the robot to perform pivoting manipulation using only proprioception, vision, and force sensing without access to privileged information. Our method is evaluated on several pivoting tasks, demonstrating that it can successfully perform sim-to-real transfer. The overview of our method and the hardware experiments are shown at https://youtu.be/akjGDgfwLbM?si=QVw6ExoPy2VsU2g6

Linear structural equation models are multivariate statistical models encoded by mixed graphs. In particular, the set of covariance matrices for distributions belonging to a linear structural equation model for a fixed mixed graph G=(V, D,B) is parameterized by a rational function with parameters for each vertex and edge in G. This rational parametrization naturally allows for the study of these models from an algebraic and combinatorial point of view. Indeed, this point of view has led to a collection of results in the literature, mainly focusing on questions related to identifiability and determining relationships between covariances (i.e., finding polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal). So far, a large proportion of these results has focused on the case when D, the directed part of the mixed graph G, is acyclic. This is due to the fact that in the acyclic case, the parametrization becomes polynomial and there is a description of the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of a finite sum. We move beyond the acyclic case and give a closed form expression for the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of the one-connections in a graph obtained from D through some small operations. This closed form expression then allows us to show that if G is simple, then the parametrization map is generically finite-to-one. Finally, having a closed form expression for the covariance matrices allows for the development of an algorithm for systematically exploring possible polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal.

The intricate dynamics of stock markets have led to extensive research on models that are able to effectively explain their inherent complexities. This study leverages the econometrics literature to explore the dynamic factor model as an interpretable model with sufficient predictive capabilities for capturing essential market phenomena. Although the model has been extensively applied for predictive purposes, this study focuses on analyzing the extracted loadings and common factors as an alternative framework for understanding stock price dynamics. The results reveal novel insights into traditional market theories when applied to the Philippine Stock Exchange using the Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation, with subsequent validation against the capital asset pricing model. Notably, a one-factor model extracts a common factor representing systematic or market dynamics similar to the composite index, whereas a two-factor model extracts common factors representing market trends and volatility. Furthermore, an application of the model for nowcasting the growth rates of the Philippine gross domestic product highlights the potential of the extracted common factors as viable real-time market indicators, yielding over a 34% decrease in the out-of-sample prediction error. Overall, the results underscore the value of dynamic factor analysis in gaining a deeper understanding of market price movement dynamics.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has become a dominant architecture for scaling Large Language Models (LLMs) efficiently by decoupling total parameters from computational cost. However, this decoupling creates a critical challenge: predicting the model capacity of a given MoE configurations (e.g., expert activation ratio and granularity) remains an unresolved problem. To address this gap, we introduce Efficiency Leverage (EL), a metric quantifying the computational advantage of an MoE model over a dense equivalent. We conduct a large-scale empirical study, training over 300 models up to 28B parameters, to systematically investigate the relationship between MoE architectural configurations and EL. Our findings reveal that EL is primarily driven by the expert activation ratio and the total compute budget, both following predictable power laws, while expert granularity acts as a non-linear modulator with a clear optimal range. We integrate these discoveries into a unified scaling law that accurately predicts the EL of an MoE architecture based on its configuration. To validate our derived scaling laws, we designed and trained Ling-mini-beta, a pilot model for Ling-2.0 series with only 0.85B active parameters, alongside a 6.1B dense model for comparison. When trained on an identical 1T high-quality token dataset, Ling-mini-beta matched the performance of the 6.1B dense model while consuming over 7x fewer computational resources, thereby confirming the accuracy of our scaling laws. This work provides a principled and empirically-grounded foundation for the scaling of efficient MoE models.

Reward models are critical for aligning models to follow instructions, and are typically trained following one of two popular paradigms: Bradley-Terry style or Regression style. However, there is a lack of evidence that either approach is better than the other, when adequately matched for data. This is primarily because these approaches require data collected in different (but incompatible) formats, meaning that adequately matched data is not available in existing public datasets. To tackle this problem, we release preference annotations (designed for Bradley-Terry training) to complement existing ratings (designed for Regression style training) in the HelpSteer2 dataset. To improve data interpretability, preference annotations are accompanied with human-written justifications. Using this data, we conduct the first head-to-head comparison of Bradley-Terry and Regression models when adequately matched for data. Based on insights derived from such a comparison, we propose a novel approach to combine Bradley-Terry and Regression reward modeling. A Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct model tuned with this approach scores 94.1 on RewardBench, emerging top of more than 140 reward models as of 1 Oct 2024. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of this reward model at aligning models to follow instructions in RLHF. We open-source this dataset (CC-BY-4.0 license) at https://huggingface.co/datasets/nvidia/HelpSteer2 and openly release the trained Reward Model at https://huggingface.co/nvidia/Llama-3.1-Nemotron-70B-Reward

This study presents an analytical approach to sector rotation, leveraging both factor models and fundamental metrics. We initiate with a systematic classification of sectors, followed by an empirical investigation into their returns. Through factor analysis, the paper underscores the significance of momentum and short-term reversion in dictating sectoral shifts. A subsequent in-depth fundamental analysis evaluates metrics such as PE, PB, EV-to-EBITDA, Dividend Yield, among others. Our primary contribution lies in developing a predictive framework based on these fundamental indicators. The constructed models, post rigorous training, exhibit noteworthy predictive capabilities. The findings furnish a nuanced understanding of sector rotation strategies, with implications for asset management and portfolio construction in the financial domain.

A common approach for aligning language models to human preferences is to first learn a reward model from preference data, and then use this reward model to update the language model. We study two closely related problems that arise in this approach. First, any monotone transformation of the reward model preserves preference ranking; is there a choice that is ``better'' than others? Second, we often wish to align language models to multiple properties: how should we combine multiple reward models? Using a probabilistic interpretation of the alignment procedure, we identify a natural choice for transformation for (the common case of) rewards learned from Bradley-Terry preference models. This derived transformation has two important properties. First, it emphasizes improving poorly-performing outputs, rather than outputs that already score well. This mitigates both underfitting (where some prompts are not improved) and reward hacking (where the model learns to exploit misspecification of the reward model). Second, it enables principled aggregation of rewards by linking summation to logical conjunction: the sum of transformed rewards corresponds to the probability that the output is ``good'' in all measured properties, in a sense we make precise. Experiments aligning language models to be both helpful and harmless using RLHF show substantial improvements over the baseline (non-transformed) approach.

We study the ranking of individuals, teams, or objects, based on pairwise comparisons between them, using the Bradley-Terry model. Estimates of rankings within this model are commonly made using a simple iterative algorithm first introduced by Zermelo almost a century ago. Here we describe an alternative and similarly simple iteration that provably returns identical results but does so much faster -- over a hundred times faster in some cases. We demonstrate this algorithm with applications to a range of example data sets and derive a number of results regarding its convergence.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

This paper presents a multi-label topic model for financial texts like ad-hoc announcements, 8-K filings, finance related news or annual reports. I train the model on a new financial multi-label database consisting of 3,044 German ad-hoc announcements that are labeled manually using 20 predefined, economically motivated topics. The best model achieves a macro F1 score of more than 85%. Translating the data results in an English version of the model with similar performance. As application of the model, I investigate differences in stock market reactions across topics. I find evidence for strong positive or negative market reactions for some topics, like announcements of new Large Scale Projects or Bankruptcy Filings, while I do not observe significant price effects for some other topics. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies, the multi-label structure of the model allows to analyze the effects of co-occurring topics on stock market reactions. For many cases, the reaction to a specific topic depends heavily on the co-occurrence with other topics. For example, if allocated capital from a Seasoned Equity Offering (SEO) is used for restructuring a company in the course of a Bankruptcy Proceeding, the market reacts positively on average. However, if that capital is used for covering unexpected, additional costs from the development of new drugs, the SEO implies negative reactions on average.

Missing values, irregularly collected samples, and multi-resolution signals commonly occur in multivariate time series data, making predictive tasks difficult. These challenges are especially prevalent in the healthcare domain, where patients' vital signs and electronic records are collected at different frequencies and have occasionally missing information due to the imperfections in equipment or patient circumstances. Researchers have handled each of these issues differently, often handling missing data through mean value imputation and then using sequence models over the multivariate signals while ignoring the different resolution of signals. We propose a unified model named Multi-resolution Flexible Irregular Time series Network (Multi-FIT). The building block for Multi-FIT is the FIT network. The FIT network creates an informative dense representation at each time step using signal information such as last observed value, time difference since the last observed time stamp and overall mean for the signal. Vertical FIT (FIT-V) is a variant of FIT which also models the relationship between different temporal signals while creating the informative dense representations for the signal. The multi-FIT model uses multiple FIT networks for sets of signals with different resolutions, further facilitating the construction of flexible representations. Our model has three main contributions: a.) it does not impute values but rather creates informative representations to provide flexibility to the model for creating task-specific representations b.) it models the relationship between different signals in the form of support signals c.) it models different resolutions in parallel before merging them for the final prediction task. The FIT, FIT-V and Multi-FIT networks improve upon the state-of-the-art models for three predictive tasks, including the forecasting of patient survival.

Reward models are key in reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) systems, aligning the model behavior with human preferences. Particularly in the math domain, there have been plenty of studies using reward models to align policies for improving reasoning capabilities. Recently, as the importance of reward models has been emphasized, RewardBench is proposed to understand their behavior. However, we figure out that the math subset of RewardBench has different representations between chosen and rejected completions, and relies on a single comparison, which may lead to unreliable results as it only see an isolated case. Therefore, it fails to accurately present the robustness of reward models, leading to a misunderstanding of its performance and potentially resulting in reward hacking. In this work, we introduce a new design for reliable evaluation of reward models, and to validate this, we construct RewardMATH, a benchmark that effectively represents the robustness of reward models in mathematical reasoning tasks. We demonstrate that the scores on RewardMATH strongly correlate with the results of optimized policy and effectively estimate reward overoptimization, whereas the existing benchmark shows almost no correlation. The results underscore the potential of our design to enhance the reliability of evaluation, and represent the robustness of reward model. We make our code and data publicly available.

We introduce Diffusion World Model (DWM), a conditional diffusion model capable of predicting multistep future states and rewards concurrently. As opposed to traditional one-step dynamics models, DWM offers long-horizon predictions in a single forward pass, eliminating the need for recursive quires. We integrate DWM into model-based value estimation, where the short-term return is simulated by future trajectories sampled from DWM. In the context of offline reinforcement learning, DWM can be viewed as a conservative value regularization through generative modeling. Alternatively, it can be seen as a data source that enables offline Q-learning with synthetic data. Our experiments on the D4RL dataset confirm the robustness of DWM to long-horizon simulation. In terms of absolute performance, DWM significantly surpasses one-step dynamics models with a 44% performance gain, and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to the popular transformer-based models and have been increasingly gaining attention. Compared to transformers, SSMs excel at tasks with sequential data or longer contexts, demonstrating comparable performances with significant efficiency gains. In this survey, we provide a coherent and systematic overview for SSMs, including their theoretical motivations, mathematical formulations, comparison with existing model classes, and various applications. We divide the SSM series into three main sections, providing a detailed introduction to the original SSM, the structured SSM represented by S4, and the selective SSM typified by Mamba. We put an emphasis on technicality, and highlight the various key techniques introduced to address the effectiveness and efficiency of SSMs. We hope this manuscript serves as an introduction for researchers to explore the theoretical foundations of SSMs.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

Networks have become indispensable and ubiquitous structures in many fields to model the interactions among different entities, such as friendship in social networks or protein interactions in biological graphs. A major challenge is to understand the structure and dynamics of these systems. Although networks evolve through time, most existing graph representation learning methods target only static networks. Whereas approaches have been developed for the modeling of dynamic networks, there is a lack of efficient continuous time dynamic graph representation learning methods that can provide accurate network characterization and visualization in low dimensions while explicitly accounting for prominent network characteristics such as homophily and transitivity. In this paper, we propose the Piecewise-Velocity Model (PiVeM) for the representation of continuous-time dynamic networks. It learns dynamic embeddings in which the temporal evolution of nodes is approximated by piecewise linear interpolations based on a latent distance model with piecewise constant node-specific velocities. The model allows for analytically tractable expressions of the associated Poisson process likelihood with scalable inference invariant to the number of events. We further impose a scalable Kronecker structured Gaussian Process prior to the dynamics accounting for community structure, temporal smoothness, and disentangled (uncorrelated) latent embedding dimensions optimally learned to characterize the network dynamics. We show that PiVeM can successfully represent network structure and dynamics in ultra-low two-dimensional spaces. It outperforms relevant state-of-art methods in downstream tasks such as link prediction. In summary, PiVeM enables easily interpretable dynamic network visualizations and characterizations that can further improve our understanding of the intrinsic dynamics of time-evolving networks.

Automating radiology report generation can significantly alleviate radiologists' workloads. Previous research has primarily focused on realizing highly concise observations while neglecting the precise attributes that determine the severity of diseases (e.g., small pleural effusion). Since incorrect attributes will lead to imprecise radiology reports, strengthening the generation process with precise attribute modeling becomes necessary. Additionally, the temporal information contained in the historical records, which is crucial in evaluating a patient's current condition (e.g., heart size is unchanged), has also been largely disregarded. To address these issues, we propose RECAP, which generates precise and accurate radiology reports via dynamic disease progression reasoning. Specifically, RECAP first predicts the observations and progressions (i.e., spatiotemporal information) given two consecutive radiographs. It then combines the historical records, spatiotemporal information, and radiographs for report generation, where a disease progression graph and dynamic progression reasoning mechanism are devised to accurately select the attributes of each observation and progression. Extensive experiments on two publicly available datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model.

Score-based diffusion models are a class of generative models whose dynamics is described by stochastic differential equations that map noise into data. While recent works have started to lay down a theoretical foundation for these models, an analytical understanding of the role of the diffusion time T is still lacking. Current best practice advocates for a large T to ensure that the forward dynamics brings the diffusion sufficiently close to a known and simple noise distribution; however, a smaller value of T should be preferred for a better approximation of the score-matching objective and higher computational efficiency. Starting from a variational interpretation of diffusion models, in this work we quantify this trade-off, and suggest a new method to improve quality and efficiency of both training and sampling, by adopting smaller diffusion times. Indeed, we show how an auxiliary model can be used to bridge the gap between the ideal and the simulated forward dynamics, followed by a standard reverse diffusion process. Empirical results support our analysis; for image data, our method is competitive w.r.t. the state-of-the-art, according to standard sample quality metrics and log-likelihood.

Machine learning models are increasingly used to automate decisions that affect humans - deciding who should receive a loan, a job interview, or a social service. In such applications, a person should have the ability to change the decision of a model. When a person is denied a loan by a credit score, for example, they should be able to alter its input variables in a way that guarantees approval. Otherwise, they will be denied the loan as long as the model is deployed. More importantly, they will lack the ability to influence a decision that affects their livelihood. In this paper, we frame these issues in terms of recourse, which we define as the ability of a person to change the decision of a model by altering actionable input variables (e.g., income vs. age or marital status). We present integer programming tools to ensure recourse in linear classification problems without interfering in model development. We demonstrate how our tools can inform stakeholders through experiments on credit scoring problems. Our results show that recourse can be significantly affected by standard practices in model development, and motivate the need to evaluate recourse in practice.

Model merging integrates the weights of multiple task-specific models into a single multi-task model. Despite recent interest in the problem, a significant performance gap between the combined and single-task models remains. In this paper, we investigate the key characteristics of task matrices -- weight update matrices applied to a pre-trained model -- that enable effective merging. We show that alignment between singular components of task-specific and merged matrices strongly correlates with performance improvement over the pre-trained model. Based on this, we propose an isotropic merging framework that flattens the singular value spectrum of task matrices, enhances alignment, and reduces the performance gap. Additionally, we incorporate both common and task-specific subspaces to further improve alignment and performance. Our proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple scenarios, including various sets of tasks and model scales. This work advances the understanding of model merging dynamics, offering an effective methodology to merge models without requiring additional training. Code is available at https://github.com/danielm1405/iso-merging .

AI systems are notorious for their fragility; minor input changes can potentially cause major output swings. When such systems are deployed in critical areas like finance, the consequences of their uncertain behavior could be severe. In this paper, we focus on multi-modal time-series forecasting, where imprecision due to noisy or incorrect data can lead to erroneous predictions, impacting stakeholders such as analysts, investors, and traders. Recently, it has been shown that beyond numeric data, graphical transformations can be used with advanced visual models to achieve better performance. In this context, we introduce a rating methodology to assess the robustness of Multi-Modal Time-Series Forecasting Models (MM-TSFM) through causal analysis, which helps us understand and quantify the isolated impact of various attributes on the forecasting accuracy of MM-TSFM. We apply our novel rating method on a variety of numeric and multi-modal forecasting models in a large experimental setup (six input settings of control and perturbations, ten data distributions, time series from six leading stocks in three industries over a year of data, and five time-series forecasters) to draw insights on robust forecasting models and the context of their strengths. Within the scope of our study, our main result is that multi-modal (numeric + visual) forecasting, which was found to be more accurate than numeric forecasting in previous studies, can also be more robust in diverse settings. Our work will help different stakeholders of time-series forecasting understand the models` behaviors along trust (robustness) and accuracy dimensions to select an appropriate model for forecasting using our rating method, leading to improved decision-making.

Diffusion models have emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models in modeling discrete categorical data. Yet diffusion models that directly work on discrete data space do not fully exploit the power of iterative refinement, as the signals are lost during the transition between discrete states. Existing continuous diffusion models for discrete data have limited performance compared to discrete approaches, and the unclear link between them restricts the development of diffusion models for discrete data. In this work, we propose a continuous diffusion model for language modeling that incorporates the geometry of the underlying categorical distribution. We establish a connection between the discrete diffusion and continuous flow on the statistical manifold, and building on the analogy, we introduce a simple design for the diffusion process that generalizes previous discrete diffusion models. We further propose a simulation-free training framework based on radial symmetry and a simple technique to address the high dimensionality of the manifold. Comprehensive experiments on language modeling benchmarks and other modalities show that our method outperforms existing discrete diffusion models and approaches the performance of autoregressive models. Codes available at https://github.com/harryjo97/RDLM{https://github.com/harryjo97/RDLM}.

Language models trained on large-scale corpus often generate content that is harmful, toxic, or contrary to human preferences, making their alignment with human values a critical concern. Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) with algorithms like PPO is a prevalent approach for alignment but is often complex, unstable, and resource-intensive. Recently, ranking-based alignment methods have emerged, offering stability and effectiveness by replacing the RL framework with supervised fine-tuning, but they are costly due to the need for annotated data. Considering that existing large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT are already relatively well-aligned and cost-friendly, researchers have begun to align the language model with human preference from AI feedback. The common practices, which unidirectionally distill the instruction-following responses from LLMs, are constrained by their bottleneck. Thus we introduce CycleAlign to distill alignment capabilities from parameter-invisible LLMs (black-box) to a parameter-visible model (white-box) in an iterative manner. With in-context learning (ICL) as the core of the cycle, the black-box models are able to rank the model-generated responses guided by human-craft instruction and demonstrations about their preferences. During iterative interaction, the white-box models also have a judgment about responses generated by them. Consequently, the agreement ranking could be viewed as a pseudo label to dynamically update the in-context demonstrations and improve the preference ranking ability of black-box models. Through multiple interactions, the CycleAlign framework could align the white-box model with the black-box model effectively in a low-resource way. Empirical results illustrate that the model fine-tuned by CycleAlign remarkably exceeds existing methods, and achieves the state-of-the-art performance in alignment with human value.

Institutional investors have been increasing the allocation of the illiquid alternative assets such as private equity funds in their portfolios, yet there exists a very limited literature on cash flow forecasting of illiquid alternative assets. The net cash flow of private equity funds typically follow a J-curve pattern, however the timing and the size of the contributions and distributions depend on the investment opportunities. In this paper, we develop a benchmark model and present two novel approaches (direct vs. indirect) to predict the cash flows of private equity funds. We introduce a sliding window approach to apply on our cash flow data because different vintage year funds contain different lengths of cash flow information. We then pass the data to an LSTM/ GRU model to predict the future cash flows either directly or indirectly (based on the benchmark model). We further integrate macroeconomic indicators into our data, which allows us to consider the impact of market environment on cash flows and to apply stress testing. Our results indicate that the direct model is easier to implement compared to the benchmark model and the indirect model, but still the predicted cash flows align better with the actual cash flows. We also show that macroeconomic variables improve the performance of the direct model whereas the impact is not obvious on the indirect model.

Recent breakthroughs in large language modeling have facilitated rigorous exploration of their application in diverse tasks related to tabular data modeling, such as prediction, tabular data synthesis, question answering, and table understanding. Each task presents unique challenges and opportunities. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive review that summarizes and compares the key techniques, metrics, datasets, models, and optimization approaches in this research domain. This survey aims to address this gap by consolidating recent progress in these areas, offering a thorough survey and taxonomy of the datasets, metrics, and methodologies utilized. It identifies strengths, limitations, unexplored territories, and gaps in the existing literature, while providing some insights for future research directions in this vital and rapidly evolving field. It also provides relevant code and datasets references. Through this comprehensive review, we hope to provide interested readers with pertinent references and insightful perspectives, empowering them with the necessary tools and knowledge to effectively navigate and address the prevailing challenges in the field.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

This study evaluates deep neural networks for forecasting probability distributions of financial returns. 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures are used to forecast parameters of three probability distributions: Normal, Student's t, and skewed Student's t. Using custom negative log-likelihood loss functions, distribution parameters are optimized directly. The models are tested on six major equity indices (S\&P 500, BOVESPA, DAX, WIG, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI) using probabilistic evaluation metrics including Log Predictive Score (LPS), Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Results show that deep learning models provide accurate distributional forecasts and perform competitively with classical GARCH models for Value-at-Risk estimation. The LSTM with skewed Student's t distribution performs best across multiple evaluation criteria, capturing both heavy tails and asymmetry in financial returns. This work shows that deep neural networks are viable alternatives to traditional econometric models for financial risk assessment and portfolio management.

Organizations typically train large models individually. This is costly and time-consuming, particularly for large-scale foundation models. Such vertical production is known to be suboptimal. Inspired by this economic insight, we ask whether it is possible to leverage others' expertise by trading the constituent parts in models, i.e., sets of weights, as if they were market commodities. While recent advances in aligning and interpolating models suggest that doing so may be possible, a number of fundamental questions must be answered to create viable parameter markets. In this work, we address these basic questions, propose a framework containing the infrastructure necessary for market operations to take place, study strategies for exchanging parameters, and offer means for agents to monetize parameters. Excitingly, compared to agents who train siloed models from scratch, we show that it is possible to mutually gain by using the market, even in competitive settings. This suggests that the notion of parameter markets may be a useful paradigm for improving large-scale model training in the future.

We introduce PaLM 2, a new state-of-the-art language model that has better multilingual and reasoning capabilities and is more compute-efficient than its predecessor PaLM. PaLM 2 is a Transformer-based model trained using a mixture of objectives. Through extensive evaluations on English and multilingual language, and reasoning tasks, we demonstrate that PaLM 2 has significantly improved quality on downstream tasks across different model sizes, while simultaneously exhibiting faster and more efficient inference compared to PaLM. This improved efficiency enables broader deployment while also allowing the model to respond faster, for a more natural pace of interaction. PaLM 2 demonstrates robust reasoning capabilities exemplified by large improvements over PaLM on BIG-Bench and other reasoning tasks. PaLM 2 exhibits stable performance on a suite of responsible AI evaluations, and enables inference-time control over toxicity without additional overhead or impact on other capabilities. Overall, PaLM 2 achieves state-of-the-art performance across a diverse set of tasks and capabilities. When discussing the PaLM 2 family, it is important to distinguish between pre-trained models (of various sizes), fine-tuned variants of these models, and the user-facing products that use these models. In particular, user-facing products typically include additional pre- and post-processing steps. Additionally, the underlying models may evolve over time. Therefore, one should not expect the performance of user-facing products to exactly match the results reported in this report.

Diffusion models are powerful generative models that simulate the reverse of diffusion processes using score functions to synthesize data from noise. The sampling process of diffusion models can be interpreted as solving the reverse stochastic differential equation (SDE) or the ordinary differential equation (ODE) of the diffusion process, which often requires up to thousands of discretization steps to generate a single image. This has sparked a great interest in developing efficient integration techniques for reverse-S/ODEs. Here, we propose an orthogonal approach to accelerating score-based sampling: Denoising MCMC (DMCMC). DMCMC first uses MCMC to produce samples in the product space of data and variance (or diffusion time). Then, a reverse-S/ODE integrator is used to denoise the MCMC samples. Since MCMC traverses close to the data manifold, the computation cost of producing a clean sample for DMCMC is much less than that of producing a clean sample from noise. To verify the proposed concept, we show that Denoising Langevin Gibbs (DLG), an instance of DMCMC, successfully accelerates all six reverse-S/ODE integrators considered in this work on the tasks of CIFAR10 and CelebA-HQ-256 image generation. Notably, combined with integrators of Karras et al. (2022) and pre-trained score models of Song et al. (2021b), DLG achieves SOTA results. In the limited number of score function evaluation (NFE) settings on CIFAR10, we have 3.86 FID with approx 10 NFE and 2.63 FID with approx 20 NFE. On CelebA-HQ-256, we have 6.99 FID with approx 160 NFE, which beats the current best record of Kim et al. (2022) among score-based models, 7.16 FID with 4000 NFE. Code: https://github.com/1202kbs/DMCMC

Perception-enhanced pre-training, particularly through grounding techniques, is widely adopted to enhance the performance of graphical user interface (GUI) agents. However, in resource-constrained scenarios, the format discrepancy between coordinate-oriented grounding and action-oriented reasoning limits the effectiveness of grounding for reasoning tasks. To address this challenge, we propose a query-oriented pivot approach called query inference, which serves as a bridge between GUI grounding and reasoning. By inferring potential user queries from a screenshot and its associated element coordinates, query inference improves the understanding of coordinates while aligning more closely with reasoning tasks. Experimental results show that query inference outperforms previous grounding techniques under the same training data scale. Notably, query inference achieves comparable or even better performance to large-scale grounding-enhanced OS-Atlas with less than 0.1% of training data. Furthermore, we explore the impact of reasoning formats and demonstrate that integrating additional semantic information into the input further boosts reasoning performance. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZrW00/GUIPivot.

Business Intelligence (BI) is crucial in modern enterprises and billion-dollar business. Traditionally, technical experts like database administrators would manually prepare BI-models (e.g., in star or snowflake schemas) that join tables in data warehouses, before less-technical business users can run analytics using end-user dashboarding tools. However, the popularity of self-service BI (e.g., Tableau and Power-BI) in recent years creates a strong demand for less technical end-users to build BI-models themselves. We develop an Auto-BI system that can accurately predict BI models given a set of input tables, using a principled graph-based optimization problem we propose called k-Min-Cost-Arborescence (k-MCA), which holistically considers both local join prediction and global schema-graph structures, leveraging a graph-theoretical structure called arborescence. While we prove k-MCA is intractable and inapproximate in general, we develop novel algorithms that can solve k-MCA optimally, which is shown to be efficient in practice with sub-second latency and can scale to the largest BI-models we encounter (with close to 100 tables). Auto-BI is rigorously evaluated on a unique dataset with over 100K real BI models we harvested, as well as on 4 popular TPC benchmarks. It is shown to be both efficient and accurate, achieving over 0.9 F1-score on both real and synthetic benchmarks.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

Mathematical modeling involves representing real-world phenomena, systems, or problems using mathematical expressions and equations to analyze, understand, and predict their behavior. Given that this process typically requires experienced experts, there is an interest in exploring whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can undertake mathematical modeling to potentially decrease human labor. To evaluate of LLMs in mathematical modeling, we introduce a new benchmark, Mamo, that transcends traditional result-oriented assessments. Unlike conventional methods that primarily assess LLMs based on the accuracy of solutions to mathematical problems, our approach offers deeper insight into the modeling process itself. By focusing on the processes LLMs undertake rather than the correctness of their final solutions, Mamo pioneers a novel evaluation paradigm. This shift underscores the importance of understanding the inherent modeling capabilities of LLMs, paving the way for a more nuanced and comprehensive analysis of their problem-solving strategies. Our work marks a significant advancement in the field, suggesting a new direction for future research by emphasizing the evaluation of LLMs' modeling processes over the mere correctness of answers. This benchmark not only facilitates a better understanding of LLMs' mathematical modeling capabilities but also sets a new standard for evaluating their performance in complex problem-solving scenarios.

For a long-time, researchers have been developing a reliable and accurate predictive model for stock price prediction. According to the literature, if predictive models are correctly designed and refined, they can painstakingly and faithfully estimate future stock values. This paper demonstrates a set of time series, econometric, and various learning-based models for stock price prediction. The data of Infosys, ICICI, and SUN PHARMA from the period of January 2004 to December 2019 was used here for training and testing the models to know which model performs best in which sector. One time series model (Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing), one econometric model (ARIMA), two machine Learning models (Random Forest and MARS), and two deep learning-based models (simple RNN and LSTM) have been included in this paper. MARS has been proved to be the best performing machine learning model, while LSTM has proved to be the best performing deep learning model. But overall, for all three sectors - IT (on Infosys data), Banking (on ICICI data), and Health (on SUN PHARMA data), MARS has proved to be the best performing model in sales forecasting.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

Consistency Models (CM) (Song et al., 2023) accelerate score-based diffusion model sampling at the cost of sample quality but lack a natural way to trade-off quality for speed. To address this limitation, we propose Consistency Trajectory Model (CTM), a generalization encompassing CM and score-based models as special cases. CTM trains a single neural network that can -- in a single forward pass -- output scores (i.e., gradients of log-density) and enables unrestricted traversal between any initial and final time along the Probability Flow Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) in a diffusion process. CTM enables the efficient combination of adversarial training and denoising score matching loss to enhance performance and achieves new state-of-the-art FIDs for single-step diffusion model sampling on CIFAR-10 (FID 1.73) and ImageNet at 64x64 resolution (FID 1.92). CTM also enables a new family of sampling schemes, both deterministic and stochastic, involving long jumps along the ODE solution trajectories. It consistently improves sample quality as computational budgets increase, avoiding the degradation seen in CM. Furthermore, unlike CM, CTM's access to the score function can streamline the adoption of established controllable/conditional generation methods from the diffusion community. This access also enables the computation of likelihood. The code is available at https://github.com/sony/ctm.

This paper makes a formal connection between two families of widely used matrix factorization algorithms in numerical linear algebra. One family consists of the Jacobi eigenvalue algorithm and its variants for computing the Hermitian eigendecomposition and singular value decomposition. The other consists of Gaussian elimination and the Gram-Schmidt procedure with various pivoting rules for computing the Cholesky decomposition and QR decomposition respectively. Both families are cast as special cases of a more general class of factorization algorithms. We provide a randomized pivoting rule that applies to this general class (which differs substantially from the usual pivoting rules for Gaussian elimination / Gram-Schmidt) which results in the same linear rate of convergence for each algorithm, irrespective of which factorization it computes. A second important consequence of this randomized pivoting rule is a provable, effective bound on the numerical stability of the Jacobi eigenvalue algorithm, which addresses a longstanding open problem of Demmel and Veseli\'c `92.

The assumption that response and predictor belong to the same statistical unit may be violated in practice. Unbiased estimation and recovery of true label ordering based on unlabeled data are challenging tasks and have attracted increasing attentions in the recent literature. In this paper, we present a relatively complete analysis of label permutation problem for the generalized linear model with multivariate responses. The theory is established under different scenarios, with knowledge of true parameters, with partial knowledge of underlying label permutation matrix and without any knowledge. Our results remove the stringent conditions required by the current literature and are further extended to the missing observation setting which has never been considered in the field of label permutation problem. On computational side, we propose two methods, "maximum likelihood estimation" algorithm and "two-step estimation" algorithm, to accommodate for different settings. When the proportion of permuted labels is moderate, both methods work effectively. Multiple numerical experiments are provided and corroborate our theoretical findings.

Using the weights of trained Neural Network (NN) models as data modality has recently gained traction as a research field - dubbed Weight Space Learning (WSL). Multiple recent works propose WSL methods to analyze models, evaluate methods, or synthesize weights. Weight space learning methods require populations of trained models as datasets for development and evaluation. However, existing collections of models - called `model zoos' - are unstructured or follow a rudimentary definition of diversity. In parallel, work rooted in statistical physics has identified phases and phase transitions in NN models. Models are homogeneous within the same phase but qualitatively differ from one phase to another. We combine the idea of `model zoos' with phase information to create a controlled notion of diversity in populations. We introduce 12 large-scale zoos that systematically cover known phases and vary over model architecture, size, and datasets. These datasets cover different modalities, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific ML. For every model, we compute loss landscape metrics and validate full coverage of the phases. With this dataset, we provide the community with a resource with a wide range of potential applications for WSL and beyond. Evidence suggests the loss landscape phase plays a role in applications such as model training, analysis, or sparsification. We demonstrate this in an exploratory study of the downstream methods like transfer learning or model weights averaging.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

Seven years ago, researchers proposed a postprocessing method to equalize the error rates of a model across different demographic groups. The work launched hundreds of papers purporting to improve over the postprocessing baseline. We empirically evaluate these claims through thousands of model evaluations on several tabular datasets. We find that the fairness-accuracy Pareto frontier achieved by postprocessing contains all other methods we were feasibly able to evaluate. In doing so, we address two common methodological errors that have confounded previous observations. One relates to the comparison of methods with different unconstrained base models. The other concerns methods achieving different levels of constraint relaxation. At the heart of our study is a simple idea we call unprocessing that roughly corresponds to the inverse of postprocessing. Unprocessing allows for a direct comparison of methods using different underlying models and levels of relaxation.

Transformer-based foundation models have emerged as a dominant paradigm in time series analysis, offering unprecedented capabilities in tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, trend analysis and many more time series analytical tasks. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the art pre-trained foundation models, introducing a novel taxonomy to categorize them across several dimensions. Specifically, we classify models by their architecture design, distinguishing between those leveraging patch-based representations and those operating directly on raw sequences. The taxonomy further includes whether the models provide probabilistic or deterministic predictions, and whether they are designed to work with univariate time series or can handle multivariate time series out of the box. Additionally, the taxonomy encompasses model scale and complexity, highlighting differences between lightweight architectures and large-scale foundation models. A unique aspect of this survey is its categorization by the type of objective function employed during training phase. By synthesizing these perspectives, this survey serves as a resource for researchers and practitioners, providing insights into current trends and identifying promising directions for future research in transformer-based time series modeling.

Diffusion Models (DM) and Consistency Models (CM) are two types of popular generative models with good generation quality on various tasks. When training DM and CM, intermediate weight checkpoints are not fully utilized and only the last converged checkpoint is used. In this work, we find that high-quality model weights often lie in a basin which cannot be reached by SGD but can be obtained by proper checkpoint averaging. Based on these observations, we propose LCSC, a simple but effective and efficient method to enhance the performance of DM and CM, by combining checkpoints along the training trajectory with coefficients deduced from evolutionary search. We demonstrate the value of LCSC through two use cases: (a) Reducing training cost. With LCSC, we only need to train DM/CM with fewer number of iterations and/or lower batch sizes to obtain comparable sample quality with the fully trained model. For example, LCSC achieves considerable training speedups for CM (23times on CIFAR-10 and 15times on ImageNet-64). (b) Enhancing pre-trained models. Assuming full training is already done, LCSC can further improve the generation quality or speed of the final converged models. For example, LCSC achieves better performance using 1 number of function evaluation (NFE) than the base model with 2 NFE on consistency distillation, and decreases the NFE of DM from 15 to 9 while maintaining the generation quality on CIFAR-10. Our code is available at https://github.com/imagination-research/LCSC.

Diffusion models are a class of generative models that learn to synthesize samples by inverting a diffusion process that gradually maps data into noise. While these models have enjoyed great success recently, a full theoretical understanding of their observed properties is still lacking, in particular, their weak sensitivity to the choice of noise family and the role of adequate scheduling of noise levels for good synthesis. By identifying a correspondence between diffusion models and a well-known paradigm in cognitive science known as serial reproduction, whereby human agents iteratively observe and reproduce stimuli from memory, we show how the aforementioned properties of diffusion models can be explained as a natural consequence of this correspondence. We then complement our theoretical analysis with simulations that exhibit these key features. Our work highlights how classic paradigms in cognitive science can shed light on state-of-the-art machine learning problems.

The availability of performant pre-trained models has led to a proliferation of fine-tuned expert models that are specialized to a particular domain or task. Model MoErging methods aim to recycle expert models to create an aggregate system with improved performance or generalization. A key component of MoErging methods is the creation of a router that decides which expert model(s) to use for a particular input or application. The promise, effectiveness, and large design space of MoErging has spurred the development of many new methods over the past few years. This rapid pace of development has made it challenging to compare different MoErging methods, which are rarely compared to one another and are often validated in different experimental setups. To remedy such gaps, we present a comprehensive survey of MoErging methods that includes a novel taxonomy for cataloging key design choices and clarifying suitable applications for each method. Apart from surveying MoErging research, we inventory software tools and applications that make use of MoErging. We additionally discuss related fields of study such as model merging, multitask learning, and mixture-of-experts models. Taken as a whole, our survey provides a unified overview of existing MoErging methods and creates a solid foundation for future work in this burgeoning field.

Model merging has emerged as an effective approach to combine multiple single-task models into a multitask model. This process typically involves computing a weighted average of the model parameters without any additional training. Existing model-merging methods focus on enhancing average task accuracy. However, interference and conflicts between the objectives of different tasks can lead to trade-offs during the merging process. In real-world applications, a set of solutions with various trade-offs can be more informative, helping practitioners make decisions based on diverse preferences. In this paper, we introduce a novel and low-compute algorithm, Model Merging with Amortized Pareto Front (MAP). MAP efficiently identifies a Pareto set of scaling coefficients for merging multiple models, reflecting the trade-offs involved. It amortizes the substantial computational cost of evaluations needed to estimate the Pareto front by using quadratic approximation surrogate models derived from a pre-selected set of scaling coefficients. Experimental results on vision and natural language processing tasks demonstrate that MAP can accurately identify the Pareto front, providing practitioners with flexible solutions to balance competing task objectives. We also introduce Bayesian MAP for scenarios with a relatively low number of tasks and Nested MAP for situations with a high number of tasks, further reducing the computational cost of evaluation.

Building predictive models for robust and accurate prediction of stock prices and stock price movement is a challenging research problem to solve. The well-known efficient market hypothesis believes in the impossibility of accurate prediction of future stock prices in an efficient stock market as the stock prices are assumed to be purely stochastic. However, numerous works proposed by researchers have demonstrated that it is possible to predict future stock prices with a high level of precision using sophisticated algorithms, model architectures, and the selection of appropriate variables in the models. This chapter proposes a collection of predictive regression models built on deep learning architecture for robust and precise prediction of the future prices of a stock listed in the diversified sectors in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The Metastock tool is used to download the historical stock prices over a period of two years (2013- 2014) at 5 minutes intervals. While the records for the first year are used to train the models, the testing is carried out using the remaining records. The design approaches of all the models and their performance results are presented in detail. The models are also compared based on their execution time and accuracy of prediction.

As post-training processes utilize increasingly large datasets and base models continue to grow in size, the computational demands and implementation challenges of existing algorithms are escalating significantly. In this paper, we propose modeling the changes at the logits level during post-training using a separate neural network (i.e., the value network). After training this network on a small base model using demonstrations, this network can be seamlessly integrated with other pre-trained models during inference, enables them to achieve similar capability enhancements. We systematically investigate the best practices for this paradigm in terms of pre-training weights and connection schemes. We demonstrate that the resulting value network has broad transferability across pre-trained models of different parameter sizes within the same family, models undergoing continuous pre-training within the same family, and models with different vocabularies across families. In certain cases, it can achieve performance comparable to full-parameter fine-tuning. Furthermore, we explore methods to enhance the transferability of the value model and prevent overfitting to the base model used during training.

Foundation models have become increasingly popular for forecasting due to their ability to provide predictions without requiring a lot of training data. In this work, we demonstrate how TabPFN-v2, a general tabular foundation model, can be effectively applied to time series forecasting. We introduce TabPFN-TS, a simple method that combines TabPFN-v2 with lightweight feature engineering to enable both point and probabilistic forecasting. Despite its simplicity and compact size (11M parameters), TabPFN-TS achieves top rank on the public GIFT-Eval leaderboard in both forecasting tasks. Through ablation studies, we investigate factors contributing to this surprising effectiveness, especially considering TabPFN-v2 was pretrained solely on synthetic tabular data with no exposure to time series. Our results highlights the potential of tabular foundation models like TabPFN-v2 as a valuable new approach for time series forecasting. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/PriorLabs/tabpfn-time-series.

As large language models increasingly drive real-world applications, aligning them with human values becomes paramount. Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a key technique, translating preference data into reward models when oracle human values remain inaccessible. In practice, RLHF mostly relies on approximate reward models, which may not consistently guide the policy toward maximizing the underlying human values. We propose Policy-Interpolated Learning for Aligned Feedback (PILAF), a novel response sampling strategy for preference labeling that explicitly aligns preference learning with maximizing the underlying oracle reward. PILAF is theoretically grounded, demonstrating optimality from both an optimization and a statistical perspective. The method is straightforward to implement and demonstrates strong performance in iterative and online RLHF settings where feedback curation is critical.

Recently, Ainsworth et al. showed that using weight matching (WM) to minimize the L_2 distance in a permutation search of model parameters effectively identifies permutations that satisfy linear mode connectivity (LMC), in which the loss along a linear path between two independently trained models with different seeds remains nearly constant. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of LMC using WM, which is crucial for understanding stochastic gradient descent's effectiveness and its application in areas like model merging. We first experimentally and theoretically show that permutations found by WM do not significantly reduce the L_2 distance between two models and the occurrence of LMC is not merely due to distance reduction by WM in itself. We then provide theoretical insights showing that permutations can change the directions of the singular vectors, but not the singular values, of the weight matrices in each layer. This finding shows that permutations found by WM mainly align the directions of singular vectors associated with large singular values across models. This alignment brings the singular vectors with large singular values, which determine the model functionality, closer between pre-merged and post-merged models, so that the post-merged model retains functionality similar to the pre-merged models, making it easy to satisfy LMC. Finally, we analyze the difference between WM and straight-through estimator (STE), a dataset-dependent permutation search method, and show that WM outperforms STE, especially when merging three or more models.

Benchmarks that closely reflect downstream application scenarios are essential for the streamlined adoption of new research in tabular machine learning (ML). In this work, we examine existing tabular benchmarks and find two common characteristics of industry-grade tabular data that are underrepresented in the datasets available to the academic community. First, tabular data often changes over time in real-world deployment scenarios. This impacts model performance and requires time-based train and test splits for correct model evaluation. Yet, existing academic tabular datasets often lack timestamp metadata to enable such evaluation. Second, a considerable portion of datasets in production settings stem from extensive data acquisition and feature engineering pipelines. For each specific dataset, this can have a different impact on the absolute and relative number of predictive, uninformative, and correlated features, which in turn can affect model selection. To fill the aforementioned gaps in academic benchmarks, we introduce TabReD -- a collection of eight industry-grade tabular datasets covering a wide range of domains from finance to food delivery services. We assess a large number of tabular ML models in the feature-rich, temporally-evolving data setting facilitated by TabReD. We demonstrate that evaluation on time-based data splits leads to different methods ranking, compared to evaluation on random splits more common in academic benchmarks. Furthermore, on the TabReD datasets, MLP-like architectures and GBDT show the best results, while more sophisticated DL models are yet to prove their effectiveness.

Modeling human preferences is crucial for aligning foundation models with human values. Traditional reward modeling methods, such as the Bradley-Terry (BT) reward model, fall short in expressiveness, particularly in addressing intransitive preferences. Although supervised pair preference models (PairPM) can express general preferences, their implementation is highly ad-hoc and cannot guarantee a consistent preference probability of compared pairs. Additionally, they impose high computational costs due to their quadratic query complexity when comparing multiple responses. In this paper, we introduce preference representation learning, an approach that embeds responses into a latent space to capture intricate preference structures efficiently, achieving linear query complexity. Additionally, we propose preference score-based General Preference Optimization (GPO), which generalizes reward-based reinforcement learning from human feedback. Experimental results show that our General Preference representation model (GPM) outperforms the BT reward model on the RewardBench benchmark with a margin of up to 5.6% and effectively models cyclic preferences where any BT reward model behaves like a random guess. Furthermore, evaluations on downstream tasks such as AlpacaEval2.0 and MT-Bench, following the language model post-training with GPO and our general preference model, reveal substantial performance improvements with margins up to 9.3%. These findings indicate that our method may enhance the alignment of foundation models with nuanced human values. The code is available at https://github.com/general-preference/general-preference-model.

The integration of large language models (LLMs) on low-power edge devices such as Raspberry Pi, known as edge language models (ELMs), has introduced opportunities for more personalized, secure, and low-latency language intelligence that is accessible to all. However, the resource constraints inherent in edge devices and the lack of robust ethical safeguards in language models raise significant concerns about fairness, accountability, and transparency in model output generation. This paper conducts a comparative analysis of text-based bias across language model deployments on edge, cloud, and desktop environments, aiming to evaluate how deployment settings influence model fairness. Specifically, we examined an optimized Llama-2 model running on a Raspberry Pi 4; GPT 4o-mini, Gemini-1.5-flash, and Grok-beta models running on cloud servers; and Gemma2 and Mistral models running on a MacOS desktop machine. Our results demonstrate that Llama-2 running on Raspberry Pi 4 is 43.23% and 21.89% more prone to showing bias over time compared to models running on the desktop and cloud-based environments. We also propose the implementation of a feedback loop, a mechanism that iteratively adjusts model behavior based on previous outputs, where predefined constraint weights are applied layer-by-layer during inference, allowing the model to correct bias patterns, resulting in 79.28% reduction in model bias.

Most economic theories typically assume that financial market participants are fully rational individuals and use mathematical models to simulate human behavior in financial markets. However, human behavior is often not entirely rational and is challenging to predict accurately with mathematical models. In this paper, we propose Agent-based Simulated Financial Market (ASFM), which first constructs a simulated stock market with a real order matching system. Then, we propose a large language model based agent as the stock trader, which contains the profile, observation, and tool-learning based action module. The trading agent can comprehensively understand current market dynamics and financial policy information, and make decisions that align with their trading strategy. In the experiments, we first verify that the reactions of our ASFM are consistent with the real stock market in two controllable scenarios. In addition, we also conduct experiments in two popular economics research directions, and we find that conclusions drawn in our \model align with the preliminary findings in economics research. Based on these observations, we believe our proposed ASFM provides a new paradigm for economic research.

Consistency models are a nascent family of generative models that can sample high quality data in one step without the need for adversarial training. Current consistency models achieve optimal sample quality by distilling from pre-trained diffusion models and employing learned metrics such as LPIPS. However, distillation limits the quality of consistency models to that of the pre-trained diffusion model, and LPIPS causes undesirable bias in evaluation. To tackle these challenges, we present improved techniques for consistency training, where consistency models learn directly from data without distillation. We delve into the theory behind consistency training and identify a previously overlooked flaw, which we address by eliminating Exponential Moving Average from the teacher consistency model. To replace learned metrics like LPIPS, we adopt Pseudo-Huber losses from robust statistics. Additionally, we introduce a lognormal noise schedule for the consistency training objective, and propose to double total discretization steps every set number of training iterations. Combined with better hyperparameter tuning, these modifications enable consistency models to achieve FID scores of 2.51 and 3.25 on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet 64times 64 respectively in a single sampling step. These scores mark a 3.5times and 4times improvement compared to prior consistency training approaches. Through two-step sampling, we further reduce FID scores to 2.24 and 2.77 on these two datasets, surpassing those obtained via distillation in both one-step and two-step settings, while narrowing the gap between consistency models and other state-of-the-art generative models.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

Tabular datasets are ubiquitous in data science applications. Given their importance, it seems natural to apply state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms in order to fully unlock their potential. Here we propose neural network models that represent tabular time series that can optionally leverage their hierarchical structure. This results in two architectures for tabular time series: one for learning representations that is analogous to BERT and can be pre-trained end-to-end and used in downstream tasks, and one that is akin to GPT and can be used for generation of realistic synthetic tabular sequences. We demonstrate our models on two datasets: a synthetic credit card transaction dataset, where the learned representations are used for fraud detection and synthetic data generation, and on a real pollution dataset, where the learned encodings are used to predict atmospheric pollutant concentrations. Code and data are available at https://github.com/IBM/TabFormer.

Large language models are typically adapted to downstream tasks through supervised fine-tuning on domain-specific data. While standard fine-tuning focuses on minimizing generation loss to optimize model parameters, we take a deeper step by retaining and leveraging the model's own learning signals, analogous to how human learners reflect on past mistakes to improve future performance. We first introduce the concept of Mistake Log to systematically track the model's learning behavior and recurring errors throughout fine-tuning. Treating the original transformer-based model as the Pilot, we correspondingly design a Copilot model to refine the Pilot's inference performance via logits rectification. We name the overall Pilot-Copilot framework the Transformer Copilot, which introduces (i) a novel Copilot model design, (ii) a joint training paradigm where the Copilot continuously learns from the evolving Mistake Log alongside the Pilot, and (iii) a fused inference paradigm where the Copilot rectifies the Pilot's logits for enhanced generation. We provide both theoretical and empirical analyses on our new learning framework. Experiments on 12 benchmarks spanning commonsense, arithmetic, and recommendation tasks demonstrate that Transformer Copilot consistently improves performance by up to 34.5%, while introducing marginal computational overhead to Pilot models and exhibiting strong scalability and transferability.

Traditional cooking recipes follow a structure which can be modelled very well if the rules and semantics of the different sections of the recipe text are analyzed and represented accurately. We propose a structure that can accurately represent the recipe as well as a pipeline to infer the best representation of the recipe in this uniform structure. The Ingredients section in a recipe typically lists down the ingredients required and corresponding attributes such as quantity, temperature, and processing state. This can be modelled by defining these attributes and their values. The physical entities which make up a recipe can be broadly classified into utensils, ingredients and their combinations that are related by cooking techniques. The instruction section lists down a series of events in which a cooking technique or process is applied upon these utensils and ingredients. We model these relationships in the form of tuples. Thus, using a combination of these methods we model cooking recipe in the dataset RecipeDB to show the efficacy of our method. This mined information model can have several applications which include translating recipes between languages, determining similarity between recipes, generation of novel recipes and estimation of the nutritional profile of recipes. For the purpose of recognition of ingredient attributes, we train the Named Entity Relationship (NER) models and analyze the inferences with the help of K-Means clustering. Our model presented with an F1 score of 0.95 across all datasets. We use a similar NER tagging model for labelling cooking techniques (F1 score = 0.88) and utensils (F1 score = 0.90) within the instructions section. Finally, we determine the temporal sequence of relationships between ingredients, utensils and cooking techniques for modeling the instruction steps.

Big models, exemplified by Large Language Models (LLMs), are models typically pre-trained on massive data and comprised of enormous parameters, which not only obtain significantly improved performance across diverse tasks but also present emergent capabilities absent in smaller models. However, the growing intertwining of big models with everyday human lives poses potential risks and might cause serious social harm. Therefore, many efforts have been made to align LLMs with humans to make them better follow user instructions and satisfy human preferences. Nevertheless, `what to align with' has not been fully discussed, and inappropriate alignment goals might even backfire. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive survey of different alignment goals in existing work and trace their evolution paths to help identify the most essential goal. Particularly, we investigate related works from two perspectives: the definition of alignment goals and alignment evaluation. Our analysis encompasses three distinct levels of alignment goals and reveals a goal transformation from fundamental abilities to value orientation, indicating the potential of intrinsic human values as the alignment goal for enhanced LLMs. Based on such results, we further discuss the challenges of achieving such intrinsic value alignment and provide a collection of available resources for future research on the alignment of big models.

Time series analysis stands as a focal point within the data mining community, serving as a cornerstone for extracting valuable insights crucial to a myriad of real-world applications. Recent advances in Foundation Models (FMs) have fundamentally reshaped the paradigm of model design for time series analysis, boosting various downstream tasks in practice. These innovative approaches often leverage pre-trained or fine-tuned FMs to harness generalized knowledge tailored for time series analysis. This survey aims to furnish a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of FMs for time series analysis. While prior surveys have predominantly focused on either application or pipeline aspects of FMs in time series analysis, they have often lacked an in-depth understanding of the underlying mechanisms that elucidate why and how FMs benefit time series analysis. To address this gap, our survey adopts a methodology-centric classification, delineating various pivotal elements of time-series FMs, including model architectures, pre-training techniques, adaptation methods, and data modalities. Overall, this survey serves to consolidate the latest advancements in FMs pertinent to time series analysis, accentuating their theoretical underpinnings, recent strides in development, and avenues for future exploration.

AIOps (Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations) solutions leverage the tremendous amount of data produced during the operation of large-scale systems and machine learning models to assist software practitioners in their system operations. Existing AIOps solutions usually maintain AIOps models against concept drift through periodical retraining, despite leaving a pile of discarded historical models that may perform well on specific future data. Other prior works propose dynamically selecting models for prediction tasks from a set of candidate models to optimize the model performance. However, there is no prior work in the AIOps area that assesses the use of model selection mechanisms on historical models to improve model performance or robustness. To fill the gap, we evaluate several model selection mechanisms by assessing their capabilities in selecting the optimal AIOps models that were built in the past to make predictions for the target data. We performed a case study on three large-scale public operation datasets: two trace datasets from the cloud computing platforms of Google and Alibaba, and one disk stats dataset from the BackBlaze cloud storage data center. We observe that the model selection mechnisms utilizing temporal adjacency tend to have a better performance and can prevail the periodical retraining approach. Our findings also highlight a performance gap between existing model selection mechnisms and the theoretical upper bound which may motivate future researchers and practitioners in investigating more efficient and effective model selection mechanisms that fit in the context of AIOps.

Periodic signals play an important role in daily lives. Although conventional sequential models have shown remarkable success in various fields, they still come short in modeling periodicity; they either collapse, diverge or ignore details. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework inspired by Fourier series to generate periodic signals. We first decompose the given signals into multiple sines and cosines and then conditionally generate periodic signals with the output components. We have shown our model efficacy on three tasks: reconstruction, imputation and conditional generation. Our model outperforms baselines in all tasks and shows more stable and refined results.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful new family of deep generative models with record-breaking performance in many applications, including image synthesis, video generation, and molecule design. In this survey, we provide an overview of the rapidly expanding body of work on diffusion models, categorizing the research into three key areas: efficient sampling, improved likelihood estimation, and handling data with special structures. We also discuss the potential for combining diffusion models with other generative models for enhanced results. We further review the wide-ranging applications of diffusion models in fields spanning from computer vision, natural language generation, temporal data modeling, to interdisciplinary applications in other scientific disciplines. This survey aims to provide a contextualized, in-depth look at the state of diffusion models, identifying the key areas of focus and pointing to potential areas for further exploration. Github: https://github.com/YangLing0818/Diffusion-Models-Papers-Survey-Taxonomy.

In this work we propose for the first time a transformer-based framework for unsupervised representation learning of multivariate time series. Pre-trained models can be potentially used for downstream tasks such as regression and classification, forecasting and missing value imputation. By evaluating our models on several benchmark datasets for multivariate time series regression and classification, we show that not only does our modeling approach represent the most successful method employing unsupervised learning of multivariate time series presented to date, but also that it exceeds the current state-of-the-art performance of supervised methods; it does so even when the number of training samples is very limited, while offering computational efficiency. Finally, we demonstrate that unsupervised pre-training of our transformer models offers a substantial performance benefit over fully supervised learning, even without leveraging additional unlabeled data, i.e., by reusing the same data samples through the unsupervised objective.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of interventions. One use of RCTs is to study the causes of global poverty -- a subject explicitly cited in the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize awarded to Duflo, Banerjee, and Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Because the ATE is a population summary, anti-poverty experiments often seek to unpack the effect variation around the ATE by conditioning (CATE) on tabular variables such as age and ethnicity that were measured during the RCT data collection. Although such variables are key to unpacking CATE, using only such variables may fail to capture historical, geographical, or neighborhood-specific contributors to effect variation, as tabular RCT data are often only observed near the time of the experiment. In global poverty research, when the location of the experiment units is approximately known, satellite imagery can provide a window into such factors important for understanding heterogeneity. However, there is no method that specifically enables applied researchers to analyze CATE from images. In this paper, using a deep probabilistic modeling framework, we develop such a method that estimates latent clusters of images by identifying images with similar treatment effects distributions. Our interpretable image CATE model also includes a sensitivity factor that quantifies the importance of image segments contributing to the effect cluster prediction. We compare the proposed methods against alternatives in simulation; also, we show how the model works in an actual RCT, estimating the effects of an anti-poverty intervention in northern Uganda and obtaining a posterior predictive distribution over effects for the rest of the country where no experimental data was collected. We make all models available in open-source software.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

This monograph presents the core principles that have guided the development of diffusion models, tracing their origins and showing how diverse formulations arise from shared mathematical ideas. Diffusion modeling starts by defining a forward process that gradually corrupts data into noise, linking the data distribution to a simple prior through a continuum of intermediate distributions. The goal is to learn a reverse process that transforms noise back into data while recovering the same intermediates. We describe three complementary views. The variational view, inspired by variational autoencoders, sees diffusion as learning to remove noise step by step. The score-based view, rooted in energy-based modeling, learns the gradient of the evolving data distribution, indicating how to nudge samples toward more likely regions. The flow-based view, related to normalizing flows, treats generation as following a smooth path that moves samples from noise to data under a learned velocity field. These perspectives share a common backbone: a time-dependent velocity field whose flow transports a simple prior to the data. Sampling then amounts to solving a differential equation that evolves noise into data along a continuous trajectory. On this foundation, the monograph discusses guidance for controllable generation, efficient numerical solvers, and diffusion-motivated flow-map models that learn direct mappings between arbitrary times. It provides a conceptual and mathematically grounded understanding of diffusion models for readers with basic deep-learning knowledge.

To the naked eye, stock prices are considered chaotic, dynamic, and unpredictable. Indeed, it is one of the most difficult forecasting tasks that hundreds of millions of retail traders and professional traders around the world try to do every second even before the market opens. With recent advances in the development of machine learning and the amount of data the market generated over years, applying machine learning techniques such as deep learning neural networks is unavoidable. In this work, we modeled the task as a multivariate forecasting problem, instead of a naive autoregression problem. The multivariate analysis is done using the attention mechanism via applying a mutated version of the Transformer, "Stockformer", which we created.

Language models and specialized table embedding models have recently demonstrated strong performance on many tasks over tabular data. Researchers and practitioners are keen to leverage these models in many new application contexts; but limited understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these models, and the table representations they generate, makes the process of finding a suitable model for a given task reliant on trial and error. There is an urgent need to gain a comprehensive understanding of these models to minimize inefficiency and failures in downstream usage. To address this need, we propose Observatory, a formal framework to systematically analyze embedding representations of relational tables. Motivated both by invariants of the relational data model and by statistical considerations regarding data distributions, we define eight primitive properties, and corresponding measures to quantitatively characterize table embeddings for these properties. Based on these properties, we define an extensible framework to evaluate language and table embedding models. We collect and synthesize a suite of datasets and use Observatory to analyze nine such models. Our analysis provides insights into the strengths and weaknesses of learned representations over tables. We find, for example, that some models are sensitive to table structure such as column order, that functional dependencies are rarely reflected in embeddings, and that specialized table embedding models have relatively lower sample fidelity. Such insights help researchers and practitioners better anticipate model behaviors and select appropriate models for their downstream tasks, while guiding researchers in the development of new models.

We describe nonparametric deconvolution models (NDMs), a family of Bayesian nonparametric models for collections of data in which each observation is the average over the features from heterogeneous particles. For example, these types of data are found in elections, where we observe precinct-level vote tallies (observations) of individual citizens' votes (particles) across each of the candidates or ballot measures (features), where each voter is part of a specific voter cohort or demographic (factor). Like the hierarchical Dirichlet process, NDMs rely on two tiers of Dirichlet processes to explain the data with an unknown number of latent factors; each observation is modeled as a weighted average of these latent factors. Unlike existing models, NDMs recover how factor distributions vary locally for each observation. This uniquely allows NDMs both to deconvolve each observation into its constituent factors, and also to describe how the factor distributions specific to each observation vary across observations and deviate from the corresponding global factors. We present variational inference techniques for this family of models and study its performance on simulated data and voting data from California. We show that including local factors improves estimates of global factors and provides a novel scaffold for exploring data.

Recent work proposed state-space models (SSMs) as an efficient alternative to transformer-based LLMs. Can these models be pruned to further reduce their computation costs? We adapt several pruning methods to the SSM structure, and apply them to four SSM-based LLMs across multiple tasks. We find that such models are quite robust to some pruning methods (e.g. WANDA), while using other methods lead to fast performance degradation.

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

We propose a novel nonlinear bidirectionally coupled heterogeneous chain network whose dynamics evolve in discrete time. The backbone of the model is a pair of popular map-based neuron models, the Chialvo and the Rulkov maps. This model is assumed to proximate the intricate dynamical properties of neurons in the widely complex nervous system. The model is first realized via various nonlinear analysis techniques: fixed point analysis, phase portraits, Jacobian matrix, and bifurcation diagrams. We observe the coexistence of chaotic and period-4 attractors. Various codimension-1 and -2 patterns for example saddle-node, period-doubling, Neimark-Sacker, double Neimark-Sacker, flip- and fold-Neimark Sacker, and 1:1 and 1:2 resonance are also explored. Furthermore, the study employs two synchronization measures to quantify how the oscillators in the network behave in tandem with each other over a long number of iterations. Finally, a time series analysis of the model is performed to investigate its complexity in terms of sample entropy.

Tabular data is a common form of organizing data. Multiple models are available to generate synthetic tabular datasets where observations are independent, but few have the ability to produce relational datasets. Modeling relational data is challenging as it requires modeling both a "parent" table and its relationships across tables. We introduce REaLTabFormer (Realistic Relational and Tabular Transformer), a tabular and relational synthetic data generation model. It first creates a parent table using an autoregressive GPT-2 model, then generates the relational dataset conditioned on the parent table using a sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) model. We implement target masking to prevent data copying and propose the Q_{delta} statistic and statistical bootstrapping to detect overfitting. Experiments using real-world datasets show that REaLTabFormer captures the relational structure better than a baseline model. REaLTabFormer also achieves state-of-the-art results on prediction tasks, "out-of-the-box", for large non-relational datasets without needing fine-tuning.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

Objective: To transform heterogeneous clinical data from electronic health records into clinically meaningful constructed features using data driven method that rely, in part, on temporal relations among data. Materials and Methods: The clinically meaningful representations of medical concepts and patients are the key for health analytic applications. Most of existing approaches directly construct features mapped to raw data (e.g., ICD or CPT codes), or utilize some ontology mapping such as SNOMED codes. However, none of the existing approaches leverage EHR data directly for learning such concept representation. We propose a new way to represent heterogeneous medical concepts (e.g., diagnoses, medications and procedures) based on co-occurrence patterns in longitudinal electronic health records. The intuition behind the method is to map medical concepts that are co-occuring closely in time to similar concept vectors so that their distance will be small. We also derive a simple method to construct patient vectors from the related medical concept vectors. Results: For qualitative evaluation, we study similar medical concepts across diagnosis, medication and procedure. In quantitative evaluation, our proposed representation significantly improves the predictive modeling performance for onset of heart failure (HF), where classification methods (e.g. logistic regression, neural network, support vector machine and K-nearest neighbors) achieve up to 23% improvement in area under the ROC curve (AUC) using this proposed representation. Conclusion: We proposed an effective method for patient and medical concept representation learning. The resulting representation can map relevant concepts together and also improves predictive modeling performance.

In this study, we propose Feature-aligned N-BEATS as a domain generalization model for univariate time series forecasting problems. The proposed model is an extension of the doubly residual stacking architecture of N-BEATS (Oreshkin et al. [34]) into a representation learning framework. The model is a new structure that involves marginal feature probability measures (i.e., pushforward measures of multiple source domains) induced by the intricate composition of residual operators of N-BEATS in each stack and aligns them stack-wise via an entropic regularized Wasserstein distance referred to as the Sinkhorn divergence (Genevay et al. [14]). The loss function consists of a typical forecasting loss for multiple source domains and an alignment loss calculated with the Sinkhorn divergence, which allows the model to learn invariant features stack-wise across multiple source data sequences while retaining N-BEATS's interpretable design. We conduct a comprehensive experimental evaluation of the proposed approach and the results demonstrate the model's forecasting and generalization capabilities in comparison with methods based on the original N-BEATS.

The cascade of 2D geometric transformations were exploited to model relations between entities in a knowledge graph (KG), leading to an effective KG embedding (KGE) model, CompoundE. Furthermore, the rotation in the 3D space was proposed as a new KGE model, Rotate3D, by leveraging its non-commutative property. Inspired by CompoundE and Rotate3D, we leverage 3D compound geometric transformations, including translation, rotation, scaling, reflection, and shear and propose a family of KGE models, named CompoundE3D, in this work. CompoundE3D allows multiple design variants to match rich underlying characteristics of a KG. Since each variant has its own advantages on a subset of relations, an ensemble of multiple variants can yield superior performance. The effectiveness and flexibility of CompoundE3D are experimentally verified on four popular link prediction datasets.

Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods to address it. This paper addresses situations when data evolves gradually. We introduce a time-varying propensity score that can detect gradual shifts in the distribution of data which allows us to selectively sample past data to update the model -- not just similar data from the past like that of a standard propensity score but also data that evolved in a similar fashion in the past. The time-varying propensity score is quite general: we demonstrate different ways of implementing it and evaluate it on a variety of problems ranging from supervised learning (e.g., image classification problems) where data undergoes a sequence of gradual shifts, to reinforcement learning tasks (e.g., robotic manipulation and continuous control) where data shifts as the policy or the task changes.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a breadth of decisions in modern society. Using several classic examples from fisheries management, I demonstrate that selecting the model or models that produce the most accurate and precise forecast (measured by statistical scores) can sometimes lead to worse outcomes (measured by real-world objectives). This can create a forecast trap, in which the outcomes such as fish biomass or economic yield decline while the manager becomes increasingly convinced that these actions are consistent with the best models and data available. The forecast trap is not unique to this example, but a fundamental consequence of non-uniqueness of models. Existing practices promoting a broader set of models are the best way to avoid the trap.

We introduce a framework for automatically defining and learning deep generative models with problem-specific structure. We tackle problem domains that are more traditionally solved by algorithms such as sorting, constraint satisfaction for Sudoku, and matrix factorization. Concretely, we train diffusion models with an architecture tailored to the problem specification. This problem specification should contain a graphical model describing relationships between variables, and often benefits from explicit representation of subcomputations. Permutation invariances can also be exploited. Across a diverse set of experiments we improve the scaling relationship between problem dimension and our model's performance, in terms of both training time and final accuracy. Our code can be found at https://github.com/plai-group/gsdm.

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important area of machine learning. In this work we developed a novel method that employs Transformer-based machine learning models to forecast time series data. This approach works by leveraging self-attention mechanisms to learn complex patterns and dynamics from time series data. Moreover, it is a generic framework and can be applied to univariate and multivariate time series data, as well as time series embeddings. Using influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting as a case study, we show that the forecasting results produced by our approach are favorably comparable to the state-of-the-art.

The emergence of models like GPTs, Claude, LLaMA, and Qwen has reshaped AI applications, presenting vast new opportunities across industries. Yet, the integration of tabular data remains notably underdeveloped, despite its foundational role in numerous real-world domains. This gap is critical for three main reasons. First, database or data warehouse data integration is essential for advanced applications; second, the vast and largely untapped resource of tabular data offers immense potential for analysis; and third, the business intelligence domain specifically demands adaptable, precise solutions that many current LLMs may struggle to provide. In response, we introduce TableGPT2, a model rigorously pre-trained and fine-tuned with over 593.8K tables and 2.36M high-quality query-table-output tuples, a scale of table-related data unprecedented in prior research. This extensive training enables TableGPT2 to excel in table-centric tasks while maintaining strong general language and coding abilities. One of TableGPT2's key innovations is its novel table encoder, specifically designed to capture schema-level and cell-level information. This encoder strengthens the model's ability to handle ambiguous queries, missing column names, and irregular tables commonly encountered in real-world applications. Similar to visual language models, this pioneering approach integrates with the decoder to form a robust large multimodal model. We believe the results are compelling: over 23 benchmarking metrics, TableGPT2 achieves an average performance improvement of 35.20% in the 7B model and 49.32% in the 72B model over prior benchmark-neutral LLMs, with robust general-purpose capabilities intact.

Foundation models have emerged as critical components in a variety of artificial intelligence applications, and showcase significant success in natural language processing and several other domains. Meanwhile, the field of graph machine learning is witnessing a paradigm transition from shallow methods to more sophisticated deep learning approaches. The capabilities of foundation models to generalize and adapt motivate graph machine learning researchers to discuss the potential of developing a new graph learning paradigm. This paradigm envisions models that are pre-trained on extensive graph data and can be adapted for various graph tasks. Despite this burgeoning interest, there is a noticeable lack of clear definitions and systematic analyses pertaining to this new domain. To this end, this article introduces the concept of Graph Foundation Models (GFMs), and offers an exhaustive explanation of their key characteristics and underlying technologies. We proceed to classify the existing work related to GFMs into three distinct categories, based on their dependence on graph neural networks and large language models. In addition to providing a thorough review of the current state of GFMs, this article also outlooks potential avenues for future research in this rapidly evolving domain.

We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric creditworthiness effects, while idiosyncratic risk remains Gaussian. Under a non-uniform exposure setting, we establish convergence in quadratic mean of the portfolio loss to a limit reflecting the distinct characteristics of the two loan segments. Numerical results confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate how value-at-risk is affected by portfolio granularity, default probabilities, factor loadings, and skewness. Our model accommodates differential sensitivity to systematic shocks and offers a tractable basis for further developments in credit risk modeling, including granularity adjustments, CDO pricing, and empirical analysis of green loan portfolios.

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning and statistics due to the presence of non-uniform intervals between observations. However, there has been significant progress within the machine learning community over the last decade on developing specialized models and architectures for learning from irregularly sampled univariate and multivariate time series data. In this survey, we first describe several axes along which approaches to learning from irregularly sampled time series differ including what data representations they are based on, what modeling primitives they leverage to deal with the fundamental problem of irregular sampling, and what inference tasks they are designed to perform. We then survey the recent literature organized primarily along the axis of modeling primitives. We describe approaches based on temporal discretization, interpolation, recurrence, attention and structural invariance. We discuss similarities and differences between approaches and highlight primary strengths and weaknesses.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

A major challenge in deploying world models is the trade-off between size and performance. Large world models can capture rich physical dynamics but require massive computing resources, making them impractical for edge devices. Small world models are easier to deploy but often struggle to learn accurate physics, leading to poor predictions. We propose the Physics-Informed BEV World Model (PIWM), a compact model designed to efficiently capture physical interactions in bird's-eye-view (BEV) representations. PIWM uses Soft Mask during training to improve dynamic object modeling and future prediction. We also introduce a simple yet effective technique, Warm Start, for inference to enhance prediction quality with a zero-shot model. Experiments show that at the same parameter scale (400M), PIWM surpasses the baseline by 60.6% in weighted overall score. Moreover, even when compared with the largest baseline model (400M), the smallest PIWM (130M Soft Mask) achieves a 7.4% higher weighted overall score with a 28% faster inference speed.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

This paper describes a novel nonparametric model for modeling diffusion MRI signals in q-space. In q-space, diffusion MRI signal is measured for a sequence of magnetic strengths (b-values) and magnetic gradient directions (b-vectors). We propose a Poly-RBF model, which employs a bidirectional framework with polynomial bases to model the signal along the b-value direction and Gaussian radial bases across the b-vectors. The model can accommodate sparse data on b-values and moderately dense data on b-vectors. The utility of Poly-RBF is inspected for two applications: 1) prediction of the dMRI signal, and 2) harmonization of dMRI data collected under different acquisition protocols with different scanners. Our results indicate that the proposed Poly-RBF model can more accurately predict the unmeasured diffusion signal than its competitors such as the Gaussian process model in {\tt Eddy} of FSL. Applying it to harmonizing the diffusion signal can significantly improve the reproducibility of derived white matter microstructure measures.

Consistency models (CMs) are a powerful class of diffusion-based generative models optimized for fast sampling. Most existing CMs are trained using discretized timesteps, which introduce additional hyperparameters and are prone to discretization errors. While continuous-time formulations can mitigate these issues, their success has been limited by training instability. To address this, we propose a simplified theoretical framework that unifies previous parameterizations of diffusion models and CMs, identifying the root causes of instability. Based on this analysis, we introduce key improvements in diffusion process parameterization, network architecture, and training objectives. These changes enable us to train continuous-time CMs at an unprecedented scale, reaching 1.5B parameters on ImageNet 512x512. Our proposed training algorithm, using only two sampling steps, achieves FID scores of 2.06 on CIFAR-10, 1.48 on ImageNet 64x64, and 1.88 on ImageNet 512x512, narrowing the gap in FID scores with the best existing diffusion models to within 10%.

Foundation models, particularly those that incorporate Transformer architectures, have demonstrated exceptional performance in domains such as natural language processing and image processing. Adapting these models to structured data, like tables, however, introduces significant challenges. These difficulties are even more pronounced when addressing multi-table data linked via foreign key, which is prevalent in the enterprise realm and crucial for empowering business use cases. Despite its substantial impact, research focusing on such linked business tables within enterprise settings remains a significantly important yet underexplored domain. To address this, we introduce a curated dataset sourced from an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system, featuring extensive linked tables. This dataset is specifically designed to support research endeavors in table representation learning. By providing access to authentic enterprise data, our goal is to potentially enhance the effectiveness and applicability of models for real-world business contexts.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

The field of visual computing is rapidly advancing due to the emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI), which unlocks unprecedented capabilities for the generation, editing, and reconstruction of images, videos, and 3D scenes. In these domains, diffusion models are the generative AI architecture of choice. Within the last year alone, the literature on diffusion-based tools and applications has seen exponential growth and relevant papers are published across the computer graphics, computer vision, and AI communities with new works appearing daily on arXiv. This rapid growth of the field makes it difficult to keep up with all recent developments. The goal of this state-of-the-art report (STAR) is to introduce the basic mathematical concepts of diffusion models, implementation details and design choices of the popular Stable Diffusion model, as well as overview important aspects of these generative AI tools, including personalization, conditioning, inversion, among others. Moreover, we give a comprehensive overview of the rapidly growing literature on diffusion-based generation and editing, categorized by the type of generated medium, including 2D images, videos, 3D objects, locomotion, and 4D scenes. Finally, we discuss available datasets, metrics, open challenges, and social implications. This STAR provides an intuitive starting point to explore this exciting topic for researchers, artists, and practitioners alike.

Debates about whether development projects improve living conditions persist, partly because observational estimates can be biased by incomplete adjustment and because reliable outcome data are scarce at the neighborhood level. We address both issues in a continent-scale, sector-specific evaluation of Chinese and World Bank projects across 9,899 neighborhoods in 36 African countries (2002 to 2013), representative of 88% of the population. First, we use a recent dataset that measures living conditions with a machine-learned wealth index derived from contemporaneous satellite imagery, yielding a consistent panel of 6.7 km square mosaics. Second, to strengthen identification, we proxy officials' map-based placement criteria using pre-treatment daytime satellite images and fuse these with rich tabular covariates to estimate funder- and sector-specific ATEs via inverse-probability weighting. Incorporating imagery systematically shrinks effects relative to tabular-only models, indicating prior work likely overstated benefits. On average, both donors raise wealth, with larger gains for China; sector extremes in our sample include Trade and Tourism for the World Bank (+6.27 IWI points), and Emergency Response for China (+14.32). Assignment-mechanism analyses show World Bank placement is generally more predictable from imagery alone, as well as from tabular covariates. This suggests that Chinese project placements are more driven by non-visible, political, or event-driven factors than World Bank placements. To probe residual concerns about selection on observables, we also estimate within-neighborhood (unit) fixed-effects models at a spatial resolution about 450 times finer than prior fixed effects analyses, leveraging the computer-vision-imputed IWI panels; these deliver smaller but directionally consistent effects.

The rapid development of AI systems has been greatly influenced by the emergence of foundation models. A common approach for targeted problems involves fine-tuning these pre-trained foundation models for specific target tasks, resulting in a rapid spread of models fine-tuned across a diverse array of tasks. This work focuses on the problem of merging multiple fine-tunings of the same foundation model derived from a spectrum of auxiliary tasks. We introduce a new simple method, Model Breadcrumbs, which consists of a sparsely defined set of weights that carve out a trajectory within the weight space of a pre-trained model, enhancing task performance when traversed. These breadcrumbs are constructed by subtracting the weights from a pre-trained model before and after fine-tuning, followed by a sparsification process that eliminates weight outliers and negligible perturbations. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of Model Breadcrumbs to simultaneously improve performance across multiple tasks. This contribution aligns with the evolving paradigm of updatable machine learning, reminiscent of the collaborative principles underlying open-source software development, fostering a community-driven effort to reliably update machine learning models. Our method is shown to be more efficient and unlike previous proposals does not require hyperparameter tuning for each new task added. Through extensive experimentation involving various models, tasks, and modalities we establish that integrating Model Breadcrumbs offers a simple, efficient, and highly effective approach for constructing multi-task models and facilitating updates to foundation models.

The ubiquity of large-scale Pre-Trained Models (PTMs) is on the rise, sparking interest in model hubs, and dedicated platforms for hosting PTMs. Despite this trend, a comprehensive exploration of the challenges that users encounter and how the community leverages PTMs remains lacking. To address this gap, we conducted an extensive mixed-methods empirical study by focusing on discussion forums and the model hub of HuggingFace, the largest public model hub. Based on our qualitative analysis, we present a taxonomy of the challenges and benefits associated with PTM reuse within this community. We then conduct a quantitative study to track model-type trends and model documentation evolution over time. Our findings highlight prevalent challenges such as limited guidance for beginner users, struggles with model output comprehensibility in training or inference, and a lack of model understanding. We also identified interesting trends among models where some models maintain high upload rates despite a decline in topics related to them. Additionally, we found that despite the introduction of model documentation tools, its quantity has not increased over time, leading to difficulties in model comprehension and selection among users. Our study sheds light on new challenges in reusing PTMs that were not reported before and we provide recommendations for various stakeholders involved in PTM reuse.

Reward models are critical in techniques like Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) and Inference Scaling Laws, where they guide language model alignment and select optimal responses. Despite their importance, existing reward model benchmarks often evaluate models by asking them to distinguish between responses generated by models of varying power. However, this approach fails to assess reward models on subtle but critical content changes and variations in style, resulting in a low correlation with policy model performance. To this end, we introduce RM-Bench, a novel benchmark designed to evaluate reward models based on their sensitivity to subtle content differences and resistance to style biases. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RM-Bench strongly correlates with policy model performance, making it a reliable reference for selecting reward models to align language models effectively. We evaluate nearly 40 reward models on RM-Bench. Our results reveal that even state-of-the-art models achieve an average performance of only 46.6%, which falls short of random-level accuracy (50%) when faced with style bias interference. These findings highlight the significant room for improvement in current reward models. Related code and data are available at https://github.com/THU-KEG/RM-Bench.

We propose a deep learning methodology for multivariate regression that is based on pattern recognition that triggers fast learning over sensor data. We used a conversion of sensors-to-image which enables us to take advantage of Computer Vision architectures and training processes. In addition to this data preparation methodology, we explore the use of state-of-the-art architectures to generate regression outputs to predict agricultural crop continuous yield information. Finally, we compare with some of the top models reported in MLCAS2021. We found that using a straightforward training process, we were able to accomplish an MAE of 4.394, RMSE of 5.945, and R^2 of 0.861.

Various visual foundation models have distinct strengths and weaknesses, both of which can be improved through heterogeneous multi-teacher knowledge distillation without labels, termed "agglomerative models." We build upon this body of work by studying the effect of the teachers' activation statistics, particularly the impact of the loss function on the resulting student model quality. We explore a standard toolkit of statistical normalization techniques to better align the different distributions and assess their effects. Further, we examine the impact on downstream teacher-matching metrics, which motivates the use of Hadamard matrices. With these matrices, we demonstrate useful properties, showing how they can be used for isotropic standardization, where each dimension of a multivariate distribution is standardized using the same scale. We call this technique "PHI Standardization" (PHI-S) and empirically demonstrate that it produces the best student model across the suite of methods studied.

Data-driven techniques have a large potential to transform and accelerate the chemical sciences. However, chemical sciences also pose the unique challenge of very diverse, small, fuzzy datasets that are difficult to leverage in conventional machine learning approaches completely. A new class of models, general-purpose models (GPMs) such as large language models, have shown the ability to solve tasks they have not been directly trained on, and to flexibly operate with low amounts of data in different formats. In this review, we discuss fundamental building principles of GPMs and review recent applications of those models in the chemical sciences across the entire scientific process. While many of these applications are still in the prototype phase, we expect that the increasing interest in GPMs will make many of them mature in the coming years.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is a popular strategy for aligning large language models (LLMs) with desired behaviors. Reward modeling is a crucial step in RLHF. However, collecting paired preference data for training reward models is often costly and time-consuming, especially for domain-specific preferences requiring expert annotation. To address this challenge, we propose the Domain knowledge merged Reward Model (DogeRM), a novel framework that integrates domain-specific knowledge into a general reward model by model merging. The experiments demonstrate that DogeRM enhances performance across different benchmarks and provide a detailed analysis showcasing the effects of model merging, showing the great potential of facilitating model alignment.

Interpreting time series models is uniquely challenging because it requires identifying both the location of time series signals that drive model predictions and their matching to an interpretable temporal pattern. While explainers from other modalities can be applied to time series, their inductive biases do not transfer well to the inherently challenging interpretation of time series. We present TimeX, a time series consistency model for training explainers. TimeX trains an interpretable surrogate to mimic the behavior of a pretrained time series model. It addresses the issue of model faithfulness by introducing model behavior consistency, a novel formulation that preserves relations in the latent space induced by the pretrained model with relations in the latent space induced by TimeX. TimeX provides discrete attribution maps and, unlike existing interpretability methods, it learns a latent space of explanations that can be used in various ways, such as to provide landmarks to visually aggregate similar explanations and easily recognize temporal patterns. We evaluate TimeX on eight synthetic and real-world datasets and compare its performance against state-of-the-art interpretability methods. We also conduct case studies using physiological time series. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate that TimeX achieves the highest or second-highest performance in every metric compared to baselines across all datasets. Through case studies, we show that the novel components of TimeX show potential for training faithful, interpretable models that capture the behavior of pretrained time series models.