Daily Papers

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Human forecasting accuracy in practice relies on the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, in which predictions about future events are significantly improved by aggregating across a crowd of individual forecasters. Past work on the forecasting ability of large language models (LLMs) suggests that frontier LLMs, as individual forecasters, underperform compared to the gold standard of a human crowd forecasting tournament aggregate. In Study 1, we expand this research by using an LLM ensemble approach consisting of a crowd of twelve LLMs. We compare the aggregated LLM predictions on 31 binary questions to that of a crowd of 925 human forecasters from a three-month forecasting tournament. Our main analysis shows that the LLM crowd outperforms a simple no-information benchmark and is statistically equivalent to the human crowd. We also observe an acquiescence effect, with mean model predictions being significantly above 50%, despite an almost even split of positive and negative resolutions. Moreover, in Study 2, we test whether LLM predictions (of GPT-4 and Claude 2) can be improved by drawing on human cognitive output. We find that both models' forecasting accuracy benefits from exposure to the median human prediction as information, improving accuracy by between 17% and 28%: though this leads to less accurate predictions than simply averaging human and machine forecasts. Our results suggest that LLMs can achieve forecasting accuracy rivaling that of human crowd forecasting tournaments: via the simple, practically applicable method of forecast aggregation. This replicates the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect for LLMs, and opens up their use for a variety applications throughout society.

Large language models (LLMs) that produce human-like responses have begun to revolutionize research practices in the social sciences. We develop a novel methodological framework that fine-tunes LLMs with repeated cross-sectional surveys to incorporate the meaning of survey questions, individual beliefs, and temporal contexts for opinion prediction. We introduce two new emerging applications of the AI-augmented survey: retrodiction (i.e., predict year-level missing responses) and unasked opinion prediction (i.e., predict entirely missing responses). Among 3,110 binarized opinions from 68,846 Americans in the General Social Survey from 1972 to 2021, our models based on Alpaca-7b excel in retrodiction (AUC = 0.86 for personal opinion prediction, rho = 0.98 for public opinion prediction). These remarkable prediction capabilities allow us to fill in missing trends with high confidence and pinpoint when public attitudes changed, such as the rising support for same-sex marriage. On the other hand, our fine-tuned Alpaca-7b models show modest success in unasked opinion prediction (AUC = 0.73, rho = 0.67). We discuss practical constraints and ethical concerns regarding individual autonomy and privacy when using LLMs for opinion prediction. Our study demonstrates that LLMs and surveys can mutually enhance each other's capabilities: LLMs can broaden survey potential, while surveys can improve the alignment of LLMs.

The confluence of the advancement of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and the maturity of Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) communication has enabled the capability of cooperative connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). Building on top of cooperative perception, this paper explores the feasibility and effectiveness of cooperative motion prediction. Our method, CMP, takes LiDAR signals as model input to enhance tracking and prediction capabilities. Unlike previous work that focuses separately on either cooperative perception or motion prediction, our framework, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to address the unified problem where CAVs share information in both perception and prediction modules. Incorporated into our design is the unique capability to tolerate realistic V2X transmission delays, while dealing with bulky perception representations. We also propose a prediction aggregation module, which unifies the predictions obtained by different CAVs and generates the final prediction. Through extensive experiments and ablation studies on the OPV2V and V2V4Real datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in cooperative perception, tracking, and motion prediction. In particular, CMP reduces the average prediction error by 12.3% compared with the strongest baseline. Our work marks a significant step forward in the cooperative capabilities of CAVs, showcasing enhanced performance in complex scenarios. More details can be found on the project website: https://cmp-cooperative-prediction.github.io.

Traditional automatic speech recognition (ASR) models output lower-cased words without punctuation marks, which reduces readability and necessitates a subsequent text processing model to convert ASR transcripts into a proper format. Simultaneously, the development of end-to-end ASR models capable of predicting punctuation and capitalization presents several challenges, primarily due to limited data availability and shortcomings in the existing evaluation methods, such as inadequate assessment of punctuation prediction. In this paper, we introduce a LibriSpeech-PC benchmark designed to assess the punctuation and capitalization prediction capabilities of end-to-end ASR models. The benchmark includes a LibriSpeech-PC dataset with restored punctuation and capitalization, a novel evaluation metric called Punctuation Error Rate (PER) that focuses on punctuation marks, and initial baseline models. All code, data, and models are publicly available.

In this paper, we propose a unified framework that leverages a single pretrained LLM for Motion-related Multimodal Generation, referred to as MoMug. MoMug integrates diffusion-based continuous motion generation with the model's inherent autoregressive discrete text prediction capabilities by fine-tuning a pretrained LLM. This enables seamless switching between continuous motion output and discrete text token prediction within a single model architecture, effectively combining the strengths of both diffusion- and LLM-based approaches. Experimental results show that, compared to the most recent LLM-based baseline, MoMug improves FID by 38% and mean accuracy across seven metrics by 16.61% on the text-to-motion task. Additionally, it improves mean accuracy across eight metrics by 8.44% on the text-to-motion task. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach to integrate diffusion- and LLM-based generation within a single model for motion-related multimodal tasks while maintaining low training costs. This establishes a foundation for future advancements in motion-related generation, paving the way for high-quality yet cost-efficient motion synthesis.

Clinical diagnosis prediction models, when provided with a patient's medical history, aim to detect potential diseases early, facilitating timely intervention and improving prognostic outcomes. However, the inherent scarcity of patient data and large disease candidate space often pose challenges in developing satisfactory models for this intricate task. The exploration of leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) for encapsulating clinical decision processes has been limited. We introduce MERA, a clinical diagnosis prediction model that bridges pertaining natural language knowledge with medical practice. We apply hierarchical contrastive learning on a disease candidate ranking list to alleviate the large decision space issue. With concept memorization through fine-tuning, we bridge the natural language clinical knowledge with medical codes. Experimental results on MIMIC-III and IV datasets show that MERA achieves the state-of-the-art diagnosis prediction performance and dramatically elevates the diagnosis prediction capabilities of generative LMs.

Deep learning (DL)-based code completion tools have transformed software development by enabling advanced code generation. These tools leverage models trained on vast amounts of code from numerous repositories, capturing general coding patterns. However, the impact of fine-tuning these models for specific organizations or developers to boost their performance on such subjects remains unexplored. In this work, we fill this gap by presenting solid empirical evidence answering this question. More specifically, we consider 136 developers from two organizations (Apache and Spring), two model architectures (T5 and Code Llama), and three model sizes (60M, 750M, and 7B trainable parameters). T5 models (60M, 750M) were pre-trained and fine-tuned on over 2,000 open-source projects, excluding the subject organizations' data, and compared against versions fine-tuned on organization- and developer-specific datasets. For the Code Llama model (7B), we compared the performance of the already pre-trained model publicly available online with the same model fine-tuned via parameter-efficient fine-tuning on organization- and developer-specific datasets. Our results show that there is a boost in prediction capabilities provided by both an organization-specific and a developer-specific additional fine-tuning, with the former being particularly performant. Such a finding generalizes across (i) the two subject organizations (i.e., Apache and Spring) and (ii) models of completely different magnitude (from 60M to 7B trainable parameters). Finally, we show that DL models fine-tuned on an organization-specific dataset achieve the same completion performance of pre-trained code models used out of the box and being sim10times larger, with consequent savings in terms of deployment and inference cost (e.g., smaller GPUs needed).

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated impressive action sequence prediction capabilities but often struggle with dynamic, long-horizon tasks such as real-time strategic games. In a game such as StarCraftII (SC2), agents need to manage resource constraints and adapt to evolving battlefield situations in a partially observable environment. This often overwhelms exisiting LLM-based approaches. To address these challenges, we propose a hierarchical multi-agent framework that employs specialized imitation learning agents under a meta-controller called Strategic Planner (SP). By expert demonstrations, each specialized agent learns a distinctive strategy, such as aerial support or defensive maneuvers, and produces coherent, structured multistep action sequences. The SP then orchestrates these proposals into a single, environmentally adaptive plan that ensures local decisions aligning with long-term strategies. We call this HIMA (Hierarchical Imitation Multi-Agent). We also present TEXTSCII-ALL, a comprehensive SC2 testbed that encompasses all race match combinations in SC2. Our empirical results show that HIMA outperforms state of the arts in strategic clarity, adaptability, and computational efficiency, underscoring the potential of combining specialized imitation modules with meta-level orchestration to develop more robust, general-purpose AI agents.

Although there are a couple of open-source language processing pipelines available for Hungarian, none of them satisfies the requirements of today's NLP applications. A language processing pipeline should consist of close to state-of-the-art lemmatization, morphosyntactic analysis, entity recognition and word embeddings. Industrial text processing applications have to satisfy non-functional software quality requirements, what is more, frameworks supporting multiple languages are more and more favored. This paper introduces HuSpaCy, an industry-ready Hungarian language processing toolkit. The presented tool provides components for the most important basic linguistic analysis tasks. It is open-source and is available under a permissive license. Our system is built upon spaCy's NLP components resulting in an easily usable, fast yet accurate application. Experiments confirm that HuSpaCy has high accuracy while maintaining resource-efficient prediction capabilities.

Low-cost, vision-centric 3D perception systems for autonomous driving have made significant progress in recent years, narrowing the gap to expensive LiDAR-based methods. The primary challenge in becoming a fully reliable alternative lies in robust depth prediction capabilities, as camera-based systems struggle with long detection ranges and adverse lighting and weather conditions. In this work, we introduce HyDRa, a novel camera-radar fusion architecture for diverse 3D perception tasks. Building upon the principles of dense BEV (Bird's Eye View)-based architectures, HyDRa introduces a hybrid fusion approach to combine the strengths of complementary camera and radar features in two distinct representation spaces. Our Height Association Transformer module leverages radar features already in the perspective view to produce more robust and accurate depth predictions. In the BEV, we refine the initial sparse representation by a Radar-weighted Depth Consistency. HyDRa achieves a new state-of-the-art for camera-radar fusion of 64.2 NDS (+1.8) and 58.4 AMOTA (+1.5) on the public nuScenes dataset. Moreover, our new semantically rich and spatially accurate BEV features can be directly converted into a powerful occupancy representation, beating all previous camera-based methods on the Occ3D benchmark by an impressive 3.7 mIoU. Code and models are available at https://github.com/phi-wol/hydra.

Recent advances in foundational Vision Language Models (VLMs) have reshaped the evaluation paradigm in computer vision tasks. These foundational models, especially CLIP, have accelerated research in open-vocabulary computer vision tasks, including Open-Vocabulary Semantic Segmentation (OVSS). Although the initial results are promising, the dense prediction capabilities of VLMs still require further improvement. In this study, we enhance the semantic segmentation performance of CLIP by introducing new modules and modifications: 1) architectural changes in the last layer of ViT and the incorporation of attention maps from the middle layers with the last layer, 2) Image Engineering: applying data augmentations to enrich input image representations, and 3) using Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate definitions and synonyms for each class name to leverage CLIP's open-vocabulary capabilities. Our training-free method, ITACLIP, outperforms current state-of-the-art approaches on segmentation benchmarks such as COCO-Stuff, COCO-Object, Pascal Context, and Pascal VOC. Our code is available at https://github.com/m-arda-aydn/ITACLIP.

As large language models (LLMs) advance, their inability to autonomously execute tasks by directly interacting with external tools remains a critical limitation. Traditional methods rely on inputting tool descriptions as context, which is constrained by context length and requires separate, often inefficient, retrieval mechanisms. We introduce ToolGen, a paradigm shift that integrates tool knowledge directly into the LLM's parameters by representing each tool as a unique token. This enables the LLM to generate tool calls and arguments as part of its next token prediction capabilities, seamlessly blending tool invocation with language generation. Our framework allows the LLM to access and utilize a vast amount of tools with no additional retrieval step, significantly enhancing both performance and scalability. Experimental results with over 47,000 tools show that ToolGen not only achieves superior results in both tool retrieval and autonomous task completion but also sets the stage for a new era of AI agents that can adapt to tools across diverse domains. By fundamentally transforming tool retrieval into a generative process, ToolGen paves the way for more versatile, efficient, and autonomous AI systems. ToolGen enables end-to-end tool learning and opens opportunities for integration with other advanced techniques such as chain-of-thought and reinforcement learning, thereby expanding the practical capabilities of LLMs.

In warehouse environments, robots require robust picking capabilities to manage a wide variety of objects. Effective deployment demands minimal hardware, strong generalization to new products, and resilience in diverse settings. Current methods often rely on depth sensors for structural information, which suffer from high costs, complex setups, and technical limitations. Inspired by recent advancements in computer vision, we propose an innovative approach that leverages foundation models to enhance suction grasping using only RGB images. Trained solely on a synthetic dataset, our method generalizes its grasp prediction capabilities to real-world robots and a diverse range of novel objects not included in the training set. Our network achieves an 82.3\% success rate in real-world applications. The project website with code and data will be available at http://optigrasp.github.io.

In this paper, we introduce a framework ARBEx, a novel attentive feature extraction framework driven by Vision Transformer with reliability balancing to cope against poor class distributions, bias, and uncertainty in the facial expression learning (FEL) task. We reinforce several data pre-processing and refinement methods along with a window-based cross-attention ViT to squeeze the best of the data. We also employ learnable anchor points in the embedding space with label distributions and multi-head self-attention mechanism to optimize performance against weak predictions with reliability balancing, which is a strategy that leverages anchor points, attention scores, and confidence values to enhance the resilience of label predictions. To ensure correct label classification and improve the models' discriminative power, we introduce anchor loss, which encourages large margins between anchor points. Additionally, the multi-head self-attention mechanism, which is also trainable, plays an integral role in identifying accurate labels. This approach provides critical elements for improving the reliability of predictions and has a substantial positive effect on final prediction capabilities. Our adaptive model can be integrated with any deep neural network to forestall challenges in various recognition tasks. Our strategy outperforms current state-of-the-art methodologies, according to extensive experiments conducted in a variety of contexts.

Large Language Models (LLMs), with their remarkable task-handling capabilities and innovative outputs, have catalyzed significant advancements across a spectrum of fields. However, their proficiency within specialized domains such as biomolecular studies remains limited. To address this challenge, we introduce Mol-Instructions, a meticulously curated, comprehensive instruction dataset expressly designed for the biomolecular realm. Mol-Instructions is composed of three pivotal components: molecule-oriented instructions, protein-oriented instructions, and biomolecular text instructions, each curated to enhance the understanding and prediction capabilities of LLMs concerning biomolecular features and behaviors. Through extensive instruction tuning experiments on the representative LLM, we underscore the potency of Mol-Instructions to enhance the adaptability and cognitive acuity of large models within the complex sphere of biomolecular studies, thereby promoting advancements in the biomolecular research community. Mol-Instructions is made publicly accessible for future research endeavors and will be subjected to continual updates for enhanced applicability.

Driving world models have gained increasing attention due to their ability to model complex physical dynamics. However, their superb modeling capability is yet to be fully unleashed due to the limited video diversity in current driving datasets. We introduce DrivingDojo, the first dataset tailor-made for training interactive world models with complex driving dynamics. Our dataset features video clips with a complete set of driving maneuvers, diverse multi-agent interplay, and rich open-world driving knowledge, laying a stepping stone for future world model development. We further define an action instruction following (AIF) benchmark for world models and demonstrate the superiority of the proposed dataset for generating action-controlled future predictions.

We describe a new class of learning models called memory networks. Memory networks reason with inference components combined with a long-term memory component; they learn how to use these jointly. The long-term memory can be read and written to, with the goal of using it for prediction. We investigate these models in the context of question answering (QA) where the long-term memory effectively acts as a (dynamic) knowledge base, and the output is a textual response. We evaluate them on a large-scale QA task, and a smaller, but more complex, toy task generated from a simulated world. In the latter, we show the reasoning power of such models by chaining multiple supporting sentences to answer questions that require understanding the intension of verbs.

Recent video generation models can produce smooth and visually appealing clips, but they often struggle to synthesize complex dynamics with a coherent chain of consequences. Accurately modeling visual outcomes and state transitions over time remains a core challenge. In contrast, large language and multimodal models (e.g., GPT-4o) exhibit strong visual state reasoning and future prediction capabilities. To bridge these strengths, we introduce VChain, a novel inference-time chain-of-visual-thought framework that injects visual reasoning signals from multimodal models into video generation. Specifically, VChain contains a dedicated pipeline that leverages large multimodal models to generate a sparse set of critical keyframes as snapshots, which are then used to guide the sparse inference-time tuning of a pre-trained video generator only at these key moments. Our approach is tuning-efficient, introduces minimal overhead and avoids dense supervision. Extensive experiments on complex, multi-step scenarios show that VChain significantly enhances the quality of generated videos.

In recent years, groundbreaking advancements in natural language processing have culminated in the emergence of powerful large language models (LLMs), which have showcased remarkable capabilities across a vast array of domains, including the understanding, generation, and translation of natural language, and even tasks that extend beyond language processing. In this report, we delve into the performance of LLMs within the context of scientific discovery, focusing on GPT-4, the state-of-the-art language model. Our investigation spans a diverse range of scientific areas encompassing drug discovery, biology, computational chemistry (density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD)), materials design, and partial differential equations (PDE). Evaluating GPT-4 on scientific tasks is crucial for uncovering its potential across various research domains, validating its domain-specific expertise, accelerating scientific progress, optimizing resource allocation, guiding future model development, and fostering interdisciplinary research. Our exploration methodology primarily consists of expert-driven case assessments, which offer qualitative insights into the model's comprehension of intricate scientific concepts and relationships, and occasionally benchmark testing, which quantitatively evaluates the model's capacity to solve well-defined domain-specific problems. Our preliminary exploration indicates that GPT-4 exhibits promising potential for a variety of scientific applications, demonstrating its aptitude for handling complex problem-solving and knowledge integration tasks. Broadly speaking, we evaluate GPT-4's knowledge base, scientific understanding, scientific numerical calculation abilities, and various scientific prediction capabilities.

High-Definition Maps (HD maps) are essential for the precise navigation and decision-making of autonomous vehicles, yet their creation and upkeep present significant cost and timeliness challenges. The online construction of HD maps using on-board sensors has emerged as a promising solution; however, these methods can be impeded by incomplete data due to occlusions and inclement weather. This paper proposes the PriorDrive framework to addresses these limitations by harnessing the power of prior maps, significantly enhancing the robustness and accuracy of online HD map construction. Our approach integrates a variety of prior maps, such as OpenStreetMap's Standard Definition Maps (SD maps), outdated HD maps from vendors, and locally constructed maps from historical vehicle data. To effectively encode this prior information into online mapping models, we introduce a Hybrid Prior Representation (HPQuery) that standardizes the representation of diverse map elements. At the core of PriorDrive is the Unified Vector Encoder (UVE), which employs hybrid prior embedding and a dual encoding mechanism to process vector data. Furthermore, we propose a segment-level and point-level pre-training strategy that enables the UVE to learn the prior distribution of vector data, thereby improving the encoder's generalizability and performance. Through extensive testing on the nuScenes, Argoverse 2 and OpenLane-V2, we demonstrate that PriorDrive is highly compatible with various online mapping models and substantially improves map prediction capabilities. The integration of prior maps through the PriorDrive framework offers a robust solution to the challenges of single-perception data, paving the way for more reliable autonomous vehicle navigation.

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in image generation tasks, including image editing and video creation, representing a good understanding of the physical world. On the other line, diffusion models have also shown promise in robotic control tasks by denoising actions, known as diffusion policy. Although the diffusion generative model and diffusion policy exhibit distinct capabilities--image prediction and robotic action, respectively--they technically follow a similar denoising process. In robotic tasks, the ability to predict future images and generate actions is highly correlated since they share the same underlying dynamics of the physical world. Building on this insight, we introduce PAD, a novel visual policy learning framework that unifies image Prediction and robot Action within a joint Denoising process. Specifically, PAD utilizes Diffusion Transformers (DiT) to seamlessly integrate images and robot states, enabling the simultaneous prediction of future images and robot actions. Additionally, PAD supports co-training on both robotic demonstrations and large-scale video datasets and can be easily extended to other robotic modalities, such as depth images. PAD outperforms previous methods, achieving a significant 26.3% relative improvement on the full Metaworld benchmark, by utilizing a single text-conditioned visual policy within a data-efficient imitation learning setting. Furthermore, PAD demonstrates superior generalization to unseen tasks in real-world robot manipulation settings with 28.0% success rate increase compared to the strongest baseline. Project page at https://sites.google.com/view/pad-paper

It is well-known that inverse dynamics models can improve tracking performance in robot control. These models need to precisely capture the robot dynamics, which consist of well-understood components, e.g., rigid body dynamics, and effects that remain challenging to capture, e.g., stick-slip friction and mechanical flexibilities. Such effects exhibit hysteresis and partial observability, rendering them, particularly challenging to model. Hence, hybrid models, which combine a physical prior with data-driven approaches are especially well-suited in this setting. We present a novel hybrid model formulation that enables us to identify fully physically consistent inertial parameters of a rigid body dynamics model which is paired with a recurrent neural network architecture, allowing us to capture unmodeled partially observable effects using the network memory. We compare our approach against state-of-the-art inverse dynamics models on a 7 degree of freedom manipulator. Using data sets obtained through an optimal experiment design approach, we study the accuracy of offline torque prediction and generalization capabilities of joint learning methods. In control experiments on the real system, we evaluate the model as a feed-forward term for impedance control and show the feedback gains can be drastically reduced to achieve a given tracking accuracy.

In this report, we present the latest model of the Gemini family, Gemini 1.5 Pro, a highly compute-efficient multimodal mixture-of-experts model capable of recalling and reasoning over fine-grained information from millions of tokens of context, including multiple long documents and hours of video and audio. Gemini 1.5 Pro achieves near-perfect recall on long-context retrieval tasks across modalities, improves the state-of-the-art in long-document QA, long-video QA and long-context ASR, and matches or surpasses Gemini 1.0 Ultra's state-of-the-art performance across a broad set of benchmarks. Studying the limits of Gemini 1.5 Pro's long-context ability, we find continued improvement in next-token prediction and near-perfect retrieval (>99%) up to at least 10M tokens, a generational leap over existing models such as Claude 2.1 (200k) and GPT-4 Turbo (128k). Finally, we highlight surprising new capabilities of large language models at the frontier; when given a grammar manual for Kalamang, a language with fewer than 200 speakers worldwide, the model learns to translate English to Kalamang at a similar level to a person who learned from the same content.

Fill-in-the-Middle (FIM) has become integral to code language models, enabling generation of missing code given both left and right contexts. However, the current FIM training paradigm, which reorders original training sequences and then performs regular next-token prediction (NTP), often leads to models struggling to generate content that aligns smoothly with the surrounding context. Crucially, while existing works rely on rule-based post-processing to circumvent this weakness, such methods are not practically usable in open-domain code completion tasks as they depend on restrictive, dataset-specific assumptions (e.g., generating the same number of lines as in the ground truth). Moreover, model performance on FIM tasks deteriorates significantly without these unrealistic assumptions. We hypothesize that NTP alone is insufficient for models to learn effective planning conditioned on the distant right context, a critical factor for successful code infilling. To overcome this, we propose Horizon-Length Prediction (HLP), a novel training objective that teaches models to predict the number of remaining middle tokens (i.e., horizon length) at each step. HLP advances FIM with lookahead planning, enabling models to inherently learn infilling boundaries for arbitrary left and right contexts without relying on dataset-specific post-processing. Our evaluation across different models and sizes shows that HLP significantly improves FIM performance by up to 24% relatively on diverse benchmarks, across file-level and repository-level, and without resorting to unrealistic post-processing methods. Furthermore, the enhanced planning capability gained through HLP boosts model performance on code reasoning. Importantly, HLP only incurs negligible training overhead and no additional inference cost, ensuring its practicality for real-world scenarios.

We introduce AuriStream, a biologically inspired model for encoding speech via a two-stage framework inspired by the human auditory processing hierarchy. The first stage transforms raw audio into a time-frequency representation based on the human cochlea, from which we extract discrete cochlear tokens. The second stage applies an autoregressive sequence model over the cochlear tokens. AuriStream learns meaningful phoneme and word representations, and state-of-the-art lexical semantics. AuriStream shows competitive performance on diverse downstream SUPERB speech tasks. Complementing AuriStream's strong representational capabilities, it generates continuations of audio which can be visualized in a spectrogram space and decoded back into audio, providing insights into the model's predictions. In summary, we present a two-stage framework for speech representation learning to advance the development of more human-like models that efficiently handle a range of speech-based tasks.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have sparked growing interest in integrating language-driven techniques into trajectory prediction. By leveraging their semantic and reasoning capabilities, LLMs are reshaping how autonomous systems perceive, model, and predict trajectories. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of this emerging field, categorizing recent work into five directions: (1) Trajectory prediction via language modeling paradigms, (2) Direct trajectory prediction with pretrained language models, (3) Language-guided scene understanding for trajectory prediction, (4) Language-driven data generation for trajectory prediction, (5) Language-based reasoning and interpretability for trajectory prediction. For each, we analyze representative methods, highlight core design choices, and identify open challenges. This survey bridges natural language processing and trajectory prediction, offering a unified perspective on how language can enrich trajectory prediction.

The impact of soiling on solar panels is an important and well-studied problem in renewable energy sector. In this paper, we present the first convolutional neural network (CNN) based approach for solar panel soiling and defect analysis. Our approach takes an RGB image of solar panel and environmental factors as inputs to predict power loss, soiling localization, and soiling type. In computer vision, localization is a complex task which typically requires manually labeled training data such as bounding boxes or segmentation masks. Our proposed approach consists of specialized four stages which completely avoids localization ground truth and only needs panel images with power loss labels for training. The region of impact area obtained from the predicted localization masks are classified into soiling types using the webly supervised learning. For improving localization capabilities of CNNs, we introduce a novel bi-directional input-aware fusion (BiDIAF) block that reinforces the input at different levels of CNN to learn input-specific feature maps. Our empirical study shows that BiDIAF improves the power loss prediction accuracy by about 3% and localization accuracy by about 4%. Our end-to-end model yields further improvement of about 24% on localization when learned in a weakly supervised manner. Our approach is generalizable and showed promising results on web crawled solar panel images. Our system has a frame rate of 22 fps (including all steps) on a NVIDIA TitanX GPU. Additionally, we collected first of it's kind dataset for solar panel image analysis consisting 45,000+ images.

Language models have made significant progress in generating coherent text and predicting next tokens based on input prompts. This study compares the next-token prediction performance of two well-known models: OpenAI's GPT-2 and Meta's Llama-2-7b-chat-hf on Theory of Mind (ToM) tasks. To evaluate their capabilities, we built a dataset from 10 short stories sourced from the Explore ToM Dataset. We enhanced these stories by programmatically inserting additional sentences (infills) using GPT-4, creating variations that introduce different levels of contextual complexity. This setup enables analysis of how increasing context affects model performance. We tested both models under four temperature settings (0.01, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0) and evaluated their ability to predict the next token across three reasoning levels. Zero-order reasoning involves tracking the state, either current (ground truth) or past (memory). First-order reasoning concerns understanding another's mental state (e.g., "Does Anne know the apple is salted?"). Second-order reasoning adds recursion (e.g., "Does Anne think that Charles knows the apple is salted?"). Our results show that adding more infill sentences slightly reduces prediction accuracy, as added context increases complexity and ambiguity. Llama-2 consistently outperforms GPT-2 in prediction accuracy, especially at lower temperatures, demonstrating greater confidence in selecting the most probable token. As reasoning complexity rises, model responses diverge more. Notably, GPT-2 and Llama-2 display greater variability in predictions during first- and second-order reasoning tasks. These findings illustrate how model architecture, temperature, and contextual complexity influence next-token prediction, contributing to a better understanding of the strengths and limitations of current language models.

Large language models (LLMs) possess broad world knowledge and strong general-purpose reasoning ability, yet they struggle to learn from many in-context examples on standard machine learning (ML) tasks, that is, to leverage many-shot demonstrations purely via in-context learning (ICL) without gradient descent. We introduce MachineLearningLM, a portable continued-pretraining framework that equips a general-purpose LLM with robust in-context ML capability while preserving its general knowledge and reasoning for broader chat workflows. Our pretraining procedure synthesizes ML tasks from millions of structural causal models (SCMs), spanning shot counts up to 1,024. We begin with a random-forest teacher, distilling tree-based decision strategies into the LLM to strengthen robustness in numerical modeling. All tasks are serialized with a token-efficient prompt, enabling 3x to 6x more examples per context window and delivering up to 50x amortized throughput via batch inference. Despite a modest setup (Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct with LoRA rank 8), MachineLearningLM outperforms strong LLM baselines (e.g., GPT-5-mini) by an average of about 15% on out-of-distribution tabular classification across finance, physics, biology, and healthcare domains. It exhibits a striking many-shot scaling law: accuracy increases monotonically as in-context demonstrations grow from 8 to 1,024. Without any task-specific training, it attains random-forest-level accuracy across hundreds of shots. General chat capabilities, including knowledge and reasoning, are preserved: it achieves 75.4% on MMLU.

This paper presents Diffusion Forcing, a new training paradigm where a diffusion model is trained to denoise a set of tokens with independent per-token noise levels. We apply Diffusion Forcing to sequence generative modeling by training a causal next-token prediction model to generate one or several future tokens without fully diffusing past ones. Our approach is shown to combine the strengths of next-token prediction models, such as variable-length generation, with the strengths of full-sequence diffusion models, such as the ability to guide sampling to desirable trajectories. Our method offers a range of additional capabilities, such as (1) rolling-out sequences of continuous tokens, such as video, with lengths past the training horizon, where baselines diverge and (2) new sampling and guiding schemes that uniquely profit from Diffusion Forcing's variable-horizon and causal architecture, and which lead to marked performance gains in decision-making and planning tasks. In addition to its empirical success, our method is proven to optimize a variational lower bound on the likelihoods of all subsequences of tokens drawn from the true joint distribution. Project website: https://boyuan.space/diffusion-forcing/

Large Language Models (LLMs) hold great promise to revolutionize current clinical systems for their superior capacities on medical text processing tasks and medical licensing exams. Meanwhile, traditional ML models such as SVM and XGBoost have still been mainly adopted in clinical prediction tasks. An emerging question is Can LLMs beat traditional ML models in clinical prediction? Thus, we build a new benchmark ClinicalBench to comprehensively study the clinical predictive modeling capacities of both general-purpose and medical LLMs, and compare them with traditional ML models. ClinicalBench embraces three common clinical prediction tasks, two databases, 14 general-purpose LLMs, 8 medical LLMs, and 11 traditional ML models. Through extensive empirical investigation, we discover that both general-purpose and medical LLMs, even with different model scales, diverse prompting or fine-tuning strategies, still cannot beat traditional ML models in clinical prediction yet, shedding light on their potential deficiency in clinical reasoning and decision-making. We call for caution when practitioners adopt LLMs in clinical applications. ClinicalBench can be utilized to bridge the gap between LLMs' development for healthcare and real-world clinical practice.

In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion. While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment. We present IC-Mamba, a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling interval-censored data with integrated temporal embeddings. Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143), enabling rapid assessment of content reach. By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures fine-grained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis). Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751 for narrative-level predictions). The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days. These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/ic-mamba. An interactive dashboard demonstrating our results is available at: https://ic-mamba.behavioral-ds.science.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

Drug discovery is a complex and time-intensive process that requires identifying and validating new therapeutic candidates. Computational approaches using large-scale biomedical knowledge graphs (KGs) offer a promising solution to accelerate this process. However, extracting meaningful insights from large-scale KGs remains challenging due to the complexity of graph traversal. Existing subgraph-based methods are tailored to graph neural networks (GNNs), making them incompatible with other models, such as large language models (LLMs). We introduce K-Paths, a retrieval framework that extracts structured, diverse, and biologically meaningful paths from KGs. Integrating these paths enables LLMs and GNNs to effectively predict unobserved drug-drug and drug-disease interactions. Unlike traditional path-ranking approaches, K-Paths retrieves and transforms paths into a structured format that LLMs can directly process, facilitating explainable reasoning. K-Paths employs a diversity-aware adaptation of Yen's algorithm to retrieve the K shortest loopless paths between entities in an interaction query, prioritizing biologically relevant and diverse relationships. Our experiments on benchmark datasets show that K-Paths improves the zero-shot performance of Llama 8.1B's F1-score by 12.45 points on drug repurposing and 13.42 points on interaction severity prediction. We also show that Llama 70B achieves F1-score gains of 6.18 and 8.46 points, respectively. K-Paths also improves the supervised training efficiency of EmerGNN, a state-of-the-art GNN, by reducing KG size by 90% while maintaining strong predictive performance. Beyond its scalability and efficiency, K-Paths uniquely bridges the gap between KGs and LLMs, providing explainable rationales for predicted interactions. These capabilities show that K-Paths is a valuable tool for efficient data-driven drug discovery.

3D semantic occupancy prediction networks have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in reconstructing the geometric and semantic structure of 3D scenes, providing crucial information for robot navigation and autonomous driving systems. However, due to their large overhead from dense network structure designs, existing networks face challenges balancing accuracy and latency. In this paper, we introduce OccRWKV, an efficient semantic occupancy network inspired by Receptance Weighted Key Value (RWKV). OccRWKV separates semantics, occupancy prediction, and feature fusion into distinct branches, each incorporating Sem-RWKV and Geo-RWKV blocks. These blocks are designed to capture long-range dependencies, enabling the network to learn domain-specific representation (i.e., semantics and geometry), which enhances prediction accuracy. Leveraging the sparse nature of real-world 3D occupancy, we reduce computational overhead by projecting features into the bird's-eye view (BEV) space and propose a BEV-RWKV block for efficient feature enhancement and fusion. This enables real-time inference at 22.2 FPS without compromising performance. Experiments demonstrate that OccRWKV outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on the SemanticKITTI dataset, achieving a mIoU of 25.1 while being 20 times faster than the best baseline, Co-Occ, making it suitable for real-time deployment on robots to enhance autonomous navigation efficiency. Code and video are available on our project page: https://jmwang0117.github.io/OccRWKV/.

Text-based 2D diffusion models have demonstrated impressive capabilities in image generation and editing. Meanwhile, the 2D diffusion models also exhibit substantial potentials for 3D editing tasks. However, how to achieve consistent edits across multiple viewpoints remains a challenge. While the iterative dataset update method is capable of achieving global consistency, it suffers from slow convergence and over-smoothed textures. We propose SyncNoise, a novel geometry-guided multi-view consistent noise editing approach for high-fidelity 3D scene editing. SyncNoise synchronously edits multiple views with 2D diffusion models while enforcing multi-view noise predictions to be geometrically consistent, which ensures global consistency in both semantic structure and low-frequency appearance. To further enhance local consistency in high-frequency details, we set a group of anchor views and propagate them to their neighboring frames through cross-view reprojection. To improve the reliability of multi-view correspondences, we introduce depth supervision during training to enhance the reconstruction of precise geometries. Our method achieves high-quality 3D editing results respecting the textual instructions, especially in scenes with complex textures, by enhancing geometric consistency at the noise and pixel levels.

Multiple Sequence Alignment (MSA) plays a pivotal role in unveiling the evolutionary trajectories of protein families. The accuracy of protein structure predictions is often compromised for protein sequences that lack sufficient homologous information to construct high quality MSA. Although various methods have been proposed to generate virtual MSA under these conditions, they fall short in comprehensively capturing the intricate coevolutionary patterns within MSA or require guidance from external oracle models. Here we introduce MSAGPT, a novel approach to prompt protein structure predictions via MSA generative pretraining in the low MSA regime. MSAGPT employs a simple yet effective 2D evolutionary positional encoding scheme to model complex evolutionary patterns. Endowed by this, its flexible 1D MSA decoding framework facilitates zero or few shot learning. Moreover, we demonstrate that leveraging the feedback from AlphaFold2 can further enhance the model capacity via Rejective Fine tuning (RFT) and Reinforcement Learning from AF2 Feedback (RLAF). Extensive experiments confirm the efficacy of MSAGPT in generating faithful virtual MSA to enhance the structure prediction accuracy. The transfer learning capabilities also highlight its great potential for facilitating other protein tasks.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

The recent DeepSeek-R1 has showcased the emergence of reasoning capabilities in LLMs through reinforcement learning (RL) with rule-based rewards. Building on this idea, we are the first to explore how rule-based RL can enhance the reasoning capabilities of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) for graphic user interface (GUI) action prediction tasks. To this end, we curate a small yet high-quality dataset of 136 challenging tasks, encompassing five common action types on mobile devices. We also introduce a unified rule-based action reward, enabling model optimization via policy-based algorithms such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed data-efficient model, UI-R1-3B, achieves substantial improvements on both in-domain (ID) and out-of-domain (OOD) tasks. Specifically, on the ID benchmark AndroidControl, the action type accuracy improves by 15%, while grounding accuracy increases by 10.3%, compared with the base model (i.e. Qwen2.5-VL-3B). On the OOD GUI grounding benchmark ScreenSpot-Pro, our model surpasses the base model by 6.0% and achieves competitive performance with larger models (e.g., OS-Atlas-7B), which are trained via supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on 76K data. These results underscore the potential of rule-based reinforcement learning to advance GUI understanding and control, paving the way for future research in this domain.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown great potential in perception and interpretation tasks, but their capabilities in predictive reasoning remain under-explored. To address this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark that assesses the predictive reasoning capabilities of MLLMs across diverse scenarios. Our benchmark targets three important domains: abstract pattern reasoning, human activity prediction, and physical interaction prediction. We further develop three evaluation methods powered by large language model to robustly quantify a model's performance in predicting and reasoning the future based on multi-visual context. Empirical experiments confirm the soundness of the proposed benchmark and evaluation methods via rigorous testing and reveal pros and cons of current popular MLLMs in the task of predictive reasoning. Lastly, our proposed benchmark provides a standardized evaluation framework for MLLMs and can facilitate the development of more advanced models that can reason and predict over complex long sequence of multimodal input.

Channel prediction permits to acquire channel state information (CSI) without signaling overhead. However, almost all existing channel prediction methods necessitate the deployment of a dedicated model to accommodate a specific configuration. Leveraging the powerful modeling and multi-task learning capabilities of foundation models, we propose the first space-time-frequency (STF) wireless foundation model (WiFo) to address time-frequency channel prediction tasks in a one-for-all manner. Specifically, WiFo is initially pre-trained over massive and extensive diverse CSI datasets. Then, the model will be instantly used for channel prediction under various CSI configurations without any fine-tuning. We propose a masked autoencoder (MAE)-based network structure for WiFo to handle heterogeneous STF CSI data, and design several mask reconstruction tasks for self-supervised pre-training to capture the inherent 3D variations of CSI. To fully unleash its predictive power, we build a large-scale heterogeneous simulated CSI dataset consisting of 160K CSI samples for pre-training. Simulations validate its superior unified learning performance across multiple datasets and demonstrate its state-of-the-art (SOTA) zero-shot generalization performance via comparisons with other full-shot baselines.

Mobile robots require accurate and robust depth measurements to understand and interact with the environment. While existing sensing modalities address this problem to some extent, recent research on monocular depth estimation has leveraged the information richness, yet low cost and simplicity of monocular cameras. These works have shown significant generalization capabilities, mainly in automotive and indoor settings. However, robots often operate in environments with limited scale cues, self-similar appearances, and low texture. In this work, we encode measurements from a low-cost mmWave radar into the input space of a state-of-the-art monocular depth estimation model. Despite the radar's extreme point cloud sparsity, our method demonstrates generalization and robustness across industrial and outdoor experiments. Our approach reduces the absolute relative error of depth predictions by 9-64% across a range of unseen, real-world validation datasets. Importantly, we maintain consistency of all performance metrics across all experiments and scene depths where current vision-only approaches fail. We further address the present deficit of training data in mobile robotics environments by introducing a novel methodology for synthesizing rendered, realistic learning datasets based on photogrammetric data that simulate the radar sensor observations for training. Our code, datasets, and pre-trained networks are made available at https://github.com/ethz-asl/radarmeetsvision.

Deep Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction models play an important role in modern industrial recommendation scenarios. However, high memory overhead and computational costs limit their deployment in resource-constrained environments. Low-rank approximation is an effective method for computer vision and natural language processing models, but its application in compressing CTR prediction models has been less explored. Due to the limited memory and computing resources, compression of CTR prediction models often confronts three fundamental challenges, i.e., (1). How to reduce the model sizes to adapt to edge devices? (2). How to speed up CTR prediction model inference? (3). How to retain the capabilities of original models after compression? Previous low-rank compression research mostly uses tensor decomposition, which can achieve a high parameter compression ratio, but brings in AUC degradation and additional computing overhead. To address these challenges, we propose a unified low-rank decomposition framework for compressing CTR prediction models. We find that even with the most classic matrix decomposition SVD method, our framework can achieve better performance than the original model. To further improve the effectiveness of our framework, we locally compress the output features instead of compressing the model weights. Our unified low-rank compression framework can be applied to embedding tables and MLP layers in various CTR prediction models. Extensive experiments on two academic datasets and one real industrial benchmark demonstrate that, with 3-5x model size reduction, our compressed models can achieve both faster inference and higher AUC than the uncompressed original models. Our code is at https://github.com/yuhao318/Atomic_Feature_Mimicking.

We introduce Masked Trajectory Models (MTM) as a generic abstraction for sequential decision making. MTM takes a trajectory, such as a state-action sequence, and aims to reconstruct the trajectory conditioned on random subsets of the same trajectory. By training with a highly randomized masking pattern, MTM learns versatile networks that can take on different roles or capabilities, by simply choosing appropriate masks at inference time. For example, the same MTM network can be used as a forward dynamics model, inverse dynamics model, or even an offline RL agent. Through extensive experiments in several continuous control tasks, we show that the same MTM network -- i.e. same weights -- can match or outperform specialized networks trained for the aforementioned capabilities. Additionally, we find that state representations learned by MTM can significantly accelerate the learning speed of traditional RL algorithms. Finally, in offline RL benchmarks, we find that MTM is competitive with specialized offline RL algorithms, despite MTM being a generic self-supervised learning method without any explicit RL components. Code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/mtm

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in aligning visual and textual modalities, enabling a wide range of applications in multimodal understanding and generation. While they excel in zero-shot and transfer learning scenarios, VLMs remain susceptible to misclassification, often yielding confident yet incorrect predictions. This limitation poses a significant risk in safety-critical domains, where erroneous predictions can lead to severe consequences. In this work, we introduce TrustVLM, a training-free framework designed to address the critical challenge of estimating when VLM's predictions can be trusted. Motivated by the observed modality gap in VLMs and the insight that certain concepts are more distinctly represented in the image embedding space, we propose a novel confidence-scoring function that leverages this space to improve misclassification detection. We rigorously evaluate our approach across 17 diverse datasets, employing 4 architectures and 2 VLMs, and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, with improvements of up to 51.87% in AURC, 9.14% in AUROC, and 32.42% in FPR95 compared to existing baselines. By improving the reliability of the model without requiring retraining, TrustVLM paves the way for safer deployment of VLMs in real-world applications. The code will be available at https://github.com/EPFL-IMOS/TrustVLM.

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success using in-context learning (ICL) in the language domain. However, leveraging the ICL capabilities within LLMs to directly predict robot actions remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we introduce RoboPrompt, a framework that enables off-the-shelf text-only LLMs to directly predict robot actions through ICL without training. Our approach first heuristically identifies keyframes that capture important moments from an episode. Next, we extract end-effector actions from these keyframes as well as the estimated initial object poses, and both are converted into textual descriptions. Finally, we construct a structured template to form ICL demonstrations from these textual descriptions and a task instruction. This enables an LLM to directly predict robot actions at test time. Through extensive experiments and analysis, RoboPrompt shows stronger performance over zero-shot and ICL baselines in simulated and real-world settings.

Inspired by the impressive capabilities of GPT-4o, there is growing interest in enabling speech language models (SLMs) to engage in natural, fluid spoken interactions with humans. Recent advancements have led to the development of several SLMs that demonstrate promising results in this area. However, current approaches have yet to fully exploit dual-channel speech data, which inherently captures the structure and dynamics of human conversation. In this work, we systematically explore the use of dual-channel speech data in the context of modern large language models, and introduce a novel generative modeling paradigm, Next-Token-Pair Prediction (NTPP), to enable speaker-independent dual-channel spoken dialogue learning using decoder-only architectures for the first time. We evaluate our approach on standard benchmarks, and empirical results show that our proposed method, NTPP, significantly improves the conversational abilities of SLMs in terms of turn-taking prediction, response coherence, and naturalness. Moreover, compared to existing methods, NTPP achieves substantially lower inference latency, highlighting its practical efficiency for real-time applications.

How can we predict future interaction trajectories of human hands in a scene given high-level colloquial task specifications in the form of natural language? In this paper, we extend the classic hand trajectory prediction task to two tasks involving explicit or implicit language queries. Our proposed tasks require extensive understanding of human daily activities and reasoning abilities about what should be happening next given cues from the current scene. We also develop new benchmarks to evaluate the proposed two tasks, Vanilla Hand Prediction (VHP) and Reasoning-Based Hand Prediction (RBHP). We enable solving these tasks by integrating high-level world knowledge and reasoning capabilities of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) with the auto-regressive nature of low-level ego-centric hand trajectories. Our model, HandsOnVLM is a novel VLM that can generate textual responses and produce future hand trajectories through natural-language conversations. Our experiments show that HandsOnVLM outperforms existing task-specific methods and other VLM baselines on proposed tasks, and demonstrates its ability to effectively utilize world knowledge for reasoning about low-level human hand trajectories based on the provided context. Our website contains code and detailed video results https://www.chenbao.tech/handsonvlm/

Ribonucleic acid (RNA) plays a variety of crucial roles in fundamental biological processes. Recently, RNA has become an interesting drug target, emphasizing the need to improve our understanding of its structures and functions. Over the years, sequencing technologies have produced an enormous amount of unlabeled RNA data, which hides important knowledge and potential. Motivated by the successes of protein language models, we introduce RiboNucleic Acid Language Model (RiNALMo) to help unveil the hidden code of RNA. RiNALMo is the largest RNA language model to date with 650 million parameters pre-trained on 36 million non-coding RNA sequences from several available databases. RiNALMo is able to extract hidden knowledge and capture the underlying structure information implicitly embedded within the RNA sequences. RiNALMo achieves state-of-the-art results on several downstream tasks. Notably, we show that its generalization capabilities can overcome the inability of other deep learning methods for secondary structure prediction to generalize on unseen RNA families. The code has been made publicly available on https://github.com/lbcb-sci/RiNALMo.

We introduce LAMBADA, a dataset to evaluate the capabilities of computational models for text understanding by means of a word prediction task. LAMBADA is a collection of narrative passages sharing the characteristic that human subjects are able to guess their last word if they are exposed to the whole passage, but not if they only see the last sentence preceding the target word. To succeed on LAMBADA, computational models cannot simply rely on local context, but must be able to keep track of information in the broader discourse. We show that LAMBADA exemplifies a wide range of linguistic phenomena, and that none of several state-of-the-art language models reaches accuracy above 1% on this novel benchmark. We thus propose LAMBADA as a challenging test set, meant to encourage the development of new models capable of genuine understanding of broad context in natural language text.

Predicting and anticipating future outcomes or reasoning about missing information in a sequence are critical skills for agents to be able to make intelligent decisions. This requires strong, temporally coherent generative capabilities. Diffusion models have shown remarkable success in several generative tasks, but have not been extensively explored in the video domain. We present Random-Mask Video Diffusion (RaMViD), which extends image diffusion models to videos using 3D convolutions, and introduces a new conditioning technique during training. By varying the mask we condition on, the model is able to perform video prediction, infilling, and upsampling. Due to our simple conditioning scheme, we can utilize the same architecture as used for unconditional training, which allows us to train the model in a conditional and unconditional fashion at the same time. We evaluate RaMViD on two benchmark datasets for video prediction, on which we achieve state-of-the-art results, and one for video generation. High-resolution videos are provided at https://sites.google.com/view/video-diffusion-prediction.

Large language models such as GPT and Llama are trained with a next-token prediction loss. In this work, we suggest that training language models to predict multiple future tokens at once results in higher sample efficiency. More specifically, at each position in the training corpus, we ask the model to predict the following n tokens using n independent output heads, operating on top of a shared model trunk. Considering multi-token prediction as an auxiliary training task, we measure improved downstream capabilities with no overhead in training time for both code and natural language models. The method is increasingly useful for larger model sizes, and keeps its appeal when training for multiple epochs. Gains are especially pronounced on generative benchmarks like coding, where our models consistently outperform strong baselines by several percentage points. Our 13B parameter models solves 12 % more problems on HumanEval and 17 % more on MBPP than comparable next-token models. Experiments on small algorithmic tasks demonstrate that multi-token prediction is favorable for the development of induction heads and algorithmic reasoning capabilities. As an additional benefit, models trained with 4-token prediction are up to 3 times faster at inference, even with large batch sizes.

Next-token prediction serves as the foundational learning task enabling reasoning in LLMs. But what should the learning task be when aiming to equip MLLMs with temporal reasoning capabilities over video inputs? Existing tasks such as video question answering often rely on annotations from humans or much stronger MLLMs, while video captioning tends to entangle temporal reasoning with spatial information. To address this gap, we propose next-event prediction (NEP), a learning task that harnesses future video segments as a rich, self-supervised signal to foster temporal reasoning. We segment each video into past and future frames: the MLLM takes the past frames as input and predicts a summary of events derived from the future frames, thereby encouraging the model to reason temporally in order to complete the task. To support this task, we curate V1-33K, a dataset comprising 33,000 automatically extracted video segments spanning diverse real-world scenarios. We further explore a range of video instruction-tuning strategies to study their effects on temporal reasoning. To evaluate progress, we introduce FutureBench to assess coherence in predicting unseen future events. Experiments validate that NEP offers a scalable and effective training paradigm for fostering temporal reasoning in MLLMs.

Many clinical tasks require an understanding of specialized data, such as medical images and genomics, which is not typically found in general-purpose large multimodal models. Building upon Gemini's multimodal models, we develop several models within the new Med-Gemini family that inherit core capabilities of Gemini and are optimized for medical use via fine-tuning with 2D and 3D radiology, histopathology, ophthalmology, dermatology and genomic data. Med-Gemini-2D sets a new standard for AI-based chest X-ray (CXR) report generation based on expert evaluation, exceeding previous best results across two separate datasets by an absolute margin of 1% and 12%, where 57% and 96% of AI reports on normal cases, and 43% and 65% on abnormal cases, are evaluated as "equivalent or better" than the original radiologists' reports. We demonstrate the first ever large multimodal model-based report generation for 3D computed tomography (CT) volumes using Med-Gemini-3D, with 53% of AI reports considered clinically acceptable, although additional research is needed to meet expert radiologist reporting quality. Beyond report generation, Med-Gemini-2D surpasses the previous best performance in CXR visual question answering (VQA) and performs well in CXR classification and radiology VQA, exceeding SoTA or baselines on 17 of 20 tasks. In histopathology, ophthalmology, and dermatology image classification, Med-Gemini-2D surpasses baselines across 18 out of 20 tasks and approaches task-specific model performance. Beyond imaging, Med-Gemini-Polygenic outperforms the standard linear polygenic risk score-based approach for disease risk prediction and generalizes to genetically correlated diseases for which it has never been trained. Although further development and evaluation are necessary in the safety-critical medical domain, our results highlight the potential of Med-Gemini across a wide range of medical tasks.

As the academic landscape expands, the challenge of efficiently identifying potentially high-impact articles among the vast number of newly published works becomes critical. This paper introduces a promising approach, leveraging the capabilities of fine-tuned LLMs to predict the future impact of newborn articles solely based on titles and abstracts. Moving beyond traditional methods heavily reliant on external information, the proposed method discerns the shared semantic features of highly impactful papers from a large collection of title-abstract and potential impact pairs. These semantic features are further utilized to regress an improved metric, TNCSI_SP, which has been endowed with value, field, and time normalization properties. Additionally, a comprehensive dataset has been constructed and released for fine-tuning the LLM, containing over 12,000 entries with corresponding titles, abstracts, and TNCSI_SP. The quantitative results, with an NDCG@20 of 0.901, demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting the impact of newborn articles when compared to competitive counterparts. Finally, we demonstrate a real-world application for predicting the impact of newborn journal articles to demonstrate its noteworthy practical value. Overall, our findings challenge existing paradigms and propose a shift towards a more content-focused prediction of academic impact, offering new insights for assessing newborn article impact.

We introduce KALL-E, a novel autoregressive (AR) language modeling approach with next-distribution prediction for text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis. Unlike existing methods, KALL-E directly models and predicts the continuous speech distribution conditioned on text without relying on VAE- or diffusion-based components. Specifically, we use WaveVAE to extract continuous speech distributions from waveforms instead of using discrete speech tokens. A single AR language model predicts these continuous speech distributions from text, with a Kullback-Leibler divergence loss as the constraint. Experimental results show that KALL-E outperforms open-source implementations of YourTTS, VALL-E, NaturalSpeech 2, and CosyVoice in terms of naturalness and speaker similarity in zero-shot TTS scenarios. Moreover, KALL-E demonstrates exceptional zero-shot capabilities in emotion and accent cloning. Importantly, KALL-E presents a more straightforward and effective paradigm for using continuous speech representations in TTS. Audio samples are available at: https://zxf-icpc.github.io/kalle/.

Efficient and accurate prediction of material properties is critical for advancing materials design and applications. The rapid-evolution of large language models (LLMs) presents a new opportunity for material property predictions, complementing experimental measurements and multi-scale computational methods. We focus on predicting the elastic constant tensor, as a case study, and develop domain-specific LLMs for predicting elastic constants and for materials discovery. The proposed ElaTBot LLM enables simultaneous prediction of elastic constant tensors, bulk modulus at finite temperatures, and the generation of new materials with targeted properties. Moreover, the capabilities of ElaTBot are further enhanced by integrating with general LLMs (GPT-4o) and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) for prediction. A specialized variant, ElaTBot-DFT, designed for 0 K elastic constant tensor prediction, reduces the prediction errors by 33.1% compared with domain-specific, material science LLMs (Darwin) trained on the same dataset. This natural language-based approach lowers the barriers to computational materials science and highlights the broader potential of LLMs for material property predictions and inverse design.

Financial trading has been a challenging task, as it requires the integration of vast amounts of data from various modalities. Traditional deep learning and reinforcement learning methods require large training data and often involve encoding various data types into numerical formats for model input, which limits the explainability of model behavior. Recently, LLM-based agents have demonstrated remarkable advancements in handling multi-modal data, enabling them to execute complex, multi-step decision-making tasks while providing insights into their thought processes. This research introduces a multi-modal multi-agent system designed specifically for financial trading tasks. Our framework employs a team of specialized LLM-based agents, each adept at processing and interpreting various forms of financial data, such as textual news reports, candlestick charts, and trading signal charts. A key feature of our approach is the integration of a reflection module, which conducts analyses of historical trading signals and their outcomes. This reflective process is instrumental in enhancing the decision-making capabilities of the system for future trading scenarios. Furthermore, the ablation studies indicate that the visual reflection module plays a crucial role in enhancing the decision-making capabilities of our framework.

In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are computationally intensive and rely heavily on the expertise of forecasters. Contemporary data-driven methods often rely on reanalysis data, which can be considered to be the closest to the true representation of weather conditions. However, reanalysis data is not produced in real-time and requires time for adjustment because prediction models are calibrated with observational data. This reanalysis data, such as ERA5, falls short in challenging real-world situations. Optimal preparedness necessitates predictions at least 72 hours in advance, beyond the capabilities of standard physics models. In response to these constraints, we present an approach that harnesses real-time Unified Model (UM) data, sidestepping the limitations of reanalysis data. Our model provides predictions at 6-hour intervals for up to 72 hours in advance and outperforms both state-of-the-art data-driven methods and numerical weather prediction models. In line with our efforts to mitigate adversities inflicted by typhoons, we release our preprocessed PHYSICS TRACK dataset, which includes ERA5 reanalysis data, typhoon best-track, and UM forecast data.

Object detection has long been dominated by traditional coordinate regression-based models, such as YOLO, DETR, and Grounding DINO. Although recent efforts have attempted to leverage MLLMs to tackle this task, they face challenges like low recall rate, duplicate predictions, coordinate misalignment, etc. In this work, we bridge this gap and propose Rex-Omni, a 3B-scale MLLM that achieves state-of-the-art object perception performance. On benchmarks like COCO and LVIS, Rex-Omni attains performance comparable to or exceeding regression-based models (e.g., DINO, Grounding DINO) in a zero-shot setting. This is enabled by three key designs: 1) Task Formulation: we use special tokens to represent quantized coordinates from 0 to 999, reducing the model's learning difficulty and improving token efficiency for coordinate prediction; 2) Data Engines: we construct multiple data engines to generate high-quality grounding, referring, and pointing data, providing semantically rich supervision for training; \3) Training Pipelines: we employ a two-stage training process, combining supervised fine-tuning on 22 million data with GRPO-based reinforcement post-training. This RL post-training leverages geometry-aware rewards to effectively bridge the discrete-to-continuous coordinate prediction gap, improve box accuracy, and mitigate undesirable behaviors like duplicate predictions that stem from the teacher-guided nature of the initial SFT stage. Beyond conventional detection, Rex-Omni's inherent language understanding enables versatile capabilities such as object referring, pointing, visual prompting, GUI grounding, spatial referring, OCR and key-pointing, all systematically evaluated on dedicated benchmarks. We believe that Rex-Omni paves the way for more versatile and language-aware visual perception systems.

The rapid evolution of software libraries presents a significant challenge for code generation models, which must adapt to frequent version updates while maintaining compatibility with previous versions. Existing code completion benchmarks often overlook this dynamic aspect, and the one that does consider it relies on static code prediction tasks without execution-based evaluation, offering a limited perspective on a model's practical usability. To address this gap, we introduce \GitChameleon{}, a novel, manually curated dataset comprising 116 Python code completion problems, each conditioned on specific library versions and accompanied by executable unit tests. is designed to rigorously assess the ability of modern large language models (LLMs) to generate version-specific code that is not only syntactically correct but also functionally accurate upon execution. Our comprehensive evaluations reveal that state-of-the-art LLMs struggle with this task; for instance, GPT-4o achieves a pass@10 of only 39.9\% (43.7\% when provided with error feedback), highlighting the complexity of the problem and the limitations of current models. By providing an execution-based benchmark that emphasizes the dynamic nature of code libraries, serves as a critical tool to advance the development of more adaptable and reliable code generation models. For facilitation for further exploration of version-conditioned code generation, we make our code repository publicly accessible at https://github.com/NizarIslah/GitChameleon.

Multi-Object Tracking (MOT) has been a long-standing challenge in video understanding. A natural and intuitive approach is to split this task into two parts: object detection and association. Most mainstream methods employ meticulously crafted heuristic techniques to maintain trajectory information and compute cost matrices for object matching. Although these methods can achieve notable tracking performance, they often require a series of elaborate handcrafted modifications while facing complicated scenarios. We believe that manually assumed priors limit the method's adaptability and flexibility in learning optimal tracking capabilities from domain-specific data. Therefore, we introduce a new perspective that treats Multiple Object Tracking as an in-context ID Prediction task, transforming the aforementioned object association into an end-to-end trainable task. Based on this, we propose a simple yet effective method termed MOTIP. Given a set of trajectories carried with ID information, MOTIP directly decodes the ID labels for current detections to accomplish the association process. Without using tailored or sophisticated architectures, our method achieves state-of-the-art results across multiple benchmarks by solely leveraging object-level features as tracking cues. The simplicity and impressive results of MOTIP leave substantial room for future advancements, thereby making it a promising baseline for subsequent research. Our code and checkpoints are released at https://github.com/MCG-NJU/MOTIP.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in generalizing to new tasks in a zero-shot or few-shot manner. However, the extent to which LLMs can comprehend user preferences based on their previous behavior remains an emerging and still unclear research question. Traditionally, Collaborative Filtering (CF) has been the most effective method for these tasks, predominantly relying on the extensive volume of rating data. In contrast, LLMs typically demand considerably less data while maintaining an exhaustive world knowledge about each item, such as movies or products. In this paper, we conduct a thorough examination of both CF and LLMs within the classic task of user rating prediction, which involves predicting a user's rating for a candidate item based on their past ratings. We investigate various LLMs in different sizes, ranging from 250M to 540B parameters and evaluate their performance in zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuning scenarios. We conduct comprehensive analysis to compare between LLMs and strong CF methods, and find that zero-shot LLMs lag behind traditional recommender models that have the access to user interaction data, indicating the importance of user interaction data. However, through fine-tuning, LLMs achieve comparable or even better performance with only a small fraction of the training data, demonstrating their potential through data efficiency.

In this paper, we introduce PredBench, a benchmark tailored for the holistic evaluation of spatio-temporal prediction networks. Despite significant progress in this field, there remains a lack of a standardized framework for a detailed and comparative analysis of various prediction network architectures. PredBench addresses this gap by conducting large-scale experiments, upholding standardized and appropriate experimental settings, and implementing multi-dimensional evaluations. This benchmark integrates 12 widely adopted methods with 15 diverse datasets across multiple application domains, offering extensive evaluation of contemporary spatio-temporal prediction networks. Through meticulous calibration of prediction settings across various applications, PredBench ensures evaluations relevant to their intended use and enables fair comparisons. Moreover, its multi-dimensional evaluation framework broadens the analysis with a comprehensive set of metrics, providing deep insights into the capabilities of models. The findings from our research offer strategic directions for future developments in the field. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/PredBench.

We propose a novel text-to-speech (TTS) framework centered around a neural transducer. Our approach divides the whole TTS pipeline into semantic-level sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) modeling and fine-grained acoustic modeling stages, utilizing discrete semantic tokens obtained from wav2vec2.0 embeddings. For a robust and efficient alignment modeling, we employ a neural transducer named token transducer for the semantic token prediction, benefiting from its hard monotonic alignment constraints. Subsequently, a non-autoregressive (NAR) speech generator efficiently synthesizes waveforms from these semantic tokens. Additionally, a reference speech controls temporal dynamics and acoustic conditions at each stage. This decoupled framework reduces the training complexity of TTS while allowing each stage to focus on semantic and acoustic modeling. Our experimental results on zero-shot adaptive TTS demonstrate that our model surpasses the baseline in terms of speech quality and speaker similarity, both objectively and subjectively. We also delve into the inference speed and prosody control capabilities of our approach, highlighting the potential of neural transducers in TTS frameworks.

Interpretation and explanation of deep models is critical towards wide adoption of systems that rely on them. In this paper, we propose a novel scheme for both interpretation as well as explanation in which, given a pretrained model, we automatically identify internal features relevant for the set of classes considered by the model, without relying on additional annotations. We interpret the model through average visualizations of this reduced set of features. Then, at test time, we explain the network prediction by accompanying the predicted class label with supporting visualizations derived from the identified features. In addition, we propose a method to address the artifacts introduced by stridded operations in deconvNet-based visualizations. Moreover, we introduce an8Flower, a dataset specifically designed for objective quantitative evaluation of methods for visual explanation.Experiments on the MNIST,ILSVRC12,Fashion144k and an8Flower datasets show that our method produces detailed explanations with good coverage of relevant features of the classes of interest

Large Language Models (LLMs) are discovered to suffer from accurately retrieving key information. To address this, we propose Mask-Enhanced Autoregressive Prediction (MEAP), a simple yet effective training paradigm that seamlessly integrates Masked Language Modeling (MLM) into Next-Token Prediction (NTP) to enhance the latter's in-context retrieval capabilities. Specifically, MEAP first randomly masks a small fraction of input tokens and then directly performs the standard next-token prediction autoregressive using a decoder-only Transformer. MEAP eliminates the need for bidirectional attention or encoder-decoder architectures for MLM, incurring no additional computational overhead during pre-training or inference. Intensive experiments demonstrate that MEAP substantially outperforms NTP on key information retrieval and long-context reasoning tasks, while performing on par or better on commonsense reasoning tasks. The benefits of MEAP also extend to supervised fine-tuning, where it shows remarkable advantages in lost-in-the-middle scenarios, outperforming NTP by 11.77 percentage points. Our analysis indicates that MEAP's effectiveness arises from its ability to promote more distinguishable attention scores by concentrating on a reduced set of non-masked tokens. This mechanism improves the model's focus on task-relevant signals while mitigating the influence of peripheral context. These findings position MEAP as a promising training paradigm for large language models.

Activity and property prediction models are the central workhorses in drug discovery and materials sciences, but currently they have to be trained or fine-tuned for new tasks. Without training or fine-tuning, scientific language models could be used for such low-data tasks through their announced zero- and few-shot capabilities. However, their predictive quality at activity prediction is lacking. In this work, we envision a novel type of activity prediction model that is able to adapt to new prediction tasks at inference time, via understanding textual information describing the task. To this end, we propose a new architecture with separate modules for chemical and natural language inputs, and a contrastive pre-training objective on data from large biochemical databases. In extensive experiments, we show that our method CLAMP yields improved predictive performance on few-shot learning benchmarks and zero-shot problems in drug discovery. We attribute the advances of our method to the modularized architecture and to our pre-training objective.

Time series data is fundamental to decision-making in many crucial domains including healthcare, finance, and environmental science. However, analyzing this data often requires incorporating unstructured contextual information, answering domain-specific questions, and generating natural language explanations -- capabilities that traditional time series models lack due to their inability to process text. While Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at contextual reasoning and knowledge integration, they struggle with numerical time series due to inefficient text-based representations and limited exposure to temporal data during pretraining. We address this gap by augmenting an LLM with specialized time series perception through a patch-based encoder-decoder architecture. We train this Time Series-augmented LLM (TsLLM) on a large corpus of over 2 million interleaved time series and text examples spanning diverse analysis tasks: forecasting with contextual information, time series question-answering, pattern explanation, classification with natural language outputs, and report generation. This training enables TsLLM to leverage both its language understanding and newly acquired temporal reasoning capabilities. While not designed to surpass specialized models on traditional benchmarks, TsLLM demonstrates strong performance on tasks requiring the integration of time series analysis with natural language -- capabilities that existing approaches cannot provide. Our work establishes a new paradigm for time series analysis that bridges numerical computation and natural language understanding, democratizing access to sophisticated temporal reasoning through natural language interaction.

This paper introduces ViNet-S, a 36MB model based on the ViNet architecture with a U-Net design, featuring a lightweight decoder that significantly reduces model size and parameters without compromising performance. Additionally, ViNet-A (148MB) incorporates spatio-temporal action localization (STAL) features, differing from traditional video saliency models that use action classification backbones. Our studies show that an ensemble of ViNet-S and ViNet-A, by averaging predicted saliency maps, achieves state-of-the-art performance on three visual-only and six audio-visual saliency datasets, outperforming transformer-based models in both parameter efficiency and real-time performance, with ViNet-S reaching over 1000fps.

Recent advancements in Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have leveraged pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to improve the generalization capabilities. VLMs, typically pre-trained on vision-language understanding tasks, provide rich semantic knowledge and reasoning abilities. However, prior research has shown that VLMs often focus on high-level semantic content and neglect low-level features, limiting their ability to capture detailed spatial information and understand physical dynamics. These aspects, which are crucial for embodied control tasks, remain underexplored in existing pre-training paradigms. In this paper, we investigate the training paradigm for VLAs, and introduce UP-VLA, a Unified VLA model training with both multi-modal Understanding and future Prediction objectives, enhancing both high-level semantic comprehension and low-level spatial understanding. Experimental results show that UP-VLA achieves a 33% improvement on the Calvin ABC-D benchmark compared to the previous state-of-the-art method. Additionally, UP-VLA demonstrates improved success rates in real-world manipulation tasks, particularly those requiring precise spatial information.

Verifiers or reward models are often used to enhance the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs). A common approach is the Best-of-N method, where N candidate solutions generated by the LLM are ranked by a verifier, and the best one is selected. While LLM-based verifiers are typically trained as discriminative classifiers to score solutions, they do not utilize the text generation capabilities of pretrained LLMs. To overcome this limitation, we instead propose training verifiers using the ubiquitous next-token prediction objective, jointly on verification and solution generation. Compared to standard verifiers, such generative verifiers (GenRM) can benefit from several advantages of LLMs: they integrate seamlessly with instruction tuning, enable chain-of-thought reasoning, and can utilize additional inference-time compute via majority voting for better verification. We demonstrate that when using Gemma-based verifiers on algorithmic and grade-school math reasoning tasks, GenRM outperforms discriminative verifiers and LLM-as-a-Judge, showing a 16-64% improvement in the percentage of problems solved with Best-of-N. Furthermore, we show that GenRM scales favorably across dataset size, model capacity, and inference-time compute.

High-quality 3D world models are pivotal for embodied intelligence and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), underpinning applications such as AR/VR content creation and robotic navigation. Despite the established strong imaginative priors, current video foundation models lack explicit 3D grounding capabilities, thus being limited in both spatial consistency and their utility for downstream 3D reasoning tasks. In this work, we present FantasyWorld, a geometry-enhanced framework that augments frozen video foundation models with a trainable geometric branch, enabling joint modeling of video latents and an implicit 3D field in a single forward pass. Our approach introduces cross-branch supervision, where geometry cues guide video generation and video priors regularize 3D prediction, thus yielding consistent and generalizable 3D-aware video representations. Notably, the resulting latents from the geometric branch can potentially serve as versatile representations for downstream 3D tasks such as novel view synthesis and navigation, without requiring per-scene optimization or fine-tuning. Extensive experiments show that FantasyWorld effectively bridges video imagination and 3D perception, outperforming recent geometry-consistent baselines in multi-view coherence and style consistency. Ablation studies further confirm that these gains stem from the unified backbone and cross-branch information exchange.

Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) enhance personalized learning by predicting student answers to provide immediate and customized instruction. However, recent research has primarily focused on the correctness of the answer rather than the student's performance on specific answer choices, limiting insights into students' thought processes and potential misconceptions. To address this gap, we present MCQStudentBert, an answer forecasting model that leverages the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to integrate contextual understanding of students' answering history along with the text of the questions and answers. By predicting the specific answer choices students are likely to make, practitioners can easily extend the model to new answer choices or remove answer choices for the same multiple-choice question (MCQ) without retraining the model. In particular, we compare MLP, LSTM, BERT, and Mistral 7B architectures to generate embeddings from students' past interactions, which are then incorporated into a finetuned BERT's answer-forecasting mechanism. We apply our pipeline to a dataset of language learning MCQ, gathered from an ITS with over 10,000 students to explore the predictive accuracy of MCQStudentBert, which incorporates student interaction patterns, in comparison to correct answer prediction and traditional mastery-learning feature-based approaches. This work opens the door to more personalized content, modularization, and granular support.

Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are fundamental to numerous cellular processes, and their characterization is vital for understanding disease mechanisms and guiding drug discovery. While protein language models (PLMs) have demonstrated remarkable success in predicting protein structure and function, their application to sequence-based PPI binding affinity prediction remains relatively underexplored. This gap is often attributed to the scarcity of high-quality, rigorously refined datasets and the reliance on simple strategies for concatenating protein representations. In this work, we address these limitations. First, we introduce a meticulously curated version of the PPB-Affinity dataset of a total of 8,207 unique protein-protein interaction entries, by resolving annotation inconsistencies and duplicate entries for multi-chain protein interactions. This dataset incorporates a stringent, less than or equal to 30%, sequence identity threshold to ensure robust splitting into training, validation, and test sets, minimizing data leakage. Second, we propose and systematically evaluate four architectures for adapting PLMs to PPI binding affinity prediction: embeddings concatenation (EC), sequences concatenation (SC), hierarchical pooling (HP), and pooled attention addition (PAD). These architectures were assessed using two training methods: full fine-tuning and a lightweight approach employing ConvBERT heads over frozen PLM features. Our comprehensive experiments across multiple leading PLMs (ProtT5, ESM2, Ankh, Ankh2, and ESM3) demonstrated that the HP and PAD architectures consistently outperform conventional concatenation methods, achieving up to 12% increase in terms of Spearman correlation. These results highlight the necessity of sophisticated architectural designs to fully exploit the capabilities of PLMs for nuanced PPI binding affinity prediction.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved notable progress. Despite their success, next-token prediction (NTP), the dominant method for LLM training and inference, is constrained in both contextual coverage and inference efficiency due to its inherently sequential process. To overcome these challenges, we propose leap multi-token prediction~(L-MTP), an innovative token prediction method that extends the capabilities of multi-token prediction (MTP) by introducing a leap-based mechanism. Unlike conventional MTP, which generates multiple tokens at adjacent positions, L-MTP strategically skips over intermediate tokens, predicting non-sequential ones in a single forward pass. This structured leap not only enhances the model's ability to capture long-range dependencies but also enables a decoding strategy specially optimized for non-sequential leap token generation, effectively accelerating inference. We theoretically demonstrate the benefit of L-MTP in improving inference efficiency. Experiments across diverse benchmarks validate its merit in boosting both LLM performance and inference speed. The source code is available at https://github.com/Xiaohao-Liu/L-MTP.

Although autoregressive models have dominated language modeling in recent years, there has been a growing interest in exploring alternative paradigms to the conventional next-token prediction framework. Diffusion-based language models have emerged as a compelling alternative due to their powerful parallel generation capabilities and inherent editability. However, these models are often constrained by fixed-length generation. A promising direction is to combine the strengths of both paradigms, segmenting sequences into blocks, modeling autoregressive dependencies across blocks while leveraging discrete diffusion to estimate the conditional distribution within each block given the preceding context. Nevertheless, their practical application is often hindered by two key limitations: rigid fixed-length outputs and a lack of flexible control mechanisms. In this work, we address the critical limitations of fixed granularity and weak controllability in current large diffusion language models. We propose CtrlDiff, a dynamic and controllable semi-autoregressive framework that adaptively determines the size of each generation block based on local semantics using reinforcement learning. Furthermore, we introduce a classifier-guided control mechanism tailored to discrete diffusion, which significantly reduces computational overhead while facilitating efficient post-hoc conditioning without retraining. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CtrlDiff sets a new standard among hybrid diffusion models, narrows the performance gap to state-of-the-art autoregressive approaches, and enables effective conditional text generation across diverse tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) enhanced with retrieval augmentation has shown great performance in many applications. However, the computational demands for these models pose a challenge when applying them to real-time tasks, such as composition assistance. To address this, we propose Hybrid Retrieval-Augmented Composition Assistance (Hybrid-RACA), a novel system for real-time text prediction that efficiently combines a cloud-based LLM with a smaller client-side model through retrieval augmented memory. This integration enables the client model to generate better responses, benefiting from the LLM's capabilities and cloud-based data. Meanwhile, via a novel asynchronous memory update mechanism, the client model can deliver real-time completions to user inputs without the need to wait for responses from the cloud. Our experiments on five datasets demonstrate that Hybrid-RACA offers strong performance while maintaining low latency.

This paper presents an exhaustive quantitative and qualitative evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) for Knowledge Graph (KG) construction and reasoning. We employ eight distinct datasets that encompass aspects including entity, relation and event extraction, link prediction, and question answering. Empirically, our findings suggest that GPT-4 outperforms ChatGPT in the majority of tasks and even surpasses fine-tuned models in certain reasoning and question-answering datasets. Moreover, our investigation extends to the potential generalization ability of LLMs for information extraction, which culminates in the presentation of the Virtual Knowledge Extraction task and the development of the VINE dataset. Drawing on these empirical findings, we further propose AutoKG, a multi-agent-based approach employing LLMs for KG construction and reasoning, which aims to chart the future of this field and offer exciting opportunities for advancement. We anticipate that our research can provide invaluable insights for future undertakings of KG\footnote{Code and datasets will be available in https://github.com/zjunlp/AutoKG.

Argumentation is one of society's foundational pillars, and, sparked by advances in NLP and the vast availability of text data, automated mining of arguments receives increasing attention. A decisive property of arguments is their strength or quality. While there are works on the automated estimation of argument strength, their scope is narrow: they focus on isolated datasets and neglect the interactions with related argument mining tasks, such as argument identification, evidence detection, or emotional appeal. In this work, we close this gap by approaching argument quality estimation from multiple different angles: Grounded on rich results from thorough empirical evaluations, we assess the generalization capabilities of argument quality estimation across diverse domains, the interplay with related argument mining tasks, and the impact of emotions on perceived argument strength. We find that generalization depends on a sufficient representation of different domains in the training part. In zero-shot transfer and multi-task experiments, we reveal that argument quality is among the more challenging tasks but can improve others. Finally, we show that emotions play a minor role in argument quality than is often assumed.

Motivation: The activity of the adaptive immune system is governed by T-cells and their specific T-cell receptors (TCR), which selectively recognize foreign antigens. Recent advances in experimental techniques have enabled sequencing of TCRs and their antigenic targets (epitopes), allowing to research the missing link between TCR sequence and epitope binding specificity. Scarcity of data and a large sequence space make this task challenging, and to date only models limited to a small set of epitopes have achieved good performance. Here, we establish a k-nearest-neighbor (K-NN) classifier as a strong baseline and then propose TITAN (Tcr epITope bimodal Attention Networks), a bimodal neural network that explicitly encodes both TCR sequences and epitopes to enable the independent study of generalization capabilities to unseen TCRs and/or epitopes. Results: By encoding epitopes at the atomic level with SMILES sequences, we leverage transfer learning and data augmentation to enrich the input data space and boost performance. TITAN achieves high performance in the prediction of specificity of unseen TCRs (ROC-AUC 0.87 in 10-fold CV) and surpasses the results of the current state-of-the-art (ImRex) by a large margin. Notably, our Levenshtein-distance-based K-NN classifier also exhibits competitive performance on unseen TCRs. While the generalization to unseen epitopes remains challenging, we report two major breakthroughs. First, by dissecting the attention heatmaps, we demonstrate that the sparsity of available epitope data favors an implicit treatment of epitopes as classes. This may be a general problem that limits unseen epitope performance for sufficiently complex models. Second, we show that TITAN nevertheless exhibits significantly improved performance on unseen epitopes and is capable of focusing attention on chemically meaningful molecular structures.

We present STanHop-Net (Sparse Tandem Hopfield Network) for multivariate time series prediction with memory-enhanced capabilities. At the heart of our approach is STanHop, a novel Hopfield-based neural network block, which sparsely learns and stores both temporal and cross-series representations in a data-dependent fashion. In essence, STanHop sequentially learn temporal representation and cross-series representation using two tandem sparse Hopfield layers. In addition, StanHop incorporates two additional external memory modules: a Plug-and-Play module and a Tune-and-Play module for train-less and task-aware memory-enhancements, respectively. They allow StanHop-Net to swiftly respond to certain sudden events. Methodologically, we construct the StanHop-Net by stacking STanHop blocks in a hierarchical fashion, enabling multi-resolution feature extraction with resolution-specific sparsity. Theoretically, we introduce a sparse extension of the modern Hopfield model (Generalized Sparse Modern Hopfield Model) and show that it endows a tighter memory retrieval error compared to the dense counterpart without sacrificing memory capacity. Empirically, we validate the efficacy of our framework on both synthetic and real-world settings.

The ability to predict future visual observations conditioned on past observations and motor commands can enable embodied agents to plan solutions to a variety of tasks in complex environments. This work shows that we can create good video prediction models by pre-training transformers via masked visual modeling. Our approach, named MaskViT, is based on two simple design decisions. First, for memory and training efficiency, we use two types of window attention: spatial and spatiotemporal. Second, during training, we mask a variable percentage of tokens instead of a fixed mask ratio. For inference, MaskViT generates all tokens via iterative refinement where we incrementally decrease the masking ratio following a mask scheduling function. On several datasets we demonstrate that MaskViT outperforms prior works in video prediction, is parameter efficient, and can generate high-resolution videos (256x256). Further, we demonstrate the benefits of inference speedup (up to 512x) due to iterative decoding by using MaskViT for planning on a real robot. Our work suggests that we can endow embodied agents with powerful predictive models by leveraging the general framework of masked visual modeling with minimal domain knowledge.

In this white paper we introduce Helix, an AI based solution for missense pathogenicity prediction. With recent advances in the sequencing of human genomes, massive amounts of genetic data have become available. This has shifted the burden of labor for genetic diagnostics and research from the gathering of data to its interpretation. Helix presents a state of the art platform for the prediction of pathogenicity in human missense variants. In addition to offering best-in-class predictive performance, Helix offers a platform that allows researchers to analyze and interpret variants in depth that can be accessed at helixlabs.ai.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

Advances in large language models (LLMs) have empowered a variety of applications. However, there is still a significant gap in research when it comes to understanding and enhancing the capabilities of LLMs in the field of mental health. In this work, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of multiple LLMs, including Alpaca, Alpaca-LoRA, FLAN-T5, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4, on various mental health prediction tasks via online text data. We conduct a broad range of experiments, covering zero-shot prompting, few-shot prompting, and instruction fine-tuning. The results indicate a promising yet limited performance of LLMs with zero-shot and few-shot prompt designs for the mental health tasks. More importantly, our experiments show that instruction finetuning can significantly boost the performance of LLMs for all tasks simultaneously. Our best-finetuned models, Mental-Alpaca and Mental-FLAN-T5, outperform the best prompt design of GPT-3.5 (25 and 15 times bigger) by 10.9% on balanced accuracy and the best of GPT-4 (250 and 150 times bigger) by 4.8%. They further perform on par with the state-of-the-art task-specific language model. We also conduct an exploratory case study on LLMs' capability on the mental health reasoning tasks, illustrating the promising capability of certain models such as GPT-4. We summarize our findings into a set of action guidelines for potential methods to enhance LLMs' capability for mental health tasks. Meanwhile, we also emphasize the important limitations before achieving deployability in real-world mental health settings, such as known racial and gender bias. We highlight the important ethical risks accompanying this line of research.

Spatiotemporal reasoning plays a key role in Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). Despite advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), their capacity to reason about complex spatiotemporal signals remains underexplored. This paper proposes a hierarchical SpatioTemporal reAsoning benchmaRK, STARK, to systematically evaluate LLMs across three levels of reasoning complexity: state estimation (e.g., predicting field variables, localizing and tracking events in space and time), spatiotemporal reasoning over states (e.g., inferring spatial-temporal relationships), and world-knowledge-aware reasoning that integrates contextual and domain knowledge (e.g., intent prediction, landmark-aware navigation). We curate 26 distinct spatiotemporal tasks with diverse sensor modalities, comprising 14,552 challenges where models answer directly or by Python Code Interpreter. Evaluating 3 LRMs and 8 LLMs, we find LLMs achieve limited success in tasks requiring geometric reasoning (e.g., multilateration or triangulation), particularly as complexity increases. Surprisingly, LRMs show robust performance across tasks with various levels of difficulty, often competing or surpassing traditional first-principle-based methods. Our results show that in reasoning tasks requiring world knowledge, the performance gap between LLMs and LRMs narrows, with some LLMs even surpassing LRMs. However, the LRM o3 model continues to achieve leading performance across all evaluated tasks, a result attributed primarily to the larger size of the reasoning models. STARK motivates future innovations in model architectures and reasoning paradigms for intelligent CPS by providing a structured framework to identify limitations in the spatiotemporal reasoning of LLMs and LRMs.

Current approaches to sales conversation analysis and conversion prediction typically rely on Large Language Models (LLMs) combined with basic retrieval augmented generation (RAG). These systems, while capable of answering questions, fail to accurately predict conversion probability or provide strategic guidance in real time. In this paper, we present SalesRLAgent, a novel framework leveraging specialized reinforcement learning to predict conversion probability throughout sales conversations. Unlike systems from Kapa.ai, Mendable, Inkeep, and others that primarily use off-the-shelf LLMs for content generation, our approach treats conversion prediction as a sequential decision problem, training on synthetic data generated using GPT-4O to develop a specialized probability estimation model. Our system incorporates Azure OpenAI embeddings (3072 dimensions), turn-by-turn state tracking, and meta-learning capabilities to understand its own knowledge boundaries. Evaluations demonstrate that SalesRLAgent achieves 96.7% accuracy in conversion prediction, outperforming LLM-only approaches by 34.7% while offering significantly faster inference (85ms vs 3450ms for GPT-4). Furthermore, integration with existing sales platforms shows a 43.2% increase in conversion rates when representatives utilize our system's real-time guidance. SalesRLAgent represents a fundamental shift from content generation to strategic sales intelligence, providing moment-by-moment conversion probability estimation with actionable insights for sales professionals.

Aspect sentiment quadruple prediction (ASQP) facilitates a detailed understanding of opinions expressed in a text by identifying the opinion term, aspect term, aspect category and sentiment polarity for each opinion. However, annotating a full set of training examples to fine-tune models for ASQP is a resource-intensive process. In this study, we explore the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) for zero- and few-shot learning on the ASQP task across five diverse datasets. We report F1 scores slightly below those obtained with state-of-the-art fine-tuned models but exceeding previously reported zero- and few-shot performance. In the 40-shot setting on the Rest16 restaurant domain dataset, LLMs achieved an F1 score of 52.46, compared to 60.39 by the best-performing fine-tuned method MVP. Additionally, we report the performance of LLMs in target aspect sentiment detection (TASD), where the F1 scores were also close to fine-tuned models, achieving 66.03 on Rest16 in the 40-shot setting, compared to 72.76 with MVP. While human annotators remain essential for achieving optimal performance, LLMs can reduce the need for extensive manual annotation in ASQP tasks.

Despite constituting 65% of all internet traffic in 2023, video content is underrepresented in generative AI research. Meanwhile, recent large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly integrated with capabilities in the visual modality. Integrating video with LLMs is a natural next step, so how can this gap be bridged? To advance video reasoning, we propose a new research direction of VideoCOT on video keyframes, which leverages the multimodal generative abilities of vision-language models to enhance video reasoning while reducing the computational complexity of processing hundreds or thousands of frames. We introduce VIP, an inference-time dataset that can be used to evaluate VideoCOT, containing 1) a variety of real-life videos with keyframes and corresponding unstructured and structured scene descriptions, and 2) two new video reasoning tasks: video infilling and scene prediction. We benchmark various vision-language models on VIP, demonstrating the potential to use vision-language models and LLMs to enhance video chain of thought reasoning.

Background: This study aimed to evaluate and compare the performance of classical machine learning models (CMLs) and large language models (LLMs) in predicting mortality associated with COVID-19 by utilizing a high-dimensional tabular dataset. Materials and Methods: We analyzed data from 9,134 COVID-19 patients collected across four hospitals. Seven CML models, including XGBoost and random forest (RF), were trained and evaluated. The structured data was converted into text for zero-shot classification by eight LLMs, including GPT-4 and Mistral-7b. Additionally, Mistral-7b was fine-tuned using the QLoRA approach to enhance its predictive capabilities. Results: Among the CML models, XGBoost and RF achieved the highest accuracy, with F1 scores of 0.87 for internal validation and 0.83 for external validation. In the LLM category, GPT-4 was the top performer with an F1 score of 0.43. Fine-tuning Mistral-7b significantly improved its recall from 1% to 79%, resulting in an F1 score of 0.74, which was stable during external validation. Conclusion: While LLMs show moderate performance in zero-shot classification, fine-tuning can significantly enhance their effectiveness, potentially aligning them closer to CML models. However, CMLs still outperform LLMs in high-dimensional tabular data tasks.

Autoregressive next token prediction language models offer powerful capabilities but face significant challenges in practical deployment due to the high computational and memory costs of inference, particularly during the decoding stage. We introduce Set Block Decoding (SBD), a simple and flexible paradigm that accelerates generation by integrating standard next token prediction (NTP) and masked token prediction (MATP) within a single architecture. SBD allows the model to sample multiple, not necessarily consecutive, future tokens in parallel, a key distinction from previous acceleration methods. This flexibility allows the use of advanced solvers from the discrete diffusion literature, offering significant speedups without sacrificing accuracy. SBD requires no architectural changes or extra training hyperparameters, maintains compatibility with exact KV-caching, and can be implemented by fine-tuning existing next token prediction models. By fine-tuning Llama-3.1 8B and Qwen-3 8B, we demonstrate that SBD enables a 3-5x reduction in the number of forward passes required for generation while achieving same performance as equivalent NTP training.

Virtual cell modeling represents an emerging frontier at the intersection of artificial intelligence and biology, aiming to predict quantities such as responses to diverse perturbations quantitatively. However, autonomously building computational models for virtual cells is challenging due to the complexity of biological systems, the heterogeneity of data modalities, and the need for domain-specific expertise across multiple disciplines. Here, we introduce CellForge, an agentic system that leverages a multi-agent framework that transforms presented biological datasets and research objectives directly into optimized computational models for virtual cells. More specifically, given only raw single-cell multi-omics data and task descriptions as input, CellForge outputs both an optimized model architecture and executable code for training virtual cell models and inference. The framework integrates three core modules: Task Analysis for presented dataset characterization and relevant literature retrieval, Method Design, where specialized agents collaboratively develop optimized modeling strategies, and Experiment Execution for automated generation of code. The agents in the Design module are separated into experts with differing perspectives and a central moderator, and have to collaboratively exchange solutions until they achieve a reasonable consensus. We demonstrate CellForge's capabilities in single-cell perturbation prediction, using six diverse datasets that encompass gene knockouts, drug treatments, and cytokine stimulations across multiple modalities. CellForge consistently outperforms task-specific state-of-the-art methods. Overall, CellForge demonstrates how iterative interaction between LLM agents with differing perspectives provides better solutions than directly addressing a modeling challenge. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/gersteinlab/CellForge.

Software testing and verification are critical for ensuring the reliability and security of modern software systems. Traditionally, formal verification techniques, such as model checking and theorem proving, have provided rigorous frameworks for detecting bugs and vulnerabilities. However, these methods often face scalability challenges when applied to complex, real-world programs. Recently, the advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) has introduced a new paradigm for software analysis, leveraging their ability to understand insecure coding practices. Although LLMs demonstrate promising capabilities in tasks such as bug prediction and invariant generation, they lack the formal guarantees of classical methods. This paper presents a comprehensive study of state-of-the-art software testing and verification, focusing on three key approaches: classical formal methods, LLM-based analysis, and emerging hybrid techniques, which combine their strengths. We explore each approach's strengths, limitations, and practical applications, highlighting the potential of hybrid systems to address the weaknesses of standalone methods. We analyze whether integrating formal rigor with LLM-driven insights can enhance the effectiveness and scalability of software verification, exploring their viability as a pathway toward more robust and adaptive testing frameworks.

Machine Translation (MT) has been predominantly designed for sentence-level translation using transformer-based architectures. While next-token prediction based Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate strong capabilities in long-text translation, non-extensive language models often suffer from omissions and semantic inconsistencies when processing paragraphs. Existing preference alignment methods improve sentence-level translation but fail to ensure coherence over extended contexts due to the myopic nature of next-token generation. We introduce Plan2Align, a test-time alignment framework that treats translation as a predictive planning problem, adapting Model Predictive Control to iteratively refine translation outputs. Experiments on WMT24 Discourse-Level Literary Translation show that Plan2Align significantly improves paragraph-level translation, achieving performance surpassing or on par with the existing training-time and test-time alignment methods on LLaMA-3.1 8B.

We present memory-based language modeling as an efficient, eco-friendly alternative to deep neural network-based language modeling. It offers log-linearly scalable next-token prediction performance and strong memorization capabilities. Implementing fast approximations of k-nearest neighbor classification, memory-based language modeling leaves a relatively small ecological footprint both in training and in inference mode, as it relies fully on CPUs and attains low token latencies. Its internal workings are simple and fully transparent. We compare our implementation of memory-based language modeling, OLIFANT, with GPT-2 and GPT-Neo on next-token prediction accuracy, estimated emissions and speeds, and offer some deeper analyses of the model.

Recent advancements in large multimodal models have led to the emergence of remarkable generalist capabilities in digital domains, yet their translation to physical agents such as robots remains a significant challenge. This report introduces a new family of AI models purposefully designed for robotics and built upon the foundation of Gemini 2.0. We present Gemini Robotics, an advanced Vision-Language-Action (VLA) generalist model capable of directly controlling robots. Gemini Robotics executes smooth and reactive movements to tackle a wide range of complex manipulation tasks while also being robust to variations in object types and positions, handling unseen environments as well as following diverse, open vocabulary instructions. We show that with additional fine-tuning, Gemini Robotics can be specialized to new capabilities including solving long-horizon, highly dexterous tasks, learning new short-horizon tasks from as few as 100 demonstrations and adapting to completely novel robot embodiments. This is made possible because Gemini Robotics builds on top of the Gemini Robotics-ER model, the second model we introduce in this work. Gemini Robotics-ER (Embodied Reasoning) extends Gemini's multimodal reasoning capabilities into the physical world, with enhanced spatial and temporal understanding. This enables capabilities relevant to robotics including object detection, pointing, trajectory and grasp prediction, as well as multi-view correspondence and 3D bounding box predictions. We show how this novel combination can support a variety of robotics applications. We also discuss and address important safety considerations related to this new class of robotics foundation models. The Gemini Robotics family marks a substantial step towards developing general-purpose robots that realizes AI's potential in the physical world.

We present 3DiffTection, a state-of-the-art method for 3D object detection from single images, leveraging features from a 3D-aware diffusion model. Annotating large-scale image data for 3D detection is resource-intensive and time-consuming. Recently, pretrained large image diffusion models have become prominent as effective feature extractors for 2D perception tasks. However, these features are initially trained on paired text and image data, which are not optimized for 3D tasks, and often exhibit a domain gap when applied to the target data. Our approach bridges these gaps through two specialized tuning strategies: geometric and semantic. For geometric tuning, we fine-tune a diffusion model to perform novel view synthesis conditioned on a single image, by introducing a novel epipolar warp operator. This task meets two essential criteria: the necessity for 3D awareness and reliance solely on posed image data, which are readily available (e.g., from videos) and does not require manual annotation. For semantic refinement, we further train the model on target data with detection supervision. Both tuning phases employ ControlNet to preserve the integrity of the original feature capabilities. In the final step, we harness these enhanced capabilities to conduct a test-time prediction ensemble across multiple virtual viewpoints. Through our methodology, we obtain 3D-aware features that are tailored for 3D detection and excel in identifying cross-view point correspondences. Consequently, our model emerges as a powerful 3D detector, substantially surpassing previous benchmarks, e.g., Cube-RCNN, a precedent in single-view 3D detection by 9.43\% in AP3D on the Omni3D-ARkitscene dataset. Furthermore, 3DiffTection showcases robust data efficiency and generalization to cross-domain data.

The autonomous AI agents using large language models can create undeniable values in all span of the society but they face security threats from adversaries that warrants immediate protective solutions because trust and safety issues arise. Considering the many-shot jailbreaking and deceptive alignment as some of the main advanced attacks, that cannot be mitigated by the static guardrails used during the supervised training, points out a crucial research priority for real world robustness. The combination of static guardrails in dynamic multi-agent system fails to defend against those attacks. We intend to enhance security for LLM-based agents through the development of new evaluation frameworks which identify and counter threats for safe operational deployment. Our work uses three examination methods to detect rogue agents through a Reverse Turing Test and analyze deceptive alignment through multi-agent simulations and develops an anti-jailbreaking system by testing it with GEMINI 1.5 pro and llama-3.3-70B, deepseek r1 models using tool-mediated adversarial scenarios. The detection capabilities are strong such as 94\% accuracy for GEMINI 1.5 pro yet the system suffers persistent vulnerabilities when under long attacks as prompt length increases attack success rates (ASR) and diversity metrics become ineffective in prediction while revealing multiple complex system faults. The findings demonstrate the necessity of adopting flexible security systems based on active monitoring that can be performed by the agents themselves together with adaptable interventions by system admin as the current models can create vulnerabilities that can lead to the unreliable and vulnerable system. So, in our work, we try to address such situations and propose a comprehensive framework to counteract the security issues.

Modern machine learning requires system designers to specify aspects of the learning pipeline, such as losses, architectures, and optimizers. Meta-learning, or learning-to-learn, instead aims to learn those aspects, and promises to unlock greater capabilities with less manual effort. One particularly ambitious goal of meta-learning is to train general-purpose in-context learning algorithms from scratch, using only black-box models with minimal inductive bias. Such a model takes in training data, and produces test-set predictions across a wide range of problems, without any explicit definition of an inference model, training loss, or optimization algorithm. In this paper we show that Transformers and other black-box models can be meta-trained to act as general-purpose in-context learners. We characterize transitions between algorithms that generalize, algorithms that memorize, and algorithms that fail to meta-train at all, induced by changes in model size, number of tasks, and meta-optimization. We further show that the capabilities of meta-trained algorithms are bottlenecked by the accessible state size (memory) determining the next prediction, unlike standard models which are thought to be bottlenecked by parameter count. Finally, we propose practical interventions such as biasing the training distribution that improve the meta-training and meta-generalization of general-purpose in-context learning algorithms.

This thesis provides methods and analysis of models which make progress on this goal. The techniques outlined are task agnostic, and should provide benefit when used with nearly any transformer LM. We introduce two new finetuning methods which add new capabilities to the models they are used on. The first adds a recurrence mechanism, which removes the fixed-window sized constraint and improves the efficiency of a transformer decoder. The second allows masked language models (MLMs) to be used for initialization of both the encoder and decoder of a non-autoregressive sequence-to-sequence transformer, opening up generative applications of models which were previously only used for natural language understanding tasks. We also introduce two new techniques for improving the quality of predictions of any transformer decoder without additional finetuning. One, hidden state optimization, can be applied to any transformer decoder to improve the quality of predictions at inference time, especially for few-shot classification. The other, conditional beam search, allows practitioners to search for natural language generation (NLG) model outputs with high likelihood while conditioning on the event that the output is not degenerate (e.g. empty, repetitive, etc.). Finally, we provide theoretical and empirical insights on the divergence of model-likelihood and output quality which has widely been observed in prior work. These insights apply to any model which represents a distribution over text, and apply to language models which are not transformers or even autoregressive. We argue that the NLP community has, to some extent, misunderstood the implications of these findings, and encourage a point of view which has more nuance.

This paper presents a novel approach that enables autoregressive video generation with high efficiency. We propose to reformulate the video generation problem as a non-quantized autoregressive modeling of temporal frame-by-frame prediction and spatial set-by-set prediction. Unlike raster-scan prediction in prior autoregressive models or joint distribution modeling of fixed-length tokens in diffusion models, our approach maintains the causal property of GPT-style models for flexible in-context capabilities, while leveraging bidirectional modeling within individual frames for efficiency. With the proposed approach, we train a novel video autoregressive model without vector quantization, termed NOVA. Our results demonstrate that NOVA surpasses prior autoregressive video models in data efficiency, inference speed, visual fidelity, and video fluency, even with a much smaller model capacity, i.e., 0.6B parameters. NOVA also outperforms state-of-the-art image diffusion models in text-to-image generation tasks, with a significantly lower training cost. Additionally, NOVA generalizes well across extended video durations and enables diverse zero-shot applications in one unified model. Code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/baaivision/NOVA.

Data scarcity remains one of the most limiting factors in driving progress in robotics. However, the amount of available robotics data in the wild is growing exponentially, creating new opportunities for large-scale data utilization. Reliable temporal task completion prediction could help automatically annotate and curate this data at scale. The Generative Value Learning (GVL) approach was recently proposed, leveraging the knowledge embedded in vision-language models (VLMs) to predict task progress from visual observations. Building upon GVL, we propose OpenGVL, a comprehensive benchmark for estimating task progress across diverse challenging manipulation tasks involving both robotic and human embodiments. We evaluate the capabilities of publicly available open-source foundation models, showing that open-source model families significantly underperform closed-source counterparts, achieving only approximately 70% of their performance on temporal progress prediction tasks. Furthermore, we demonstrate how OpenGVL can serve as a practical tool for automated data curation and filtering, enabling efficient quality assessment of large-scale robotics datasets. We release the benchmark along with the complete codebase at github.com/budzianowski/opengvl{OpenGVL}.

Recently, large multimodal models, such as CLIP and Stable Diffusion have experimented tremendous successes in both foundations and applications. However, as these models increase in parameter size and computational requirements, it becomes more challenging for users to personalize them for specific tasks or preferences. In this work, we address the problem of adapting the previous models towards sets of particular human preferences, aligning the retrieved or generated images with the preferences of the user. We leverage the Bradley-Terry preference model to develop a fast adaptation method that efficiently fine-tunes the original model, with few examples and with minimal computing resources. Extensive evidence of the capabilities of this framework is provided through experiments in different domains related to multimodal text and image understanding, including preference prediction as a reward model, and generation tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable potential in various domains, but they often lack the ability to access and reason over domain-specific knowledge and tools. In this paper, we introduced CACTUS (Chemistry Agent Connecting Tool-Usage to Science), an LLM-based agent that integrates cheminformatics tools to enable advanced reasoning and problem-solving in chemistry and molecular discovery. We evaluate the performance of CACTUS using a diverse set of open-source LLMs, including Gemma-7b, Falcon-7b, MPT-7b, Llama2-7b, and Mistral-7b, on a benchmark of thousands of chemistry questions. Our results demonstrate that CACTUS significantly outperforms baseline LLMs, with the Gemma-7b and Mistral-7b models achieving the highest accuracy regardless of the prompting strategy used. Moreover, we explore the impact of domain-specific prompting and hardware configurations on model performance, highlighting the importance of prompt engineering and the potential for deploying smaller models on consumer-grade hardware without significant loss in accuracy. By combining the cognitive capabilities of open-source LLMs with domain-specific tools, CACTUS can assist researchers in tasks such as molecular property prediction, similarity searching, and drug-likeness assessment. Furthermore, CACTUS represents a significant milestone in the field of cheminformatics, offering an adaptable tool for researchers engaged in chemistry and molecular discovery. By integrating the strengths of open-source LLMs with domain-specific tools, CACTUS has the potential to accelerate scientific advancement and unlock new frontiers in the exploration of novel, effective, and safe therapeutic candidates, catalysts, and materials. Moreover, CACTUS's ability to integrate with automated experimentation platforms and make data-driven decisions in real time opens up new possibilities for autonomous discovery.

This paper introduces FunASR, an open-source speech recognition toolkit designed to bridge the gap between academic research and industrial applications. FunASR offers models trained on large-scale industrial corpora and the ability to deploy them in applications. The toolkit's flagship model, Paraformer, is a non-autoregressive end-to-end speech recognition model that has been trained on a manually annotated Mandarin speech recognition dataset that contains 60,000 hours of speech. To improve the performance of Paraformer, we have added timestamp prediction and hotword customization capabilities to the standard Paraformer backbone. In addition, to facilitate model deployment, we have open-sourced a voice activity detection model based on the Feedforward Sequential Memory Network (FSMN-VAD) and a text post-processing punctuation model based on the controllable time-delay Transformer (CT-Transformer), both of which were trained on industrial corpora. These functional modules provide a solid foundation for building high-precision long audio speech recognition services. Compared to other models trained on open datasets, Paraformer demonstrates superior performance.

The rapid advancements in computing dramatically increase the scale and cost of training Large Language Models (LLMs). Accurately predicting downstream task performance prior to model training is crucial for efficient resource allocation, yet remains challenging due to two primary constraints: (1) the "emergence phenomenon", wherein downstream performance metrics become meaningful only after extensive training, which limits the ability to use smaller models for prediction; (2) Uneven task difficulty distributions and the absence of consistent scaling laws, resulting in substantial metric variability. Existing performance prediction methods suffer from limited accuracy and reliability, thereby impeding the assessment of potential LLM capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) downstream performance prediction framework. COD first constructs a predictable support subset by clustering tasks based on difficulty features, strategically excluding non-emergent and non-scalable clusters. The scores on the selected subset serve as effective intermediate predictors of downstream performance on the full evaluation set. With theoretical support, we derive a mapping function that transforms performance metrics from the predictable subset to the full evaluation set, thereby ensuring accurate extrapolation of LLM downstream performance. The proposed method has been applied to predict performance scaling for a 70B LLM, providing actionable insights for training resource allocation and assisting in monitoring the training process. Notably, COD achieves remarkable predictive accuracy on the 70B LLM by leveraging an ensemble of small models, demonstrating an absolute mean deviation of 1.36% across eight important LLM evaluation benchmarks.

State-of-the-art visual perception models for a wide range of tasks rely on supervised pretraining. ImageNet classification is the de facto pretraining task for these models. Yet, ImageNet is now nearly ten years old and is by modern standards "small". Even so, relatively little is known about the behavior of pretraining with datasets that are multiple orders of magnitude larger. The reasons are obvious: such datasets are difficult to collect and annotate. In this paper, we present a unique study of transfer learning with large convolutional networks trained to predict hashtags on billions of social media images. Our experiments demonstrate that training for large-scale hashtag prediction leads to excellent results. We show improvements on several image classification and object detection tasks, and report the highest ImageNet-1k single-crop, top-1 accuracy to date: 85.4% (97.6% top-5). We also perform extensive experiments that provide novel empirical data on the relationship between large-scale pretraining and transfer learning performance.

Diffusion Large Language Models (dLLMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive (AR) LLMs for text generation, with the potential to decode multiple tokens in a single iteration. However, none of the existing open-source dLLMs have achieved superior inference speed over AR LLMs of similar size. This paper breaks this barrier based on a simple and effective strategy named discrete diffusion forcing (D2F). D2F equips dLLMs with two key capabilities: (1) block-wise autoregressive generation to enable KV cache utilization; (2) prediction of following tokens without requiring completion of prior blocks for inter-block parallel decoding. In this way, the vanilla dLLMs are refurbished into an AR-diffusion hybrid paradigm for efficient inference. D2F can be implemented with an asymmetric distillation process based on pre-trained dLLMs. We further propose a pipelined parallel decoding algorithm, which enables a trade-off between efficiency and efficacy. Empirically, D2F dLLMs achieve more than 2.5times inference speed than LLaMA3 and Qwen2.5 on GSM8K. Compared to vanilla dLLMs like LLaDA and Dream, the acceleration can be more than 50times while maintaining comparable output quality. The code is available at https://github.com/zhijie-group/Discrete-Diffusion-Forcing.

Can machines truly think, reason and act in domains like humans? This enduring question continues to shape the pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Despite the growing capabilities of models such as GPT-4.5, DeepSeek, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Phi-4, and Grok 3, which exhibit multimodal fluency and partial reasoning, these systems remain fundamentally limited by their reliance on token-level prediction and lack of grounded agency. This paper offers a cross-disciplinary synthesis of AGI development, spanning artificial intelligence, cognitive neuroscience, psychology, generative models, and agent-based systems. We analyze the architectural and cognitive foundations of general intelligence, highlighting the role of modular reasoning, persistent memory, and multi-agent coordination. In particular, we emphasize the rise of Agentic RAG frameworks that combine retrieval, planning, and dynamic tool use to enable more adaptive behavior. We discuss generalization strategies, including information compression, test-time adaptation, and training-free methods, as critical pathways toward flexible, domain-agnostic intelligence. Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are reexamined not just as perception modules but as evolving interfaces for embodied understanding and collaborative task completion. We also argue that true intelligence arises not from scale alone but from the integration of memory and reasoning: an orchestration of modular, interactive, and self-improving components where compression enables adaptive behavior. Drawing on advances in neurosymbolic systems, reinforcement learning, and cognitive scaffolding, we explore how recent architectures begin to bridge the gap between statistical learning and goal-directed cognition. Finally, we identify key scientific, technical, and ethical challenges on the path to AGI.

Large language models like GPT-4 exhibit emergent capabilities across general-purpose tasks, such as basic arithmetic, when trained on extensive text data, even though these tasks are not explicitly encoded by the unsupervised, next-token prediction objective. This study investigates how small transformers, trained from random initialization, can efficiently learn arithmetic operations such as addition, multiplication, and elementary functions like square root, using the next-token prediction objective. We first demonstrate that conventional training data is not the most effective for arithmetic learning, and simple formatting changes can significantly improve accuracy. This leads to sharp phase transitions as a function of training data scale, which, in some cases, can be explained through connections to low-rank matrix completion. Building on prior work, we then train on chain-of-thought style data that includes intermediate step results. Even in the complete absence of pretraining, this approach significantly and simultaneously improves accuracy, sample complexity, and convergence speed. We also study the interplay between arithmetic and text data during training and examine the effects of few-shot prompting, pretraining, and model scale. Additionally, we discuss length generalization challenges. Our work highlights the importance of high-quality, instructive data that considers the particular characteristics of the next-word prediction objective for rapidly eliciting arithmetic capabilities.

Accurate stock market predictions following earnings reports are crucial for investors. Traditional methods, particularly classical machine learning models, struggle with these predictions because they cannot effectively process and interpret extensive textual data contained in earnings reports and often overlook nuances that influence market movements. This paper introduces an advanced approach by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) instruction fine-tuned with a novel combination of instruction-based techniques and quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) compression. Our methodology integrates 'base factors', such as financial metric growth and earnings transcripts, with 'external factors', including recent market indices performances and analyst grades, to create a rich, supervised dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables our models to achieve superior predictive performance in terms of accuracy, weighted F1, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), especially evident in the comparison with benchmarks such as GPT-4. We specifically highlight the efficacy of the llama-3-8b-Instruct-4bit model, which showcases significant improvements over baseline models. The paper also discusses the potential of expanding the output capabilities to include a 'Hold' option and extending the prediction horizon, aiming to accommodate various investment styles and time frames. This study not only demonstrates the power of integrating cutting-edge AI with fine-tuned financial data but also paves the way for future research in enhancing AI-driven financial analysis tools.

If human experience is any guide, operating effectively in unstructured environments -- like homes and offices -- requires robots to sense the forces during physical interaction. Yet, the lack of a versatile, accessible, and easily customizable tactile sensor has led to fragmented, sensor-specific solutions in robotic manipulation -- and in many cases, to force-unaware, sensorless approaches. With eFlesh, we bridge this gap by introducing a magnetic tactile sensor that is low-cost, easy to fabricate, and highly customizable. Building an eFlesh sensor requires only four components: a hobbyist 3D printer, off-the-shelf magnets (<$5), a CAD model of the desired shape, and a magnetometer circuit board. The sensor is constructed from tiled, parameterized microstructures, which allow for tuning the sensor's geometry and its mechanical response. We provide an open-source design tool that converts convex OBJ/STL files into 3D-printable STLs for fabrication. This modular design framework enables users to create application-specific sensors, and to adjust sensitivity depending on the task. Our sensor characterization experiments demonstrate the capabilities of eFlesh: contact localization RMSE of 0.5 mm, and force prediction RMSE of 0.27 N for normal force and 0.12 N for shear force. We also present a learned slip detection model that generalizes to unseen objects with 95% accuracy, and visuotactile control policies that improve manipulation performance by 40% over vision-only baselines -- achieving 91% average success rate for four precise tasks that require sub-mm accuracy for successful completion. All design files, code and the CAD-to-eFlesh STL conversion tool are open-sourced and available on https://e-flesh.com.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly advanced the fact-checking studies. However, existing automated fact-checking evaluation methods rely on static datasets and classification metrics, which fail to automatically evaluate the justification production and uncover the nuanced limitations of LLMs in fact-checking. In this work, we introduce FACT-AUDIT, an agent-driven framework that adaptively and dynamically assesses LLMs' fact-checking capabilities. Leveraging importance sampling principles and multi-agent collaboration, FACT-AUDIT generates adaptive and scalable datasets, performs iterative model-centric evaluations, and updates assessments based on model-specific responses. By incorporating justification production alongside verdict prediction, this framework provides a comprehensive and evolving audit of LLMs' factual reasoning capabilities, to investigate their trustworthiness. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FACT-AUDIT effectively differentiates among state-of-the-art LLMs, providing valuable insights into model strengths and limitations in model-centric fact-checking analysis.

In this work we introduce RITA: a suite of autoregressive generative models for protein sequences, with up to 1.2 billion parameters, trained on over 280 million protein sequences belonging to the UniRef-100 database. Such generative models hold the promise of greatly accelerating protein design. We conduct the first systematic study of how capabilities evolve with model size for autoregressive transformers in the protein domain: we evaluate RITA models in next amino acid prediction, zero-shot fitness, and enzyme function prediction, showing benefits from increased scale. We release the RITA models openly, to the benefit of the research community.

Pretraining language models with next-token prediction on massive text corpora has delivered phenomenal zero-shot, few-shot, transfer learning and multi-tasking capabilities on both generative and discriminative language tasks. Motivated by this success, we explore a Vector-quantized Image Modeling (VIM) approach that involves pretraining a Transformer to predict rasterized image tokens autoregressively. The discrete image tokens are encoded from a learned Vision-Transformer-based VQGAN (ViT-VQGAN). We first propose multiple improvements over vanilla VQGAN from architecture to codebook learning, yielding better efficiency and reconstruction fidelity. The improved ViT-VQGAN further improves vector-quantized image modeling tasks, including unconditional, class-conditioned image generation and unsupervised representation learning. When trained on ImageNet at \(256\times256\) resolution, we achieve Inception Score (IS) of 175.1 and Fr'echet Inception Distance (FID) of 4.17, a dramatic improvement over the vanilla VQGAN, which obtains 70.6 and 17.04 for IS and FID, respectively. Based on ViT-VQGAN and unsupervised pretraining, we further evaluate the pretrained Transformer by averaging intermediate features, similar to Image GPT (iGPT). This ImageNet-pretrained VIM-L significantly beats iGPT-L on linear-probe accuracy from 60.3% to 73.2% for a similar model size. VIM-L also outperforms iGPT-XL which is trained with extra web image data and larger model size.

Learning an agent model that behaves like humans-capable of jointly perceiving the environment, predicting the future, and taking actions from a first-person perspective-is a fundamental challenge in computer vision. Existing methods typically train separate models for these abilities, which fail to capture their intrinsic relationships and prevent them from learning from each other. Inspired by how humans learn through the perception-action loop, we propose EgoAgent, a unified agent model that simultaneously learns to represent, predict, and act within a single transformer. EgoAgent explicitly models the causal and temporal dependencies among these abilities by formulating the task as an interleaved sequence of states and actions. It further introduces a joint embedding-action-prediction architecture with temporally asymmetric predictor and observer branches, enabling synergistic optimization across all three capabilities. Comprehensive evaluations of EgoAgent on representative tasks such as image classification, egocentric future state prediction, and 3D human motion prediction demonstrate the superiority of our method. The code and trained models will be publicly available at https://github.com/zju3dv/EgoAgent.

Deep learning techniques are increasingly applied to scientific problems, where the precision of networks is crucial. Despite being deemed as universal function approximators, neural networks, in practice, struggle to reduce the prediction errors below O(10^{-5}) even with large network size and extended training iterations. To address this issue, we developed the multi-stage neural networks that divides the training process into different stages, with each stage using a new network that is optimized to fit the residue from the previous stage. Across successive stages, the residue magnitudes decreases substantially and follows an inverse power-law relationship with the residue frequencies. The multi-stage neural networks effectively mitigate the spectral biases associated with regular neural networks, enabling them to capture the high frequency feature of target functions. We demonstrate that the prediction error from the multi-stage training for both regression problems and physics-informed neural networks can nearly reach the machine-precision O(10^{-16}) of double-floating point within a finite number of iterations. Such levels of accuracy are rarely attainable using single neural networks alone.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Larger language models (LLMs) have taken the world by storm with their massive multi-tasking capabilities simply by optimizing over a next-word prediction objective. With the emergence of their properties and encoded knowledge, the risk of LLMs producing harmful outputs increases, making them unfit for scalable deployment for the public. In this work, we propose a new safety evaluation benchmark RED-EVAL that carries out red-teaming. We show that even widely deployed models are susceptible to the Chain of Utterances-based (CoU) prompting, jailbreaking closed source LLM-based systems such as GPT-4 and ChatGPT to unethically respond to more than 65% and 73% of harmful queries. We also demonstrate the consistency of the RED-EVAL across 8 open-source LLMs in generating harmful responses in more than 86% of the red-teaming attempts. Next, we propose RED-INSTRUCT--An approach for the safety alignment of LLMs. It constitutes two phases: 1) HARMFULQA data collection: Leveraging CoU prompting, we collect a dataset that consists of 1.9K harmful questions covering a wide range of topics, 9.5K safe and 7.3K harmful conversations from ChatGPT; 2) SAFE-ALIGN: We demonstrate how the conversational dataset can be used for the safety alignment of LLMs by minimizing the negative log-likelihood over helpful responses and penalizing over harmful responses by gradient accent over sample loss. Our model STARLING, a fine-tuned Vicuna-7B, is observed to be more safely aligned when evaluated on RED-EVAL and HHH benchmarks while preserving the utility of the baseline models (TruthfulQA, MMLU, and BBH).

In-context learning (ICL) is one of the most powerful and most unexpected capabilities to emerge in recent transformer-based large language models (LLMs). Yet the mechanisms that underlie it are poorly understood. In this paper, we demonstrate that comparable ICL capabilities can be acquired by an alternative sequence prediction learning method using clone-structured causal graphs (CSCGs). Moreover, a key property of CSCGs is that, unlike transformer-based LLMs, they are {\em interpretable}, which considerably simplifies the task of explaining how ICL works. Specifically, we show that it uses a combination of (a) learning template (schema) circuits for pattern completion, (b) retrieving relevant templates in a context-sensitive manner, and (c) rebinding of novel tokens to appropriate slots in the templates. We go on to marshall evidence for the hypothesis that similar mechanisms underlie ICL in LLMs. For example, we find that, with CSCGs as with LLMs, different capabilities emerge at different levels of overparameterization, suggesting that overparameterization helps in learning more complex template (schema) circuits. By showing how ICL can be achieved with small models and datasets, we open up a path to novel architectures, and take a vital step towards a more general understanding of the mechanics behind this important capability.

The recent performance leap of Large Language Models (LLMs) opens up new opportunities across numerous industrial applications and domains. However, erroneous generations, such as false predictions, misinformation, and hallucination made by LLMs, have also raised severe concerns for the trustworthiness of LLMs', especially in safety-, security- and reliability-sensitive scenarios, potentially hindering real-world adoptions. While uncertainty estimation has shown its potential for interpreting the prediction risks made by general machine learning (ML) models, little is known about whether and to what extent it can help explore an LLM's capabilities and counteract its undesired behavior. To bridge the gap, in this paper, we initiate an exploratory study on the risk assessment of LLMs from the lens of uncertainty. In particular, we experiment with twelve uncertainty estimation methods and four LLMs on four prominent natural language processing (NLP) tasks to investigate to what extent uncertainty estimation techniques could help characterize the prediction risks of LLMs. Our findings validate the effectiveness of uncertainty estimation for revealing LLMs' uncertain/non-factual predictions. In addition to general NLP tasks, we extensively conduct experiments with four LLMs for code generation on two datasets. We find that uncertainty estimation can potentially uncover buggy programs generated by LLMs. Insights from our study shed light on future design and development for reliable LLMs, facilitating further research toward enhancing the trustworthiness of LLMs.

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.

Large language models have already demonstrated their formidable capabilities in general domains, ushering in a revolutionary transformation. However, exploring and exploiting the extensive knowledge of these models to comprehend multi-omics biology remains underexplored. To fill this research gap, we first introduce Biology-Instructions, the first large-scale multi-omics biological sequences-related instruction-tuning dataset including DNA, RNA, proteins, and multi-molecules, designed to bridge the gap between large language models (LLMs) and complex biological sequences-related tasks. This dataset can enhance the versatility of LLMs by integrating diverse biological sequenced-based prediction tasks with advanced reasoning capabilities, while maintaining conversational fluency. Additionally, we reveal significant performance limitations in even state-of-the-art LLMs on biological sequence-related multi-omics tasks without specialized pre-training and instruction-tuning. We further develop a strong baseline called ChatMultiOmics with a novel three-stage training pipeline, demonstrating the powerful ability to understand biology by using Biology-Instructions. Biology-Instructions and ChatMultiOmics are publicly available and crucial resources for enabling more effective integration of LLMs with multi-omics sequence analysis.

Antibodies are crucial proteins produced by the immune system to eliminate harmful foreign substances and have become pivotal therapeutic agents for treating human diseases. To accelerate the discovery of antibody therapeutics, there is growing interest in constructing language models using antibody sequences. However, the applicability of pre-trained language models for antibody discovery has not been thoroughly evaluated due to the scarcity of labeled datasets. To overcome these limitations, we introduce AVIDa-SARS-CoV-2, a dataset featuring the antigen-variable domain of heavy chain of heavy chain antibody (VHH) interactions obtained from two alpacas immunized with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike proteins. AVIDa-SARS-CoV-2 includes binary labels indicating the binding or non-binding of diverse VHH sequences to 12 SARS-CoV-2 mutants, such as the Delta and Omicron variants. Furthermore, we release VHHCorpus-2M, a pre-training dataset for antibody language models, containing over two million VHH sequences. We report benchmark results for predicting SARS-CoV-2-VHH binding using VHHBERT pre-trained on VHHCorpus-2M and existing general protein and antibody-specific pre-trained language models. These results confirm that AVIDa-SARS-CoV-2 provides valuable benchmarks for evaluating the representation capabilities of antibody language models for binding prediction, thereby facilitating the development of AI-driven antibody discovery. The datasets are available at https://datasets.cognanous.com.

In this work, we explore whether the recently demonstrated zero-shot abilities of the T0 model extend to Named Entity Recognition for out-of-distribution languages and time periods. Using a historical newspaper corpus in 3 languages as test-bed, we use prompts to extract possible named entities. Our results show that a naive approach for prompt-based zero-shot multilingual Named Entity Recognition is error-prone, but highlights the potential of such an approach for historical languages lacking labeled datasets. Moreover, we also find that T0-like models can be probed to predict the publication date and language of a document, which could be very relevant for the study of historical texts.

We present a unified, promptable model capable of simultaneously segmenting, recognizing, and captioning anything. Unlike SAM, we aim to build a versatile region representation in the wild via visual prompting. To achieve this, we train a generalizable model with massive segmentation masks, e.g., SA-1B masks, and semantic priors from a pre-trained CLIP model with 5 billion parameters. Specifically, we construct a promptable image decoder by adding a semantic token to each mask token. The semantic token is responsible for learning the semantic priors in a predefined concept space. Through joint optimization of segmentation on mask tokens and concept prediction on semantic tokens, our model exhibits strong regional recognition and localization capabilities. For example, an additional 38M-parameter causal text decoder trained from scratch sets a new record with a CIDEr score of 150.7 on the Visual Genome region captioning task. We believe this model can be a versatile region-level image tokenizer, capable of encoding general-purpose region context for a broad range of perception tasks. Code and models are available at https://github.com/baaivision/tokenize-anything.

We investigate whether the pre-trained knowledge of vision-language models (VLMs), such as CLIP, can be retained or even enhanced during continual learning (CL) while absorbing knowledge from a data stream. Existing methods often rely on additional reference data, isolated components for distribution or domain predictions, leading to high training costs, increased inference complexity, and limited improvement potential for pre-trained models. To address these challenges, we first comprehensively analyze the effects of parameter update locations and ranks on downstream adaptation and knowledge retention. Based on these insights, we propose Dynamic Rank-Selective Low Rank Adaptation (LoRA), a universal and efficient CL approach that adaptively assigns ranks to LoRA modules based on their relevance to the current data. Unlike prior methods, our approach continually enhances the pre-trained VLM by retaining both the pre-trained knowledge and the knowledge acquired during CL. Our approach eliminates the need for explicit domain or distribution prediction and additional reference data, enabling seamless integration of new tasks while preserving pre-trained capabilities. It also maintains the original architecture and deployment pipeline of the pre-trained model without incurring any additional inference overhead. Extensive experiments and analyses demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in continually absorbing knowledge of downstream tasks while retaining pre-trained knowledge.

This paper shows that the autoregressive model is an effective and scalable monocular depth estimator. Our idea is simple: We tackle the monocular depth estimation (MDE) task with an autoregressive prediction paradigm, based on two core designs. First, our depth autoregressive model (DAR) treats the depth map of different resolutions as a set of tokens, and conducts the low-to-high resolution autoregressive objective with a patch-wise casual mask. Second, our DAR recursively discretizes the entire depth range into more compact intervals, and attains the coarse-to-fine granularity autoregressive objective in an ordinal-regression manner. By coupling these two autoregressive objectives, our DAR establishes new state-of-the-art (SOTA) on KITTI and NYU Depth v2 by clear margins. Further, our scalable approach allows us to scale the model up to 2.0B and achieve the best RMSE of 1.799 on the KITTI dataset (5% improvement) compared to 1.896 by the current SOTA (Depth Anything). DAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability on unseen datasets. These results suggest that DAR yields superior performance with an autoregressive prediction paradigm, providing a promising approach to equip modern autoregressive large models (e.g., GPT-4o) with depth estimation capabilities.

It has long been established that predictive models can be transformed into lossless compressors and vice versa. Incidentally, in recent years, the machine learning community has focused on training increasingly large and powerful self-supervised (language) models. Since these large language models exhibit impressive predictive capabilities, they are well-positioned to be strong compressors. In this work, we advocate for viewing the prediction problem through the lens of compression and evaluate the compression capabilities of large (foundation) models. We show that large language models are powerful general-purpose predictors and that the compression viewpoint provides novel insights into scaling laws, tokenization, and in-context learning. For example, Chinchilla 70B, while trained primarily on text, compresses ImageNet patches to 43.4% and LibriSpeech samples to 16.4% of their raw size, beating domain-specific compressors like PNG (58.5%) or FLAC (30.3%), respectively. Finally, we show that the prediction-compression equivalence allows us to use any compressor (like gzip) to build a conditional generative model.

Recent advancements in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities across various multimodal contexts. However, their application in robotic scenarios, particularly for long-horizon manipulation tasks, reveals significant limitations. These limitations arise from the current MLLMs lacking three essential robotic brain capabilities: Planning Capability, which involves decomposing complex manipulation instructions into manageable sub-tasks; Affordance Perception, the ability to recognize and interpret the affordances of interactive objects; and Trajectory Prediction, the foresight to anticipate the complete manipulation trajectory necessary for successful execution. To enhance the robotic brain's core capabilities from abstract to concrete, we introduce ShareRobot, a high-quality heterogeneous dataset that labels multi-dimensional information such as task planning, object affordance, and end-effector trajectory. ShareRobot's diversity and accuracy have been meticulously refined by three human annotators. Building on this dataset, we developed RoboBrain, an MLLM-based model that combines robotic and general multi-modal data, utilizes a multi-stage training strategy, and incorporates long videos and high-resolution images to improve its robotic manipulation capabilities. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RoboBrain achieves state-of-the-art performance across various robotic tasks, highlighting its potential to advance robotic brain capabilities.

Graph mining is an important area in data mining and machine learning that involves extracting valuable information from graph-structured data. In recent years, significant progress has been made in this field through the development of graph neural networks (GNNs). However, GNNs are still deficient in generalizing to diverse graph data. Aiming to this issue, Large Language Models (LLMs) could provide new solutions for graph mining tasks with their superior semantic understanding. In this review, we systematically review the combination and application techniques of LLMs and GNNs and present a novel taxonomy for research in this interdisciplinary field, which involves three main categories: GNN-driving-LLM, LLM-driving-GNN, and GNN-LLM-co-driving. Within this framework, we reveal the capabilities of LLMs in enhancing graph feature extraction as well as improving the effectiveness of downstream tasks such as node classification, link prediction, and community detection. Although LLMs have demonstrated their great potential in handling graph-structured data, their high computational requirements and complexity remain challenges. Future research needs to continue to explore how to efficiently fuse LLMs and GNNs to achieve more powerful graph learning and reasoning capabilities and provide new impetus for the development of graph mining techniques.

Multimodal autoregressive (AR) models, based on next-token prediction and transformer architecture, have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in various multimodal tasks including text-to-image (T2I) generation. Despite their strong performance in general T2I tasks, our research reveals that these models initially struggle with subject-driven image generation compared to dominant diffusion models. To address this limitation, we introduce Proxy-Tuning, leveraging diffusion models to enhance AR models' capabilities in subject-specific image generation. Our method reveals a striking weak-to-strong phenomenon: fine-tuned AR models consistently outperform their diffusion model supervisors in both subject fidelity and prompt adherence. We analyze this performance shift and identify scenarios where AR models excel, particularly in multi-subject compositions and contextual understanding. This work not only demonstrates impressive results in subject-driven AR image generation, but also unveils the potential of weak-to-strong generalization in the image generation domain, contributing to a deeper understanding of different architectures' strengths and limitations.

We introduce RoboBrain 2.0, our latest generation of embodied vision-language foundation models, designed to unify perception, reasoning, and planning for complex embodied tasks in physical environments. It comes in two variants: a lightweight 7B model and a full-scale 32B model, featuring a heterogeneous architecture with a vision encoder and a language model. Despite its compact size, RoboBrain 2.0 achieves strong performance across a wide spectrum of embodied reasoning tasks. On both spatial and temporal benchmarks, the 32B variant achieves leading results, surpassing prior open-source and proprietary models. In particular, it supports key real-world embodied AI capabilities, including spatial understanding (e.g., affordance prediction, spatial referring, trajectory forecasting) and temporal decision-making (e.g., closed-loop interaction, multi-agent long-horizon planning, and scene graph updating). This report details the model architecture, data construction, multi-stage training strategies, infrastructure and practical applications. We hope RoboBrain 2.0 advances embodied AI research and serves as a practical step toward building generalist embodied agents. The code, checkpoint and benchmark are available at https://superrobobrain.github.io.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can serve as world models to enhance agent decision-making in digital environments by simulating future states and predicting action outcomes, potentially eliminating costly trial-and-error exploration. However, this capability is fundamentally limited by LLMs' tendency toward hallucination and their reliance on static training knowledge, which can lead to compounding errors that inhibit long-horizon simulations. To systematically investigate whether LLMs are appropriate for world modeling, we probe two core capabilities of world models--future state prediction and reward estimation--through three tasks: next-state identification, full-procedure planning alignment, and milestone transition recognition. Our analysis shows that while LLMs effectively capture immediate next states and identify meaningful state transitions, their performance rapidly degrades in full-procedure planning. This highlights LLMs' limitations in reliably modeling environment dynamics over long horizons. To address these limitations, we propose the Retrieval-augmented World Model (R-WoM), which grounds LLM simulations by incorporating factual, up-to-date knowledge retrieved from external tutorials. Experiments show that R-WoM achieves substantial improvements of up to 25.3% (OSWorld) and 18.1% (WebArena) compared to baselines, with particular advantages in longer-horizon simulations.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown that it is promising to utilize Process Reward Models (PRMs) as verifiers to enhance the performance of LLMs. However, current PRMs face three key challenges: (1) limited process supervision and generalization capabilities, (2) dependence on scalar value prediction without leveraging the generative abilities of LLMs, and (3) inability to scale the test-time compute of PRMs. In this work, we introduce GenPRM, a generative process reward model that performs explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning with code verification before providing judgment for each reasoning step. To obtain high-quality process supervision labels and rationale data, we propose Relative Progress Estimation (RPE) and a rationale synthesis framework that incorporates code verification. Experimental results on ProcessBench and several mathematical reasoning tasks show that GenPRM significantly outperforms prior PRMs with only 23K training data from MATH dataset. Through test-time scaling, a 1.5B GenPRM outperforms GPT-4o, and a 7B GenPRM surpasses Qwen2.5-Math-PRM-72B on ProcessBench. Additionally, GenPRM demonstrates strong abilities to serve as a critic model for policy model refinement. This work establishes a new paradigm for process supervision that bridges the gap between PRMs and critic models in LLMs. Our code, model, and data will be available in https://ryanliu112.github.io/GenPRM.

We introduce xbench, a dynamic, profession-aligned evaluation suite designed to bridge the gap between AI agent capabilities and real-world productivity. While existing benchmarks often focus on isolated technical skills, they may not accurately reflect the economic value agents deliver in professional settings. To address this, xbench targets commercially significant domains with evaluation tasks defined by industry professionals. Our framework creates metrics that strongly correlate with productivity value, enables prediction of Technology-Market Fit (TMF), and facilitates tracking of product capabilities over time. As our initial implementations, we present two benchmarks: Recruitment and Marketing. For Recruitment, we collect 50 tasks from real-world headhunting business scenarios to evaluate agents' abilities in company mapping, information retrieval, and talent sourcing. For Marketing, we assess agents' ability to match influencers with advertiser needs, evaluating their performance across 50 advertiser requirements using a curated pool of 836 candidate influencers. We present initial evaluation results for leading contemporary agents, establishing a baseline for these professional domains. Our continuously updated evalsets and evaluations are available at https://xbench.org.

Retrieval-Augmented Language Models (RALMs) represent a classic paradigm where models enhance generative capabilities using external knowledge retrieved via a specialized module. Recent advancements in Agent techniques enable Large Language Models (LLMs) to autonomously utilize tools for retrieval, planning, and reasoning. While existing training-based methods show promise, their agentic abilities are limited by inherent characteristics of the task-specific data used during training. To further enhance the universal search capability of agents, we propose a novel pre-training framework, MaskSearch. In the pre-training stage, we introduce the Retrieval Augmented Mask Prediction (RAMP) task, where the model learns to leverage search tools to fill masked spans on a large number of pre-training data, thus acquiring universal retrieval and reasoning capabilities for LLMs. After that, the model is trained on downstream tasks to achieve further improvement. We apply both Supervised Fine-tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) for training. For SFT, we combine agent-based and distillation-based methods to generate training data, starting with a multi-agent system consisting of a planner, rewriter, observer, and followed by a self-evolving teacher model. While for RL, we employ DAPO as the training framework and adopt a hybrid reward system consisting of answer rewards and format rewards. Additionally, we introduce a curriculum learning approach that allows the model to learn progressively from easier to more challenging instances based on the number of masked spans. We evaluate the effectiveness of our framework in the scenario of open-domain multi-hop question answering. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that MaskSearch significantly enhances the performance of LLM-based search agents on both in-domain and out-of-domain downstream tasks.

Memory Mosaics are networks of associative memories working in concert to achieve a prediction task of interest. Like transformers, memory mosaics possess compositional capabilities and in-context learning capabilities. Unlike transformers, memory mosaics achieve these capabilities in comparatively transparent ways. We demonstrate these capabilities on toy examples and we also show that memory mosaics perform as well or better than transformers on medium-scale language modeling tasks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) applied to code-related applications have emerged as a prominent field, attracting significant interest from both academia and industry. However, as new and improved LLMs are developed, existing evaluation benchmarks (e.g., HumanEval, MBPP) are no longer sufficient for assessing their capabilities. In this work, we propose LiveCodeBench, a comprehensive and contamination-free evaluation of LLMs for code, which continuously collects new problems over time from contests across three competition platforms, namely LeetCode, AtCoder, and CodeForces. Notably, our benchmark also focuses on a broader range of code related capabilities, such as self-repair, code execution, and test output prediction, beyond just code generation. Currently, LiveCodeBench hosts four hundred high-quality coding problems that were published between May 2023 and February 2024. We have evaluated 9 base LLMs and 20 instruction-tuned LLMs on LiveCodeBench. We present empirical findings on contamination, holistic performance comparisons, potential overfitting in existing benchmarks as well as individual model comparisons. We will release all prompts and model completions for further community analysis, along with a general toolkit for adding new scenarios and model

Building properties, such as height, usage, and material composition, play a crucial role in spatial data infrastructures, supporting applications such as energy simulation, risk assessment, and environmental modeling. Despite their importance, comprehensive and high-quality building attribute data remain scarce in many urban areas. Recent advances have enabled the extraction and tagging of objective building attributes using remote sensing and street-level imagery. However, establishing a method and pipeline that integrates diverse open datasets, acquires holistic building imagery at scale, and infers comprehensive building attributes remains a significant challenge. Among the first, this study bridges the gaps by introducing OpenFACADES, an open framework that leverages multimodal crowdsourced data to enrich building profiles with both objective attributes and semantic descriptors through multimodal large language models. Our methodology proceeds in three major steps. First, we integrate street-level image metadata from Mapillary with OpenStreetMap geometries via isovist analysis, effectively identifying images that provide suitable vantage points for observing target buildings. Second, we automate the detection of building facades in panoramic imagery and tailor a reprojection approach to convert objects into holistic perspective views that approximate real-world observation. Third, we introduce an innovative approach that harnesses and systematically investigates the capabilities of open-source large vision-language models (VLMs) for multi-attribute prediction and open-vocabulary captioning in building-level analytics, leveraging a globally sourced dataset of 30,180 labeled images from seven cities. Evaluation shows that fine-tuned VLM excel in multi-attribute inference, outperforming single-attribute computer vision models and zero-shot ChatGPT-4o.

Text-to-3D asset generation has achieved significant optimization under the supervision of 2D diffusion priors. However, when dealing with compositional scenes, existing methods encounter several challenges: 1). failure to ensure that composite scene layouts comply with physical laws; 2). difficulty in accurately capturing the assets and relationships described in complex scene descriptions; 3). limited autonomous asset generation capabilities among layout approaches leveraging large language models (LLMs). To avoid these compromises, we propose a novel framework for compositional scene generation, PhiP-G, which seamlessly integrates generation techniques with layout guidance based on a world model. Leveraging LLM-based agents, PhiP-G analyzes the complex scene description to generate a scene graph, and integrating a multimodal 2D generation agent and a 3D Gaussian generation method for targeted assets creation. For the stage of layout, PhiP-G employs a physical pool with adhesion capabilities and a visual supervision agent, forming a world model for layout prediction and planning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PhiP-G significantly enhances the generation quality and physical rationality of the compositional scenes. Notably, PhiP-G attains state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in CLIP scores, achieves parity with the leading methods in generation quality as measured by the T^3Bench, and improves efficiency by 24x.

Predicting future international events from textual information, such as news articles, has tremendous potential for applications in global policy, strategic decision-making, and geopolitics. However, existing datasets available for this task are often limited in quality, hindering the progress of related research. In this paper, we introduce WORLDREP (WORLD Relationship and Event Prediction), a novel dataset designed to address these limitations by leveraging the advanced reasoning capabilities of large-language models (LLMs). Our dataset features high-quality scoring labels generated through advanced prompt modeling and rigorously validated by domain experts in political science. We showcase the quality and utility of WORLDREP for real-world event prediction tasks, demonstrating its effectiveness through extensive experiments and analysis. Furthermore, we publicly release our dataset along with the full automation source code for data collection, labeling, and benchmarking, aiming to support and advance research in text-based event prediction.

Remote sensing (RS) visual grounding aims to use natural language expression to locate specific objects (in the form of the bounding box or segmentation mask) in RS images, enhancing human interaction with intelligent RS interpretation systems. Early research in this area was primarily based on horizontal bounding boxes (HBBs), but as more diverse RS datasets have become available, tasks involving oriented bounding boxes (OBBs) and segmentation masks have emerged. In practical applications, different targets require different grounding types: HBB can localize an object's position, OBB provides its orientation, and mask depicts its shape. However, existing specialized methods are typically tailored to a single type of RS visual grounding task and are hard to generalize across tasks. In contrast, large vision-language models (VLMs) exhibit powerful multi-task learning capabilities but struggle to handle dense prediction tasks like segmentation. This paper proposes GeoGround, a novel framework that unifies support for HBB, OBB, and mask RS visual grounding tasks, allowing flexible output selection. Rather than customizing the architecture of VLM, our work aims to elegantly support pixel-level visual grounding output through the Text-Mask technique. We define prompt-assisted and geometry-guided learning to enhance consistency across different signals. To support model training, we present refGeo, a large-scale RS visual instruction-following dataset containing 161k image-text pairs. Experimental results show that GeoGround demonstrates strong performance across four RS visual grounding tasks, matching or surpassing the performance of specialized methods on multiple benchmarks. Code available at https://github.com/zytx121/GeoGround

The recent success of large foundation models in artificial intelligence has prompted the emergence of chemical pre-trained models. Despite the growing interest in large molecular pre-trained models that provide informative representations for downstream tasks, attempts for multimodal pre-training approaches on the molecule domain were limited. To address this, we present a novel multimodal molecular pre-trained model that incorporates the modalities of structure and biochemical properties, drawing inspiration from recent advances in multimodal learning techniques. Our proposed model pipeline of data handling and training objectives aligns the structure/property features in a common embedding space, which enables the model to regard bidirectional information between the molecules' structure and properties. These contributions emerge synergistic knowledge, allowing us to tackle both multimodal and unimodal downstream tasks through a single model. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our model shows remarkable capabilities in solving various meaningful chemical challenges, including conditional molecule generation, property prediction, molecule classification, and reaction prediction.

The inference process in Large Language Models (LLMs) is often limited due to the absence of parallelism in the auto-regressive decoding process, resulting in most operations being restricted by the memory bandwidth of accelerators. While methods such as speculative decoding have been suggested to address this issue, their implementation is impeded by the challenges associated with acquiring and maintaining a separate draft model. In this paper, we present Medusa, an efficient method that augments LLM inference by adding extra decoding heads to predict multiple subsequent tokens in parallel. Using a tree-based attention mechanism, Medusa constructs multiple candidate continuations and verifies them simultaneously in each decoding step. By leveraging parallel processing, Medusa introduces only minimal overhead in terms of single-step latency while substantially reducing the number of decoding steps required. We present two levels of fine-tuning procedures for Medusa to meet the needs of different use cases: Medusa-1: Medusa is directly fine-tuned on top of a frozen backbone LLM, enabling lossless inference acceleration. Medusa-2: Medusa is fine-tuned together with the backbone LLM, enabling better prediction accuracy of Medusa heads and higher speedup but needing a special training recipe that preserves the backbone model's capabilities. Moreover, we propose several extensions that improve or expand the utility of Medusa, including a self-distillation to handle situations where no training data is available and a typical acceptance scheme to boost the acceptance rate while maintaining generation quality. We evaluate Medusa on models of various sizes and training procedures. Our experiments demonstrate that Medusa-1 can achieve over 2.2x speedup without compromising generation quality, while Medusa-2 further improves the speedup to 2.3-3.6x.

Using pre-trained large language models (LLMs) as the backbone for time series prediction has recently gained significant research interest. However, the effectiveness of LLM backbones in this domain remains a topic of debate. Based on thorough empirical analyses, we observe that training and testing LLM-based models on small datasets often leads to the Encoder and Decoder becoming overly adapted to the dataset, thereby obscuring the true predictive capabilities of the LLM backbone. To investigate the genuine potential of LLMs in time series prediction, we introduce three pre-training models with identical architectures but different pre-training strategies. Thereby, large-scale pre-training allows us to create unbiased Encoder and Decoder components tailored to the LLM backbone. Through controlled experiments, we evaluate the zero-shot and few-shot prediction performance of the LLM, offering insights into its capabilities. Extensive experiments reveal that although the LLM backbone demonstrates some promise, its forecasting performance is limited. Our source code is publicly available in the anonymous repository: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/LLM4TS-0B5C.

Autonomous driving visual question answering (AD-VQA) aims to answer questions related to perception, prediction, and planning based on given driving scene images, heavily relying on the model's spatial understanding capabilities. Prior works typically express spatial information through textual representations of coordinates, resulting in semantic gaps between visual coordinate representations and textual descriptions. This oversight hinders the accurate transmission of spatial information and increases the expressive burden. To address this, we propose a novel Marker-based Prompt learning framework (MPDrive), which represents spatial coordinates by concise visual markers, ensuring linguistic expressive consistency and enhancing the accuracy of both visual perception and spatial expression in AD-VQA. Specifically, we create marker images by employing a detection expert to overlay object regions with numerical labels, converting complex textual coordinate generation into straightforward text-based visual marker predictions. Moreover, we fuse original and marker images as scene-level features and integrate them with detection priors to derive instance-level features. By combining these features, we construct dual-granularity visual prompts that stimulate the LLM's spatial perception capabilities. Extensive experiments on the DriveLM and CODA-LM datasets show that MPDrive achieves state-of-the-art performance, particularly in cases requiring sophisticated spatial understanding.

Large-scale datasets have fueled recent advancements in AI-based autonomous vehicle research. However, these datasets are usually collected from a single vehicle's one-time pass of a certain location, lacking multiagent interactions or repeated traversals of the same place. Such information could lead to transformative enhancements in autonomous vehicles' perception, prediction, and planning capabilities. To bridge this gap, in collaboration with the self-driving company May Mobility, we present the MARS dataset which unifies scenarios that enable MultiAgent, multitraveRSal, and multimodal autonomous vehicle research. More specifically, MARS is collected with a fleet of autonomous vehicles driving within a certain geographical area. Each vehicle has its own route and different vehicles may appear at nearby locations. Each vehicle is equipped with a LiDAR and surround-view RGB cameras. We curate two subsets in MARS: one facilitates collaborative driving with multiple vehicles simultaneously present at the same location, and the other enables memory retrospection through asynchronous traversals of the same location by multiple vehicles. We conduct experiments in place recognition and neural reconstruction. More importantly, MARS introduces new research opportunities and challenges such as multitraversal 3D reconstruction, multiagent perception, and unsupervised object discovery. Our data and codes can be found at https://ai4ce.github.io/MARS/.

Recent work has proposed artificial intelligence (AI) models that can learn to decide whether to make a prediction for an instance of a task or to delegate it to a human by considering both parties' capabilities. In simulations with synthetically generated or context-independent human predictions, delegation can help improve the performance of human-AI teams -- compared to humans or the AI model completing the task alone. However, so far, it remains unclear how humans perform and how they perceive the task when they are aware that an AI model delegated task instances to them. In an experimental study with 196 participants, we show that task performance and task satisfaction improve through AI delegation, regardless of whether humans are aware of the delegation. Additionally, we identify humans' increased levels of self-efficacy as the underlying mechanism for these improvements in performance and satisfaction. Our findings provide initial evidence that allowing AI models to take over more management responsibilities can be an effective form of human-AI collaboration in workplaces.

We present Lumina-mGPT, a family of multimodal autoregressive models capable of various vision and language tasks, particularly excelling in generating flexible photorealistic images from text descriptions. Unlike existing autoregressive image generation approaches, Lumina-mGPT employs a pretrained decoder-only transformer as a unified framework for modeling multimodal token sequences. Our key insight is that a simple decoder-only transformer with multimodal Generative PreTraining (mGPT), utilizing the next-token prediction objective on massive interleaved text-image sequences, can learn broad and general multimodal capabilities, thereby illuminating photorealistic text-to-image generation. Building on these pretrained models, we propose Flexible Progressive Supervised Finetuning (FP-SFT) on high-quality image-text pairs to fully unlock their potential for high-aesthetic image synthesis at any resolution while maintaining their general multimodal capabilities. Furthermore, we introduce Ominiponent Supervised Finetuning (Omni-SFT), transforming Lumina-mGPT into a foundation model that seamlessly achieves omnipotent task unification. The resulting model demonstrates versatile multimodal capabilities, including visual generation tasks like flexible text-to-image generation and controllable generation, visual recognition tasks like segmentation and depth estimation, and vision-language tasks like multiturn visual question answering. Additionally, we analyze the differences and similarities between diffusion-based and autoregressive methods in a direct comparison.

The integration of geometric reconstruction and generative modeling remains a critical challenge in developing AI systems capable of human-like spatial reasoning. This paper proposes Aether, a unified framework that enables geometry-aware reasoning in world models by jointly optimizing three core capabilities: (1) 4D dynamic reconstruction, (2) action-conditioned video prediction, and (3) goal-conditioned visual planning. Through task-interleaved feature learning, Aether achieves synergistic knowledge sharing across reconstruction, prediction, and planning objectives. Building upon video generation models, our framework demonstrates unprecedented synthetic-to-real generalization despite never observing real-world data during training. Furthermore, our approach achieves zero-shot generalization in both action following and reconstruction tasks, thanks to its intrinsic geometric modeling. Remarkably, even without real-world data, its reconstruction performance far exceeds that of domain-specific models. Additionally, Aether leverages a geometry-informed action space to seamlessly translate predictions into actions, enabling effective autonomous trajectory planning. We hope our work inspires the community to explore new frontiers in physically-reasonable world modeling and its applications.

One of the roadblocks to a better understanding of neural networks' internals is polysemanticity, where neurons appear to activate in multiple, semantically distinct contexts. Polysemanticity prevents us from identifying concise, human-understandable explanations for what neural networks are doing internally. One hypothesised cause of polysemanticity is superposition, where neural networks represent more features than they have neurons by assigning features to an overcomplete set of directions in activation space, rather than to individual neurons. Here, we attempt to identify those directions, using sparse autoencoders to reconstruct the internal activations of a language model. These autoencoders learn sets of sparsely activating features that are more interpretable and monosemantic than directions identified by alternative approaches, where interpretability is measured by automated methods. Ablating these features enables precise model editing, for example, by removing capabilities such as pronoun prediction, while disrupting model behaviour less than prior techniques. This work indicates that it is possible to resolve superposition in language models using a scalable, unsupervised method. Our method may serve as a foundation for future mechanistic interpretability work, which we hope will enable greater model transparency and steerability.

In this paper, we introduce ILLUME, a unified multimodal large language model (MLLM) that seamlessly integrates multimodal understanding and generation capabilities within a single large language model through a unified next-token prediction formulation. To address the large dataset size typically required for image-text alignment, we propose to enhance data efficiency through the design of a vision tokenizer that incorporates semantic information and a progressive multi-stage training procedure. This approach reduces the dataset size to just 15M for pretraining -- over four times fewer than what is typically needed -- while achieving competitive or even superior performance with existing unified MLLMs, such as Janus. Additionally, to promote synergistic enhancement between understanding and generation capabilities, which is under-explored in previous works, we introduce a novel self-enhancing multimodal alignment scheme. This scheme supervises the MLLM to self-assess the consistency between text descriptions and self-generated images, facilitating the model to interpret images more accurately and avoid unrealistic and incorrect predictions caused by misalignment in image generation. Based on extensive experiments, our proposed ILLUME stands out and competes with state-of-the-art unified MLLMs and specialized models across various benchmarks for multimodal understanding, generation, and editing.

The rich and multifaceted nature of human social interaction, encompassing multimodal cues, unobservable relations and mental states, and dynamical behavior, presents a formidable challenge for artificial intelligence. To advance research in this area, we introduce SIV-Bench, a novel video benchmark for rigorously evaluating the capabilities of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) across Social Scene Understanding (SSU), Social State Reasoning (SSR), and Social Dynamics Prediction (SDP). SIV-Bench features 2,792 video clips and 8,792 meticulously generated question-answer pairs derived from a human-LLM collaborative pipeline. It is originally collected from TikTok and YouTube, covering a wide range of video genres, presentation styles, and linguistic and cultural backgrounds. It also includes a dedicated setup for analyzing the impact of different textual cues-original on-screen text, added dialogue, or no text. Our comprehensive experiments on leading MLLMs reveal that while models adeptly handle SSU, they significantly struggle with SSR and SDP, where Relation Inference (RI) is an acute bottleneck, as further examined in our analysis. Our study also confirms the critical role of transcribed dialogue in aiding comprehension of complex social interactions. By systematically identifying current MLLMs' strengths and limitations, SIV-Bench offers crucial insights to steer the development of more socially intelligent AI. The dataset and code are available at https://kfq20.github.io/sivbench/.

Prompt learning has become the most effective paradigm for adapting large pre-trained vision-language models (VLMs) to downstream tasks. Recently, unsupervised prompt tuning methods, such as UPL and POUF, directly leverage pseudo-labels as supervisory information to fine-tune additional adaptation modules on unlabeled data. However, inaccurate pseudo labels easily misguide the tuning process and result in poor representation capabilities. In light of this, we propose Training-Free Unsupervised Prompts (TFUP), which maximally preserves the inherent representation capabilities and enhances them with a residual connection to similarity-based prediction probabilities in a training-free and labeling-free manner. Specifically, we integrate both instance confidence and prototype scores to select representative samples, which are used to customize a reliable Feature Cache Model (FCM) for training-free inference. Then, we design a Multi-level Similarity Measure (MSM) that considers both feature-level and semantic-level similarities to calculate the distance between each test image and the cached sample as the weight of the corresponding cached label to generate similarity-based prediction probabilities. In this way, TFUP achieves surprising performance, even surpassing the training-base method on multiple classification datasets. Based on our TFUP, we propose a training-based approach (TFUP-T) to further boost the adaptation performance. In addition to the standard cross-entropy loss, TFUP-T adopts an additional marginal distribution entropy loss to constrain the model from a global perspective. Our TFUP-T achieves new state-of-the-art classification performance compared to unsupervised and few-shot adaptation approaches on multiple benchmarks. In particular, TFUP-T improves the classification accuracy of POUF by 3.3% on the most challenging Domain-Net dataset.

Building robots that can perceive, reason, and act in dynamic, unstructured environments remains a core challenge. Recent embodied systems often adopt a dual-system paradigm, where System 2 handles high-level reasoning while System 1 executes low-level control. In this work, we refer to System 2 as the embodied brain, emphasizing its role as the cognitive core for reasoning and decision-making in manipulation tasks. Given this role, systematic evaluation of the embodied brain is essential. Yet existing benchmarks emphasize execution success, or when targeting high-level reasoning, suffer from incomplete dimensions and limited task realism, offering only a partial picture of cognitive capability. To bridge this gap, we introduce RoboBench, a benchmark that systematically evaluates multimodal large language models (MLLMs) as embodied brains. Motivated by the critical roles across the full manipulation pipeline, RoboBench defines five dimensions-instruction comprehension, perception reasoning, generalized planning, affordance prediction, and failure analysis-spanning 14 capabilities, 25 tasks, and 6092 QA pairs. To ensure realism, we curate datasets across diverse embodiments, attribute-rich objects, and multi-view scenes, drawing from large-scale real robotic data. For planning, RoboBench introduces an evaluation framework, MLLM-as-world-simulator. It evaluate embodied feasibility by simulating whether predicted plans can achieve critical object-state changes. Experiments on 14 MLLMs reveal fundamental limitations: difficulties with implicit instruction comprehension, spatiotemporal reasoning, cross-scenario planning, fine-grained affordance understanding, and execution failure diagnosis. RoboBench provides a comprehensive scaffold to quantify high-level cognition, and guide the development of next-generation embodied MLLMs. The project page is in https://robo-bench.github.io.

Most recent real-world image super-resolution (Real-ISR) methods employ pre-trained text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models to synthesize the high-quality image either from random Gaussian noise, which yields realistic results but is slow due to iterative denoising, or directly from the input low-quality image, which is efficient but at the price of lower output quality. These approaches train ControlNet or LoRA modules while keeping the pre-trained model fixed, which often introduces over-enhanced artifacts and hallucinations, suffering from the robustness to inputs of varying degradations. Recent visual autoregressive (AR) models, such as pre-trained Infinity, can provide strong T2I generation capabilities while offering superior efficiency by using the bitwise next-scale prediction strategy. Building upon next-scale prediction, we introduce a robust Real-ISR framework, namely Next-Scale Autoregressive Modeling (NSARM). Specifically, we train NSARM in two stages: a transformation network is first trained to map the input low-quality image to preliminary scales, followed by an end-to-end full-model fine-tuning. Such a comprehensive fine-tuning enhances the robustness of NSARM in Real-ISR tasks without compromising its generative capability. Extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that as a pure AR model, NSARM achieves superior visual results over existing Real-ISR methods while maintaining a fast inference speed. Most importantly, it demonstrates much higher robustness to the quality of input images, showing stronger generalization performance. Project page: https://github.com/Xiangtaokong/NSARM

Standard classification models often map inputs directly to labels without explicit reasoning, potentially limiting their performance, robustness, and interpretability. This paper introduces a novel two-stage approach to enhance text classification by leveraging Large Language Model (LLM)-generated reasonings. In the first stage, we fine-tune a Llama-3.2-1B-Instruct model (henceforth Llama-R-Gen) on a general-purpose reasoning dataset (syvai/reasoning-gen) to generate textual reasoning (R) given a question and its answer. In the second stage, this generally trained Llama-R-Gen is used offline to create an augmented training dataset for a downstream generative model. This downstream model, based on Llama-3.2-1B-Instruct, takes only the input text (Q) and is trained to output the generated reasoning (R) immediately followed by the predicted emotion (A). We demonstrate this methodology on the dair-ai/emotion dataset for emotion classification. Our experiments show that the generative model trained to output reasoning and the emotion (Classifier Q->RA) achieves a significant improvement of 8.7 percentage points in accuracy (for emotion prediction) compared to a baseline generative model trained solely to output the emotion (Classifier Q->A), highlighting the strong generalization capabilities of the reasoning generation and the benefit of explicit reasoning training. This work underscores the potential of LLM-generated reasonings for creating richer training datasets, thereby improving the performance of diverse downstream NLP tasks and providing explicit explanations.

Real-time perception, or streaming perception, is a crucial aspect of autonomous driving that has yet to be thoroughly explored in existing research. To address this gap, we present DAMO-StreamNet, an optimized framework that combines recent advances from the YOLO series with a comprehensive analysis of spatial and temporal perception mechanisms, delivering a cutting-edge solution. The key innovations of DAMO-StreamNet are (1) A robust neck structure incorporating deformable convolution, enhancing the receptive field and feature alignment capabilities (2) A dual-branch structure that integrates short-path semantic features and long-path temporal features, improving motion state prediction accuracy. (3) Logits-level distillation for efficient optimization, aligning the logits of teacher and student networks in semantic space. (4) A real-time forecasting mechanism that updates support frame features with the current frame, ensuring seamless streaming perception during inference. Our experiments demonstrate that DAMO-StreamNet surpasses existing state-of-the-art methods, achieving 37.8% (normal size (600, 960)) and 43.3% (large size (1200, 1920)) sAP without using extra data. This work not only sets a new benchmark for real-time perception but also provides valuable insights for future research. Additionally, DAMO-StreamNet can be applied to various autonomous systems, such as drones and robots, paving the way for real-time perception. The code is at https://github.com/zhiqic/DAMO-StreamNet.

The remarkable performance of large multimodal models (LMMs) has attracted significant interest from the image segmentation community. To align with the next-token-prediction paradigm, current LMM-driven segmentation methods either use object boundary points to represent masks or introduce special segmentation tokens, whose hidden states are decoded by a segmentation model requiring the original image as input. However, these approaches often suffer from inadequate mask representation and complex architectures, limiting the potential of LMMs. In this work, we propose the Hierarchical Mask Tokenizer (HiMTok), which represents segmentation masks with up to 32 tokens and eliminates the need for the original image during mask de-tokenization. HiMTok allows for compact and coarse-to-fine mask representations, aligning well with the LLM next-token-prediction paradigm and facilitating the direct acquisition of segmentation capabilities. We develop a 3-stage training recipe for progressive learning of segmentation and visual capabilities, featuring a hierarchical mask loss for effective coarse-to-fine learning. Additionally, we enable bidirectional information flow, allowing conversion between bounding boxes and mask tokens to fully leverage multi-task training potential. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across various segmentation tasks,while also enhancing visual grounding and maintaining overall visual understanding.

We describe our team's contribution to the STRICT-SMALL track of the BabyLM Challenge. The challenge requires training a language model from scratch using only a relatively small training dataset of ten million words. We experiment with three variants of cognitively-motivated curriculum learning and analyze their effect on the performance of the model on linguistic evaluation tasks. In the vocabulary curriculum, we analyze methods for constraining the vocabulary in the early stages of training to simulate cognitively more plausible learning curves. In the data curriculum experiments, we vary the order of the training instances based on i) infant-inspired expectations and ii) the learning behavior of the model. In the objective curriculum, we explore different variations of combining the conventional masked language modeling task with a more coarse-grained word class prediction task to reinforce linguistic generalization capabilities. Our results did not yield consistent improvements over our own non-curriculum learning baseline across a range of linguistic benchmarks; however, we do find marginal gains on select tasks. Our analysis highlights key takeaways for specific combinations of tasks and settings which benefit from our proposed curricula. We moreover determine that careful selection of model architecture, and training hyper-parameters yield substantial improvements over the default baselines provided by the BabyLM challenge.

Large Language Models (LLMs) with strong abilities in natural language processing tasks have emerged and have been rapidly applied in various kinds of areas such as science, finance and software engineering. However, the capability of LLMs to advance the field of chemistry remains unclear. In this paper,we establish a comprehensive benchmark containing 8 practical chemistry tasks, including 1) name prediction, 2) property prediction, 3) yield prediction, 4) reaction prediction, 5) retrosynthesis (prediction of reactants from products), 6)text-based molecule design, 7) molecule captioning, and 8) reagent selection. Our analysis draws on widely recognized datasets including BBBP, Tox21, PubChem, USPTO, and ChEBI, facilitating a broad exploration of the capacities of LLMs within the context of practical chemistry. Three GPT models (GPT-4, GPT-3.5,and Davinci-003) are evaluated for each chemistry task in zero-shot and few-shot in-context learning settings with carefully selected demonstration examples and specially crafted prompts. The key results of our investigation are 1) GPT-4 outperforms the other two models among the three evaluated; 2) GPT models exhibit less competitive performance in tasks demanding precise understanding of molecular SMILES representation, such as reaction prediction and retrosynthesis;3) GPT models demonstrate strong capabilities in text-related explanation tasks such as molecule captioning; and 4) GPT models exhibit comparable or better performance to classical machine learning models when applied to chemical problems that can be transformed into classification or ranking tasks, such as property prediction, and yield prediction.

World models are a fundamental component in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL). To perform temporally extended and consistent simulations of the future in partially observable environments, world models need to possess long-term memory. However, state-of-the-art MBRL agents, such as Dreamer, predominantly employ recurrent neural networks (RNNs) as their world model backbone, which have limited memory capacity. In this paper, we seek to explore alternative world model backbones for improving long-term memory. In particular, we investigate the effectiveness of Transformers and Structured State Space Sequence (S4) models, motivated by their remarkable ability to capture long-range dependencies in low-dimensional sequences and their complementary strengths. We propose S4WM, the first world model compatible with parallelizable SSMs including S4 and its variants. By incorporating latent variable modeling, S4WM can efficiently generate high-dimensional image sequences through latent imagination. Furthermore, we extensively compare RNN-, Transformer-, and S4-based world models across four sets of environments, which we have tailored to assess crucial memory capabilities of world models, including long-term imagination, context-dependent recall, reward prediction, and memory-based reasoning. Our findings demonstrate that S4WM outperforms Transformer-based world models in terms of long-term memory, while exhibiting greater efficiency during training and imagination. These results pave the way for the development of stronger MBRL agents.

Building a generalist model for user interface (UI) understanding is challenging due to various foundational issues, such as platform diversity, resolution variation, and data limitation. In this paper, we introduce Ferret-UI 2, a multimodal large language model (MLLM) designed for universal UI understanding across a wide range of platforms, including iPhone, Android, iPad, Webpage, and AppleTV. Building on the foundation of Ferret-UI, Ferret-UI 2 introduces three key innovations: support for multiple platform types, high-resolution perception through adaptive scaling, and advanced task training data generation powered by GPT-4o with set-of-mark visual prompting. These advancements enable Ferret-UI 2 to perform complex, user-centered interactions, making it highly versatile and adaptable for the expanding diversity of platform ecosystems. Extensive empirical experiments on referring, grounding, user-centric advanced tasks (comprising 9 subtasks times 5 platforms), GUIDE next-action prediction dataset, and GUI-World multi-platform benchmark demonstrate that Ferret-UI 2 significantly outperforms Ferret-UI, and also shows strong cross-platform transfer capabilities.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

What makes a good Large Language Model (LLM)? That it performs well on the relevant benchmarks -- which hopefully measure, with some validity, the presence of capabilities that are also challenged in real application. But what makes the model perform well? What gives a model its abilities? We take a recently introduced type of benchmark that is meant to challenge capabilities in a goal-directed, agentive context through self-play of conversational games, and analyse how performance develops as a function of model characteristics like number of parameters, or type of training. We find that while there is a clear relationship between number of parameters and performance, there is still a wide spread of performance points within a given size bracket, which is to be accounted for by training parameters such as fine-tuning data quality and method. From a more practical angle, we also find a certain degree of unpredictability about performance across access methods, possible due to unexposed sampling parameters, and a, very welcome, performance stability against at least moderate weight quantisation during inference.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Scaling up language models has been shown to predictably improve performance and sample efficiency on a wide range of downstream tasks. This paper instead discusses an unpredictable phenomenon that we refer to as emergent abilities of large language models. We consider an ability to be emergent if it is not present in smaller models but is present in larger models. Thus, emergent abilities cannot be predicted simply by extrapolating the performance of smaller models. The existence of such emergence implies that additional scaling could further expand the range of capabilities of language models.

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a standardized set of forecasting questions. To address this gap, we introduce ForecastBench: a dynamic benchmark that evaluates the accuracy of ML systems on an automatically generated and regularly updated set of 1,000 forecasting questions. To avoid any possibility of data leakage, ForecastBench is comprised solely of questions about future events that have no known answer at the time of submission. We quantify the capabilities of current ML systems by collecting forecasts from expert (human) forecasters, the general public, and LLMs on a random subset of questions from the benchmark (N=200). While LLMs have achieved super-human performance on many benchmarks, they perform less well here: expert forecasters outperform the top-performing LLM (p-value <0.001). We display system and human scores in a public leaderboard at www.forecastbench.org.

Evaluating the general abilities of foundation models to tackle human-level tasks is a vital aspect of their development and application in the pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Traditional benchmarks, which rely on artificial datasets, may not accurately represent human-level capabilities. In this paper, we introduce AGIEval, a novel benchmark specifically designed to assess foundation model in the context of human-centric standardized exams, such as college entrance exams, law school admission tests, math competitions, and lawyer qualification tests. We evaluate several state-of-the-art foundation models, including GPT-4, ChatGPT, and Text-Davinci-003, using this benchmark. Impressively, GPT-4 surpasses average human performance on SAT, LSAT, and math competitions, attaining a 95% accuracy rate on the SAT Math test and a 92.5% accuracy on the English test of the Chinese national college entrance exam. This demonstrates the extraordinary performance of contemporary foundation models. In contrast, we also find that GPT-4 is less proficient in tasks that require complex reasoning or specific domain knowledge. Our comprehensive analyses of model capabilities (understanding, knowledge, reasoning, and calculation) reveal these models' strengths and limitations, providing valuable insights into future directions for enhancing their general capabilities. By concentrating on tasks pertinent to human cognition and decision-making, our benchmark delivers a more meaningful and robust evaluation of foundation models' performance in real-world scenarios. The data, code, and all model outputs are released in https://github.com/microsoft/AGIEval.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their capabilities, highlighting the need for comprehensive evaluation frameworks that extend beyond task-specific benchmarks. However, existing benchmarks often focus on isolated abilities, lacking a holistic framework for assessing LLM capabilities. To address this gap, we propose the Cognition-Domain-Task (CDT) framework, which comprehensively measures a model's capabilities across three dimensions. We expand the scope of model capability definitions at the cognitive level by incorporating the Cattell-Horn-Carroll cognitive theory, refining the categorization of model capabilities. We apply CDT in two directions: dataset capability evaluation and data selection. Experiments show that our capability metrics correlate well with downstream performance and can support effective dataset analysis and construction. The experiments on data selection also show significant improvements in both general and specific benchmarks, achieving scores of 44.3 and 45.4, with an increase of 1.6 and 2.2 points over the baselines, respectively. These results validate the effectiveness and practicality of CDT. Source code and models are available at https://github.com/Alessa-mo/CDT.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

In this paper we investigate the linguistic knowledge learned by a Neural Language Model (NLM) before and after a fine-tuning process and how this knowledge affects its predictions during several classification problems. We use a wide set of probing tasks, each of which corresponds to a distinct sentence-level feature extracted from different levels of linguistic annotation. We show that BERT is able to encode a wide range of linguistic characteristics, but it tends to lose this information when trained on specific downstream tasks. We also find that BERT's capacity to encode different kind of linguistic properties has a positive influence on its predictions: the more it stores readable linguistic information of a sentence, the higher will be its capacity of predicting the expected label assigned to that sentence.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.

A central question in natural language understanding (NLU) research is whether high performance demonstrates the models' strong reasoning capabilities. We present an extensive series of controlled experiments where pre-trained language models are exposed to data that have undergone specific corruption transformations. These involve removing instances of specific word classes and often lead to non-sensical sentences. Our results show that performance remains high on most GLUE tasks when the models are fine-tuned or tested on corrupted data, suggesting that they leverage other cues for prediction even in non-sensical contexts. Our proposed data transformations can be used to assess the extent to which a specific dataset constitutes a proper testbed for evaluating models' language understanding capabilities.

This comprehensive study evaluates the performance of OpenAI's o1-preview large language model across a diverse array of complex reasoning tasks, spanning multiple domains, including computer science, mathematics, natural sciences, medicine, linguistics, and social sciences. Through rigorous testing, o1-preview demonstrated remarkable capabilities, often achieving human-level or superior performance in areas ranging from coding challenges to scientific reasoning and from language processing to creative problem-solving. Key findings include: -83.3% success rate in solving complex competitive programming problems, surpassing many human experts. -Superior ability in generating coherent and accurate radiology reports, outperforming other evaluated models. -100% accuracy in high school-level mathematical reasoning tasks, providing detailed step-by-step solutions. -Advanced natural language inference capabilities across general and specialized domains like medicine. -Impressive performance in chip design tasks, outperforming specialized models in areas such as EDA script generation and bug analysis. -Remarkable proficiency in anthropology and geology, demonstrating deep understanding and reasoning in these specialized fields. -Strong capabilities in quantitative investing. O1 has comprehensive financial knowledge and statistical modeling skills. -Effective performance in social media analysis, including sentiment analysis and emotion recognition. The model excelled particularly in tasks requiring intricate reasoning and knowledge integration across various fields. While some limitations were observed, including occasional errors on simpler problems and challenges with certain highly specialized concepts, the overall results indicate significant progress towards artificial general intelligence.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

Recent years have witnessed a surge in the number of large language models (LLMs), yet efficiently managing and utilizing these vast resources remains a significant challenge. In this work, we explore how to learn compact representations of LLM abilities that can facilitate downstream tasks, such as model routing and performance prediction on new benchmarks. We frame this problem as estimating the probability that a given model will correctly answer a specific query. Inspired by the item response theory (IRT) in psychometrics, we model this probability as a function of three key factors: (i) the model's multi-skill ability vector, (2) the query's discrimination vector that separates models of differing skills, and (3) the query's difficulty scalar. To learn these parameters jointly, we introduce a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) network that couples model- and query-level embeddings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach leads to state-of-the-art performance in both model routing and benchmark accuracy prediction. Moreover, analysis validates that the learned parameters encode meaningful, interpretable information about model capabilities and query characteristics.

The surprising ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform well on complex reasoning with only few-shot chain-of-thought prompts is believed to emerge only in very large-scale models (100+ billion parameters). We show that such abilities can, in fact, be distilled down from GPT-3.5 (ge 175B) to T5 variants (le 11B). We propose model specialization, to specialize the model's ability towards a target task. The hypothesis is that large models (commonly viewed as larger than 100B) have strong modeling power, but are spread on a large spectrum of tasks. Small models (commonly viewed as smaller than 10B) have limited model capacity, but if we concentrate their capacity on a specific target task, the model can achieve a decent improved performance. We use multi-step math reasoning as our testbed because it is a very typical emergent ability. We show two important aspects of model abilities: (1). there exists a very complex balance/ tradeoff between language models' multi-dimensional abilities; (2). by paying the price of decreased generic ability, we can clearly lift up the scaling curve of models smaller than 10B towards a specialized multi-step math reasoning ability. We further give comprehensive discussions about important design choices for better generalization, including the tuning data format, the start model checkpoint, and a new model selection method. We hope our practice and discoveries can serve as an important attempt towards specialized smaller models in the new research paradigm set by LLMs.

Ensuring safe and effective use of AI requires understanding and anticipating its performance on novel tasks, from advanced scientific challenges to transformed workplace activities. So far, benchmarking has guided progress in AI, but it has offered limited explanatory and predictive power for general-purpose AI systems, given the low transferability across diverse tasks. In this paper, we introduce general scales for AI evaluation that can explain what common AI benchmarks really measure, extract ability profiles of AI systems, and predict their performance for new task instances, in- and out-of-distribution. Our fully-automated methodology builds on 18 newly-crafted rubrics that place instance demands on general scales that do not saturate. Illustrated for 15 large language models and 63 tasks, high explanatory power is unleashed from inspecting the demand and ability profiles, bringing insights on the sensitivity and specificity exhibited by different benchmarks, and how knowledge, metacognition and reasoning are affected by model size, chain-of-thought and distillation. Surprisingly, high predictive power at the instance level becomes possible using these demand levels, providing superior estimates over black-box baseline predictors based on embeddings or finetuning, especially in out-of-distribution settings (new tasks and new benchmarks). The scales, rubrics, battery, techniques and results presented here represent a major step for AI evaluation, underpinning the reliable deployment of AI in the years ahead. (Collaborative platform: https://kinds-of-intelligence-cfi.github.io/ADELE.)

Do large language models (LLMs) anticipate when they will answer correctly? To study this, we extract activations after a question is read but before any tokens are generated, and train linear probes to predict whether the model's forthcoming answer will be correct. Across three open-source model families ranging from 7 to 70 billion parameters, projections on this "in-advance correctness direction" trained on generic trivia questions predict success in distribution and on diverse out-of-distribution knowledge datasets, outperforming black-box baselines and verbalised predicted confidence. Predictive power saturates in intermediate layers, suggesting that self-assessment emerges mid-computation. Notably, generalisation falters on questions requiring mathematical reasoning. Moreover, for models responding "I don't know", doing so strongly correlates with the probe score, indicating that the same direction also captures confidence. By complementing previous results on truthfulness and other behaviours obtained with probes and sparse auto-encoders, our work contributes essential findings to elucidate LLM internals.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, but their ability to forecast future events remains understudied. A year ago, large language models struggle to come close to the accuracy of a human crowd. I evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs on 464 forecasting questions from Metaculus, comparing their performance against human superforecasters. Frontier models achieve Brier scores that ostensibly surpass the human crowd but still significantly underperform a group of superforecasters.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

Scaling laws describe the relationship between the size of language models and their capabilities. Unlike prior studies that evaluate a model's capability via loss or benchmarks, we estimate the number of knowledge bits a model stores. We focus on factual knowledge represented as tuples, such as (USA, capital, Washington D.C.) from a Wikipedia page. Through multiple controlled datasets, we establish that language models can and only can store 2 bits of knowledge per parameter, even when quantized to int8, and such knowledge can be flexibly extracted for downstream applications. Consequently, a 7B model can store 14B bits of knowledge, surpassing the English Wikipedia and textbooks combined based on our estimation. More broadly, we present 12 results on how (1) training duration, (2) model architecture, (3) quantization, (4) sparsity constraints such as MoE, and (5) data signal-to-noise ratio affect a model's knowledge storage capacity. Notable insights include: * The GPT-2 architecture, with rotary embedding, matches or even surpasses LLaMA/Mistral architectures in knowledge storage, particularly over shorter training durations. This arises because LLaMA/Mistral uses GatedMLP, which is less stable and harder to train. * Prepending training data with domain names (e.g., wikipedia.org) significantly increases a model's knowledge capacity. Language models can autonomously identify and prioritize domains rich in knowledge, optimizing their storage capacity.

The development and evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) have largely focused on individual capabilities. However, this overlooks the intersection of multiple abilities across different types of expertise that are often required for real-world tasks, which we term cross capabilities. To systematically explore this concept, we first define seven core individual capabilities and then pair them to form seven common cross capabilities, each supported by a manually constructed taxonomy. Building on these definitions, we introduce CrossEval, a benchmark comprising 1,400 human-annotated prompts, with 100 prompts for each individual and cross capability. To ensure reliable evaluation, we involve expert annotators to assess 4,200 model responses, gathering 8,400 human ratings with detailed explanations to serve as reference examples. Our findings reveal that, in both static evaluations and attempts to enhance specific abilities, current LLMs consistently exhibit the "Law of the Weakest Link," where cross-capability performance is significantly constrained by the weakest component. Specifically, across 58 cross-capability scores from 17 models, 38 scores are lower than all individual capabilities, while 20 fall between strong and weak, but closer to the weaker ability. These results highlight the under-performance of LLMs in cross-capability tasks, making the identification and improvement of the weakest capabilities a critical priority for future research to optimize performance in complex, multi-dimensional scenarios.

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

We present a scientific reasoning foundation model that aligns natural language with heterogeneous scientific representations. The model is pretrained on a 206B-token corpus spanning scientific text, pure sequences, and sequence-text pairs, then aligned via SFT on 40M instructions, annealed cold-start bootstrapping to elicit long-form chain-of-thought, and reinforcement learning with task-specific reward shaping, which instills deliberate scientific reasoning. It supports four capability families, covering up to 103 tasks across workflows: (i) faithful translation between text and scientific formats, (ii) text/knowledge extraction, (iii) property prediction, (iv) property classification, (v) unconditional and conditional sequence generation and design. Compared with specialist systems, our approach broadens instruction coverage, improves cross-domain generalization, and enhances fidelity. We detail data curation and training and show that cross-discipline learning strengthens transfer and downstream reliability. The model, instruct tuning datasets and the evaluation code are open-sourced at https://huggingface.co/SciReason and https://github.com/open-sciencelab/SciReason.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can correct their self-generated responses, but a decline in accuracy after self-correction is also witnessed. To have a deeper understanding of self-correction, we endeavor to decompose, evaluate, and analyze the self-correction behaviors of LLMs. By enumerating and analyzing answer correctness before and after self-correction, we decompose the self-correction capability into confidence (being confident to correct answers) and critique (turning wrong answers to correct) capabilities, and propose two metrics from a probabilistic perspective to measure these 2 capabilities, along with another metric for overall self-correction capability evaluation. Based on our decomposition and evaluation metrics, we conduct extensive experiments and draw some empirical conclusions. For example, we find different models can exhibit distinct behaviors: some models are confident while others are more critical. We also find the trade-off between the two capabilities (i.e. improving one can lead to a decline in the other) when manipulating model self-correction behavior by prompts or in-context learning. Further, we find a simple yet efficient strategy to improve self-correction capability by transforming Supervision Fine-Tuning (SFT) data format, and our strategy outperforms vanilla SFT in both capabilities and achieves much higher accuracy after self-correction. Our code will be publicly available on GitHub.

Recent studies have put into question the belief that emergent abilities in language models are exclusive to large models. This skepticism arises from two observations: 1) smaller models can also exhibit high performance on emergent abilities and 2) there is doubt on the discontinuous metrics used to measure these abilities. In this paper, we propose to study emergent abilities in the lens of pre-training loss, instead of model size or training compute. We demonstrate that the models with the same pre-training loss, but different model and data sizes, generate the same performance on various downstream tasks. We also discover that a model exhibits emergent abilities on certain tasks -- regardless of the continuity of metrics -- when its pre-training loss falls below a specific threshold. Before reaching this threshold, its performance remains at the level of random guessing. This inspires us to redefine emergent abilities as those that manifest in models with lower pre-training losses, highlighting that these abilities cannot be predicted by merely extrapolating the performance trends of models with higher pre-training losses.

Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a breadth of decisions in modern society. Using several classic examples from fisheries management, I demonstrate that selecting the model or models that produce the most accurate and precise forecast (measured by statistical scores) can sometimes lead to worse outcomes (measured by real-world objectives). This can create a forecast trap, in which the outcomes such as fish biomass or economic yield decline while the manager becomes increasingly convinced that these actions are consistent with the best models and data available. The forecast trap is not unique to this example, but a fundamental consequence of non-uniqueness of models. Existing practices promoting a broader set of models are the best way to avoid the trap.

Recognizing vulnerability is crucial for understanding and implementing targeted support to empower individuals in need. This is especially important at the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), where the court adapts Convention standards to meet actual individual needs and thus ensures effective human rights protection. However, the concept of vulnerability remains elusive at the ECtHR and no prior NLP research has dealt with it. To enable future research in this area, we present VECHR, a novel expert-annotated multi-label dataset comprising of vulnerability type classification and explanation rationale. We benchmark the performance of state-of-the-art models on VECHR from both prediction and explainability perspectives. Our results demonstrate the challenging nature of the task with lower prediction performance and limited agreement between models and experts. Further, we analyze the robustness of these models in dealing with out-of-domain (OOD) data and observe overall limited performance. Our dataset poses unique challenges offering significant room for improvement regarding performance, explainability, and robustness.

Recent works show that pre-trained language models (PTLMs), such as BERT, possess certain commonsense and factual knowledge. They suggest that it is promising to use PTLMs as "neural knowledge bases" via predicting masked words. Surprisingly, we find that this may not work for numerical commonsense knowledge (e.g., a bird usually has two legs). In this paper, we investigate whether and to what extent we can induce numerical commonsense knowledge from PTLMs as well as the robustness of this process. To study this, we introduce a novel probing task with a diagnostic dataset, NumerSense, containing 13.6k masked-word-prediction probes (10.5k for fine-tuning and 3.1k for testing). Our analysis reveals that: (1) BERT and its stronger variant RoBERTa perform poorly on the diagnostic dataset prior to any fine-tuning; (2) fine-tuning with distant supervision brings some improvement; (3) the best supervised model still performs poorly as compared to human performance (54.06% vs 96.3% in accuracy).

We examine the potential of ChatGPT and other large language models in predicting stock market returns using news headlines. We use ChatGPT to assess whether each headline is good, bad, or neutral for firms' stock prices. We document a significantly positive correlation between ChatGPT scores and subsequent daily stock returns. We find that ChatGPT outperforms traditional sentiment analysis methods. More basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability is an emerging capacity of complex language models. Long-short strategies based on ChatGPT-4 deliver the highest Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, we find predictability in both small and large stocks, suggesting market underreaction to company news. Predictability is stronger among smaller stocks and stocks with bad news, consistent with limits-to-arbitrage also playing an important role. Finally, we propose a new method to evaluate and understand the models' reasoning capabilities. Overall, our results suggest that incorporating advanced language models into the investment decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies.

Language models demonstrate both quantitative improvement and new qualitative capabilities with increasing scale. Despite their potentially transformative impact, these new capabilities are as yet poorly characterized. In order to inform future research, prepare for disruptive new model capabilities, and ameliorate socially harmful effects, it is vital that we understand the present and near-future capabilities and limitations of language models. To address this challenge, we introduce the Beyond the Imitation Game benchmark (BIG-bench). BIG-bench currently consists of 204 tasks, contributed by 442 authors across 132 institutions. Task topics are diverse, drawing problems from linguistics, childhood development, math, common-sense reasoning, biology, physics, social bias, software development, and beyond. BIG-bench focuses on tasks that are believed to be beyond the capabilities of current language models. We evaluate the behavior of OpenAI's GPT models, Google-internal dense transformer architectures, and Switch-style sparse transformers on BIG-bench, across model sizes spanning millions to hundreds of billions of parameters. In addition, a team of human expert raters performed all tasks in order to provide a strong baseline. Findings include: model performance and calibration both improve with scale, but are poor in absolute terms (and when compared with rater performance); performance is remarkably similar across model classes, though with benefits from sparsity; tasks that improve gradually and predictably commonly involve a large knowledge or memorization component, whereas tasks that exhibit "breakthrough" behavior at a critical scale often involve multiple steps or components, or brittle metrics; social bias typically increases with scale in settings with ambiguous context, but this can be improved with prompting.

We report the development of GPT-4, a large-scale, multimodal model which can accept image and text inputs and produce text outputs. While less capable than humans in many real-world scenarios, GPT-4 exhibits human-level performance on various professional and academic benchmarks, including passing a simulated bar exam with a score around the top 10% of test takers. GPT-4 is a Transformer-based model pre-trained to predict the next token in a document. The post-training alignment process results in improved performance on measures of factuality and adherence to desired behavior. A core component of this project was developing infrastructure and optimization methods that behave predictably across a wide range of scales. This allowed us to accurately predict some aspects of GPT-4's performance based on models trained with no more than 1/1,000th the compute of GPT-4.

We study the capabilities of speech processing systems trained simply to predict large amounts of transcripts of audio on the internet. When scaled to 680,000 hours of multilingual and multitask supervision, the resulting models generalize well to standard benchmarks and are often competitive with prior fully supervised results but in a zero-shot transfer setting without the need for any fine-tuning. When compared to humans, the models approach their accuracy and robustness. We are releasing models and inference code to serve as a foundation for further work on robust speech processing.

The largest experiments in machine learning now require resources far beyond the budget of all but a few institutions. Fortunately, it has recently been shown that the results of these huge experiments can often be extrapolated from the results of a sequence of far smaller, cheaper experiments. In this work, we show that not only can the extrapolation be done based on the size of the model, but on the size of the problem as well. By conducting a sequence of experiments using AlphaZero and Hex, we show that the performance achievable with a fixed amount of compute degrades predictably as the game gets larger and harder. Along with our main result, we further show that the test-time and train-time compute available to an agent can be traded off while maintaining performance.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

In recent years, with the rapid development of the depth and breadth of large language models' capabilities, various corresponding evaluation benchmarks have been emerging in increasing numbers. As a quantitative assessment tool for model performance, benchmarks are not only a core means to measure model capabilities but also a key element in guiding the direction of model development and promoting technological innovation. We systematically review the current status and development of large language model benchmarks for the first time, categorizing 283 representative benchmarks into three categories: general capabilities, domain-specific, and target-specific. General capability benchmarks cover aspects such as core linguistics, knowledge, and reasoning; domain-specific benchmarks focus on fields like natural sciences, humanities and social sciences, and engineering technology; target-specific benchmarks pay attention to risks, reliability, agents, etc. We point out that current benchmarks have problems such as inflated scores caused by data contamination, unfair evaluation due to cultural and linguistic biases, and lack of evaluation on process credibility and dynamic environments, and provide a referable design paradigm for future benchmark innovation.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have empowered LLM agents to autonomously collect world information, over which to conduct reasoning to solve complex problems. Given this capability, increasing interests have been put into employing LLM agents for predicting international events, which can influence decision-making and shape policy development on an international scale. Despite such a growing interest, there is a lack of a rigorous benchmark of LLM agents' forecasting capability and reliability. To address this gap, we introduce MIRAI, a novel benchmark designed to systematically evaluate LLM agents as temporal forecasters in the context of international events. Our benchmark features an agentic environment with tools for accessing an extensive database of historical, structured events and textual news articles. We refine the GDELT event database with careful cleaning and parsing to curate a series of relational prediction tasks with varying forecasting horizons, assessing LLM agents' abilities from short-term to long-term forecasting. We further implement APIs to enable LLM agents to utilize different tools via a code-based interface. In summary, MIRAI comprehensively evaluates the agents' capabilities in three dimensions: 1) autonomously source and integrate critical information from large global databases; 2) write codes using domain-specific APIs and libraries for tool-use; and 3) jointly reason over historical knowledge from diverse formats and time to accurately predict future events. Through comprehensive benchmarking, we aim to establish a reliable framework for assessing the capabilities of LLM agents in forecasting international events, thereby contributing to the development of more accurate and trustworthy models for international relation analysis.

Predicting case outcomes is useful but still an extremely hard task for attorneys and other Law professionals. It is not easy to search case information to extract valuable information as this requires dealing with huge data sets and their complexity. For instance, the complexity of Brazil legal system along with the high litigation rates makes this problem even harder. This paper introduces an approach for predicting Brazilian court decisions which is also able to predict whether the decision will be unanimous. We developed a working prototype which performs 79% of accuracy (F1-score) on a data set composed of 4,043 cases from a Brazilian court. To our knowledge, this is the first study to forecast judge decisions in Brazil.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

Fine-tuning large pre-trained models has become the de facto strategy for developing both task-specific and general-purpose machine learning systems, including developing models that are safe to deploy. Despite its clear importance, there has been minimal work that explains how fine-tuning alters the underlying capabilities learned by a model during pretraining: does fine-tuning yield entirely novel capabilities or does it just modulate existing ones? We address this question empirically in synthetic, controlled settings where we can use mechanistic interpretability tools (e.g., network pruning and probing) to understand how the model's underlying capabilities are changing. We perform an extensive analysis of the effects of fine-tuning in these settings, and show that: (i) fine-tuning rarely alters the underlying model capabilities; (ii) a minimal transformation, which we call a 'wrapper', is typically learned on top of the underlying model capabilities, creating the illusion that they have been modified; and (iii) further fine-tuning on a task where such hidden capabilities are relevant leads to sample-efficient 'revival' of the capability, i.e., the model begins reusing these capability after only a few gradient steps. This indicates that practitioners can unintentionally remove a model's safety wrapper merely by fine-tuning it on a, e.g., superficially unrelated, downstream task. We additionally perform analysis on language models trained on the TinyStories dataset to support our claims in a more realistic setup.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in understanding and generating responses to complex queries through large-scale pre-training. However, the efficacy of these models in memorizing and reasoning among large-scale structured knowledge, especially world knowledge that explicitly covers abundant factual information remains questionable. Addressing this gap, our research investigates whether LLMs can effectively store, recall, and reason with knowledge on a large scale comparable to latest knowledge bases (KBs) such as Wikidata. Specifically, we focus on three crucial aspects to study the viability: (1) the efficiency of LLMs with different sizes in memorizing the exact knowledge in the large-scale KB; (2) the flexibility of recalling the memorized knowledge in response to natural language queries; (3) the capability to infer new knowledge through reasoning. Our findings indicate that while LLMs hold promise as large-scale KBs capable of retrieving and responding with flexibility, enhancements in their reasoning capabilities are necessary to fully realize their potential.

Transformer language models have received widespread public attention, yet their generated text is often surprising even to NLP researchers. In this survey, we discuss over 250 recent studies of English language model behavior before task-specific fine-tuning. Language models possess basic capabilities in syntax, semantics, pragmatics, world knowledge, and reasoning, but these capabilities are sensitive to specific inputs and surface features. Despite dramatic increases in generated text quality as models scale to hundreds of billions of parameters, the models are still prone to unfactual responses, commonsense errors, memorized text, and social biases. Many of these weaknesses can be framed as over-generalizations or under-generalizations of learned patterns in text. We synthesize recent results to highlight what is currently known about what large language models can and cannot do.

Interestingly, LLMs yet struggle with some basic tasks that humans find trivial to handle, e.g., counting the number of character r's in the word "strawberry". There are several popular conjectures (e.g., tokenization, architecture and training data) regarding the reason for deficiency of LLMs in simple word-based counting problems, sharing the similar belief that such failure stems from model pretraining hence probably inevitable during deployment. In this paper, we carefully design multiple evaluation settings to investigate validity of prevalent conjectures. Meanwhile, we measure transferability of advanced mathematical and coding reasoning capabilities from specialized LLMs to simple counting tasks. Although specialized LLMs suffer from counting problems as well, we find conjectures about inherent deficiency of LLMs invalid and further seek opportunities to elicit knowledge and capabilities from LLMs that are beneficial to counting tasks. Compared with strategies such as finetuning and in-context learning that are commonly adopted to enhance performance on new or challenging tasks, we show that engaging reasoning is the most robust and efficient way to help LLMs better perceive tasks with more accurate responses. We hope our conjecture validation design could provide insights into the study of future critical failure modes of LLMs. Based on challenges in transferring advanced capabilities to much simpler tasks, we call for more attention to model capability acquisition and evaluation. We also highlight the importance of cultivating consciousness of "reasoning before responding" during model pretraining.

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they were trained to solve: next-word prediction over Internet text. By recognizing the pressures that this task exerts we can make predictions about the strategies that LLMs will adopt, allowing us to reason about when they will succeed or fail. This approach - which we call the teleological approach - leads us to identify three factors that we hypothesize will influence LLM accuracy: the probability of the task to be performed, the probability of the target output, and the probability of the provided input. We predict that LLMs will achieve higher accuracy when these probabilities are high than when they are low - even in deterministic settings where probability should not matter. To test our predictions, we evaluate two LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on eleven tasks, and we find robust evidence that LLMs are influenced by probability in the ways that we have hypothesized. In many cases, the experiments reveal surprising failure modes. For instance, GPT-4's accuracy at decoding a simple cipher is 51% when the output is a high-probability word sequence but only 13% when it is low-probability. These results show that AI practitioners should be careful about using LLMs in low-probability situations. More broadly, we conclude that we should not evaluate LLMs as if they are humans but should instead treat them as a distinct type of system - one that has been shaped by its own particular set of pressures.

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures. Empirical evidence consistently shows that even powerful Transformers often fail to outperform much simpler models, e.g., linear models, on TSF tasks; however, a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon remains limited. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of Transformers' limitations for TSF through the lens of In-Context Learning (ICL) theory. Specifically, under AR(p) data, we establish that: (1) Linear Self-Attention (LSA) models cannot achieve lower expected MSE than classical linear models for in-context forecasting; (2) as the context length approaches to infinity, LSA asymptotically recovers the optimal linear predictor; and (3) under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) style inference, predictions collapse to the mean exponentially. We empirically validate these findings through carefully designed experiments. Our theory not only sheds light on several previously underexplored phenomena but also offers practical insights for designing more effective forecasting architectures. We hope our work encourages the broader research community to revisit the fundamental theoretical limitations of TSF and to critically evaluate the direct application of increasingly sophisticated architectures without deeper scrutiny.

Improvements in language model capabilities are often attributed to increasing model size or training data, but in some cases smaller models trained on curated data or with different architectural decisions can outperform larger ones trained on more tokens. What accounts for this? To quantify the impact of these design choices, we meta-analyze 92 open-source pretrained models across a wide array of scales, including state-of-the-art open-weights models as well as less performant models and those with less conventional design decisions. We find that by incorporating features besides model size and number of training tokens, we can achieve a relative 3-28% increase in ability to predict downstream performance compared with using scale alone. Analysis of model design decisions reveal insights into data composition, such as the trade-off between language and code tasks at 15-25\% code, as well as the better performance of some architectural decisions such as choosing rotary over learned embeddings. Broadly, our framework lays a foundation for more systematic investigation of how model development choices shape final capabilities.

With LLMs shifting their role from statistical modeling of language to serving as general-purpose AI agents, how should LLM evaluations change? Arguably, a key ability of an AI agent is to flexibly combine, as needed, the basic skills it has learned. The capability to combine skills plays an important role in (human) pedagogy and also in a paper on emergence phenomena (Arora & Goyal, 2023). This work introduces Skill-Mix, a new evaluation to measure ability to combine skills. Using a list of N skills the evaluator repeatedly picks random subsets of k skills and asks the LLM to produce text combining that subset of skills. Since the number of subsets grows like N^k, for even modest k this evaluation will, with high probability, require the LLM to produce text significantly different from any text in the training set. The paper develops a methodology for (a) designing and administering such an evaluation, and (b) automatic grading (plus spot-checking by humans) of the results using GPT-4 as well as the open LLaMA-2 70B model. Administering a version of to popular chatbots gave results that, while generally in line with prior expectations, contained surprises. Sizeable differences exist among model capabilities that are not captured by their ranking on popular LLM leaderboards ("cramming for the leaderboard"). Furthermore, simple probability calculations indicate that GPT-4's reasonable performance on k=5 is suggestive of going beyond "stochastic parrot" behavior (Bender et al., 2021), i.e., it combines skills in ways that it had not seen during training. We sketch how the methodology can lead to a Skill-Mix based eco-system of open evaluations for AI capabilities of future models.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

As the research community aims to build better AI assistants that are more dynamic and personalized to the diversity of humans that they interact with, there is increased interest in evaluating the theory of mind capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Indeed, several recent studies suggest that LLM theory of mind capabilities are quite impressive, approximating human-level performance. Our paper aims to rebuke this narrative and argues instead that past studies were not directly measuring agent performance, potentially leading to findings that are illusory in nature as a result. We draw a strong distinction between what we call literal theory of mind i.e. measuring the agent's ability to predict the behavior of others and functional theory of mind i.e. adapting to agents in-context based on a rational response to predictions of their behavior. We find that top performing open source LLMs may display strong capabilities in literal theory of mind, depending on how they are prompted, but seem to struggle with functional theory of mind -- even when partner policies are exceedingly simple. Our work serves to highlight the double sided nature of inductive bias in LLMs when adapting to new situations. While this bias can lead to strong performance over limited horizons, it often hinders convergence to optimal long-term behavior.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

Large language models (LLMs) have a wealth of knowledge that allows them to excel in various Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Current research focuses on enhancing their performance within their existing knowledge. Despite their vast knowledge, LLMs are still limited by the amount of information they can accommodate and comprehend. Therefore, the ability to understand their own limitations on the unknows, referred to as self-knowledge, is of paramount importance. This study aims to evaluate LLMs' self-knowledge by assessing their ability to identify unanswerable or unknowable questions. We introduce an automated methodology to detect uncertainty in the responses of these models, providing a novel measure of their self-knowledge. We further introduce a unique dataset, SelfAware, consisting of unanswerable questions from five diverse categories and their answerable counterparts. Our extensive analysis, involving 20 LLMs including GPT-3, InstructGPT, and LLaMA, discovering an intrinsic capacity for self-knowledge within these models. Moreover, we demonstrate that in-context learning and instruction tuning can further enhance this self-knowledge. Despite this promising insight, our findings also highlight a considerable gap between the capabilities of these models and human proficiency in recognizing the limits of their knowledge.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

Artificial intelligence (AI) researchers have been developing and refining large language models (LLMs) that exhibit remarkable capabilities across a variety of domains and tasks, challenging our understanding of learning and cognition. The latest model developed by OpenAI, GPT-4, was trained using an unprecedented scale of compute and data. In this paper, we report on our investigation of an early version of GPT-4, when it was still in active development by OpenAI. We contend that (this early version of) GPT-4 is part of a new cohort of LLMs (along with ChatGPT and Google's PaLM for example) that exhibit more general intelligence than previous AI models. We discuss the rising capabilities and implications of these models. We demonstrate that, beyond its mastery of language, GPT-4 can solve novel and difficult tasks that span mathematics, coding, vision, medicine, law, psychology and more, without needing any special prompting. Moreover, in all of these tasks, GPT-4's performance is strikingly close to human-level performance, and often vastly surpasses prior models such as ChatGPT. Given the breadth and depth of GPT-4's capabilities, we believe that it could reasonably be viewed as an early (yet still incomplete) version of an artificial general intelligence (AGI) system. In our exploration of GPT-4, we put special emphasis on discovering its limitations, and we discuss the challenges ahead for advancing towards deeper and more comprehensive versions of AGI, including the possible need for pursuing a new paradigm that moves beyond next-word prediction. We conclude with reflections on societal influences of the recent technological leap and future research directions.

GPT series models, such as GPT-3, CodeX, InstructGPT, ChatGPT, and so on, have gained considerable attention due to their exceptional natural language processing capabilities. However, despite the abundance of research on the difference in capabilities between GPT series models and fine-tuned models, there has been limited attention given to the evolution of GPT series models' capabilities over time. To conduct a comprehensive analysis of the capabilities of GPT series models, we select six representative models, comprising two GPT-3 series models (i.e., davinci and text-davinci-001) and four GPT-3.5 series models (i.e., code-davinci-002, text-davinci-002, text-davinci-003, and gpt-3.5-turbo). We evaluate their performance on nine natural language understanding (NLU) tasks using 21 datasets. In particular, we compare the performance and robustness of different models for each task under zero-shot and few-shot scenarios. Our extensive experiments reveal that the overall ability of GPT series models on NLU tasks does not increase gradually as the models evolve, especially with the introduction of the RLHF training strategy. While this strategy enhances the models' ability to generate human-like responses, it also compromises their ability to solve some tasks. Furthermore, our findings indicate that there is still room for improvement in areas such as model robustness.

Large language models (LLMs) show impressive capabilities, matching and sometimes exceeding human performance in many domains. This study explores the potential of LLMs to augment judgement in forecasting tasks. We evaluated the impact on forecasting accuracy of two GPT-4-Turbo assistants: one designed to provide high-quality advice ('superforecasting'), and the other designed to be overconfident and base-rate-neglecting. Participants (N = 991) had the option to consult their assigned LLM assistant throughout the study, in contrast to a control group that used a less advanced model (DaVinci-003) without direct forecasting support. Our preregistered analyses reveal that LLM augmentation significantly enhances forecasting accuracy by 23% across both types of assistants, compared to the control group. This improvement occurs despite the superforecasting assistant's higher accuracy in predictions, indicating the augmentation's benefit is not solely due to model prediction accuracy. Exploratory analyses showed a pronounced effect in one forecasting item, without which we find that the superforecasting assistant increased accuracy by 43%, compared with 28% for the biased assistant. We further examine whether LLM augmentation disproportionately benefits less skilled forecasters, degrades the wisdom-of-the-crowd by reducing prediction diversity, or varies in effectiveness with question difficulty. Our findings do not consistently support these hypotheses. Our results suggest that access to an LLM assistant, even a biased one, can be a helpful decision aid in cognitively demanding tasks where the answer is not known at the time of interaction.

Memorization, or the tendency of large language models (LLMs) to output entire sequences from their training data verbatim, is a key concern for safely deploying language models. In particular, it is vital to minimize a model's memorization of sensitive datapoints such as those containing personal identifiable information (PII). The prevalence of such undesirable memorization can pose issues for model trainers, and may even require discarding an otherwise functional model. We therefore seek to predict which sequences will be memorized before a large model's full train-time by extrapolating the memorization behavior of lower-compute trial runs. We measure memorization of the Pythia model suite and plot scaling laws for forecasting memorization, allowing us to provide equi-compute recommendations to maximize the reliability (recall) of such predictions. We additionally provide further novel discoveries on the distribution of memorization scores across models and data. We release all code and data necessary to reproduce the results in this paper at https://github.com/EleutherAI/pythia

Large language models (LLMs) have recently been applied to forecasting tasks, with some works claiming these systems match or exceed human performance. In this paper, we argue that, as a community, we should be careful about such conclusions as evaluating LLM forecasters presents unique challenges. We identify two broad categories of issues: (1) difficulty in trusting evaluation results due to many forms of temporal leakage, and (2) difficulty in extrapolating from evaluation performance to real-world forecasting. Through systematic analysis and concrete examples from prior work, we demonstrate how evaluation flaws can raise concerns about current and future performance claims. We argue that more rigorous evaluation methodologies are needed to confidently assess the forecasting abilities of LLMs.

Rigorous and reproducible evaluation is critical for assessing the state of the art and for guiding scientific advances in Artificial Intelligence. Evaluation is challenging in practice due to several reasons, including benchmark saturation, lack of transparency in methods used for measurement, development challenges in extracting measurements for generative tasks, and, more generally, the extensive number of capabilities required for a well-rounded comparison across models. We make three contributions to alleviate the above challenges. First, we present Eureka, an open-source framework for standardizing evaluations of large foundation models beyond single-score reporting and rankings. Second, we introduce Eureka-Bench as an extensible collection of benchmarks testing capabilities that (i) are still challenging for state-of-the-art models and (ii) represent fundamental but overlooked language and multimodal capabilities. The inherent space for improvement in non-saturated benchmarks enables us to discover meaningful differences between models at a capability level. Third, using Eureka, we conduct an analysis of 12 state-of-the-art models, providing in-depth insights into failure understanding and model comparison, which can be leveraged to plan targeted improvements. In contrast to recent trends in reports and leaderboards showing absolute rankings and claims for one model or another to be the best, our analysis shows that there is no such best model. Different models have different strengths, but there are models that appear more often than others as best performers for some capabilities. Despite the recent improvements, current models still struggle with several fundamental capabilities including detailed image understanding, benefiting from multimodal input when available rather than fully relying on language, factuality and grounding for information retrieval, and over refusals.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

When making predictions, a language model must trade off how much it relies on its context vs. its prior knowledge. Choosing how sensitive the model is to its context is a fundamental functionality, as it enables the model to excel at tasks like retrieval-augmented generation and question-answering. In this paper, we search for a knob which controls this sensitivity, determining whether language models answer from the context or their prior knowledge. To guide this search, we design a task for controllable context sensitivity. In this task, we first feed the model a context (Paris is in England) and a question (Where is Paris?); we then instruct the model to either use its prior or contextual knowledge and evaluate whether it generates the correct answer for both intents (either France or England). When fine-tuned on this task, instruction-tuned versions of Llama-3.1, Mistral-v0.3, and Gemma-2 can solve it with high accuracy (85-95%). Analyzing these high-performing models, we narrow down which layers may be important to context sensitivity using a novel linear time algorithm. Then, in each model, we identify a 1-D subspace in a single layer that encodes whether the model follows context or prior knowledge. Interestingly, while we identify this subspace in a fine-tuned model, we find that the exact same subspace serves as an effective knob in not only that model but also non-fine-tuned instruct and base models of that model family. Finally, we show a strong correlation between a model's performance and how distinctly it separates context-agreeing from context-ignoring answers in this subspace. These results suggest a single subspace facilitates how the model chooses between context and prior knowledge, hinting at a simple fundamental mechanism that controls this behavior.

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have outperformed human experts in predicting the results of neuroscience experiments (Luo et al., 2024). What is the basis for this performance? One possibility is that statistical patterns in that specific scientific literature, as opposed to emergent reasoning abilities arising from broader training, underlie LLMs' performance. To evaluate this possibility, we trained (next word prediction) a relatively small 124M-parameter GPT-2 model on 1.3 billion tokens of domain-specific knowledge. Despite being orders of magnitude smaller than larger LLMs trained on trillions of tokens, small models achieved expert-level performance in predicting neuroscience results. Small models trained on the neuroscience literature succeeded when they were trained from scratch using a tokenizer specifically trained on neuroscience text or when the neuroscience literature was used to finetune a pretrained GPT-2. Our results indicate that expert-level performance may be attained by even small LLMs through domain-specific, auto-regressive training approaches.

Existing benchmarks for frontier models often test specialized, ``PhD-level'' knowledge that is difficult for non-experts to grasp. In contrast, we present a benchmark based on the NPR Sunday Puzzle Challenge that requires only general knowledge. Our benchmark is challenging for both humans and models, however correct solutions are easy to verify, and models' mistakes are easy to spot. Our work reveals capability gaps that are not evident in existing benchmarks: OpenAI o1 significantly outperforms other reasoning models that are on par on benchmarks that test specialized knowledge. Furthermore, our analysis of reasoning outputs uncovers new kinds of failures. DeepSeek R1, for instance, often concedes with ``I give up'' before providing an answer that it knows is wrong. R1 can also be remarkably ``uncertain'' in its output and in rare cases, it does not ``finish thinking,'' which suggests the need for an inference-time technique to ``wrap up'' before the context window limit is reached. We also quantify the effectiveness of reasoning longer with R1 and Gemini Thinking to identify the point beyond which more reasoning is unlikely to improve accuracy on our benchmark.

Faithful evaluation of language model capabilities is crucial for deriving actionable insights that can inform model development. However, rigorous causal evaluations in this domain face significant methodological challenges, including complex confounding effects and prohibitive computational costs associated with extensive retraining. To tackle these challenges, we propose a causal representation learning framework wherein observed benchmark performance is modeled as a linear transformation of a few latent capability factors. Crucially, these latent factors are identified as causally interrelated after appropriately controlling for the base model as a common confounder. Applying this approach to a comprehensive dataset encompassing over 1500 models evaluated across six benchmarks from the Open LLM Leaderboard, we identify a concise three-node linear causal structure that reliably explains the observed performance variations. Further interpretation of this causal structure provides substantial scientific insights beyond simple numerical rankings: specifically, we reveal a clear causal direction starting from general problem-solving capabilities, advancing through instruction-following proficiency, and culminating in mathematical reasoning ability. Our results underscore the essential role of carefully controlling base model variations during evaluation, a step critical to accurately uncovering the underlying causal relationships among latent model capabilities.

Interpretability research now offers a variety of techniques for identifying abstract internal mechanisms in neural networks. Can such techniques be used to predict how models will behave on out-of-distribution examples? In this work, we provide a positive answer to this question. Through a diverse set of language modeling tasks--including symbol manipulation, knowledge retrieval, and instruction following--we show that the most robust features for correctness prediction are those that play a distinctive causal role in the model's behavior. Specifically, we propose two methods that leverage causal mechanisms to predict the correctness of model outputs: counterfactual simulation (checking whether key causal variables are realized) and value probing (using the values of those variables to make predictions). Both achieve high AUC-ROC in distribution and outperform methods that rely on causal-agnostic features in out-of-distribution settings, where predicting model behaviors is more crucial. Our work thus highlights a novel and significant application for internal causal analysis of language models.

Language models show a surprising range of capabilities, but the source of their apparent competence is unclear. Do these networks just memorize a collection of surface statistics, or do they rely on internal representations of the process that generates the sequences they see? We investigate this question by applying a variant of the GPT model to the task of predicting legal moves in a simple board game, Othello. Although the network has no a priori knowledge of the game or its rules, we uncover evidence of an emergent nonlinear internal representation of the board state. Interventional experiments indicate this representation can be used to control the output of the network and create "latent saliency maps" that can help explain predictions in human terms.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have lately been on the spotlight of researchers, businesses, and consumers alike. While the linguistic capabilities of such models have been studied extensively, there is growing interest in investigating them as cognitive subjects. In the present work I examine GPT-3 and ChatGPT capabilities on an limited-data inductive reasoning task from the cognitive science literature. The results suggest that these models' cognitive judgements are not human-like.

Pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) encapsulate large amounts of knowledge and take enormous amounts of compute to train. We make use of this resource, together with the observation that LLMs are able to transfer knowledge and performance from one domain or even modality to another seemingly-unrelated area, to help with multivariate demand time series forecasting. Attention in transformer-based methods requires something worth attending to -- more than just samples of a time-series. We explore different methods to map multivariate input time series into the LLM token embedding space. In particular, our novel multivariate patching strategy to embed time series features into decoder-only pre-trained Transformers produces results competitive with state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. We also use recently-developed weight-based diagnostics to validate our findings.

This technical report introduces the EXAONE 3.5 instruction-tuned language models, developed and released by LG AI Research. The EXAONE 3.5 language models are offered in three configurations: 32B, 7.8B, and 2.4B. These models feature several standout capabilities: 1) exceptional instruction following capabilities in real-world scenarios, achieving the highest scores across seven benchmarks, 2) outstanding long-context comprehension, attaining the top performance in four benchmarks, and 3) competitive results compared to state-of-the-art open models of similar sizes across nine general benchmarks. The EXAONE 3.5 language models are open to anyone for research purposes and can be downloaded from https://huggingface.co/LGAI-EXAONE. For commercial use, please reach out to the official contact point of LG AI Research: contact_us@lgresearch.ai.

Legal judgment prediction is the task of automatically predicting the outcome of a court case, given a text describing the case's facts. Previous work on using neural models for this task has focused on Chinese; only feature-based models (e.g., using bags of words and topics) have been considered in English. We release a new English legal judgment prediction dataset, containing cases from the European Court of Human Rights. We evaluate a broad variety of neural models on the new dataset, establishing strong baselines that surpass previous feature-based models in three tasks: (1) binary violation classification; (2) multi-label classification; (3) case importance prediction. We also explore if models are biased towards demographic information via data anonymization. As a side-product, we propose a hierarchical version of BERT, which bypasses BERT's length limitation.

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on standard benchmark datasets. This persistent gap can be attributed to the black-box nature of deep learning architectures and the inherent limitations of current evaluation frameworks, which frequently lack the capacity to provide clear, quantitative insights into the specific strengths and weaknesses of different models, thereby complicating the selection of appropriate models for particular forecasting scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a synthetic data-driven evaluation paradigm, SynTSBench, that systematically assesses fundamental modeling capabilities of time series forecasting models through programmable feature configuration. Our framework isolates confounding factors and establishes an interpretable evaluation system with three core analytical dimensions: (1) temporal feature decomposition and capability mapping, which enables systematic evaluation of model capacities to learn specific pattern types; (2) robustness analysis under data irregularities, which quantifies noise tolerance thresholds and anomaly recovery capabilities; and (3) theoretical optimum benchmarking, which establishes performance boundaries for each pattern type-enabling direct comparison between model predictions and mathematical optima. Our experiments show that current deep learning models do not universally approach optimal baselines across all types of temporal features.The code is available at https://github.com/TanQitai/SynTSBench

We tasked 16 state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) with estimating the likelihood of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) emerging by 2030. To assess the quality of these forecasts, we implemented an automated peer review process (LLM-PR). The LLMs' estimates varied widely, ranging from 3% (Reka- Core) to 47.6% (GPT-4o), with a median of 12.5%. These estimates closely align with a recent expert survey that projected a 10% likelihood of AGI by 2027, underscoring the relevance of LLMs in forecasting complex, speculative scenarios. The LLM-PR process demonstrated strong reliability, evidenced by a high Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC = 0.79), reflecting notable consistency in scoring across the models. Among the models, Pplx-70b-online emerged as the top performer, while Gemini-1.5-pro-api ranked the lowest. A cross-comparison with external benchmarks, such as LMSYS Chatbot Arena, revealed that LLM rankings remained consistent across different evaluation methods, suggesting that existing benchmarks may not encapsulate some of the skills relevant for AGI prediction. We further explored the use of weighting schemes based on external benchmarks, optimizing the alignment of LLMs' predictions with human expert forecasts. This analysis led to the development of a new, 'AGI benchmark' designed to highlight performance differences in AGI-related tasks. Our findings offer insights into LLMs' capabilities in speculative, interdisciplinary forecasting tasks and emphasize the growing need for innovative evaluation frameworks for assessing AI performance in complex, uncertain real-world scenarios.

Scientific discoveries often hinge on synthesizing decades of research, a task that potentially outstrips human information processing capacities. Large language models (LLMs) offer a solution. LLMs trained on the vast scientific literature could potentially integrate noisy yet interrelated findings to forecast novel results better than human experts. To evaluate this possibility, we created BrainBench, a forward-looking benchmark for predicting neuroscience results. We find that LLMs surpass experts in predicting experimental outcomes. BrainGPT, an LLM we tuned on the neuroscience literature, performed better yet. Like human experts, when LLMs were confident in their predictions, they were more likely to be correct, which presages a future where humans and LLMs team together to make discoveries. Our approach is not neuroscience-specific and is transferable to other knowledge-intensive endeavors.

Deep-learning models can extract a rich assortment of features from data. Which features a model uses depends not only on predictivity-how reliably a feature indicates train-set labels-but also on availability-how easily the feature can be extracted, or leveraged, from inputs. The literature on shortcut learning has noted examples in which models privilege one feature over another, for example texture over shape and image backgrounds over foreground objects. Here, we test hypotheses about which input properties are more available to a model, and systematically study how predictivity and availability interact to shape models' feature use. We construct a minimal, explicit generative framework for synthesizing classification datasets with two latent features that vary in predictivity and in factors we hypothesize to relate to availability, and quantify a model's shortcut bias-its over-reliance on the shortcut (more available, less predictive) feature at the expense of the core (less available, more predictive) feature. We find that linear models are relatively unbiased, but introducing a single hidden layer with ReLU or Tanh units yields a bias. Our empirical findings are consistent with a theoretical account based on Neural Tangent Kernels. Finally, we study how models used in practice trade off predictivity and availability in naturalistic datasets, discovering availability manipulations which increase models' degree of shortcut bias. Taken together, these findings suggest that the propensity to learn shortcut features is a fundamental characteristic of deep nonlinear architectures warranting systematic study given its role in shaping how models solve tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) cannot be trusted for economic forecasts during periods covered by their training data. We provide the first systematic evaluation of LLMs' memorization of economic and financial data, including major economic indicators, news headlines, stock returns, and conference calls. Our findings show that LLMs can perfectly recall the exact numerical values of key economic variables from before their knowledge cutoff dates. This recall appears to be randomly distributed across different dates and data types. This selective perfect memory creates a fundamental issue -- when testing forecasting capabilities before their knowledge cutoff dates, we cannot distinguish whether LLMs are forecasting or simply accessing memorized data. Explicit instructions to respect historical data boundaries fail to prevent LLMs from achieving recall-level accuracy in forecasting tasks. Further, LLMs seem exceptional at reconstructing masked entities from minimal contextual clues, suggesting that masking provides inadequate protection against motivated reasoning. Our findings raise concerns about using LLMs to forecast historical data or backtest trading strategies, as their apparent predictive success may merely reflect memorization rather than genuine economic insight. Any application where future knowledge would change LLMs' outputs can be affected by memorization. In contrast, consistent with the absence of data contamination, LLMs cannot recall data after their knowledge cutoff date.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

Weather forecasting is critical for a range of human activities including transportation, agriculture, industry, as well as the safety of the general public. Machine learning models have the potential to transform the complex weather prediction pipeline, but current approaches still rely on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, limiting forecast speed and accuracy. Here we demonstrate that a machine learning model can replace the entire operational NWP pipeline. Aardvark Weather, an end-to-end data-driven weather prediction system, ingests raw observations and outputs global gridded forecasts and local station forecasts. Further, it can be optimised end-to-end to maximise performance over quantities of interest. Global forecasts outperform an operational NWP baseline for multiple variables and lead times. Local station forecasts are skillful up to ten days lead time and achieve comparable and often lower errors than a post-processed global NWP baseline and a state-of-the-art end-to-end forecasting system with input from human forecasters. These forecasts are produced with a remarkably simple neural process model using just 8% of the input data and three orders of magnitude less compute than existing NWP and hybrid AI-NWP methods. We anticipate that Aardvark Weather will be the starting point for a new generation of end-to-end machine learning models for medium-range forecasting that will reduce computational costs by orders of magnitude and enable the rapid and cheap creation of bespoke models for users in a variety of fields, including for the developing world where state-of-the-art local models are not currently available.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) highlights the critical importance of conducting thorough evaluations to discern their comparative advantages, limitations, and optimal use cases. Particularly important is assessing their capacity to accurately retrieve information included in a given prompt. A model's ability to do this significantly influences how effectively it can utilize contextual details, thus impacting its practical efficacy and dependability in real-world applications. Our research analyzes the in-context recall performance of various LLMs using the needle-in-a-haystack method. In this approach, a factoid (the "needle") is embedded within a block of filler text (the "haystack"), which the model is asked to retrieve. We assess the recall performance of each model across various haystack lengths and with varying needle placements to identify performance patterns. This study demonstrates that an LLM's recall capability is not only contingent upon the prompt's content but also may be compromised by biases in its training data. Conversely, adjustments to model architecture, training strategy, or fine-tuning can improve performance. Our analysis provides insight into LLM behavior, offering direction for the development of more effective applications of LLMs.

We investigate the problem of determining the predictive confidence (or, conversely, uncertainty) of a neural classifier through the lens of low-resource languages. By training models on sub-sampled datasets in three different languages, we assess the quality of estimates from a wide array of approaches and their dependence on the amount of available data. We find that while approaches based on pre-trained models and ensembles achieve the best results overall, the quality of uncertainty estimates can surprisingly suffer with more data. We also perform a qualitative analysis of uncertainties on sequences, discovering that a model's total uncertainty seems to be influenced to a large degree by its data uncertainty, not model uncertainty. All model implementations are open-sourced in a software package.

Recent studies of the emergent capabilities of transformer-based Natural Language Understanding (NLU) models have indicated that they have an understanding of lexical and compositional semantics. We provide evidence that suggests these claims should be taken with a grain of salt: we find that state-of-the-art Natural Language Inference (NLI) models are sensitive towards minor semantics preserving surface-form variations, which lead to sizable inconsistent model decisions during inference. Notably, this behaviour differs from valid and in-depth comprehension of compositional semantics, however does neither emerge when evaluating model accuracy on standard benchmarks nor when probing for syntactic, monotonic, and logically robust reasoning. We propose a novel framework to measure the extent of semantic sensitivity. To this end, we evaluate NLI models on adversarially generated examples containing minor semantics-preserving surface-form input noise. This is achieved using conditional text generation, with the explicit condition that the NLI model predicts the relationship between the original and adversarial inputs as a symmetric equivalence entailment. We systematically study the effects of the phenomenon across NLI models for in- and out-of- domain settings. Our experiments show that semantic sensitivity causes performance degradations of 12.92% and 23.71% average over in- and out-of- domain settings, respectively. We further perform ablation studies, analysing this phenomenon across models, datasets, and variations in inference and show that semantic sensitivity can lead to major inconsistency within model predictions.

Generalist foundation models such as GPT-4 have displayed surprising capabilities in a wide variety of domains and tasks. Yet, there is a prevalent assumption that they cannot match specialist capabilities of fine-tuned models. For example, most explorations to date on medical competency benchmarks have leveraged domain-specific training, as exemplified by efforts on BioGPT and Med-PaLM. We build on a prior study of GPT-4's capabilities on medical challenge benchmarks in the absence of special training. Rather than using simple prompting to highlight the model's out-of-the-box capabilities, we perform a systematic exploration of prompt engineering. We find that prompting innovation can unlock deeper specialist capabilities and show that GPT-4 easily tops prior leading results for medical benchmarks. The prompting methods we explore are general purpose, and make no specific use of domain expertise, removing the need for expert-curated content. Our experimental design carefully controls for overfitting during the prompt engineering process. We introduce Medprompt, based on a composition of several prompting strategies. With Medprompt, GPT-4 achieves state-of-the-art results on all nine of the benchmark datasets in the MultiMedQA suite. The method outperforms leading specialist models such as Med-PaLM 2 by a significant margin with an order of magnitude fewer calls to the model. Steering GPT-4 with Medprompt achieves a 27% reduction in error rate on the MedQA dataset over the best methods to date achieved with specialist models and surpasses a score of 90% for the first time. Beyond medical problems, we show the power of Medprompt to generalize to other domains and provide evidence for the broad applicability of the approach via studies of the strategy on exams in electrical engineering, machine learning, philosophy, accounting, law, nursing, and clinical psychology.