Daily Papers

With the proliferation of red-teaming strategies for Large Language Models (LLMs), the deficiency in the literature about improving the safety and robustness of LLM defense strategies is becoming increasingly pronounced. This paper introduces the LLM-based sentinel model as a plug-and-play prefix module designed to reconstruct the input prompt with just a few (<30) additional tokens, effectively reducing toxicity in responses from target LLMs. The sentinel model naturally overcomes the parameter inefficiency and limited model accessibility for fine-tuning large target models. We employ an interleaved training regimen using Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) to optimize both red team and sentinel models dynamically, incorporating a value head-sharing mechanism inspired by the multi-agent centralized critic to manage the complex interplay between agents. Our extensive experiments across text-to-text and text-to-image demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in mitigating toxic outputs, even when dealing with larger models like Llama-2, GPT-3.5 and Stable-Diffusion, highlighting the potential of our framework in enhancing safety and robustness in various applications.

As the development of large language models (LLMs) rapidly advances, securing these models effectively without compromising their utility has become a pivotal area of research. However, current defense strategies against jailbreak attacks (i.e., efforts to bypass security protocols) often suffer from limited adaptability, restricted general capability, and high cost. To address these challenges, we introduce SafeAligner, a methodology implemented at the decoding stage to fortify defenses against jailbreak attacks. We begin by developing two specialized models: the Sentinel Model, which is trained to foster safety, and the Intruder Model, designed to generate riskier responses. SafeAligner leverages the disparity in security levels between the responses from these models to differentiate between harmful and beneficial tokens, effectively guiding the safety alignment by altering the output token distribution of the target model. Extensive experiments show that SafeAligner can increase the likelihood of beneficial tokens, while reducing the occurrence of harmful ones, thereby ensuring secure alignment with minimal loss to generality.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly powerful but remain vulnerable to prompt injection attacks, where malicious inputs cause the model to deviate from its intended instructions. This paper introduces Sentinel, a novel detection model, qualifire/prompt-injection-sentinel, based on the \answerdotai/ModernBERT-large architecture. By leveraging ModernBERT's advanced features and fine-tuning on an extensive and diverse dataset comprising a few open-source and private collections, Sentinel achieves state-of-the-art performance. This dataset amalgamates varied attack types, from role-playing and instruction hijacking to attempts to generate biased content, alongside a broad spectrum of benign instructions, with private datasets specifically targeting nuanced error correction and real-world misclassifications. On a comprehensive, unseen internal test set, Sentinel demonstrates an average accuracy of 0.987 and an F1-score of 0.980. Furthermore, when evaluated on public benchmarks, it consistently outperforms strong baselines like protectai/deberta-v3-base-prompt-injection-v2. This work details Sentinel's architecture, its meticulous dataset curation, its training methodology, and a thorough evaluation, highlighting its superior detection capabilities.

Recent neural network sequence models with softmax classifiers have achieved their best language modeling performance only with very large hidden states and large vocabularies. Even then they struggle to predict rare or unseen words even if the context makes the prediction unambiguous. We introduce the pointer sentinel mixture architecture for neural sequence models which has the ability to either reproduce a word from the recent context or produce a word from a standard softmax classifier. Our pointer sentinel-LSTM model achieves state of the art language modeling performance on the Penn Treebank (70.9 perplexity) while using far fewer parameters than a standard softmax LSTM. In order to evaluate how well language models can exploit longer contexts and deal with more realistic vocabularies and larger corpora we also introduce the freely available WikiText corpus.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Foundation models (FMs), pre-trained on massive unlabelled datasets, have the potential to drastically change AI applications in ocean science, where labelled data are often sparse and expensive to collect. In this work, we describe a new foundation model using the Prithvi-EO Vision Transformer architecture which has been pre-trained to reconstruct data from the Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI). We evaluate the model by fine-tuning on two downstream marine earth observation tasks. We first assess model performance compared to current baseline models used to quantify chlorophyll concentration. We then evaluate the FMs ability to refine remote sensing-based estimates of ocean primary production. Our results demonstrate the utility of self-trained FMs for marine monitoring, in particular for making use of small amounts of high quality labelled data and in capturing detailed spatial patterns of ocean colour whilst matching point observations. We conclude that this new generation of geospatial AI models has the potential to provide more robust, data-driven insights into ocean ecosystems and their role in global climate processes.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promising efficacy across various tasks, becoming powerful tools in numerous aspects of human life. However, Transformer-based LLMs suffer a performance degradation when modeling long-term contexts due to they discard some information to reduce computational overhead. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective method to enable LLMs to take a deep breath, encouraging them to summarize information contained within discrete text chunks. Specifically, we segment the text into multiple chunks and insert special token <SR> at the end of each chunk. We then modify the attention mask to integrate the chunk's information into the corresponding <SR> token. This facilitates LLMs to interpret information not only from historical individual tokens but also from the <SR> token, aggregating the chunk's semantic information. Experiments on language modeling and out-of-domain downstream tasks validate the superiority of our approach.

Air pollution poses a significant threat to public health and well-being, particularly in urban areas. This study introduces a series of machine-learning models that integrate data from the Sentinel-5P satellite, meteorological conditions, and topological characteristics to forecast future levels of five major pollutants. The investigation delineates the process of data collection, detailing the combination of diverse data sources utilized in the study. Through experiments conducted in the Milan metropolitan area, the models demonstrate their efficacy in predicting pollutant levels for the forthcoming day, achieving a percentage error of around 30%. The proposed models are advantageous as they are independent of monitoring stations, facilitating their use in areas without existing infrastructure. Additionally, we have released the collected dataset to the public, aiming to stimulate further research in this field. This research contributes to advancing our understanding of urban air quality dynamics and emphasizes the importance of amalgamating satellite, meteorological, and topographical data to develop robust pollution forecasting models.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) enhances large language models (LLMs) with external context, but retrieved passages are often lengthy, noisy, or exceed input limits. Existing compression methods typically require supervised training of dedicated compression models, increasing cost and reducing portability. We propose Sentinel, a lightweight sentence-level compression framework that reframes context filtering as an attention-based understanding task. Rather than training a compression model, Sentinel probes decoder attention from an off-the-shelf 0.5B proxy LLM using a lightweight classifier to identify sentence relevance. Empirically, we find that query-context relevance estimation is consistent across model scales, with 0.5B proxies closely matching the behaviors of larger models. On the LongBench benchmark, Sentinel achieves up to 5times compression while matching the QA performance of 7B-scale compression systems. Our results suggest that probing native attention signals enables fast, effective, and question-aware context compression. Code available at: https://github.com/yzhangchuck/Sentinel.

Earthquake monitoring is necessary to promptly identify the affected areas, the severity of the events, and, finally, to estimate damages and plan the actions needed for the restoration process. The use of seismic stations to monitor the strength and origin of earthquakes is limited when dealing with remote areas (we cannot have global capillary coverage). Identification and analysis of all affected areas is mandatory to support areas not monitored by traditional stations. Using social media images in crisis management has proven effective in various situations. However, they are still limited by the possibility of using communication infrastructures in case of an earthquake and by the presence of people in the area. Moreover, social media images and messages cannot be used to estimate the actual severity of earthquakes and their characteristics effectively. The employment of satellites to monitor changes around the globe grants the possibility of exploiting instrumentation that is not limited by the visible spectrum, the presence of land infrastructures, and people in the affected areas. In this work, we propose a new dataset composed of images taken from Sentinel-1 and a new series of tasks to help monitor earthquakes from a new detailed view. Coupled with the data, we provide a series of traditional machine learning and deep learning models as baselines to assess the effectiveness of ML-based models in earthquake analysis.

This paper presents a novel approach for detecting ChatGPT-generated vs. human-written text using language models. To this end, we first collected and released a pre-processed dataset named OpenGPTText, which consists of rephrased content generated using ChatGPT. We then designed, implemented, and trained two different models for text classification, using Robustly Optimized BERT Pretraining Approach (RoBERTa) and Text-to-Text Transfer Transformer (T5), respectively. Our models achieved remarkable results, with an accuracy of over 97% on the test dataset, as evaluated through various metrics. Furthermore, we conducted an interpretability study to showcase our model's ability to extract and differentiate key features between human-written and ChatGPT-generated text. Our findings provide important insights into the effective use of language models to detect generated text.

Mapping buildings and roads automatically with remote sensing typically requires high-resolution imagery, which is expensive to obtain and often sparsely available. In this work we demonstrate how multiple 10 m resolution Sentinel-2 images can be used to generate 50 cm resolution building and road segmentation masks. This is done by training a `student' model with access to Sentinel-2 images to reproduce the predictions of a `teacher' model which has access to corresponding high-resolution imagery. While the predictions do not have all the fine detail of the teacher model, we find that we are able to retain much of the performance: for building segmentation we achieve 79.0\% mIoU, compared to the high-resolution teacher model accuracy of 85.5\% mIoU. We also describe two related methods that work on Sentinel-2 imagery: one for counting individual buildings which achieves R^2 = 0.91 against true counts and one for predicting building height with 1.5 meter mean absolute error. This work opens up new possibilities for using freely available Sentinel-2 imagery for a range of tasks that previously could only be done with high-resolution satellite imagery.

Attention-based neural encoder-decoder frameworks have been widely adopted for image captioning. Most methods force visual attention to be active for every generated word. However, the decoder likely requires little to no visual information from the image to predict non-visual words such as "the" and "of". Other words that may seem visual can often be predicted reliably just from the language model e.g., "sign" after "behind a red stop" or "phone" following "talking on a cell". In this paper, we propose a novel adaptive attention model with a visual sentinel. At each time step, our model decides whether to attend to the image (and if so, to which regions) or to the visual sentinel. The model decides whether to attend to the image and where, in order to extract meaningful information for sequential word generation. We test our method on the COCO image captioning 2015 challenge dataset and Flickr30K. Our approach sets the new state-of-the-art by a significant margin.

Computer-using agents powered by Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated human-like capabilities in operating digital environments like mobile platforms. While these agents hold great promise for advancing digital automation, their potential for unsafe operations, such as system compromise and privacy leakage, is raising significant concerns. Detecting these safety concerns across the vast and complex operational space of mobile environments presents a formidable challenge that remains critically underexplored. To establish a foundation for mobile agent safety research, we introduce MobileRisk-Live, a dynamic sandbox environment accompanied by a safety detection benchmark comprising realistic trajectories with fine-grained annotations. Built upon this, we propose OS-Sentinel, a novel hybrid safety detection framework that synergistically combines a Formal Verifier for detecting explicit system-level violations with a VLM-based Contextual Judge for assessing contextual risks and agent actions. Experiments show that OS-Sentinel achieves 10%-30% improvements over existing approaches across multiple metrics. Further analysis provides critical insights that foster the development of safer and more reliable autonomous mobile agents.

Landslides are one of the most critical and destructive geohazards. Widespread development of human activities and settlements combined with the effects of climate change on weather are resulting in a high increase in the frequency and destructive power of landslides, making them a major threat to human life and the economy. In this paper, we explore methodologies to map newly-occurred landslides using Sentinel-2 imagery automatically. All approaches presented are framed as a bi-temporal change detection problem, requiring only a pair of Sentinel-2 images, taken respectively before and after a landslide-triggering event. Furthermore, we introduce a novel deep learning architecture for fusing Sentinel-2 bi-temporal image pairs with Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data, showcasing its promising performances w.r.t. other change detection models in the literature. As a parallel task, we address limitations in existing datasets by creating a novel geodatabase, which includes manually validated open-access landslide inventories over heterogeneous ecoregions of the world. We release both code and dataset with an open-source license.

In this work we introduce Sen4AgriNet, a Sentinel-2 based time series multi country benchmark dataset, tailored for agricultural monitoring applications with Machine and Deep Learning. Sen4AgriNet dataset is annotated from farmer declarations collected via the Land Parcel Identification System (LPIS) for harmonizing country wide labels. These declarations have only recently been made available as open data, allowing for the first time the labeling of satellite imagery from ground truth data. We proceed to propose and standardise a new crop type taxonomy across Europe that address Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) needs, based on the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Indicative Crop Classification scheme. Sen4AgriNet is the only multi-country, multi-year dataset that includes all spectral information. It is constructed to cover the period 2016-2020 for Catalonia and France, while it can be extended to include additional countries. Currently, it contains 42.5 million parcels, which makes it significantly larger than other available archives. We extract two sub-datasets to highlight its value for diverse Deep Learning applications; the Object Aggregated Dataset (OAD) and the Patches Assembled Dataset (PAD). OAD capitalizes zonal statistics of each parcel, thus creating a powerful label-to-features instance for classification algorithms. On the other hand, PAD structure generalizes the classification problem to parcel extraction and semantic segmentation and labeling. The PAD and OAD are examined under three different scenarios to showcase and model the effects of spatial and temporal variability across different years and different countries.

Segmentation of crop fields is essential for enhancing agricultural productivity, monitoring crop health, and promoting sustainable practices. Deep learning models adopted for this task must ensure accurate and reliable predictions to avoid economic losses and environmental impact. The newly proposed Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs) offer promising advancements in the performance of neural networks. This paper analyzes the integration of KAN layers into the U-Net architecture (U-KAN) to segment crop fields using Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-1 satellite images and provides an analysis of the performance and explainability of these networks. Our findings indicate a 2\% improvement in IoU compared to the traditional full-convolutional U-Net model in fewer GFLOPs. Furthermore, gradient-based explanation techniques show that U-KAN predictions are highly plausible and that the network has a very high ability to focus on the boundaries of cultivated areas rather than on the areas themselves. The per-channel relevance analysis also reveals that some channels are irrelevant to this task.

The quadratic complexity of the attention module makes it gradually become the bulk of compute in Transformer-based LLMs during generation. Moreover, the excessive key-value cache that arises when dealing with long inputs also brings severe issues on memory footprint and inference latency. In this work, we propose a plug-and-play approach that is able to incrementally compress the intermediate activation of a specified span of tokens into compact ones, thereby reducing both memory and computational cost when processing subsequent context. Experiments on both in-domain language modeling and zero-shot open-ended document generation demonstrate the advantage of our approach over sparse attention baselines in terms of fluency, n-gram matching, and semantic similarity. At last, we comprehensively profile the benefit of context compression on improving the system throughout. Code is available at https://github.com/DRSY/KV_Compression.

Floods wreak havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damages, and uprooting communities, ecosystems and economies. The NASA Impact Flood Detection competition tasked participants with predicting flooded pixels after training with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images in a supervised setting. We propose a semi-supervised learning pseudo-labeling scheme that derives confidence estimates from U-Net ensembles, progressively improving accuracy. Concretely, we use a cyclical approach involving multiple stages (1) training an ensemble model of multiple U-Net architectures with the provided high confidence hand-labeled data and, generated pseudo labels or low confidence labels on the entire unlabeled test dataset, and then, (2) filter out quality generated labels and, (3) combine the generated labels with the previously available high confidence hand-labeled dataset. This assimilated dataset is used for the next round of training ensemble models and the cyclical process is repeated until the performance improvement plateaus. We post process our results with Conditional Random Fields. Our approach sets a new state-of-the-art on the Sentinel-1 dataset with 0.7654 IoU, an impressive improvement over the 0.60 IoU baseline. Our method, which we release with all the code and models, can also be used as an open science benchmark for the Sentinel-1 dataset.

Significant progress in the development of highly adaptable and reusable Artificial Intelligence (AI) models is expected to have a significant impact on Earth science and remote sensing. Foundation models are pre-trained on large unlabeled datasets through self-supervision, and then fine-tuned for various downstream tasks with small labeled datasets. This paper introduces a first-of-a-kind framework for the efficient pre-training and fine-tuning of foundational models on extensive geospatial data. We have utilized this framework to create Prithvi, a transformer-based geospatial foundational model pre-trained on more than 1TB of multispectral satellite imagery from the Harmonized Landsat-Sentinel 2 (HLS) dataset. Our study demonstrates the efficacy of our framework in successfully fine-tuning Prithvi to a range of Earth observation tasks that have not been tackled by previous work on foundation models involving multi-temporal cloud gap imputation, flood mapping, wildfire scar segmentation, and multi-temporal crop segmentation. Our experiments show that the pre-trained model accelerates the fine-tuning process compared to leveraging randomly initialized weights. In addition, pre-trained Prithvi compares well against the state-of-the-art, e.g., outperforming a conditional GAN model in multi-temporal cloud imputation by up to 5pp (or 5.7%) in the structural similarity index. Finally, due to the limited availability of labeled data in the field of Earth observation, we gradually reduce the quantity of available labeled data for refining the model to evaluate data efficiency and demonstrate that data can be decreased significantly without affecting the model's accuracy. The pre-trained 100 million parameter model and corresponding fine-tuning workflows have been released publicly as open source contributions to the global Earth sciences community through Hugging Face.

In recent years, analysis of remote sensing data has benefited immensely from borrowing techniques from the broader field of computer vision, such as the use of shared models pre-trained on large and diverse datasets. However, satellite imagery has unique features that are not accounted for in traditional computer vision, such as the existence of multiple revisits of the same location. Here, we explore the best way to use revisits in the framework of fine-tuning pre-trained remote sensing models. We focus on an applied research question of relevance to climate change mitigation -- power substation segmentation -- that is representative of applied uses of pre-trained models more generally. Through extensive tests of different multi-temporal input schemes across diverse model architectures, we find that fusing representations from multiple revisits in the model latent space is superior to other methods of using revisits, including as a form of data augmentation. We also find that a SWIN Transformer-based architecture performs better than U-nets and ViT-based models. We verify the generality of our results on a separate building density estimation task.

Massive amounts of unlabelled data are captured by Earth Observation (EO) satellites, with the Sentinel-2 constellation generating 1.6 TB of data daily. This makes Remote Sensing a data-rich domain well suited to Machine Learning (ML) solutions. However, a bottleneck in applying ML models to EO is the lack of annotated data as annotation is a labour-intensive and costly process. As a result, research in this domain has focused on Self-Supervised Learning and Foundation Model approaches. This paper addresses the need to evaluate different Foundation Models on a fair and uniform benchmark by introducing the PhilEO Bench, a novel evaluation framework for EO Foundation Models. The framework comprises of a testbed and a novel 400 GB Sentinel-2 dataset containing labels for three downstream tasks, building density estimation, road segmentation, and land cover classification. We present experiments using our framework evaluating different Foundation Models, including Prithvi and SatMAE, at multiple n-shots and convergence rates.

We introduce a simple yet effective early fusion method for crop yield prediction that handles multiple input modalities with different temporal and spatial resolutions. We use high-resolution crop yield maps as ground truth data to train crop and machine learning model agnostic methods at the sub-field level. We use Sentinel-2 satellite imagery as the primary modality for input data with other complementary modalities, including weather, soil, and DEM data. The proposed method uses input modalities available with global coverage, making the framework globally scalable. We explicitly highlight the importance of input modalities for crop yield prediction and emphasize that the best-performing combination of input modalities depends on region, crop, and chosen model.

This work presents a new unsupervised framework for training deep learning models for super-resolution of Sentinel-2 images by fusion of its 10-m and 20-m bands. The proposed scheme avoids the resolution downgrade process needed to generate training data in the supervised case. On the other hand, a proper loss that accounts for cycle-consistency between the network prediction and the input components to be fused is proposed. Despite its unsupervised nature, in our preliminary experiments the proposed scheme has shown promising results in comparison to the supervised approach. Besides, by construction of the proposed loss, the resulting trained network can be ascribed to the class of multi-resolution analysis methods.

This technical report presents Prithvi-EO-2.0, a new geospatial foundation model that offers significant improvements over its predecessor, Prithvi-EO-1.0. Trained on 4.2M global time series samples from NASA's Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 data archive at 30m resolution, the new 300M and 600M parameter models incorporate temporal and location embeddings for enhanced performance across various geospatial tasks. Through extensive benchmarking with GEO-Bench, the 600M version outperforms the previous Prithvi-EO model by 8\% across a range of tasks. It also outperforms six other geospatial foundation models when benchmarked on remote sensing tasks from different domains and resolutions (i.e. from 0.1m to 15m). The results demonstrate the versatility of the model in both classical earth observation and high-resolution applications. Early involvement of end-users and subject matter experts (SMEs) are among the key factors that contributed to the project's success. In particular, SME involvement allowed for constant feedback on model and dataset design, as well as successful customization for diverse SME-led applications in disaster response, land use and crop mapping, and ecosystem dynamics monitoring. Prithvi-EO-2.0 is available on Hugging Face and IBM terratorch, with additional resources on GitHub. The project exemplifies the Trusted Open Science approach embraced by all involved organizations.

Since the launch of the Sentinel-2 (S2) satellites, many ML models have used the data for diverse applications. The scene classification layer (SCL) inside the S2 product provides rich information for training, such as filtering images with high cloud coverage. However, there is more potential in this. We propose a technique to assess the clean optical coverage of a region, expressed by a SITS and calculated with the S2-based SCL data. With a manual threshold and specific labels in the SCL, the proposed technique assigns a percentage of spatial and temporal coverage across the time series and a high/low assessment. By evaluating the AI4EO challenge for Enhanced Agriculture, we show that the assessment is correlated to the predictive results of ML models. The classification results in a region with low spatial and temporal coverage is worse than in a region with high coverage. Finally, we applied the technique across all continents of the global dataset LandCoverNet.

The Bhutanese government is increasing its utilization of technological approaches such as including Remote Sensing-based knowledge in their decision-making process. This study focuses on crop type and crop extent in Paro, one of the top rice-yielding districts in Bhutan, and employs publicly available NICFI high-resolution satellite imagery from Planet. Two Deep Learning (DL) approaches, point-based (DNN) and patch-based (U-Net), models were used in conjunction with cloud-computing platforms. Three different models per DL approaches (DNN and U-Net) were trained: 1) RGBN channels from Planet; 2) RGBN and elevation data (RGBNE); 3) RGBN and Sentinel-1 (S1) data (RGBNS), and RGBN with E and S1 data (RGBNES). From this comprehensive analysis, the U-Net displayed higher performance metrics across both model training and model validation efforts. Among the U-Net model sets, the RGBN, RGBNE, RGBNS, and RGBNES models had an F1-score of 0.8546, 0.8563, 0.8467, and 0.8500 respectively. An independent model evaluation was performed and found a high level of performance variation across all the metrics. For this independent model evaluation, the U-Net RGBN, RGBNE, RGBNES, and RGBN models displayed the F1-scores of 0.5935, 0.6154, 0.5882, and 0.6582, suggesting U-Net RGBNES as the best model. The study shows that the DL approaches can predict rice. Also, DL methods can be used with the survey-based approaches currently utilized by the Bhutan Department of Agriculture. Further, this study demonstrated the usage of regional land cover products such as SERVIR's RLCMS as a weak label approach to capture different strata addressing the class imbalance problem and improving the sampling design for DL application. Finally, through preliminary model testing and comparisons outlined it was shown that using additional features such as NDVI, EVI, and NDWI did not drastically improve model performance.

An in-depth comprehension of global land cover is essential in Earth observation, forming the foundation for a multitude of applications. Although remote sensing technology has advanced rapidly, leading to a proliferation of satellite imagery, the inherent complexity of these images often makes them difficult for non-expert users to understand. Natural language, as a carrier of human knowledge, can be a bridge between common users and complicated satellite imagery. In this context, we introduce a global-scale, high-quality image-text dataset for remote sensing, providing natural language descriptions for Sentinel-2 data to facilitate the understanding of satellite imagery for common users. Specifically, we utilize Sentinel-2 data for its global coverage as the foundational image source, employing semantic segmentation labels from the European Space Agency's (ESA) WorldCover project to enrich the descriptions of land covers. By conducting in-depth semantic analysis, we formulate detailed prompts to elicit rich descriptions from ChatGPT. To enhance the dataset's quality, we introduce the manual verification process. This step involves manual inspection and correction to refine the dataset, thus significantly improving its accuracy and quality. Finally, we offer the community ChatEarthNet, a large-scale image-text dataset characterized by global coverage, high quality, wide-ranging diversity, and detailed descriptions. ChatEarthNet consists of 163,488 image-text pairs with captions generated by ChatGPT-3.5 and an additional 10,000 image-text pairs with captions generated by ChatGPT-4V(ision). This dataset has significant potential for training vision-language geo-foundation models and evaluating large vision-language models for remote sensing. The dataset will be made publicly available.

Advances in Earth observation (EO) foundation models have unlocked the potential of big satellite data to learn generic representations from space, benefiting a wide range of downstream applications crucial to our planet. However, most existing efforts remain limited to fixed spectral sensors, focus solely on the Earth's surface, and overlook valuable metadata beyond imagery. In this work, we take a step towards next-generation EO foundation models with three key components: 1) Copernicus-Pretrain, a massive-scale pretraining dataset that integrates 18.7M aligned images from all major Copernicus Sentinel missions, spanning from the Earth's surface to its atmosphere; 2) Copernicus-FM, a unified foundation model capable of processing any spectral or non-spectral sensor modality using extended dynamic hypernetworks and flexible metadata encoding; and 3) Copernicus-Bench, a systematic evaluation benchmark with 15 hierarchical downstream tasks ranging from preprocessing to specialized applications for each Sentinel mission. Our dataset, model, and benchmark greatly improve the scalability, versatility, and multimodal adaptability of EO foundation models, while also creating new opportunities to connect EO, weather, and climate research. Codes, datasets and models are available at https://github.com/zhu-xlab/Copernicus-FM.

Modern Earth observation (EO) increasingly leverages deep learning to harness the scale and diversity of satellite imagery across sensors and regions. While recent foundation models have demonstrated promising generalization across EO tasks, many remain limited by the scale, geographical coverage, and spectral diversity of their training data, factors critical for learning globally transferable representations. In this work, we introduce TerraFM, a scalable self-supervised learning model that leverages globally distributed Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 imagery, combined with large spatial tiles and land-cover aware sampling to enrich spatial and semantic coverage. By treating sensing modalities as natural augmentations in our self-supervised approach, we unify radar and optical inputs via modality-specific patch embeddings and adaptive cross-attention fusion. Our training strategy integrates local-global contrastive learning and introduces a dual-centering mechanism that incorporates class-frequency-aware regularization to address long-tailed distributions in land cover.TerraFM achieves strong generalization on both classification and segmentation tasks, outperforming prior models on GEO-Bench and Copernicus-Bench. Our code and pretrained models are publicly available at: https://github.com/mbzuai-oryx/TerraFM .

Accurate crop mapping fundamentally relies on modeling multi-scale spatiotemporal patterns, where spatial scales range from individual field textures to landscape-level context, and temporal scales capture both short-term phenological transitions and full growing-season dynamics. Transformer-based remote sensing foundation models (RSFMs) offer promising potential for crop mapping due to their innate ability for unified spatiotemporal processing. However, current RSFMs remain suboptimal for crop mapping: they either employ fixed spatiotemporal windows that ignore the multi-scale nature of crop systems or completely disregard temporal information by focusing solely on spatial patterns. To bridge these gaps, we present AgriFM, a multi-source remote sensing foundation model specifically designed for agricultural crop mapping. Our approach begins by establishing the necessity of simultaneous hierarchical spatiotemporal feature extraction, leading to the development of a modified Video Swin Transformer architecture where temporal down-sampling is synchronized with spatial scaling operations. This modified backbone enables efficient unified processing of long time-series satellite inputs. AgriFM leverages temporally rich data streams from three satellite sources including MODIS, Landsat-8/9 and Sentinel-2, and is pre-trained on a global representative dataset comprising over 25 million image samples supervised by land cover products. The resulting framework incorporates a versatile decoder architecture that dynamically fuses these learned spatiotemporal representations, supporting diverse downstream tasks. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate AgriFM's superior performance over conventional deep learning approaches and state-of-the-art general-purpose RSFMs across all downstream tasks. Codes will be available at https://github.com/flyakon/AgriFM.

Multi-spectral imagery plays a crucial role in diverse Remote Sensing applications including land-use classification, environmental monitoring and urban planning. These images are widely adopted because their additional spectral bands correlate strongly with physical materials on the ground, such as ice, water, and vegetation. This allows for more accurate identification, and their public availability from missions, such as Sentinel-2 and Landsat, only adds to their value. Currently, the automatic analysis of such data is predominantly managed through machine learning models specifically trained for multi-spectral input, which are costly to train and support. Furthermore, although providing a lot of utility for Remote Sensing, such additional inputs cannot be used with powerful generalist large multimodal models, which are capable of solving many visual problems, but are not able to understand specialized multi-spectral signals. To address this, we propose a training-free approach which introduces new multi-spectral data in a Zero-Shot-only mode, as inputs to generalist multimodal models, trained on RGB-only inputs. Our approach leverages the multimodal models' understanding of the visual space, and proposes to adapt to inputs to that space, and to inject domain-specific information as instructions into the model. We exemplify this idea with the Gemini2.5 model and observe strong Zero-Shot performance gains of the approach on popular Remote Sensing benchmarks for land cover and land use classification and demonstrate the easy adaptability of Gemini2.5 to new inputs. These results highlight the potential for geospatial professionals, working with non-standard specialized inputs, to easily leverage powerful multimodal models, such as Gemini2.5, to accelerate their work, benefiting from their rich reasoning and contextual capabilities, grounded in the specialized sensor data.

Accurate and timely detection of plant stress is essential for yield protection, allowing better-targeted intervention strategies. Recent advances in remote sensing and deep learning have shown great potential for rapid non-invasive detection of plant stress in a fully automated and reproducible manner. However, the existing models always face several challenges: 1) computational inefficiency and the misclassifications between the different stresses with similar symptoms; and 2) the poor interpretability of the host-stress interaction. In this work, we propose a novel fast Fourier Convolutional Neural Network (FFDNN) for accurate and explainable detection of two plant stresses with similar symptoms (i.e. Wheat Yellow Rust And Nitrogen Deficiency). Specifically, unlike the existing CNN models, the main components of the proposed model include: 1) a fast Fourier convolutional block, a newly fast Fourier transformation kernel as the basic perception unit, to substitute the traditional convolutional kernel to capture both local and global responses to plant stress in various time-scale and improve computing efficiency with reduced learning parameters in Fourier domain; 2) Capsule Feature Encoder to encapsulate the extracted features into a series of vector features to represent part-to-whole relationship with the hierarchical structure of the host-stress interactions of the specific stress. In addition, in order to alleviate over-fitting, a photochemical vegetation indices-based filter is placed as pre-processing operator to remove the non-photochemical noises from the input Sentinel-2 time series.

Today, Earth Observation (EO) satellites generate massive volumes of data, with the Copernicus Sentinel-2 constellation alone producing approximately 1.6TB per day. To fully exploit this information, it is essential to pretrain EO Foundation Models (FMs) on large unlabeled datasets, enabling efficient fine-tuning for several different downstream tasks with minimal labeled data. In this work, we present the scaling-up of our recently proposed EO Foundation Model, PhilEO Geo-Aware U-Net, on the unlabeled 23TB dataset MajorTOM, which covers the vast majority of the Earth's surface, as well as on the specialized subset FastTOM 2TB that does not include oceans and ice. We develop and study various PhilEO model variants with different numbers of parameters and architectures. Finally, we fine-tune the models on the PhilEO Bench for road density estimation, building density pixel-wise regression, and land cover semantic segmentation, and we evaluate the performance. Our results demonstrate that for all n-shots for road density regression, the PhilEO 44M MajorTOM 23TB model outperforms PhilEO Globe 0.5TB 44M. We also show that for most n-shots for road density estimation and building density regression, PhilEO 200M FastTOM outperforms all the other models. The effectiveness of both dataset and model scaling is validated using the PhilEO Bench. We also study the impact of architecture scaling, transitioning from U-Net Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) to Vision Transformers (ViT).

With the exacerbation of the biodiversity and climate crises, macroecological pursuits such as global biodiversity mapping become more urgent. Remote sensing offers a wealth of Earth observation data for ecological studies, but the scarcity of labeled datasets remains a major challenge. Recently, self-supervised learning has enabled learning representations from unlabeled data, triggering the development of pretrained geospatial models with generalizable features. However, these models are often trained on datasets biased toward areas of high human activity, leaving entire ecological regions underrepresented. Additionally, while some datasets attempt to address seasonality through multi-date imagery, they typically follow calendar seasons rather than local phenological cycles. To better capture vegetation seasonality at a global scale, we propose a simple phenology-informed sampling strategy and introduce corresponding SSL4Eco, a multi-date Sentinel-2 dataset, on which we train an existing model with a season-contrastive objective. We compare representations learned from SSL4Eco against other datasets on diverse ecological downstream tasks and demonstrate that our straightforward sampling method consistently improves representation quality, highlighting the importance of dataset construction. The model pretrained on SSL4Eco reaches state of the art performance on 7 out of 8 downstream tasks spanning (multi-label) classification and regression. We release our code, data, and model weights to support macroecological and computer vision research at https://github.com/PlekhanovaElena/ssl4eco.

This work explores capabilities of the pre-trained CLIP vision-language model to identify satellite images affected by clouds. Several approaches to using the model to perform cloud presence detection are proposed and evaluated, including a purely zero-shot operation with text prompts and several fine-tuning approaches. Furthermore, the transferability of the methods across different datasets and sensor types (Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8) is tested. The results that CLIP can achieve non-trivial performance on the cloud presence detection task with apparent capability to generalise across sensing modalities and sensing bands. It is also found that a low-cost fine-tuning stage leads to a strong increase in true negative rate. The results demonstrate that the representations learned by the CLIP model can be useful for satellite image processing tasks involving clouds.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have revolutionized cross-modal understanding but continue to struggle with hallucinations - fabricated content contradicting visual inputs. Existing hallucination mitigation methods either incur prohibitive computational costs or introduce distribution mismatches between training data and model outputs. We identify a critical insight: hallucinations predominantly emerge at the early stages of text generation and propagate through subsequent outputs. To address this, we propose **SENTINEL** (**S**entence-level **E**arly i**N**tervention **T**hrough **IN**-domain pr**E**ference **L**earning), a framework that eliminates dependency on human annotations. Specifically, we first bootstrap high-quality in-domain preference pairs by iteratively sampling model outputs, validating object existence through cross-checking with two open-vocabulary detectors, and classifying sentences into hallucinated/non-hallucinated categories. Subsequently, we use context-coherent positive samples and hallucinated negative samples to build context-aware preference data iteratively. Finally, we train models using a context-aware preference loss (C-DPO) that emphasizes discriminative learning at the sentence level where hallucinations initially manifest. Experimental results show that SENTINEL can reduce hallucinations by over 90\% compared to the original model and outperforms the previous state-of-the-art method on both hallucination benchmarks and general capabilities benchmarks, demonstrating its superiority and generalization ability. The models, datasets, and code are available at https://github.com/pspdada/SENTINEL.

Parameter Efficient Fine Tuning (PEFT) techniques have recently experienced significant growth and have been extensively employed to adapt large vision and language models to various domains, enabling satisfactory model performance with minimal computational needs. Despite these advances, more research has yet to delve into potential PEFT applications in real-life scenarios, particularly in the critical domains of remote sensing and crop monitoring. The diversity of climates across different regions and the need for comprehensive large-scale datasets have posed significant obstacles to accurately identify crop types across varying geographic locations and changing growing seasons. This study seeks to bridge this gap by comprehensively exploring the feasibility of cross-area and cross-year out-of-distribution generalization using the State-of-the-Art (SOTA) wheat crop monitoring model. The aim of this work is to explore PEFT approaches for crop monitoring. Specifically, we focus on adapting the SOTA TSViT model to address winter wheat field segmentation, a critical task for crop monitoring and food security. This adaptation process involves integrating different PEFT techniques, including BigFit, LoRA, Adaptformer, and prompt tuning. Using PEFT techniques, we achieved notable results comparable to those achieved using full fine-tuning methods while training only a mere 0.7% parameters of the whole TSViT architecture. The in-house labeled data-set, referred to as the Beqaa-Lebanon dataset, comprises high-quality annotated polygons for wheat and non-wheat classes with a total surface of 170 kmsq, over five consecutive years. Using Sentinel-2 images, our model achieved a 84% F1-score. We intend to publicly release the Lebanese winter wheat data set, code repository, and model weights.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has enabled the development of vision foundation models for Earth Observation (EO), demonstrating strong transferability across diverse remote sensing tasks. While prior work has focused on network architectures and training strategies, the role of dataset curation, especially in balancing and diversifying pre-training datasets, remains underexplored. In EO, this challenge is amplified by the redundancy and heavy-tailed distributions common in satellite imagery, which can lead to biased representations and inefficient training. In this work, we propose a dynamic dataset pruning strategy designed to improve SSL pre-training by maximizing dataset diversity and balance. Our method iteratively refines the training set without requiring a pre-existing feature extractor, making it well-suited for domains where curated datasets are limited or unavailable. We demonstrate our approach on the Sentinel-1 Wave Mode (WV) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) archive, a challenging dataset dominated by ocean observations. We train models from scratch on the entire Sentinel-1 WV archive spanning 10 years. Across three downstream tasks, our results show that dynamic pruning improves both computational efficiency and representation quality, leading to stronger transferability. We also release the weights of Nereus-SAR-1, the first model in the Nereus family, a series of foundation models for ocean observation and analysis using SAR imagery, at github.com/galeio-research/nereus-sar-models/.

Landslides pose severe threats to infrastructure, economies, and human lives, necessitating accurate detection and predictive mapping across diverse geographic regions. With advancements in deep learning and remote sensing, automated landslide detection has become increasingly effective. This study presents a comprehensive approach integrating multi-source satellite imagery and deep learning models to enhance landslide identification and prediction. We leverage Sentinel-2 multispectral data and ALOS PALSAR-derived slope and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) layers to capture critical environmental features influencing landslide occurrences. Various geospatial analysis techniques are employed to assess the impact of terra in characteristics, vegetation cover, and rainfall on detection accuracy. Additionally, we evaluate the performance of multiple stateof-the-art deep learning segmentation models, including U-Net, DeepLabV3+, and Res-Net, to determine their effectiveness in landslide detection. The proposed framework contributes to the development of reliable early warning systems, improved disaster risk management, and sustainable land-use planning. Our findings provide valuable insights into the potential of deep learning and multi-source remote sensing in creating robust, scalable, and transferable landslide prediction models.

Floods cause extensive global damage annually, making effective monitoring essential. While satellite observations have proven invaluable for flood detection and tracking, comprehensive global flood datasets spanning extended time periods remain scarce. In this study, we introduce a novel deep learning flood detection model that leverages the cloud-penetrating capabilities of Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite imagery, enabling consistent flood extent mapping in any weather condition. By applying this model to nearly 10 years of SAR data, we create a unique, longitudinal global flood extent dataset with predictions unaffected by cloud coverage, offering comprehensive and consistent insights into historically flood-prone areas over the past decade. We use our model predictions to identify historically flood-prone areas in Ethiopia and demonstrate real-time disaster response capabilities during the May 2024 floods in Kenya. Additionally, our longitudinal analysis reveals potential increasing trends in global flood extent over time, although further validation is required to explore links to climate change. To maximize impact, we provide public access to both our model predictions and a code repository, empowering researchers and practitioners worldwide to advance flood monitoring and enhance disaster response strategies.

Machine translation quality has steadily improved over the years, achieving near-perfect translations in recent benchmarks. These high-quality outputs make it difficult to distinguish between state-of-the-art models and to identify areas for future improvement. In this context, automatically identifying texts where machine translation systems struggle holds promise for developing more discriminative evaluations and guiding future research. In this work, we address this gap by formalizing the task of translation difficulty estimation, defining a text's difficulty based on the expected quality of its translations. We introduce a new metric to evaluate difficulty estimators and use it to assess both baselines and novel approaches. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of difficulty estimators by using them to construct more challenging benchmarks for machine translation. Our results show that dedicated models outperform both heuristic-based methods and LLM-as-a-judge approaches, with Sentinel-src achieving the best performance. Thus, we release two improved models for difficulty estimation, Sentinel-src-24 and Sentinel-src-25, which can be used to scan large collections of texts and select those most likely to challenge contemporary machine translation systems.

Open-access multispectral imagery from missions like Landsat 8-9 and Sentinel-2 has fueled the development of geospatial foundation models (GFMs) for humanitarian and environmental applications. Yet, their deployment remains limited by (i) the absence of automated geospatial data pipelines and (ii) the large size of fine-tuned models. Existing GFMs lack workflows for processing raw satellite imagery, and downstream adaptations often retain the full complexity of the original encoder. We present InstaGeo, an open-source, end-to-end framework that addresses these challenges by integrating: (1) automated data curation to transform raw imagery into model-ready datasets; (2) task-specific model distillation to derive compact, compute-efficient models; and (3) seamless deployment as interactive web-map applications. Using InstaGeo, we reproduced datasets from three published studies and trained models with marginal mIoU differences of -0.73 pp for flood mapping, -0.20 pp for crop segmentation, and +1.79 pp for desert locust prediction. The distilled models are up to 8x smaller than standard fine-tuned counterparts, reducing FLOPs and CO2 emissions with minimal accuracy loss. Leveraging InstaGeo's streamlined data pipeline, we also curated a larger crop segmentation dataset, achieving a state-of-the-art mIoU of 60.65%, a 12 pp improvement over prior baselines. Moreover, InstaGeo enables users to progress from raw data to model deployment within a single working day. By unifying data preparation, model compression, and deployment, InstaGeo transforms research-grade GFMs into practical, low-carbon tools for real-time, large-scale Earth observation. This approach shifts geospatial AI toward data quality and application-driven innovation. Source code, datasets, and model checkpoints are available at: https://github.com/instadeepai/InstaGeo-E2E-Geospatial-ML.git

Remotely sensed geospatial data are critical for applications including precision agriculture, urban planning, disaster monitoring and response, and climate change research, among others. Deep learning methods are particularly promising for modeling many remote sensing tasks given the success of deep neural networks in similar computer vision tasks and the sheer volume of remotely sensed imagery available. However, the variance in data collection methods and handling of geospatial metadata make the application of deep learning methodology to remotely sensed data nontrivial. For example, satellite imagery often includes additional spectral bands beyond red, green, and blue and must be joined to other geospatial data sources that can have differing coordinate systems, bounds, and resolutions. To help realize the potential of deep learning for remote sensing applications, we introduce TorchGeo, a Python library for integrating geospatial data into the PyTorch deep learning ecosystem. TorchGeo provides data loaders for a variety of benchmark datasets, composable datasets for generic geospatial data sources, samplers for geospatial data, and transforms that work with multispectral imagery. TorchGeo is also the first library to provide pre-trained models for multispectral satellite imagery (e.g., models that use all bands from the Sentinel-2 satellites), allowing for advances in transfer learning on downstream remote sensing tasks with limited labeled data. We use TorchGeo to create reproducible benchmark results on existing datasets and benchmark our proposed method for preprocessing geospatial imagery on the fly. TorchGeo is open source and available on GitHub: https://github.com/microsoft/torchgeo.

Forecasting surface water dynamics is crucial for water resource management and climate change adaptation. However, the field lacks comprehensive datasets and standardized benchmarks. In this paper, we introduce HydroChronos, a large-scale, multi-modal spatiotemporal dataset for surface water dynamics forecasting designed to address this gap. We couple the dataset with three forecasting tasks. The dataset includes over three decades of aligned Landsat 5 and Sentinel-2 imagery, climate data, and Digital Elevation Models for diverse lakes and rivers across Europe, North America, and South America. We also propose AquaClimaTempo UNet, a novel spatiotemporal architecture with a dedicated climate data branch, as a strong benchmark baseline. Our model significantly outperforms a Persistence baseline for forecasting future water dynamics by +14% and +11% F1 across change detection and direction of change classification tasks, and by +0.1 MAE on the magnitude of change regression. Finally, we conduct an Explainable AI analysis to identify the key climate variables and input channels that influence surface water change, providing insights to inform and guide future modeling efforts.

Remote sensing has emerged as a critical tool for large-scale Earth monitoring and land management. In this paper, we introduce AgriPotential, a novel benchmark dataset composed of Sentinel-2 satellite imagery spanning multiple months. The dataset provides pixel-level annotations of agricultural potentials for three major crop types - viticulture, market gardening, and field crops - across five ordinal classes. AgriPotential supports a broad range of machine learning tasks, including ordinal regression, multi-label classification, and spatio-temporal modeling. The data covers diverse areas in Southern France, offering rich spectral information. AgriPotential is the first public dataset designed specifically for agricultural potential prediction, aiming to improve data-driven approaches to sustainable land use planning. The dataset and the code are freely accessible at: https://zenodo.org/records/15556484

The difficulty of monitoring biodiversity at fine scales and over large areas limits ecological knowledge and conservation efforts. To fill this gap, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) predict species across space from spatially explicit features. Yet, they face the challenge of integrating the rich but heterogeneous data made available over the past decade, notably millions of opportunistic species observations and standardized surveys, as well as multi-modal remote sensing data. In light of that, we have designed and developed a new European-scale dataset for SDMs at high spatial resolution (10-50 m), including more than 10k species (i.e., most of the European flora). The dataset comprises 5M heterogeneous Presence-Only records and 90k exhaustive Presence-Absence survey records, all accompanied by diverse environmental rasters (e.g., elevation, human footprint, and soil) that are traditionally used in SDMs. In addition, it provides Sentinel-2 RGB and NIR satellite images with 10 m resolution, a 20-year time-series of climatic variables, and satellite time-series from the Landsat program. In addition to the data, we provide an openly accessible SDM benchmark (hosted on Kaggle), which has already attracted an active community and a set of strong baselines for single predictor/modality and multimodal approaches. All resources, e.g., the dataset, pre-trained models, and baseline methods (in the form of notebooks), are available on Kaggle, allowing one to start with our dataset literally with two mouse clicks.

From crop mapping to flood detection, machine learning in remote sensing has a wide range of societally beneficial applications. The commonalities between remote sensing data in these applications present an opportunity for pretrained machine learning models tailored to remote sensing to reduce the labeled data and effort required to solve individual tasks. However, such models must be: (i) flexible enough to ingest input data of varying sensor modalities and shapes (i.e., of varying spatial and temporal dimensions), and (ii) able to model Earth surface phenomena of varying scales and types. To solve this gap, we present Galileo, a family of pretrained remote sensing models designed to flexibly process multimodal remote sensing data. We also introduce a novel and highly effective self-supervised learning approach to learn both large- and small-scale features, a challenge not addressed by previous models. Our Galileo models obtain state-of-the-art results across diverse remote sensing tasks.

The emergence of large models, also known as foundation models, has brought significant advancements to AI research. One such model is Segment Anything (SAM), which is designed for image segmentation tasks. However, as with other foundation models, our experimental findings suggest that SAM may fail or perform poorly in certain segmentation tasks, such as shadow detection and camouflaged object detection (concealed object detection). This study first paves the way for applying the large pre-trained image segmentation model SAM to these downstream tasks, even in situations where SAM performs poorly. Rather than fine-tuning the SAM network, we propose SAM-Adapter, which incorporates domain-specific information or visual prompts into the segmentation network by using simple yet effective adapters. By integrating task-specific knowledge with general knowledge learnt by the large model, SAM-Adapter can significantly elevate the performance of SAM in challenging tasks as shown in extensive experiments. We can even outperform task-specific network models and achieve state-of-the-art performance in the task we tested: camouflaged object detection, shadow detection. We also tested polyp segmentation (medical image segmentation) and achieves better results. We believe our work opens up opportunities for utilizing SAM in downstream tasks, with potential applications in various fields, including medical image processing, agriculture, remote sensing, and more.

The Sentinel-2 satellite mission delivers multi-spectral imagery with 13 spectral bands, acquired at three different spatial resolutions. The aim of this research is to super-resolve the lower-resolution (20 m and 60 m Ground Sampling Distance - GSD) bands to 10 m GSD, so as to obtain a complete data cube at the maximal sensor resolution. We employ a state-of-the-art convolutional neural network (CNN) to perform end-to-end upsampling, which is trained with data at lower resolution, i.e., from 40->20 m, respectively 360->60 m GSD. In this way, one has access to a virtually infinite amount of training data, by downsampling real Sentinel-2 images. We use data sampled globally over a wide range of geographical locations, to obtain a network that generalises across different climate zones and land-cover types, and can super-resolve arbitrary Sentinel-2 images without the need of retraining. In quantitative evaluations (at lower scale, where ground truth is available), our network, which we call DSen2, outperforms the best competing approach by almost 50% in RMSE, while better preserving the spectral characteristics. It also delivers visually convincing results at the full 10 m GSD. The code is available at https://github.com/lanha/DSen2

This paper presents refined BigEarthNet (reBEN) that is a large-scale, multi-modal remote sensing dataset constructed to support deep learning (DL) studies for remote sensing image analysis. The reBEN dataset consists of 549,488 pairs of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 image patches. To construct reBEN, we initially consider the Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 tiles used to construct the BigEarthNet dataset and then divide them into patches of size 1200 m x 1200 m. We apply atmospheric correction to the Sentinel-2 patches using the latest version of the sen2cor tool, resulting in higher-quality patches compared to those present in BigEarthNet. Each patch is then associated with a pixel-level reference map and scene-level multi-labels. This makes reBEN suitable for pixel- and scene-based learning tasks. The labels are derived from the most recent CORINE Land Cover (CLC) map of 2018 by utilizing the 19-class nomenclature as in BigEarthNet. The use of the most recent CLC map results in overcoming the label noise present in BigEarthNet. Furthermore, we introduce a new geographical-based split assignment algorithm that significantly reduces the spatial correlation among the train, validation, and test sets with respect to those present in BigEarthNet. This increases the reliability of the evaluation of DL models. To minimize the DL model training time, we introduce software tools that convert the reBEN dataset into a DL-optimized data format. In our experiments, we show the potential of reBEN for multi-modal multi-label image classification problems by considering several state-of-the-art DL models. The pre-trained model weights, associated code, and complete dataset are available at https://bigearth.net.

Dengue fever presents a substantial challenge in developing countries where sanitation infrastructure is inadequate. The absence of comprehensive healthcare systems exacerbates the severity of dengue infections, potentially leading to life-threatening circumstances. Rapid response to dengue outbreaks is also challenging due to limited information exchange and integration. While timely dengue outbreak forecasts have the potential to prevent such outbreaks, the majority of dengue prediction studies have predominantly relied on data that impose significant burdens on individual countries for collection. In this study, our aim is to improve health equity in resource-constrained countries by exploring the effectiveness of high-resolution satellite imagery as a nontraditional and readily accessible data source. By leveraging the wealth of publicly available and easily obtainable satellite imagery, we present a scalable satellite extraction framework based on Sentinel Hub, a cloud-based computing platform. Furthermore, we introduce DengueNet, an innovative architecture that combines Vision Transformer, Radiomics, and Long Short-term Memory to extract and integrate spatiotemporal features from satellite images. This enables dengue predictions on an epi-week basis. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method, we conducted experiments on five municipalities in Colombia. We utilized a dataset comprising 780 high-resolution Sentinel-2 satellite images for training and evaluation. The performance of DengueNet was assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) metric. Across the five municipalities, DengueNet achieved an average MAE of 43.92. Our findings strongly support the efficacy of satellite imagery as a valuable resource for dengue prediction, particularly in informing public health policies within countries where manually collected data is scarce and dengue virus prevalence is severe.

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

In recent years, the development of robust multi-source models has emerged in the Earth Observation (EO) field. These are models that leverage data from diverse sources to improve predictive accuracy when there is missing data. Despite these advancements, the factors influencing the varying effectiveness of such models remain poorly understood. In this study, we evaluate the predictive performance of six state-of-the-art multi-source models in predicting scenarios where either a single data source is missing or only a single source is available. Our analysis reveals that the efficacy of these models is intricately tied to the nature of the task, the complementarity among data sources, and the model design. Surprisingly, we observe instances where the removal of certain data sources leads to improved predictive performance, challenging the assumption that incorporating all available data is always beneficial. These findings prompt critical reflections on model complexity and the necessity of all collected data sources, potentially shaping the way for more streamlined approaches in EO applications.

Foundation models have the potential to transform the landscape of remote sensing (RS) data analysis by enabling large computer vision models to be pre-trained on vast amounts of remote sensing data. These models can then be fine-tuned with small amounts of labeled training and applied to a variety of applications. Most existing foundation models are designed for high spatial resolution, cloud-free satellite imagery or photos, limiting their applicability in scenarios that require frequent temporal monitoring or broad spectral profiles. As a result, foundation models trained solely on cloud-free images have limited utility for applications that involve atmospheric variables or require atmospheric corrections. We introduce SatVision-TOA, a novel foundation model pre-trained on 14-band MODIS L1B Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) radiance imagery, addressing the need for models pre-trained to handle moderate- and coarse-resolution all-sky remote sensing data. The SatVision-TOA model is pre-trained using a Masked-Image-Modeling (MIM) framework and the SwinV2 architecture, and learns detailed contextual representations through self-supervised learning without the need for labels. It is a 3 billion parameter model that is trained on 100 million images. To our knowledge this is the largest foundation model trained solely on satellite RS imagery. Results show that SatVision-TOA achieves superior performance over baseline methods on downstream tasks such as 3D cloud retrieval. Notably, the model achieves a mean intersection over union (mIOU) of 0.46, a substantial improvement over the baseline mIOU of 0.22. Additionally, the rate of false negative results in the fine-tuning task were reduced by over 50% compared to the baseline. Our work advances pre-trained vision modeling for multispectral RS by learning from a variety of atmospheric and aerosol conditions to improve cloud and land surface monitoring.

Self-supervised pre-training bears potential to generate expressive representations without human annotation. Most pre-training in Earth observation (EO) are based on ImageNet or medium-size, labeled remote sensing (RS) datasets. We share an unlabeled RS dataset SSL4EO-S12 (Self-Supervised Learning for Earth Observation - Sentinel-1/2) to assemble a large-scale, global, multimodal, and multi-seasonal corpus of satellite imagery from the ESA Sentinel-1 \& -2 satellite missions. For EO applications we demonstrate SSL4EO-S12 to succeed in self-supervised pre-training for a set of methods: MoCo-v2, DINO, MAE, and data2vec. Resulting models yield downstream performance close to, or surpassing accuracy measures of supervised learning. In addition, pre-training on SSL4EO-S12 excels compared to existing datasets. We make openly available the dataset, related source code, and pre-trained models at https://github.com/zhu-xlab/SSL4EO-S12.

Global climate models typically operate at a grid resolution of hundreds of kilometers and fail to resolve atmospheric mesoscale processes, e.g., clouds, precipitation, and gravity waves (GWs). Model representation of these processes and their sources is essential to the global circulation and planetary energy budget, but subgrid scale contributions from these processes are often only approximately represented in models using parameterizations. These parameterizations are subject to approximations and idealizations, which limit their capability and accuracy. The most drastic of these approximations is the "single-column approximation" which completely neglects the horizontal evolution of these processes, resulting in key biases in current climate models. With a focus on atmospheric GWs, we present the first-ever global simulation of atmospheric GW fluxes using machine learning (ML) models trained on the WINDSET dataset to emulate global GW emulation in the atmosphere, as an alternative to traditional single-column parameterizations. Using an Attention U-Net-based architecture trained on globally resolved GW momentum fluxes, we illustrate the importance and effectiveness of global nonlocality, when simulating GWs using data-driven schemes.

Guardian models are used to supervise and moderate the outputs of user-facing chatbots, enforcing guardrails and detecting bad behaviors. Standard guardian models like LlamaGuard detect predefined, static categories of harms. We propose dynamic guardian models that evaluate text based on user-defined policies, making them useful for different application domains that are not addressed by standard guardian models. Our dynamic guardian models can be used for fast detection of policy violations or with chain-of-thought reasoning that articulates and justifies the model outputs. Our dynamic guardian models match static models in detection accuracy for static harm categories while identifying violations of free-form policies with accuracy comparable to frontier reasoning models in a fraction of the time.

In this paper, we address the challenge of land use and land cover classification using Sentinel-2 satellite images. The Sentinel-2 satellite images are openly and freely accessible provided in the Earth observation program Copernicus. We present a novel dataset based on Sentinel-2 satellite images covering 13 spectral bands and consisting out of 10 classes with in total 27,000 labeled and geo-referenced images. We provide benchmarks for this novel dataset with its spectral bands using state-of-the-art deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNNs). With the proposed novel dataset, we achieved an overall classification accuracy of 98.57%. The resulting classification system opens a gate towards a number of Earth observation applications. We demonstrate how this classification system can be used for detecting land use and land cover changes and how it can assist in improving geographical maps. The geo-referenced dataset EuroSAT is made publicly available at https://github.com/phelber/eurosat.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

Satellite-based remote sensing has revolutionised the way we address global challenges. Huge quantities of Earth Observation (EO) data are generated by satellite sensors daily, but processing these large datasets for use in ML pipelines is technically and computationally challenging. While some preprocessed Earth observation datasets exist, their content is often limited to optical or near-optical wavelength data, which is ineffective at night or in adverse weather conditions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), an active sensing technique based on microwave length radiation, offers a viable alternative. However, the application of machine learning to SAR has been limited due to a lack of ML-ready data and pipelines, particularly for the full diversity of SAR data, including polarimetry, coherence and interferometry. In this work, we introduce M3LEO, a multi-modal, multi-label Earth observation dataset that includes polarimetric, interferometric, and coherence SAR data derived from Sentinel-1, alongside multispectral Sentinel-2 imagery and auxiliary data describing terrain properties such as land use. M3LEO spans approximately 17M 4x4 km data chips from six diverse geographic regions. The dataset is complemented by a flexible PyTorch Lightning framework configured using Hydra to accommodate its use across diverse ML applications in Earth observation. We provide tools to process any dataset available on popular platforms such as Google Earth Engine for seamless integration with our framework. We show that the distribution shift in self-supervised embeddings is substantial across geographic regions, even when controlling for terrain properties. Data: huggingface.co/M3LEO, Code: github.com/spaceml-org/M3LEO.

From optical sensors to microwave radars, leveraging the complementary strengths of remote sensing (RS) sensors is crucial for achieving dense spatio-temporal monitoring of our planet. In contrast, recent deep learning models, whether task-specific or foundational, are often specific to single sensors or to fixed combinations: adapting such models to different sensory inputs requires both architectural changes and re-training, limiting scalability and generalization across multiple RS sensors. On the contrary, a single model able to modulate its feature representations to accept diverse sensors as input would pave the way to agile and flexible multi-sensor RS data processing. To address this, we introduce SMARTIES, a generic and versatile foundation model lifting sensor-specific/dependent efforts and enabling scalability and generalization to diverse RS sensors: SMARTIES projects data from heterogeneous sensors into a shared spectrum-aware space, enabling the use of arbitrary combinations of bands both for training and inference. To obtain sensor-agnostic representations, we train a single, unified transformer model reconstructing masked multi-sensor data with cross-sensor token mixup. On both single- and multi-modal tasks across diverse sensors, SMARTIES outperforms previous models that rely on sensor-specific pretraining. Our code and pretrained models are available at https://gsumbul.github.io/SMARTIES.

The development of foundation models has revolutionized our ability to interpret the Earth's surface using satellite observational data. Traditional models have been siloed, tailored to specific sensors or data types like optical, radar, and hyperspectral, each with its own unique characteristics. This specialization hinders the potential for a holistic analysis that could benefit from the combined strengths of these diverse data sources. Our novel approach introduces the Dynamic One-For-All (DOFA) model, leveraging the concept of neural plasticity in brain science to integrate various data modalities into a single framework adaptively. This dynamic hypernetwork, adjusting to different wavelengths, enables a single versatile Transformer jointly trained on data from five sensors to excel across 12 distinct Earth observation tasks, including sensors never seen during pretraining. DOFA's innovative design offers a promising leap towards more accurate, efficient, and unified Earth observation analysis, showcasing remarkable adaptability and performance in harnessing the potential of multimodal Earth observation data.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) is concerned with the development of learned emulators of physical systems governed by partial differential equations (PDE). In application domains such as weather forecasting, molecular dynamics, and inverse design, ML-based surrogate models are increasingly used to augment or replace inefficient and often non-differentiable numerical simulation algorithms. While a number of ML-based methods for approximating the solutions of PDEs have been proposed in recent years, they typically do not adapt to the parameters of the PDEs, making it difficult to generalize to PDE parameters not seen during training. We propose a Channel Attention mechanism guided by PDE Parameter Embeddings (CAPE) component for neural surrogate models and a simple yet effective curriculum learning strategy. The CAPE module can be combined with neural PDE solvers allowing them to adapt to unseen PDE parameters. The curriculum learning strategy provides a seamless transition between teacher-forcing and fully auto-regressive training. We compare CAPE in conjunction with the curriculum learning strategy using a popular PDE benchmark and obtain consistent and significant improvements over the baseline models. The experiments also show several advantages of CAPE, such as its increased ability to generalize to unseen PDE parameters without large increases inference time and parameter count.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to the popular transformer-based models and have been increasingly gaining attention. Compared to transformers, SSMs excel at tasks with sequential data or longer contexts, demonstrating comparable performances with significant efficiency gains. In this survey, we provide a coherent and systematic overview for SSMs, including their theoretical motivations, mathematical formulations, comparison with existing model classes, and various applications. We divide the SSM series into three main sections, providing a detailed introduction to the original SSM, the structured SSM represented by S4, and the selective SSM typified by Mamba. We put an emphasis on technicality, and highlight the various key techniques introduced to address the effectiveness and efficiency of SSMs. We hope this manuscript serves as an introduction for researchers to explore the theoretical foundations of SSMs.

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

The ever-increasing sensor service, though opening a precious path and providing a deluge of earth system data for deep-learning-oriented earth science, sadly introduce a daunting obstacle to their industrial level deployment. Concretely, earth science systems rely heavily on the extensive deployment of sensors, however, the data collection from sensors is constrained by complex geographical and social factors, making it challenging to achieve comprehensive coverage and uniform deployment. To alleviate the obstacle, traditional approaches to sensor deployment utilize specific algorithms to design and deploy sensors. These methods dynamically adjust the activation times of sensors to optimize the detection process across each sub-region. Regrettably, formulating an activation strategy generally based on historical observations and geographic characteristics, which make the methods and resultant models were neither simple nor practical. Worse still, the complex technical design may ultimately lead to a model with weak generalizability. In this paper, we introduce for the first time the concept of spatio-temporal data dynamic sparse training and are committed to adaptively, dynamically filtering important sensor distributions. To our knowledge, this is the first proposal (termed DynST) of an industry-level deployment optimization concept at the data level. However, due to the existence of the temporal dimension, pruning of spatio-temporal data may lead to conflicts at different timestamps. To achieve this goal, we employ dynamic merge technology, along with ingenious dimensional mapping to mitigate potential impacts caused by the temporal aspect. During the training process, DynST utilize iterative pruning and sparse training, repeatedly identifying and dynamically removing sensor perception areas that contribute the least to future predictions.

Random network models play a prominent role in modeling, analyzing and understanding complex phenomena on real-life networks. However, a key property of networks is often neglected: many real-world networks exhibit spatial structure, the tendency of a node to select neighbors with a probability depending on physical distance. Here, we introduce a class of random spatial networks (RSNs) which generalizes many existing random network models but adds spatial structure. In these networks, nodes are placed randomly in space and joined in edges with a probability depending on their distance and their individual expected degrees, in a manner that crucially remains analytically tractable. We use this network class to propose a new generalization of small-world networks, where the average shortest path lengths in the graph are small, as in classical Watts-Strogatz small-world networks, but with close spatial proximity of nodes that are neighbors in the network playing the role of large clustering. Small-world effects are demonstrated on these spatial small-world networks without clustering. We are able to derive partial integro-differential equations governing susceptible-infectious-recovered disease spreading through an RSN, and we demonstrate the existence of traveling wave solutions. If the distance kernel governing edge placement decays slower than exponential, the population-scale dynamics are dominated by long-range hops followed by local spread of traveling waves. This provides a theoretical modeling framework for recent observations of how epidemics like Ebola evolve in modern connected societies, with long-range connections seeding new focal points from which the epidemic locally spreads in a wavelike manner.

Agent Based Models (ABMs) have emerged as a powerful tool for investigating complex social interactions, particularly in the context of public health and infectious disease investigation. In an effort to enhance the conventional ABM, enabling automated model calibration and reducing the computational resources needed for scaling up the model, we have developed a tensorized and differentiable agent-based model by coupling Graph Neural Network (GNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. The model was employed to investigate the 2019 measles outbreak occurred in New Zealand, demonstrating a promising ability to accurately simulate the outbreak dynamics, particularly during the peak period of repeated cases. This paper shows that by leveraging the latest Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology and the capabilities of traditional ABMs, we gain deeper insights into the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks. This, in turn, helps us make more informed decision when developing effective strategies that strike a balance between managing outbreaks and minimizing disruptions to everyday life.

Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. Yet modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by non-cluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). We empirically constrain the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy survey data with the \rdmpr, algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). For matched clusters, we augment the \rdmpr,catalog by the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we use the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multi-wavelength data, we explore various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Our analysis reveals the limitations of a simple lognormal scatter model in describing the data. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge, requiring a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

This paper presents the Large Wireless Model (LWM) -- the world's first foundation model for wireless channels. Designed as a task-agnostic model, LWM generates universal, rich, contextualized channel embeddings (features) that potentially enhance performance across a wide range of downstream tasks in wireless communication and sensing systems. Towards this objective, LWM, which has a transformer-based architecture, was pre-trained in a self-supervised manner on large-scale wireless channel datasets. Our results show consistent improvements in classification and regression tasks when using the LWM embeddings compared to raw channel representations, especially in scenarios with high-complexity machine learning tasks and limited training datasets. This LWM's ability to learn from large-scale wireless data opens a promising direction for intelligent systems that can efficiently adapt to diverse tasks with limited data, paving the way for addressing key challenges in wireless communication and sensing systems.

Deep learning foundation models are revolutionizing many facets of science by leveraging vast amounts of data to learn general-purpose representations that can be adapted to tackle diverse downstream tasks. Foundation models hold the promise to also transform our ability to model our planet and its subsystems by exploiting the vast expanse of Earth system data. Here we introduce Aurora, a large-scale foundation model of the atmosphere trained on over a million hours of diverse weather and climate data. Aurora leverages the strengths of the foundation modelling approach to produce operational forecasts for a wide variety of atmospheric prediction problems, including those with limited training data, heterogeneous variables, and extreme events. In under a minute, Aurora produces 5-day global air pollution predictions and 10-day high-resolution weather forecasts that outperform state-of-the-art classical simulation tools and the best specialized deep learning models. Taken together, these results indicate that foundation models can transform environmental forecasting.

Mutation testing is an effective approach to evaluate and strengthen software test suites, but its adoption is currently limited by the mutants' execution computational cost. Several strategies have been proposed to reduce this cost (a.k.a. mutation cost reduction strategies), however none of them has proven to be effective for all scenarios since they often need an ad-hoc manual selection and configuration depending on the software under test (SUT). In this paper, we propose a novel multi-objective evolutionary hyper-heuristic approach, dubbed Sentinel, to automate the generation of optimal cost reduction strategies for every new SUT. We evaluate Sentinel by carrying out a thorough empirical study involving 40 releases of 10 open-source real-world software systems and both baseline and state-of-the-art strategies as a benchmark. We execute a total of 4,800 experiments, and evaluate their results with both quality indicators and statistical significance tests, following the most recent best practice in the literature. The results show that strategies generated by Sentinel outperform the baseline strategies in 95% of the cases always with large effect sizes. They also obtain statistically significantly better results than state-of-the-art strategies in 88% of the cases, with large effect sizes for 95% of them. Also, our study reveals that the mutation strategies generated by Sentinel for a given software version can be used without any loss in quality for subsequently developed versions in 95% of the cases. These results show that Sentinel is able to automatically generate mutation strategies that reduce mutation testing cost without affecting its testing effectiveness (i.e. mutation score), thus taking off from the tester's shoulders the burden of manually selecting and configuring strategies for each SUT.

In recent years, a plethora of open-source foundation models have emerged, achieving remarkable progress in some widely attended fields, with performance being quite close to that of closed-source models. However, in high-value but more challenging scientific professional fields, either the fields still rely on expert models, or the progress of general foundation models lags significantly compared to those in popular areas, far from sufficient for transforming scientific research and leaving substantial gap between open-source models and closed-source models in these scientific domains. To mitigate this gap and explore a step further toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), we introduce Intern-S1, a specialized generalist equipped with general understanding and reasoning capabilities with expertise to analyze multiple science modal data. Intern-S1 is a multimodal Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) model with 28 billion activated parameters and 241 billion total parameters, continually pre-trained on 5T tokens, including over 2.5T tokens from scientific domains. In the post-training stage, Intern-S1 undergoes offline and then online reinforcement learning (RL) in InternBootCamp, where we propose Mixture-of-Rewards (MoR) to synergize the RL training on more than 1000 tasks simultaneously. Through integrated innovations in algorithms, data, and training systems, Intern-S1 achieved top-tier performance in online RL training.On comprehensive evaluation benchmarks, Intern-S1 demonstrates competitive performance on general reasoning tasks among open-source models and significantly outperforms open-source models in scientific domains, surpassing closed-source state-of-the-art models in professional tasks, such as molecular synthesis planning, reaction condition prediction, predicting thermodynamic stabilities for crystals. Our models are available at https://huggingface.co/internlm/Intern-S1.

We present the first high-precision model for the group-scale strong lensing system CASSOWARY 19 (CSWA19), utilising images from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Sixteen member galaxies identified via the red-sequence method, and the main halo, all modelled as the dual Pseudo Isothermal Elliptical profile (dPIE), are incorporated into a parametric lens model alongside an external shear field. To model the system, we adopt the PyAutoLens software package, employing a progressive search chain strategy for realizing the transition of source model from multiple S\'ersic profiles to a brightness-adaptive pixelization, which uses 1000 pixels in the source plane to reconstruct the background source corresponding to 177,144 image pixels in the image plane. Our results indicate that the total mass within the Einstein radius is M_{theta_E} approx 1.41times10^{13}M_{odot} and the average slope of the total mass density rho (r)propto r^{-gamma} is gamma=1.33 within the effective radius. This slope is shallower than those measured in galaxies and groups but is closer to those of galaxy clusters. In addition, our approach successfully resolves the two merging galaxies in the background source and yields a total magnification of mu=103.18^{+0.23}_{-0.19}, which is significantly higher than the outcomes from previous studies of CSWA19. In summary, our research demonstrates the effectiveness of the brightness-adaptive pixelization source reconstruction technique for modelling group-scale strong lensing systems. It can serve as a technical reference for future investigations into pixel-level modelling of the group- and cluster-scale strong lensing systems.

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state-space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian Non-Parametric (BNP) approach using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favors models without tipping points -- leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The GPDP performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective, and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, since it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important area of machine learning. In this work we developed a novel method that employs Transformer-based machine learning models to forecast time series data. This approach works by leveraging self-attention mechanisms to learn complex patterns and dynamics from time series data. Moreover, it is a generic framework and can be applied to univariate and multivariate time series data, as well as time series embeddings. Using influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting as a case study, we show that the forecasting results produced by our approach are favorably comparable to the state-of-the-art.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.

It has recently been conjectured that neural network solution sets reachable via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are convex, considering permutation invariances (Entezari et al., 2022). This means that a linear path can connect two independent solutions with low loss, given the weights of one of the models are appropriately permuted. However, current methods to test this theory often require very wide networks to succeed. In this work, we conjecture that more generally, the SGD solution set is a "star domain" that contains a "star model" that is linearly connected to all the other solutions via paths with low loss values, modulo permutations. We propose the Starlight algorithm that finds a star model of a given learning task. We validate our claim by showing that this star model is linearly connected with other independently found solutions. As an additional benefit of our study, we demonstrate better uncertainty estimates on the Bayesian Model Averaging over the obtained star domain. Further, we demonstrate star models as potential substitutes for model ensembles. Our code is available at https://github.com/aktsonthalia/starlight.

The atmosphere affects humans in a multitude of ways, from loss of life due to adverse weather effects to long-term social and economic impacts on societies. Computer simulations of atmospheric dynamics are, therefore, of great importance for the well-being of our and future generations. Here, we propose AtmoRep, a novel, task-independent stochastic computer model of atmospheric dynamics that can provide skillful results for a wide range of applications. AtmoRep uses large-scale representation learning from artificial intelligence to determine a general description of the highly complex, stochastic dynamics of the atmosphere from the best available estimate of the system's historical trajectory as constrained by observations. This is enabled by a novel self-supervised learning objective and a unique ensemble that samples from the stochastic model with a variability informed by the one in the historical record. The task-independent nature of AtmoRep enables skillful results for a diverse set of applications without specifically training for them and we demonstrate this for nowcasting, temporal interpolation, model correction, and counterfactuals. We also show that AtmoRep can be improved with additional data, for example radar observations, and that it can be extended to tasks such as downscaling. Our work establishes that large-scale neural networks can provide skillful, task-independent models of atmospheric dynamics. With this, they provide a novel means to make the large record of atmospheric observations accessible for applications and for scientific inquiry, complementing existing simulations based on first principles.

Providing effective treatment and making informed clinical decisions are essential goals of modern medicine and clinical care. We are interested in simulating disease dynamics for clinical decision-making, leveraging recent advances in large generative models. To this end, we introduce the Medical World Model (MeWM), the first world model in medicine that visually predicts future disease states based on clinical decisions. MeWM comprises (i) vision-language models to serve as policy models, and (ii) tumor generative models as dynamics models. The policy model generates action plans, such as clinical treatments, while the dynamics model simulates tumor progression or regression under given treatment conditions. Building on this, we propose the inverse dynamics model that applies survival analysis to the simulated post-treatment tumor, enabling the evaluation of treatment efficacy and the selection of the optimal clinical action plan. As a result, the proposed MeWM simulates disease dynamics by synthesizing post-treatment tumors, with state-of-the-art specificity in Turing tests evaluated by radiologists. Simultaneously, its inverse dynamics model outperforms medical-specialized GPTs in optimizing individualized treatment protocols across all metrics. Notably, MeWM improves clinical decision-making for interventional physicians, boosting F1-score in selecting the optimal TACE protocol by 13%, paving the way for future integration of medical world models as the second readers.

Structured state-space models (SSMs) such as S4, stemming from the seminal work of Gu et al., are gaining popularity as effective approaches for modeling sequential data. Deep SSMs demonstrate outstanding performance across a diverse set of domains, at a reduced training and inference cost compared to attention-based transformers. Recent developments show that if the linear recurrence powering SSMs allows for multiplicative interactions between inputs and hidden states (e.g. GateLoop, Mamba, GLA), then the resulting architecture can surpass in both in accuracy and efficiency attention-powered foundation models trained on text, at scales of billion parameters. In this paper, we give theoretical grounding to this recent finding using tools from Rough Path Theory: we show that when random linear recurrences are equipped with simple input-controlled transitions (selectivity mechanism), then the hidden state is provably a low-dimensional projection of a powerful mathematical object called the signature of the input -- capturing non-linear interactions between tokens at distinct timescales. Our theory not only motivates the success of modern selective state-space models such as Mamba but also provides a solid framework to understand the expressive power of future SSM variants.

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

Surrogate models are necessary to optimize meaningful quantities in physical dynamics as their recursive numerical resolutions are often prohibitively expensive. It is mainly the case for fluid dynamics and the resolution of Navier-Stokes equations. However, despite the fast-growing field of data-driven models for physical systems, reference datasets representing real-world phenomena are lacking. In this work, we develop AirfRANS, a dataset for studying the two-dimensional incompressible steady-state Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations over airfoils at a subsonic regime and for different angles of attacks. We also introduce metrics on the stress forces at the surface of geometries and visualization of boundary layers to assess the capabilities of models to accurately predict the meaningful information of the problem. Finally, we propose deep learning baselines on four machine learning tasks to study AirfRANS under different constraints for generalization considerations: big and scarce data regime, Reynolds number, and angle of attack extrapolation.

With breakthroughs in large-scale modeling, the Segment Anything Model (SAM) and its extensions have been attempted for applications in various underwater visualization tasks in marine sciences, and have had a significant impact on the academic community. Recently, Meta has further developed the Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM2), which significantly improves running speed and segmentation accuracy compared to its predecessor. This report aims to explore the potential of SAM2 in marine science by evaluating it on the underwater instance segmentation benchmark datasets UIIS and USIS10K. The experiments show that the performance of SAM2 is extremely dependent on the type of user-provided prompts. When using the ground truth bounding box as prompt, SAM2 performed excellently in the underwater instance segmentation domain. However, when running in automatic mode, SAM2's ability with point prompts to sense and segment underwater instances is significantly degraded. It is hoped that this paper will inspire researchers to further explore the SAM model family in the underwater domain. The results and evaluation codes in this paper are available at https://github.com/LiamLian0727/UnderwaterSAM2Eval.

The oceans are a source of an impressive mixture of complex data that could be used to uncover relationships yet to be discovered. Such data comes from the oceans and their surface, such as Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages used for tracking vessels' trajectories. AIS messages are transmitted over radio or satellite at ideally periodic time intervals but vary irregularly over time. As such, this paper aims to model the AIS message transmission behavior through neural networks for forecasting upcoming AIS messages' content from multiple vessels, particularly in a simultaneous approach despite messages' temporal irregularities as outliers. We present a set of experiments comprising multiple algorithms for forecasting tasks with horizon sizes of varying lengths. Deep learning models (e.g., neural networks) revealed themselves to adequately preserve vessels' spatial awareness regardless of temporal irregularity. We show how convolutional layers, feed-forward networks, and recurrent neural networks can improve such tasks by working together. Experimenting with short, medium, and large-sized sequences of messages, our model achieved 36/37/38% of the Relative Percentage Difference - the lower, the better, whereas we observed 92/45/96% on the Elman's RNN, 51/52/40% on the GRU, and 129/98/61% on the LSTM. These results support our model as a driver for improving the prediction of vessel routes when analyzing multiple vessels of diverging types simultaneously under temporally noise data.

Accurate Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) ocean simulation is critically important for marine research, yet remains challenging due to its substantial thermal inertia and extended time delay. Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated significant advancements in simulation accuracy and computational efficiency compared to traditional numerical methods. Nevertheless, a significant limitation of current ML models for S2S ocean simulation is their inadequate incorporation of physical consistency and the slow-changing properties of the ocean system. In this work, we propose a neural ocean model (NeuralOM) for S2S ocean simulation with a multi-scale interactive graph neural network to emulate diverse physical phenomena associated with ocean systems effectively. Specifically, we propose a multi-stage framework tailored to model the ocean's slowly changing nature. Additionally, we introduce a multi-scale interactive messaging module to capture complex dynamical behaviors, such as gradient changes and multiplicative coupling relationships inherent in ocean dynamics. Extensive experimental evaluations confirm that our proposed NeuralOM outperforms state-of-the-art models in S2S and extreme event simulation. The codes are available at https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/NeuralOM.

Heliophysics is central to understanding and forecasting space weather events and solar activity. Despite decades of high-resolution observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), most models remain task-specific and constrained by scarce labeled data, limiting their capacity to generalize across solar phenomena. We introduce Surya, a 366M parameter foundation model for heliophysics designed to learn general-purpose solar representations from multi-instrument SDO observations, including eight Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) channels and five Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) products. Surya employs a spatiotemporal transformer architecture with spectral gating and long--short range attention, pretrained on high-resolution solar image forecasting tasks and further optimized through autoregressive rollout tuning. Zero-shot evaluations demonstrate its ability to forecast solar dynamics and flare events, while downstream fine-tuning with parameter-efficient Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) shows strong performance on solar wind forecasting, active region segmentation, solar flare forecasting, and EUV spectra. Surya is the first foundation model in heliophysics that uses time advancement as a pretext task on full-resolution SDO data. Its novel architecture and performance suggest that the model is able to learn the underlying physics behind solar evolution.

Recent efforts on image restoration have focused on developing "all-in-one" models that can handle different degradation types and levels within single model. However, most of mainstream Transformer-based ones confronted with dilemma between model capabilities and computation burdens, since self-attention mechanism quadratically increase in computational complexity with respect to image size, and has inadequacies in capturing long-range dependencies. Most of Mamba-related ones solely scanned feature map in spatial dimension for global modeling, failing to fully utilize information in channel dimension. To address aforementioned problems, this paper has proposed to fully utilize complementary advantages from Mamba and Transformer without sacrificing computation efficiency. Specifically, the selective scanning mechanism of Mamba is employed to focus on spatial modeling, enabling capture long-range spatial dependencies under linear complexity. The self-attention mechanism of Transformer is applied to focus on channel modeling, avoiding high computation burdens that are in quadratic growth with image's spatial dimensions. Moreover, to enrich informative prompts for effective image restoration, multi-dimensional prompt learning modules are proposed to learn prompt-flows from multi-scale encoder/decoder layers, benefiting for revealing underlying characteristic of various degradations from both spatial and channel perspectives, therefore, enhancing the capabilities of "all-in-one" model to solve various restoration tasks. Extensive experiment results on several image restoration benchmark tasks such as image denoising, dehazing, and deraining, have demonstrated that the proposed method can achieve new state-of-the-art performance, compared with many popular mainstream methods. Related source codes and pre-trained parameters will be public on github https://github.com/12138-chr/MTAIR.

IceCloudNet is a novel method based on machine learning able to predict high-quality vertically resolved cloud ice water contents (IWC) and ice crystal number concentrations (N_ice). The predictions come at the spatio-temporal coverage and resolution of geostationary satellite observations (SEVIRI) and the vertical resolution of active satellite retrievals (DARDAR). IceCloudNet consists of a ConvNeXt-based U-Net and a 3D PatchGAN discriminator model and is trained by predicting DARDAR profiles from co-located SEVIRI images. Despite the sparse availability of DARDAR data due to its narrow overpass, IceCloudNet is able to predict cloud occurrence, spatial structure, and microphysical properties with high precision. The model has been applied to ten years of SEVIRI data, producing a dataset of vertically resolved IWC and N_ice of clouds containing ice with a 3 kmx3 kmx240 mx15 minute resolution in a spatial domain of 30{\deg}W to 30{\deg}E and 30{\deg}S to 30{\deg}N. The produced dataset increases the availability of vertical cloud profiles, for the period when DARDAR is available, by more than six orders of magnitude and moreover, IceCloudNet is able to produce vertical cloud profiles beyond the lifetime of the recently ended satellite missions underlying DARDAR.

The foundation model has recently garnered significant attention due to its potential to revolutionize the field of visual representation learning in a self-supervised manner. While most foundation models are tailored to effectively process RGB images for various visual tasks, there is a noticeable gap in research focused on spectral data, which offers valuable information for scene understanding, especially in remote sensing (RS) applications. To fill this gap, we created for the first time a universal RS foundation model, named SpectralGPT, which is purpose-built to handle spectral RS images using a novel 3D generative pretrained transformer (GPT). Compared to existing foundation models, SpectralGPT 1) accommodates input images with varying sizes, resolutions, time series, and regions in a progressive training fashion, enabling full utilization of extensive RS big data; 2) leverages 3D token generation for spatial-spectral coupling; 3) captures spectrally sequential patterns via multi-target reconstruction; 4) trains on one million spectral RS images, yielding models with over 600 million parameters. Our evaluation highlights significant performance improvements with pretrained SpectralGPT models, signifying substantial potential in advancing spectral RS big data applications within the field of geoscience across four downstream tasks: single/multi-label scene classification, semantic segmentation, and change detection.

While LLM agents can plan multi-step tasks, intervening at the planning stage-before any action is executed-is often the safest way to prevent harm, since certain risks can lead to severe consequences once carried out. However, existing guardrails mostly operate post-execution, which is difficult to scale and leaves little room for controllable supervision at the plan level. To address this challenge, we highlight three critical gaps in current research: data gap, model gap, and evaluation gap. To close the data gap, we introduce AuraGen, a controllable engine that (i) synthesizes benign trajectories, (ii) injects category-labeled risks with calibrated difficulty, and (iii) filters outputs via an automated reward model, producing large and reliable corpora for pre-execution safety. To close the guardian model gap, we propose a foundational guardrail Safiron, combining a cross-planner adapter with a compact guardian model. The adapter unifies different input formats, while Safiron flags risky cases, assigns risk types, and generates rationales; trained in two stages with a broadly explored data recipe, Safiron achieves robust transfer across settings. To close the evaluation gap, we release Pre-Exec Bench, a realistic benchmark covering diverse tools and branching trajectories, which measures detection, fine-grained categorization, explanation, and cross-planner generalization in human-verified scenarios. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent gains of the proposed guardrail over strong baselines on Pre-Exec Bench, and ablations further distill actionable practices, providing a practical template for safer agentic systems.

Modern techniques for physical simulations rely on numerical schemes and mesh-refinement methods to address trade-offs between precision and complexity, but these handcrafted solutions are tedious and require high computational power. Data-driven methods based on large-scale machine learning promise high adaptivity by integrating long-range dependencies more directly and efficiently. In this work, we focus on fluid dynamics and address the shortcomings of a large part of the literature, which are based on fixed support for computations and predictions in the form of regular or irregular grids. We propose a novel setup to perform predictions in a continuous spatial and temporal domain while being trained on sparse observations. We formulate the task as a double observation problem and propose a solution with two interlinked dynamical systems defined on, respectively, the sparse positions and the continuous domain, which allows to forecast and interpolate a solution from the initial condition. Our practical implementation involves recurrent GNNs and a spatio-temporal attention observer capable of interpolating the solution at arbitrary locations. Our model not only generalizes to new initial conditions (as standard auto-regressive models do) but also performs evaluation at arbitrary space and time locations. We evaluate on three standard datasets in fluid dynamics and compare to strong baselines, which are outperformed both in classical settings and in the extended new task requiring continuous predictions.

Skid-steered wheel mobile robots (SSWMRs) are characterized by the unique domination of the tire-terrain skidding for the robot to move. The lack of reliable friction models cascade into unreliable motion models, especially the reduced ordered variants used for state estimation and robot control. Ensemble modeling is an emerging research direction where the overall motion model is broken down into a family of local models to distribute the performance and resource requirement and provide a fast real-time prediction. To this end, a gaussian mixture model based modeling identification of model clusters is adopted and implemented within an interactive multiple model (IMM) based state estimation. The framework is adopted and implemented for angular velocity as the estimated state for a mid scaled skid-steered wheel mobile robot platform.

Air pollution constitutes a global problem of paramount importance that affects not only human health, but also the environment. The existence of spatial and temporal data regarding the concentrations of pollutants is crucial for performing air pollution studies and monitor emissions. However, although observation data presents great temporal coverage, the number of stations is very limited and they are usually built in more populated areas. The main objective of this work is to create models capable of inferring pollutant concentrations in locations where no observation data exists. A machine learning model, more specifically the random forest model, was developed for predicting concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula in 2019 for five selected pollutants: NO_2, O_3 SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5. Model features include satellite measurements, meteorological variables, land use classification, temporal variables (month, day of year), and spatial variables (latitude, longitude, altitude). The models were evaluated using various methods, including station 10-fold cross-validation, in which in each fold observations from 10\% of the stations are used as testing data and the rest as training data. The R^2, RMSE and mean bias were determined for each model. The NO_2 and O_3 models presented good values of R^2, 0.5524 and 0.7462, respectively. However, the SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5 models performed very poorly in this regard, with R^2 values of -0.0231, 0.3722, and 0.3303, respectively. All models slightly overestimated the ground concentrations, except the O_3 model. All models presented acceptable cross-validation RMSE, except the O_3 and PM10 models where the mean value was a little higher (12.5934 mu g/m^3 and 10.4737 mu g/m^3, respectively).

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.