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Update app.py
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app.py
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import requests
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import pandas as pd
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from io import StringIO
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import streamlit as st
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import os
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import plotly.express as px
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import plotly.graph_objects as go
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import plotly.colors as pc
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import numpy as np
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from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
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from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import acf
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from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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##GET ALL FILES FROM GITHUB
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def load_GitHub(github_token, file_name):
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url = f'https://raw.githubusercontent.com/margaridamascarenhas/Transparency_Data/main/{file_name}'
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headers = {'Authorization': f'token {github_token}'}
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response = requests.get(url, headers=headers)
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if response.status_code == 200:
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csv_content = StringIO(response.text)
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df = pd.read_csv(csv_content)
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if 'Date' in df.columns:
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df['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(df['Date']) # Convert 'Date' column to datetime
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df.set_index('Date', inplace=True) # Set 'Date' column as the index
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#df.to_csv(file_name)
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return df
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else:
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print(f"Failed to download {file_name}. Status code: {response.status_code}")
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return None
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def load_forecast(github_token):
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predictions_dict = {}
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for hour in range(24):
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file_name = f'Predictions_{hour}h.csv'
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df = load_GitHub(github_token, file_name)
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if df is not None:
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predictions_dict[file_name] = df
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return predictions_dict
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def convert_European_time(data, time_zone):
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data.index = pd.to_datetime(data.index, utc=True)
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data.index = data.index.tz_convert(time_zone)
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data.index = data.index.tz_localize(None)
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return data
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github_token =
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if github_token:
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forecast_dict = load_forecast(github_token)
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historical_forecast=load_GitHub(github_token, 'Historical_forecast.csv')
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Data_BE=load_GitHub(github_token, 'BE_Elia_Entsoe_UTC.csv')
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Data_FR=load_GitHub(github_token, 'FR_Entsoe_UTC.csv')
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Data_NL=load_GitHub(github_token, 'NL_Entsoe_UTC.csv')
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Data_DE=load_GitHub(github_token, 'DE_Entsoe_UTC.csv')
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Data_BE=convert_European_time(Data_BE, 'Europe/Brussels')
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Data_FR=convert_European_time(Data_FR, 'Europe/Paris')
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Data_NL=convert_European_time(Data_NL, 'Europe/Amsterdam')
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Data_DE=convert_European_time(Data_DE, 'Europe/Berlin')
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else:
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print("Please enter your GitHub Personal Access Token to proceed.")
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def conformal_predictions(data, target, my_forecast):
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data['Residuals'] = data[my_forecast] - data[actual_col]
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data['Hour'] = data.index.hour
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min_date = data.index.min()
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for date in data.index.normalize().unique():
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if date >= min_date + pd.DateOffset(days=30):
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start_date = date - pd.DateOffset(days=30)
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end_date = date
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calculation_window = data[start_date:end_date-pd.DateOffset(hours=1)]
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quantiles = calculation_window.groupby('Hour')['Residuals'].quantile(0.8)
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# Use .loc to safely access and modify data
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if date in data.index:
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current_day_data = data.loc[date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')]
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for hour in current_day_data['Hour'].unique():
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if hour in quantiles.index:
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hour_quantile = quantiles[hour]
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idx = (data.index.normalize() == date) & (data.Hour == hour)
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data.loc[idx, 'Quantile_80'] = hour_quantile
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data.loc[idx, 'Lower_Interval'] = data.loc[idx, my_forecast] - hour_quantile
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data.loc[idx, 'Upper_Interval'] = data.loc[idx, my_forecast] + hour_quantile
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#data.reset_index(inplace=True)
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return data
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st.title("Transparency++")
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countries = {
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'Belgium': 'BE',
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'Netherlands': 'NL',
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'Germany': 'DE',
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'France': 'FR',
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}
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st.sidebar.header('Filters')
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selected_country = st.sidebar.selectbox('Select Country', list(countries.keys()))
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st.write()
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date_range = st.sidebar.date_input("Select Date Range for Metrics Calculation:",
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value=(pd.to_datetime("2024-01-01"), pd.to_datetime(pd.Timestamp('today'))))
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# Ensure the date range provides two dates
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if len(date_range) == 2:
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start_date = pd.Timestamp(date_range[0])
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end_date = pd.Timestamp(date_range[1])
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else:
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st.error("Please select a valid date range.")
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st.stop()
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# Sidebar with radio buttons for different sections
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section = st.sidebar.radio('Section', ['Data', 'Forecasts', 'Insights'])
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country_code = countries[selected_country]
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if country_code == 'BE':
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data = Data_BE
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weather_columns = ['Temperature', 'Wind Speed Onshore', 'Wind Speed Offshore']
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data['Temperature'] = data['temperature_2m_8']
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data['Wind Speed Offshore'] = data['wind_speed_100m_4']
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data['Wind Speed Onshore'] = data['wind_speed_100m_8']
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elif country_code == 'DE':
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data = Data_DE
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weather_columns = ['Temperature', 'Wind Speed']
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data['Temperature'] = data['temperature_2m']
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data['Wind Speed'] = data['wind_speed_100m']
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elif country_code == 'NL':
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data = Data_NL
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weather_columns = ['Temperature', 'Wind Speed']
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data['Temperature'] = data['temperature_2m']
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data['Wind Speed'] = data['wind_speed_100m']
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elif country_code == 'FR':
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data = Data_FR
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weather_columns = ['Temperature', 'Wind Speed']
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data['Temperature'] = data['temperature_2m']
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data['Wind Speed'] = data['wind_speed_100m']
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def add_feature(df2, df_main):
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#df_main.index = pd.to_datetime(df_main.index)
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#df2.index = pd.to_datetime(df2.index)
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df_combined = df_main.combine_first(df2)
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last_date_df1 = df_main.index.max()
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first_date_df2 = df2.index.min()
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if first_date_df2 == last_date_df1 + pd.Timedelta(hours=1):
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df_combined = pd.concat([df_main, df2[df2.index > last_date_df1]], axis=0)
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#df_combined.reset_index(inplace=True)
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return df_combined
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#data.index = data.index.tz_localize('UTC')
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data = data.loc[start_date:end_date]
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forecast_columns = [
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'Load_entsoe','Load_forecast_entsoe','Wind_onshore_entsoe','Wind_onshore_forecast_entsoe','Wind_offshore_entsoe','Wind_offshore_forecast_entsoe','Solar_entsoe','Solar_forecast_entsoe']
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if section == 'Data':
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st.header("Data")
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st.write("""
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This section allows you to explore and upload your datasets.
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You can visualize raw data, clean it, and prepare it for analysis.
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""")
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st.header('Data Quality')
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output_text = f"The below percentages are calculated from the selected date range from {start_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')} to {end_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')}. This interval can be adjusted from the sidebar."
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st.write(output_text)
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# Report % of missing values
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missing_values = data[forecast_columns].isna().mean() * 100
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missing_values = missing_values.round(2)
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installed_capacities = {
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'FR': { 'Solar': 17419, 'Wind Offshore': 1483, 'Wind Onshore': 22134},
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'DE': { 'Solar': 73821, 'Wind Offshore': 8386, 'Wind Onshore': 59915},
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'BE': { 'Solar': 8789, 'Wind Offshore': 2262, 'Wind Onshore': 3053},
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'NL': { 'Solar': 22590, 'Wind Offshore': 3220, 'Wind Onshore': 6190},
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}
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if country_code not in installed_capacities:
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st.error(f"Installed capacities not defined for country code '{country_code}'.")
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st.stop()
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# Report % of extreme, impossible values for the selected country
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capacities = installed_capacities[country_code]
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extreme_values = {}
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for col in forecast_columns:
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if 'Solar_entsoe' in col:
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extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0) | (data[col] > capacities['Solar'])).mean() * 100
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elif 'Solar_forecast_entsoe' in col:
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extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0) | (data[col] > capacities['Solar'])).mean() * 100
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elif 'Wind_onshore_entsoe' in col:
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extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0) | (data[col] > capacities['Wind Onshore'])).mean() * 100
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elif 'Wind_onshore_forecast_entsoe' in col:
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extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0) | (data[col] > capacities['Wind Onshore'])).mean() * 100
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elif 'Wind_offshore_entsoe' in col:
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extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0) | (data[col] > capacities['Wind Offshore'])).mean() * 100
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elif 'Wind_offshore_forecast_entsoe' in col:
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extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0) | (data[col] > capacities['Wind Offshore'])).mean() * 100
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elif 'Load_entsoe' in col:
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extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0)).mean() * 100
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elif 'Load_forecast_entsoe' in col:
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extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0)).mean() * 100
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extreme_values = pd.Series(extreme_values).round(2)
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# Combine all metrics into one DataFrame
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metrics_df = pd.DataFrame({
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'Missing Values (%)': missing_values,
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'Extreme/Nonsensical Values (%)': extreme_values,
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})
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st.markdown(
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"""
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<style>
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.dataframe {font-size: 45px !important;}
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</style>
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""",
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unsafe_allow_html=True
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)
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st.dataframe(metrics_df)
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st.write('<b><u>Missing values (%)</u></b>: Percentage of missing values in the dataset', unsafe_allow_html=True)
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st.write('<b><u>Extreme/Nonsensical values (%)</u></b>: Values that are considered implausible such as negative or out-of-bound values i.e., (generation<0) or (generation>capacity)', unsafe_allow_html=True)
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# Section 2: Forecasts
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elif section == 'Forecasts':
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st.header('Forecast Quality')
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# Time series for last 1 week
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st.subheader('Time Series: Last 1 Week')
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last_week = Data_BE.loc[Data_BE.index >= (data.index[-1] - pd.Timedelta(days=7))]
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st.write('The below plots show the time series of forecasts vs. observations provided by the ENTSO-E Transparency platform between the selected data range.')
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forecast_columns_operational = [
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'Load_entsoe','Load_forecast_entsoe', 'Load_LightGBMModel.7D.TimeCov.Temp.Forecast_elia', 'Wind_onshore_entsoe','Wind_onshore_forecast_entsoe','Wind_onshore_LightGBMModel.1D.TimeCov.Temp.Forecast_elia','Wind_offshore_entsoe','Wind_offshore_forecast_entsoe','Wind_offshore_LightGBMModel.1D.TimeCov.Temp.Forecast_elia','Solar_entsoe','Solar_forecast_entsoe', 'Solar_LightGBMModel.1D.TimeCov.Temp.Forecast_elia']
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forecast_columns = [
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'Load_entsoe','Load_forecast_entsoe','Wind_onshore_entsoe','Wind_onshore_forecast_entsoe','Wind_offshore_entsoe','Wind_offshore_forecast_entsoe','Solar_entsoe','Solar_forecast_entsoe']
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operation_forecast_load=forecast_dict['Predictions_10h.csv'].filter(like='Load_', axis=1)
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operation_forecast_res=forecast_dict['Predictions_17h.csv'].filter(regex='^(?!Load_)')
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operation_forecast_load.columns = [col.replace('_entsoe.', '_').replace('Naive.7D', 'WeeklyNaiveSeasonal') for col in operation_forecast_load.columns]
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operation_forecast_res.columns = [col.replace('_entsoe.', '_').replace('Naive.1D', 'DailyNaiveSeasonal') for col in operation_forecast_res.columns]
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Historical_and_Load=add_feature(operation_forecast_load, historical_forecast)
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Historical_and_operational=add_feature(operation_forecast_res, Historical_and_Load)
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#print(Historical_and_operational.filter(like='Forecast_elia', axis=1))
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best_forecast = Historical_and_operational.filter(like='Forecast_elia', axis=1)
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df_combined = Historical_and_operational.join(Data_BE, how='inner')
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last_week_best_forecast = best_forecast.loc[best_forecast.index >= (best_forecast.index[-24] - pd.Timedelta(days=8))]
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for i in range(0, len(forecast_columns_operational), 3):
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actual_col = forecast_columns_operational[i]
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forecast_col = forecast_columns_operational[i + 1]
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my_forecast = forecast_columns_operational[i + 2]
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if forecast_col in data.columns:
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fig = go.Figure()
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fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=last_week.index, y=last_week[actual_col], mode='lines', name='Actual'))
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fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=last_week.index, y=last_week[forecast_col], mode='lines', name='Forecast ENTSO-E'))
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if country_code=='BE':
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conformal=conformal_predictions(df_combined, actual_col, my_forecast)
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last_week_conformal = conformal.loc[conformal.index >= (conformal.index[-24] - pd.Timedelta(days=8))]
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if actual_col =='Load_entsoe':
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last_week_conformal = conformal.loc[conformal.index >= (conformal.index[-24] - pd.Timedelta(days=5))]
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fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=last_week_best_forecast.index, y=last_week_best_forecast[my_forecast], mode='lines', name='Forecast EDS'))
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fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
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x=last_week_conformal.index,
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y=last_week_conformal['Lower_Interval'],
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mode='lines',
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line=dict(width=0),
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showlegend=False
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))
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# Add the upper interval trace and fill to the lower interval
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fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
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x=last_week_conformal.index,
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y=last_week_conformal['Upper_Interval'],
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mode='lines',
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line=dict(width=0),
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fill='tonexty', # Fill between this trace and the previous one
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fillcolor='rgba(68, 68, 68, 0.3)',
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name='P10/P90 prediction intervals'
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))
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fig.update_layout(title=f'Forecasts vs Actual for {actual_col}', xaxis_title='Date', yaxis_title='Value [MW]')
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st.plotly_chart(fig)
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def plot_category(df_dict, category_prefix, title):
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fig = go.Figure()
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# Define base colors for each model
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model_colors = {
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'LightGBMModel.TimeCov.Temp.Forecast_elia': '#1f77b4', # Blue
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'LightGBMModel.TimeCov.Temp': '#2ca02c', # Green
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'Naive': '#ff7f0e' # Orange
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}
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# To keep track of which model has been added to the legend
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legend_added = {'LightGBMModel.TimeCov.Temp.Forecast_elia': False, 'LightGBMModel.TimeCov.Temp': False, 'Naive': False}
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for file_name, df in df_dict.items():
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| 325 |
-
# Extract the hour from the filename, assuming the format is "Predictions_Xh.csv"
|
| 326 |
-
hour = int(file_name.split('_')[1].replace('h.csv', ''))
|
| 327 |
-
|
| 328 |
-
filtered_columns = [col for col in df.columns if col.startswith(category_prefix)]
|
| 329 |
-
for column in filtered_columns:
|
| 330 |
-
# Identify the model type with more precise logic
|
| 331 |
-
if 'LightGBMModel' in column:
|
| 332 |
-
if 'Forecast_elia' in column:
|
| 333 |
-
model_key = 'LightGBMModel.TimeCov.Temp.Forecast_elia'
|
| 334 |
-
elif 'TimeCov' in column:
|
| 335 |
-
model_key = 'LightGBMModel.TimeCov.Temp'
|
| 336 |
-
elif 'Naive' in column:
|
| 337 |
-
model_key = 'Naive'
|
| 338 |
-
else:
|
| 339 |
-
continue # Skip if it doesn't match any model type
|
| 340 |
-
|
| 341 |
-
# Extract the relevant part of the model name
|
| 342 |
-
parts = column.split('.')
|
| 343 |
-
model_name_parts = parts[1:] # Skip the variable prefix
|
| 344 |
-
model_name = '.'.join(model_name_parts) # Rejoin the parts to form the model name
|
| 345 |
-
|
| 346 |
-
# Get the base color for the model
|
| 347 |
-
base_color = model_colors[model_key]
|
| 348 |
-
|
| 349 |
-
# Calculate the color shade based on the hour
|
| 350 |
-
color_scale = pc.hex_to_rgb(base_color)
|
| 351 |
-
scale_factor = 0.3 + (hour / 40) # Adjust scale to ensure the gradient is visible
|
| 352 |
-
adjusted_color = tuple(int(c * scale_factor) for c in color_scale)
|
| 353 |
-
# Convert to RGBA with transparency for plot lines
|
| 354 |
-
line_color = f'rgba({adjusted_color[0]}, {adjusted_color[1]}, {adjusted_color[2]}, 0.1)' # Transparent color for lines
|
| 355 |
-
|
| 356 |
-
# Combine the hour and the model name for the legend, but only add the legend entry once
|
| 357 |
-
show_legend = not legend_added[model_key]
|
| 358 |
-
|
| 359 |
-
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 360 |
-
x=df.index, # Assuming 'Date' is the index, use 'df.index' for x-axis
|
| 361 |
-
y=df[column],
|
| 362 |
-
mode='lines',
|
| 363 |
-
name=model_name if show_legend else None, # Use the model name for the legend, but only once
|
| 364 |
-
line=dict(color=base_color if show_legend else line_color), # Use opaque color for legend, transparent for lines
|
| 365 |
-
showlegend=show_legend, # Show legend only once per model
|
| 366 |
-
legendgroup=model_key # Grouping for consistent legend color
|
| 367 |
-
))
|
| 368 |
-
|
| 369 |
-
# Mark that this model has been added to the legend
|
| 370 |
-
if show_legend:
|
| 371 |
-
legend_added[model_key] = True
|
| 372 |
-
|
| 373 |
-
# Add real values as a separate trace, if provided
|
| 374 |
-
filtered_Data_BE_df = Data_BE.loc[df.index]
|
| 375 |
-
|
| 376 |
-
if filtered_Data_BE_df[f'{category_prefix}_entsoe'].notna().any():
|
| 377 |
-
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 378 |
-
x=filtered_Data_BE_df.index,
|
| 379 |
-
y=filtered_Data_BE_df[f'{category_prefix}_entsoe'],
|
| 380 |
-
mode='lines',
|
| 381 |
-
name=f'Actual {category_prefix}',
|
| 382 |
-
line=dict(color='black', width=2), # Black line for real values
|
| 383 |
-
showlegend=True # Always show this in the legend
|
| 384 |
-
))
|
| 385 |
-
|
| 386 |
-
# Update layout to position the legend at the top, side by side
|
| 387 |
-
fig.update_layout(
|
| 388 |
-
title=dict(
|
| 389 |
-
text=title,
|
| 390 |
-
x=0, # Center the title horizontally
|
| 391 |
-
y=1.00, # Slightly lower the title to create more space
|
| 392 |
-
xanchor='left',
|
| 393 |
-
yanchor='top'
|
| 394 |
-
),
|
| 395 |
-
xaxis_title='Date',
|
| 396 |
-
yaxis_title='Value',
|
| 397 |
-
legend=dict(
|
| 398 |
-
orientation="h", # Horizontal legend
|
| 399 |
-
yanchor="bottom", # Align to the bottom of the legend box
|
| 400 |
-
y=1, # Increase y position to avoid overlap with the title
|
| 401 |
-
xanchor="center", # Center the legend horizontally
|
| 402 |
-
x=0.5 # Position at the center of the plot
|
| 403 |
-
)
|
| 404 |
-
)
|
| 405 |
-
return fig
|
| 406 |
-
|
| 407 |
-
if country_code == "BE":
|
| 408 |
-
st.header('EDS Forecasts by Hour')
|
| 409 |
-
|
| 410 |
-
solar_fig = plot_category(forecast_dict, 'Solar', 'Solar Predictions')
|
| 411 |
-
st.plotly_chart(solar_fig)
|
| 412 |
-
|
| 413 |
-
wind_offshore_fig = plot_category(forecast_dict, 'Wind_offshore', 'Wind Offshore Predictions')
|
| 414 |
-
st.plotly_chart(wind_offshore_fig)
|
| 415 |
-
|
| 416 |
-
wind_onshore_fig = plot_category(forecast_dict, 'Wind_onshore', 'Wind Onshore Predictions')
|
| 417 |
-
st.plotly_chart(wind_onshore_fig)
|
| 418 |
-
|
| 419 |
-
load_fig = plot_category(forecast_dict, 'Load', 'Load Predictions')
|
| 420 |
-
st.plotly_chart(load_fig)
|
| 421 |
-
|
| 422 |
-
# Scatter plots for error distribution
|
| 423 |
-
st.subheader('Error Distribution')
|
| 424 |
-
st.write('The below scatter plots show the error distribution of all three fields: Solar, Wind and Load between the selected date range')
|
| 425 |
-
for i in range(0, len(forecast_columns), 2):
|
| 426 |
-
actual_col = forecast_columns[i]
|
| 427 |
-
forecast_col = forecast_columns[i + 1]
|
| 428 |
-
if forecast_col in data.columns:
|
| 429 |
-
obs = last_week[actual_col]
|
| 430 |
-
pred = last_week[forecast_col]
|
| 431 |
-
error = pred - obs
|
| 432 |
-
|
| 433 |
-
fig = px.scatter(x=obs, y=pred, labels={'x': 'Observed [MW]', 'y': 'Predicted by ENTSO-E [MW]'})
|
| 434 |
-
fig.update_layout(title=f'Error Distribution for {forecast_col}')
|
| 435 |
-
st.plotly_chart(fig)
|
| 436 |
-
|
| 437 |
-
|
| 438 |
-
|
| 439 |
-
st.subheader('Accuracy Metrics (Sorted by rMAE):')
|
| 440 |
-
|
| 441 |
-
if country_code == "BE":
|
| 442 |
-
|
| 443 |
-
# Combine the two DataFrames on their index
|
| 444 |
-
df_combined = Historical_and_operational.join(Data_BE, how='inner')
|
| 445 |
-
# List of model columns from historical_forecast
|
| 446 |
-
model_columns = historical_forecast.columns
|
| 447 |
-
|
| 448 |
-
# Initialize dictionaries to store MAE and RMSE results for each variable
|
| 449 |
-
results_wind_onshore = {}
|
| 450 |
-
results_wind_offshore = {}
|
| 451 |
-
results_load = {}
|
| 452 |
-
results_solar = {}
|
| 453 |
-
|
| 454 |
-
# Mapping of variables to their corresponding naive models
|
| 455 |
-
naive_models = {
|
| 456 |
-
'Wind_onshore': 'Wind_onshore_DailyNaiveSeasonal',
|
| 457 |
-
'Wind_offshore': 'Wind_offshore_DailyNaiveSeasonal',
|
| 458 |
-
'Load': 'Load_WeeklyNaiveSeasonal',
|
| 459 |
-
'Solar': 'Solar_DailyNaiveSeasonal'
|
| 460 |
-
}
|
| 461 |
-
|
| 462 |
-
# Step 1: Calculate MAE, RMSE, and rMAE for each model
|
| 463 |
-
for col in model_columns:
|
| 464 |
-
# Extract the variable name by taking everything before the first underscore
|
| 465 |
-
base_variable = col.split('_')[0]
|
| 466 |
-
|
| 467 |
-
# Handle cases where variable names might be combined with multiple parts (e.g., "Load_LightGBMModel...")
|
| 468 |
-
if base_variable in ['Wind', 'Load', 'Solar']:
|
| 469 |
-
if 'onshore' in col:
|
| 470 |
-
variable_name = 'Wind_onshore'
|
| 471 |
-
results_dict = results_wind_onshore
|
| 472 |
-
elif 'offshore' in col:
|
| 473 |
-
variable_name = 'Wind_offshore'
|
| 474 |
-
results_dict = results_wind_offshore
|
| 475 |
-
else:
|
| 476 |
-
variable_name = base_variable
|
| 477 |
-
results_dict = results_load if base_variable == 'Load' else results_solar
|
| 478 |
-
else:
|
| 479 |
-
variable_name = base_variable
|
| 480 |
-
|
| 481 |
-
# Construct the corresponding `variable_entsoe` column name
|
| 482 |
-
entsoe_column = f'{variable_name}_entsoe'
|
| 483 |
-
naive_model_col = naive_models.get(variable_name, None)
|
| 484 |
-
|
| 485 |
-
# Drop NaNs for the specific pair of columns before calculating MAE and RMSE
|
| 486 |
-
if entsoe_column in df_combined.columns and naive_model_col in df_combined.columns:
|
| 487 |
-
valid_data = df_combined[[col, entsoe_column]].dropna()
|
| 488 |
-
valid_naive_data = df_combined[[entsoe_column, naive_model_col]].dropna()
|
| 489 |
-
|
| 490 |
-
# Calculate MAE and RMSE for the model against the `variable_entsoe`
|
| 491 |
-
mae = np.mean(abs(valid_data[col] - valid_data[entsoe_column]))
|
| 492 |
-
rmse = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(valid_data[col], valid_data[entsoe_column]))
|
| 493 |
-
|
| 494 |
-
# Calculate MAE for the Naive model
|
| 495 |
-
mae_naive = np.mean(abs(valid_naive_data[entsoe_column] - valid_naive_data[naive_model_col]))
|
| 496 |
-
|
| 497 |
-
# Calculate rMAE for the model
|
| 498 |
-
rMAE = mae / mae_naive if mae_naive != 0 else np.inf
|
| 499 |
-
|
| 500 |
-
# Store the results in the corresponding dictionary
|
| 501 |
-
results_dict[f'{col}'] = {'MAE': mae, 'RMSE': rmse, 'rMAE': rMAE}
|
| 502 |
-
|
| 503 |
-
# Step 2: Calculate MAE, RMSE, and rMAE for ENTSO-E forecasts specifically
|
| 504 |
-
for variable_name in naive_models.keys():
|
| 505 |
-
entsoe_column = f'{variable_name}_entsoe'
|
| 506 |
-
forecast_entsoe_column = f'{variable_name}_forecast_entsoe'
|
| 507 |
-
naive_model_col = naive_models[variable_name]
|
| 508 |
-
|
| 509 |
-
# Ensure that the ENTSO-E forecast is included in the results
|
| 510 |
-
if forecast_entsoe_column in df_combined.columns:
|
| 511 |
-
valid_data = df_combined[[forecast_entsoe_column, entsoe_column]].dropna()
|
| 512 |
-
valid_naive_data = df_combined[[entsoe_column, naive_model_col]].dropna()
|
| 513 |
-
|
| 514 |
-
# Calculate MAE and RMSE for the ENTSO-E forecast against the actuals
|
| 515 |
-
mae_entsoe = np.mean(abs(valid_data[forecast_entsoe_column] - valid_data[entsoe_column]))
|
| 516 |
-
rmse_entsoe = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(valid_data[forecast_entsoe_column], valid_data[entsoe_column]))
|
| 517 |
-
|
| 518 |
-
# Calculate rMAE for the ENTSO-E forecast
|
| 519 |
-
mae_naive = np.mean(abs(valid_naive_data[entsoe_column] - valid_naive_data[naive_model_col]))
|
| 520 |
-
rMAE_entsoe = mae_entsoe / mae_naive if mae_naive != 0 else np.inf
|
| 521 |
-
|
| 522 |
-
# Add the ENTSO-E results to the corresponding dictionary
|
| 523 |
-
if variable_name == 'Wind_onshore':
|
| 524 |
-
results_wind_onshore[forecast_entsoe_column] = {'MAE': mae_entsoe, 'RMSE': rmse_entsoe, 'rMAE': rMAE_entsoe}
|
| 525 |
-
elif variable_name == 'Wind_offshore':
|
| 526 |
-
results_wind_offshore[forecast_entsoe_column] = {'MAE': mae_entsoe, 'RMSE': rmse_entsoe, 'rMAE': rMAE_entsoe}
|
| 527 |
-
elif variable_name == 'Load':
|
| 528 |
-
results_load[forecast_entsoe_column] = {'MAE': mae_entsoe, 'RMSE': rmse_entsoe, 'rMAE': rMAE_entsoe}
|
| 529 |
-
elif variable_name == 'Solar':
|
| 530 |
-
results_solar[forecast_entsoe_column] = {'MAE': mae_entsoe, 'RMSE': rmse_entsoe, 'rMAE': rMAE_entsoe}
|
| 531 |
-
|
| 532 |
-
# Convert the dictionaries to DataFrames and sort by rMAE
|
| 533 |
-
df_wind_onshore = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(results_wind_onshore, orient='index').sort_values(by='rMAE')
|
| 534 |
-
df_wind_offshore = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(results_wind_offshore, orient='index').sort_values(by='rMAE')
|
| 535 |
-
df_load = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(results_load, orient='index').sort_values(by='rMAE')
|
| 536 |
-
df_solar = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(results_solar, orient='index').sort_values(by='rMAE')
|
| 537 |
-
|
| 538 |
-
|
| 539 |
-
st.write("##### Wind Onshore:")
|
| 540 |
-
st.dataframe(df_wind_onshore)
|
| 541 |
-
|
| 542 |
-
st.write("##### Wind Offshore:")
|
| 543 |
-
st.dataframe(df_wind_offshore)
|
| 544 |
-
|
| 545 |
-
st.write("##### Load:")
|
| 546 |
-
st.dataframe(df_load)
|
| 547 |
-
|
| 548 |
-
st.write("##### Solar:")
|
| 549 |
-
st.dataframe(df_solar)
|
| 550 |
-
|
| 551 |
-
|
| 552 |
-
|
| 553 |
-
else:
|
| 554 |
-
accuracy_metrics = pd.DataFrame(columns=['MAE', 'rMAE'], index=['Load', 'Solar', 'Wind Onshore', 'Wind Offshore'])
|
| 555 |
-
|
| 556 |
-
for i in range(0, len(forecast_columns), 2):
|
| 557 |
-
actual_col = forecast_columns[i]
|
| 558 |
-
forecast_col = forecast_columns[i + 1]
|
| 559 |
-
if forecast_col in data.columns:
|
| 560 |
-
obs = data[actual_col]
|
| 561 |
-
pred = data[forecast_col]
|
| 562 |
-
error = pred - obs
|
| 563 |
-
|
| 564 |
-
mae = round(np.mean(np.abs(error)),2)
|
| 565 |
-
if 'Load' in actual_col:
|
| 566 |
-
persistence = obs.shift(168) # Weekly persistence
|
| 567 |
-
else:
|
| 568 |
-
persistence = obs.shift(24) # Daily persistence
|
| 569 |
-
|
| 570 |
-
# Using the whole year's data for rMAE calculations
|
| 571 |
-
rmae = round(mae / np.mean(np.abs(obs - persistence)),2)
|
| 572 |
-
|
| 573 |
-
row_label = 'Load' if 'Load' in actual_col else 'Solar' if 'Solar' in actual_col else 'Wind Offshore' if 'Wind_offshore' in actual_col else 'Wind Onshore'
|
| 574 |
-
accuracy_metrics.loc[row_label] = [mae, rmae]
|
| 575 |
-
|
| 576 |
-
accuracy_metrics.dropna(how='all', inplace=True)# Sort by rMAE (second column)
|
| 577 |
-
accuracy_metrics.sort_values(by=accuracy_metrics.columns[1], ascending=True, inplace=True)
|
| 578 |
-
accuracy_metrics = accuracy_metrics.round(4)
|
| 579 |
-
|
| 580 |
-
col1, col2 = st.columns([3, 2])
|
| 581 |
-
|
| 582 |
-
with col1:
|
| 583 |
-
st.dataframe(accuracy_metrics)
|
| 584 |
-
|
| 585 |
-
with col2:
|
| 586 |
-
st.markdown("""
|
| 587 |
-
<style>
|
| 588 |
-
.big-font {
|
| 589 |
-
font-size: 20px;
|
| 590 |
-
font-weight: 500;
|
| 591 |
-
}
|
| 592 |
-
</style>
|
| 593 |
-
<div class="big-font">
|
| 594 |
-
Equations
|
| 595 |
-
</div>
|
| 596 |
-
""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 597 |
-
|
| 598 |
-
st.markdown(r"""
|
| 599 |
-
$\text{MAE} = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}|y_i - \hat{y}_i|$
|
| 600 |
-
|
| 601 |
-
|
| 602 |
-
$\text{rMAE} = \frac{\text{MAE}}{MAE_{\text{Persistence Model}}}$
|
| 603 |
-
|
| 604 |
-
|
| 605 |
-
""")
|
| 606 |
-
|
| 607 |
-
|
| 608 |
-
|
| 609 |
-
st.subheader('ACF plots of Errors')
|
| 610 |
-
st.write('The below plots show the ACF (Auto-Correlation Function) for the errors of all three fields: Solar, Wind and Load.')
|
| 611 |
-
|
| 612 |
-
for i in range(0, len(forecast_columns), 2):
|
| 613 |
-
actual_col = forecast_columns[i]
|
| 614 |
-
forecast_col = forecast_columns[i + 1]
|
| 615 |
-
if forecast_col in data.columns:
|
| 616 |
-
obs = data[actual_col]
|
| 617 |
-
pred = data[forecast_col]
|
| 618 |
-
error = pred - obs
|
| 619 |
-
|
| 620 |
-
st.write(f"**ACF of Errors for {actual_col}**")
|
| 621 |
-
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 5))
|
| 622 |
-
plot_acf(error.dropna(), ax=ax)
|
| 623 |
-
st.pyplot(fig)
|
| 624 |
-
|
| 625 |
-
acf_values = acf(error.dropna(), nlags=240)
|
| 626 |
-
|
| 627 |
-
# Section 3: Insights
|
| 628 |
-
elif section == 'Insights':
|
| 629 |
-
st.header("Insights")
|
| 630 |
-
st.write("""
|
| 631 |
-
This section provides insights derived from the data and forecasts.
|
| 632 |
-
You can visualize trends, anomalies, and other important findings.
|
| 633 |
-
""")
|
| 634 |
-
|
| 635 |
-
# Scatter plots for correlation between wind, solar, and load
|
| 636 |
-
st.subheader('Correlation between Wind, Solar, and Load')
|
| 637 |
-
st.write('The below scatter plots for correlation between all three fields: Solar, Wind and Load.')
|
| 638 |
-
|
| 639 |
-
combinations = [('Solar_entsoe', 'Load_entsoe'), ('Wind_onshore_entsoe', 'Load_entsoe'), ('Wind_offshore_entsoe', 'Load_entsoe'), ('Solar_entsoe', 'Wind_onshore_entsoe'), ('Solar_entsoe', 'Wind_offshore_entsoe')]
|
| 640 |
-
|
| 641 |
-
for x_col, y_col in combinations:
|
| 642 |
-
if x_col in data.columns and y_col in data.columns:
|
| 643 |
-
# For solar combinations, filter out zero values
|
| 644 |
-
if 'Solar_entsoe' in x_col:
|
| 645 |
-
filtered_data = data[data['Solar_entsoe'] > 0]
|
| 646 |
-
x_values = filtered_data[x_col]
|
| 647 |
-
y_values = filtered_data[y_col]
|
| 648 |
-
else:
|
| 649 |
-
x_values = data[x_col]
|
| 650 |
-
y_values = data[y_col]
|
| 651 |
-
|
| 652 |
-
corr_coef = x_values.corr(y_values)
|
| 653 |
-
fig = px.scatter(
|
| 654 |
-
x=x_values,
|
| 655 |
-
y=y_values,
|
| 656 |
-
labels={'x': f'{x_col} [MW]', 'y': f'{y_col} [MW]'},
|
| 657 |
-
title=f'{x_col} vs {y_col} (Correlation: {corr_coef:.2f})', color_discrete_sequence=['grey'])
|
| 658 |
-
st.plotly_chart(fig)
|
| 659 |
-
|
| 660 |
-
|
| 661 |
-
st.subheader('Weather vs. Generation/Demand')
|
| 662 |
-
st.write('The below scatter plots show the relation between weather parameters (i.e., Temperature, Wind Speed) and generation/demand.')
|
| 663 |
-
|
| 664 |
-
for weather_col in weather_columns:
|
| 665 |
-
for actual_col in ['Load_entsoe', 'Solar_entsoe', 'Wind_onshore_entsoe', 'Wind_offshore_entsoe']:
|
| 666 |
-
if weather_col in data.columns and actual_col in data.columns:
|
| 667 |
-
clean_label = actual_col.replace('_entsoe', '')
|
| 668 |
-
if weather_col == 'Temperature':
|
| 669 |
-
fig = px.scatter(x=data[weather_col], y=data[actual_col], labels={'x': f'{weather_col} (°C)', 'y': f'{clean_label} Generation [MW]'}, color_discrete_sequence=['orange'])
|
| 670 |
-
else:
|
| 671 |
-
fig = px.scatter(x=data[weather_col], y=data[actual_col], labels={'x': f'{weather_col} (km/h)', 'y': clean_label})
|
| 672 |
-
fig.update_layout(title=f'{weather_col} vs {actual_col}')
|
| 673 |
-
st.plotly_chart(fig)
|
| 674 |
-
|
| 675 |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
import requests
|
| 2 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 3 |
+
from io import StringIO
|
| 4 |
+
import streamlit as st
|
| 5 |
+
import os
|
| 6 |
+
import plotly.express as px
|
| 7 |
+
import plotly.graph_objects as go
|
| 8 |
+
import plotly.colors as pc
|
| 9 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 10 |
+
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
|
| 11 |
+
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import acf
|
| 12 |
+
from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf
|
| 13 |
+
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
| 14 |
+
|
| 15 |
+
|
| 16 |
+
##GET ALL FILES FROM GITHUB
|
| 17 |
+
def load_GitHub(github_token, file_name):
|
| 18 |
+
url = f'https://raw.githubusercontent.com/margaridamascarenhas/Transparency_Data/main/{file_name}'
|
| 19 |
+
headers = {'Authorization': f'token {github_token}'}
|
| 20 |
+
|
| 21 |
+
response = requests.get(url, headers=headers)
|
| 22 |
+
|
| 23 |
+
if response.status_code == 200:
|
| 24 |
+
csv_content = StringIO(response.text)
|
| 25 |
+
df = pd.read_csv(csv_content)
|
| 26 |
+
if 'Date' in df.columns:
|
| 27 |
+
df['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(df['Date']) # Convert 'Date' column to datetime
|
| 28 |
+
df.set_index('Date', inplace=True) # Set 'Date' column as the index
|
| 29 |
+
#df.to_csv(file_name)
|
| 30 |
+
return df
|
| 31 |
+
else:
|
| 32 |
+
print(f"Failed to download {file_name}. Status code: {response.status_code}")
|
| 33 |
+
return None
|
| 34 |
+
|
| 35 |
+
def load_forecast(github_token):
|
| 36 |
+
predictions_dict = {}
|
| 37 |
+
for hour in range(24):
|
| 38 |
+
file_name = f'Predictions_{hour}h.csv'
|
| 39 |
+
df = load_GitHub(github_token, file_name)
|
| 40 |
+
if df is not None:
|
| 41 |
+
predictions_dict[file_name] = df
|
| 42 |
+
return predictions_dict
|
| 43 |
+
|
| 44 |
+
def convert_European_time(data, time_zone):
|
| 45 |
+
data.index = pd.to_datetime(data.index, utc=True)
|
| 46 |
+
data.index = data.index.tz_convert(time_zone)
|
| 47 |
+
data.index = data.index.tz_localize(None)
|
| 48 |
+
return data
|
| 49 |
+
|
| 50 |
+
github_token = st.secrets["GitHub_Token_KUL_Margarida"]
|
| 51 |
+
|
| 52 |
+
if github_token:
|
| 53 |
+
forecast_dict = load_forecast(github_token)
|
| 54 |
+
|
| 55 |
+
historical_forecast=load_GitHub(github_token, 'Historical_forecast.csv')
|
| 56 |
+
|
| 57 |
+
Data_BE=load_GitHub(github_token, 'BE_Elia_Entsoe_UTC.csv')
|
| 58 |
+
Data_FR=load_GitHub(github_token, 'FR_Entsoe_UTC.csv')
|
| 59 |
+
Data_NL=load_GitHub(github_token, 'NL_Entsoe_UTC.csv')
|
| 60 |
+
Data_DE=load_GitHub(github_token, 'DE_Entsoe_UTC.csv')
|
| 61 |
+
|
| 62 |
+
Data_BE=convert_European_time(Data_BE, 'Europe/Brussels')
|
| 63 |
+
Data_FR=convert_European_time(Data_FR, 'Europe/Paris')
|
| 64 |
+
Data_NL=convert_European_time(Data_NL, 'Europe/Amsterdam')
|
| 65 |
+
Data_DE=convert_European_time(Data_DE, 'Europe/Berlin')
|
| 66 |
+
|
| 67 |
+
|
| 68 |
+
else:
|
| 69 |
+
print("Please enter your GitHub Personal Access Token to proceed.")
|
| 70 |
+
|
| 71 |
+
def conformal_predictions(data, target, my_forecast):
|
| 72 |
+
data['Residuals'] = data[my_forecast] - data[actual_col]
|
| 73 |
+
data['Hour'] = data.index.hour
|
| 74 |
+
|
| 75 |
+
min_date = data.index.min()
|
| 76 |
+
for date in data.index.normalize().unique():
|
| 77 |
+
if date >= min_date + pd.DateOffset(days=30):
|
| 78 |
+
start_date = date - pd.DateOffset(days=30)
|
| 79 |
+
end_date = date
|
| 80 |
+
calculation_window = data[start_date:end_date-pd.DateOffset(hours=1)]
|
| 81 |
+
quantiles = calculation_window.groupby('Hour')['Residuals'].quantile(0.8)
|
| 82 |
+
# Use .loc to safely access and modify data
|
| 83 |
+
if date in data.index:
|
| 84 |
+
current_day_data = data.loc[date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')]
|
| 85 |
+
for hour in current_day_data['Hour'].unique():
|
| 86 |
+
if hour in quantiles.index:
|
| 87 |
+
hour_quantile = quantiles[hour]
|
| 88 |
+
idx = (data.index.normalize() == date) & (data.Hour == hour)
|
| 89 |
+
data.loc[idx, 'Quantile_80'] = hour_quantile
|
| 90 |
+
data.loc[idx, 'Lower_Interval'] = data.loc[idx, my_forecast] - hour_quantile
|
| 91 |
+
data.loc[idx, 'Upper_Interval'] = data.loc[idx, my_forecast] + hour_quantile
|
| 92 |
+
#data.reset_index(inplace=True)
|
| 93 |
+
return data
|
| 94 |
+
|
| 95 |
+
|
| 96 |
+
st.title("Transparency++")
|
| 97 |
+
|
| 98 |
+
countries = {
|
| 99 |
+
'Belgium': 'BE',
|
| 100 |
+
'Netherlands': 'NL',
|
| 101 |
+
'Germany': 'DE',
|
| 102 |
+
'France': 'FR',
|
| 103 |
+
}
|
| 104 |
+
|
| 105 |
+
|
| 106 |
+
st.sidebar.header('Filters')
|
| 107 |
+
|
| 108 |
+
selected_country = st.sidebar.selectbox('Select Country', list(countries.keys()))
|
| 109 |
+
|
| 110 |
+
|
| 111 |
+
st.write()
|
| 112 |
+
date_range = st.sidebar.date_input("Select Date Range for Metrics Calculation:",
|
| 113 |
+
value=(pd.to_datetime("2024-01-01"), pd.to_datetime(pd.Timestamp('today'))))
|
| 114 |
+
|
| 115 |
+
# Ensure the date range provides two dates
|
| 116 |
+
if len(date_range) == 2:
|
| 117 |
+
start_date = pd.Timestamp(date_range[0])
|
| 118 |
+
end_date = pd.Timestamp(date_range[1])
|
| 119 |
+
else:
|
| 120 |
+
st.error("Please select a valid date range.")
|
| 121 |
+
st.stop()
|
| 122 |
+
|
| 123 |
+
# Sidebar with radio buttons for different sections
|
| 124 |
+
section = st.sidebar.radio('Section', ['Data', 'Forecasts', 'Insights'])
|
| 125 |
+
|
| 126 |
+
|
| 127 |
+
country_code = countries[selected_country]
|
| 128 |
+
if country_code == 'BE':
|
| 129 |
+
data = Data_BE
|
| 130 |
+
weather_columns = ['Temperature', 'Wind Speed Onshore', 'Wind Speed Offshore']
|
| 131 |
+
data['Temperature'] = data['temperature_2m_8']
|
| 132 |
+
data['Wind Speed Offshore'] = data['wind_speed_100m_4']
|
| 133 |
+
data['Wind Speed Onshore'] = data['wind_speed_100m_8']
|
| 134 |
+
|
| 135 |
+
elif country_code == 'DE':
|
| 136 |
+
data = Data_DE
|
| 137 |
+
weather_columns = ['Temperature', 'Wind Speed']
|
| 138 |
+
data['Temperature'] = data['temperature_2m']
|
| 139 |
+
data['Wind Speed'] = data['wind_speed_100m']
|
| 140 |
+
|
| 141 |
+
elif country_code == 'NL':
|
| 142 |
+
data = Data_NL
|
| 143 |
+
weather_columns = ['Temperature', 'Wind Speed']
|
| 144 |
+
data['Temperature'] = data['temperature_2m']
|
| 145 |
+
data['Wind Speed'] = data['wind_speed_100m']
|
| 146 |
+
|
| 147 |
+
elif country_code == 'FR':
|
| 148 |
+
data = Data_FR
|
| 149 |
+
weather_columns = ['Temperature', 'Wind Speed']
|
| 150 |
+
data['Temperature'] = data['temperature_2m']
|
| 151 |
+
data['Wind Speed'] = data['wind_speed_100m']
|
| 152 |
+
|
| 153 |
+
def add_feature(df2, df_main):
|
| 154 |
+
#df_main.index = pd.to_datetime(df_main.index)
|
| 155 |
+
#df2.index = pd.to_datetime(df2.index)
|
| 156 |
+
df_combined = df_main.combine_first(df2)
|
| 157 |
+
last_date_df1 = df_main.index.max()
|
| 158 |
+
first_date_df2 = df2.index.min()
|
| 159 |
+
if first_date_df2 == last_date_df1 + pd.Timedelta(hours=1):
|
| 160 |
+
df_combined = pd.concat([df_main, df2[df2.index > last_date_df1]], axis=0)
|
| 161 |
+
#df_combined.reset_index(inplace=True)
|
| 162 |
+
return df_combined
|
| 163 |
+
#data.index = data.index.tz_localize('UTC')
|
| 164 |
+
data = data.loc[start_date:end_date]
|
| 165 |
+
|
| 166 |
+
forecast_columns = [
|
| 167 |
+
'Load_entsoe','Load_forecast_entsoe','Wind_onshore_entsoe','Wind_onshore_forecast_entsoe','Wind_offshore_entsoe','Wind_offshore_forecast_entsoe','Solar_entsoe','Solar_forecast_entsoe']
|
| 168 |
+
|
| 169 |
+
if section == 'Data':
|
| 170 |
+
st.header("Data")
|
| 171 |
+
st.write("""
|
| 172 |
+
This section allows you to explore and upload your datasets.
|
| 173 |
+
You can visualize raw data, clean it, and prepare it for analysis.
|
| 174 |
+
""")
|
| 175 |
+
|
| 176 |
+
st.header('Data Quality')
|
| 177 |
+
|
| 178 |
+
output_text = f"The below percentages are calculated from the selected date range from {start_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')} to {end_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')}. This interval can be adjusted from the sidebar."
|
| 179 |
+
st.write(output_text)
|
| 180 |
+
|
| 181 |
+
# Report % of missing values
|
| 182 |
+
missing_values = data[forecast_columns].isna().mean() * 100
|
| 183 |
+
missing_values = missing_values.round(2)
|
| 184 |
+
|
| 185 |
+
installed_capacities = {
|
| 186 |
+
'FR': { 'Solar': 17419, 'Wind Offshore': 1483, 'Wind Onshore': 22134},
|
| 187 |
+
'DE': { 'Solar': 73821, 'Wind Offshore': 8386, 'Wind Onshore': 59915},
|
| 188 |
+
'BE': { 'Solar': 8789, 'Wind Offshore': 2262, 'Wind Onshore': 3053},
|
| 189 |
+
'NL': { 'Solar': 22590, 'Wind Offshore': 3220, 'Wind Onshore': 6190},
|
| 190 |
+
}
|
| 191 |
+
|
| 192 |
+
if country_code not in installed_capacities:
|
| 193 |
+
st.error(f"Installed capacities not defined for country code '{country_code}'.")
|
| 194 |
+
st.stop()
|
| 195 |
+
|
| 196 |
+
|
| 197 |
+
# Report % of extreme, impossible values for the selected country
|
| 198 |
+
capacities = installed_capacities[country_code]
|
| 199 |
+
extreme_values = {}
|
| 200 |
+
|
| 201 |
+
for col in forecast_columns:
|
| 202 |
+
if 'Solar_entsoe' in col:
|
| 203 |
+
extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0) | (data[col] > capacities['Solar'])).mean() * 100
|
| 204 |
+
elif 'Solar_forecast_entsoe' in col:
|
| 205 |
+
extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0) | (data[col] > capacities['Solar'])).mean() * 100
|
| 206 |
+
elif 'Wind_onshore_entsoe' in col:
|
| 207 |
+
extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0) | (data[col] > capacities['Wind Onshore'])).mean() * 100
|
| 208 |
+
elif 'Wind_onshore_forecast_entsoe' in col:
|
| 209 |
+
extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0) | (data[col] > capacities['Wind Onshore'])).mean() * 100
|
| 210 |
+
elif 'Wind_offshore_entsoe' in col:
|
| 211 |
+
extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0) | (data[col] > capacities['Wind Offshore'])).mean() * 100
|
| 212 |
+
elif 'Wind_offshore_forecast_entsoe' in col:
|
| 213 |
+
extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0) | (data[col] > capacities['Wind Offshore'])).mean() * 100
|
| 214 |
+
elif 'Load_entsoe' in col:
|
| 215 |
+
extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0)).mean() * 100
|
| 216 |
+
elif 'Load_forecast_entsoe' in col:
|
| 217 |
+
extreme_values[col] = ((data[col] < 0)).mean() * 100
|
| 218 |
+
|
| 219 |
+
|
| 220 |
+
extreme_values = pd.Series(extreme_values).round(2)
|
| 221 |
+
|
| 222 |
+
# Combine all metrics into one DataFrame
|
| 223 |
+
metrics_df = pd.DataFrame({
|
| 224 |
+
'Missing Values (%)': missing_values,
|
| 225 |
+
'Extreme/Nonsensical Values (%)': extreme_values,
|
| 226 |
+
})
|
| 227 |
+
|
| 228 |
+
st.markdown(
|
| 229 |
+
"""
|
| 230 |
+
<style>
|
| 231 |
+
.dataframe {font-size: 45px !important;}
|
| 232 |
+
</style>
|
| 233 |
+
""",
|
| 234 |
+
unsafe_allow_html=True
|
| 235 |
+
)
|
| 236 |
+
|
| 237 |
+
st.dataframe(metrics_df)
|
| 238 |
+
|
| 239 |
+
st.write('<b><u>Missing values (%)</u></b>: Percentage of missing values in the dataset', unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 240 |
+
st.write('<b><u>Extreme/Nonsensical values (%)</u></b>: Values that are considered implausible such as negative or out-of-bound values i.e., (generation<0) or (generation>capacity)', unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 241 |
+
|
| 242 |
+
# Section 2: Forecasts
|
| 243 |
+
elif section == 'Forecasts':
|
| 244 |
+
|
| 245 |
+
st.header('Forecast Quality')
|
| 246 |
+
|
| 247 |
+
# Time series for last 1 week
|
| 248 |
+
st.subheader('Time Series: Last 1 Week')
|
| 249 |
+
last_week = Data_BE.loc[Data_BE.index >= (data.index[-1] - pd.Timedelta(days=7))]
|
| 250 |
+
st.write('The below plots show the time series of forecasts vs. observations provided by the ENTSO-E Transparency platform between the selected data range.')
|
| 251 |
+
forecast_columns_operational = [
|
| 252 |
+
'Load_entsoe','Load_forecast_entsoe', 'Load_LightGBMModel.7D.TimeCov.Temp.Forecast_elia', 'Wind_onshore_entsoe','Wind_onshore_forecast_entsoe','Wind_onshore_LightGBMModel.1D.TimeCov.Temp.Forecast_elia','Wind_offshore_entsoe','Wind_offshore_forecast_entsoe','Wind_offshore_LightGBMModel.1D.TimeCov.Temp.Forecast_elia','Solar_entsoe','Solar_forecast_entsoe', 'Solar_LightGBMModel.1D.TimeCov.Temp.Forecast_elia']
|
| 253 |
+
forecast_columns = [
|
| 254 |
+
'Load_entsoe','Load_forecast_entsoe','Wind_onshore_entsoe','Wind_onshore_forecast_entsoe','Wind_offshore_entsoe','Wind_offshore_forecast_entsoe','Solar_entsoe','Solar_forecast_entsoe']
|
| 255 |
+
|
| 256 |
+
operation_forecast_load=forecast_dict['Predictions_10h.csv'].filter(like='Load_', axis=1)
|
| 257 |
+
operation_forecast_res=forecast_dict['Predictions_17h.csv'].filter(regex='^(?!Load_)')
|
| 258 |
+
operation_forecast_load.columns = [col.replace('_entsoe.', '_').replace('Naive.7D', 'WeeklyNaiveSeasonal') for col in operation_forecast_load.columns]
|
| 259 |
+
operation_forecast_res.columns = [col.replace('_entsoe.', '_').replace('Naive.1D', 'DailyNaiveSeasonal') for col in operation_forecast_res.columns]
|
| 260 |
+
Historical_and_Load=add_feature(operation_forecast_load, historical_forecast)
|
| 261 |
+
Historical_and_operational=add_feature(operation_forecast_res, Historical_and_Load)
|
| 262 |
+
#print(Historical_and_operational.filter(like='Forecast_elia', axis=1))
|
| 263 |
+
best_forecast = Historical_and_operational.filter(like='Forecast_elia', axis=1)
|
| 264 |
+
df_combined = Historical_and_operational.join(Data_BE, how='inner')
|
| 265 |
+
last_week_best_forecast = best_forecast.loc[best_forecast.index >= (best_forecast.index[-24] - pd.Timedelta(days=8))]
|
| 266 |
+
|
| 267 |
+
|
| 268 |
+
for i in range(0, len(forecast_columns_operational), 3):
|
| 269 |
+
actual_col = forecast_columns_operational[i]
|
| 270 |
+
forecast_col = forecast_columns_operational[i + 1]
|
| 271 |
+
my_forecast = forecast_columns_operational[i + 2]
|
| 272 |
+
|
| 273 |
+
|
| 274 |
+
if forecast_col in data.columns:
|
| 275 |
+
fig = go.Figure()
|
| 276 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=last_week.index, y=last_week[actual_col], mode='lines', name='Actual'))
|
| 277 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=last_week.index, y=last_week[forecast_col], mode='lines', name='Forecast ENTSO-E'))
|
| 278 |
+
|
| 279 |
+
if country_code=='BE':
|
| 280 |
+
conformal=conformal_predictions(df_combined, actual_col, my_forecast)
|
| 281 |
+
last_week_conformal = conformal.loc[conformal.index >= (conformal.index[-24] - pd.Timedelta(days=8))]
|
| 282 |
+
if actual_col =='Load_entsoe':
|
| 283 |
+
last_week_conformal = conformal.loc[conformal.index >= (conformal.index[-24] - pd.Timedelta(days=5))]
|
| 284 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=last_week_best_forecast.index, y=last_week_best_forecast[my_forecast], mode='lines', name='Forecast EDS'))
|
| 285 |
+
|
| 286 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 287 |
+
x=last_week_conformal.index,
|
| 288 |
+
y=last_week_conformal['Lower_Interval'],
|
| 289 |
+
mode='lines',
|
| 290 |
+
line=dict(width=0),
|
| 291 |
+
showlegend=False
|
| 292 |
+
))
|
| 293 |
+
|
| 294 |
+
# Add the upper interval trace and fill to the lower interval
|
| 295 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 296 |
+
x=last_week_conformal.index,
|
| 297 |
+
y=last_week_conformal['Upper_Interval'],
|
| 298 |
+
mode='lines',
|
| 299 |
+
line=dict(width=0),
|
| 300 |
+
fill='tonexty', # Fill between this trace and the previous one
|
| 301 |
+
fillcolor='rgba(68, 68, 68, 0.3)',
|
| 302 |
+
name='P10/P90 prediction intervals'
|
| 303 |
+
))
|
| 304 |
+
|
| 305 |
+
|
| 306 |
+
fig.update_layout(title=f'Forecasts vs Actual for {actual_col}', xaxis_title='Date', yaxis_title='Value [MW]')
|
| 307 |
+
|
| 308 |
+
st.plotly_chart(fig)
|
| 309 |
+
|
| 310 |
+
|
| 311 |
+
def plot_category(df_dict, category_prefix, title):
|
| 312 |
+
fig = go.Figure()
|
| 313 |
+
|
| 314 |
+
# Define base colors for each model
|
| 315 |
+
model_colors = {
|
| 316 |
+
'LightGBMModel.TimeCov.Temp.Forecast_elia': '#1f77b4', # Blue
|
| 317 |
+
'LightGBMModel.TimeCov.Temp': '#2ca02c', # Green
|
| 318 |
+
'Naive': '#ff7f0e' # Orange
|
| 319 |
+
}
|
| 320 |
+
|
| 321 |
+
# To keep track of which model has been added to the legend
|
| 322 |
+
legend_added = {'LightGBMModel.TimeCov.Temp.Forecast_elia': False, 'LightGBMModel.TimeCov.Temp': False, 'Naive': False}
|
| 323 |
+
|
| 324 |
+
for file_name, df in df_dict.items():
|
| 325 |
+
# Extract the hour from the filename, assuming the format is "Predictions_Xh.csv"
|
| 326 |
+
hour = int(file_name.split('_')[1].replace('h.csv', ''))
|
| 327 |
+
|
| 328 |
+
filtered_columns = [col for col in df.columns if col.startswith(category_prefix)]
|
| 329 |
+
for column in filtered_columns:
|
| 330 |
+
# Identify the model type with more precise logic
|
| 331 |
+
if 'LightGBMModel' in column:
|
| 332 |
+
if 'Forecast_elia' in column:
|
| 333 |
+
model_key = 'LightGBMModel.TimeCov.Temp.Forecast_elia'
|
| 334 |
+
elif 'TimeCov' in column:
|
| 335 |
+
model_key = 'LightGBMModel.TimeCov.Temp'
|
| 336 |
+
elif 'Naive' in column:
|
| 337 |
+
model_key = 'Naive'
|
| 338 |
+
else:
|
| 339 |
+
continue # Skip if it doesn't match any model type
|
| 340 |
+
|
| 341 |
+
# Extract the relevant part of the model name
|
| 342 |
+
parts = column.split('.')
|
| 343 |
+
model_name_parts = parts[1:] # Skip the variable prefix
|
| 344 |
+
model_name = '.'.join(model_name_parts) # Rejoin the parts to form the model name
|
| 345 |
+
|
| 346 |
+
# Get the base color for the model
|
| 347 |
+
base_color = model_colors[model_key]
|
| 348 |
+
|
| 349 |
+
# Calculate the color shade based on the hour
|
| 350 |
+
color_scale = pc.hex_to_rgb(base_color)
|
| 351 |
+
scale_factor = 0.3 + (hour / 40) # Adjust scale to ensure the gradient is visible
|
| 352 |
+
adjusted_color = tuple(int(c * scale_factor) for c in color_scale)
|
| 353 |
+
# Convert to RGBA with transparency for plot lines
|
| 354 |
+
line_color = f'rgba({adjusted_color[0]}, {adjusted_color[1]}, {adjusted_color[2]}, 0.1)' # Transparent color for lines
|
| 355 |
+
|
| 356 |
+
# Combine the hour and the model name for the legend, but only add the legend entry once
|
| 357 |
+
show_legend = not legend_added[model_key]
|
| 358 |
+
|
| 359 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 360 |
+
x=df.index, # Assuming 'Date' is the index, use 'df.index' for x-axis
|
| 361 |
+
y=df[column],
|
| 362 |
+
mode='lines',
|
| 363 |
+
name=model_name if show_legend else None, # Use the model name for the legend, but only once
|
| 364 |
+
line=dict(color=base_color if show_legend else line_color), # Use opaque color for legend, transparent for lines
|
| 365 |
+
showlegend=show_legend, # Show legend only once per model
|
| 366 |
+
legendgroup=model_key # Grouping for consistent legend color
|
| 367 |
+
))
|
| 368 |
+
|
| 369 |
+
# Mark that this model has been added to the legend
|
| 370 |
+
if show_legend:
|
| 371 |
+
legend_added[model_key] = True
|
| 372 |
+
|
| 373 |
+
# Add real values as a separate trace, if provided
|
| 374 |
+
filtered_Data_BE_df = Data_BE.loc[df.index]
|
| 375 |
+
|
| 376 |
+
if filtered_Data_BE_df[f'{category_prefix}_entsoe'].notna().any():
|
| 377 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 378 |
+
x=filtered_Data_BE_df.index,
|
| 379 |
+
y=filtered_Data_BE_df[f'{category_prefix}_entsoe'],
|
| 380 |
+
mode='lines',
|
| 381 |
+
name=f'Actual {category_prefix}',
|
| 382 |
+
line=dict(color='black', width=2), # Black line for real values
|
| 383 |
+
showlegend=True # Always show this in the legend
|
| 384 |
+
))
|
| 385 |
+
|
| 386 |
+
# Update layout to position the legend at the top, side by side
|
| 387 |
+
fig.update_layout(
|
| 388 |
+
title=dict(
|
| 389 |
+
text=title,
|
| 390 |
+
x=0, # Center the title horizontally
|
| 391 |
+
y=1.00, # Slightly lower the title to create more space
|
| 392 |
+
xanchor='left',
|
| 393 |
+
yanchor='top'
|
| 394 |
+
),
|
| 395 |
+
xaxis_title='Date',
|
| 396 |
+
yaxis_title='Value',
|
| 397 |
+
legend=dict(
|
| 398 |
+
orientation="h", # Horizontal legend
|
| 399 |
+
yanchor="bottom", # Align to the bottom of the legend box
|
| 400 |
+
y=1, # Increase y position to avoid overlap with the title
|
| 401 |
+
xanchor="center", # Center the legend horizontally
|
| 402 |
+
x=0.5 # Position at the center of the plot
|
| 403 |
+
)
|
| 404 |
+
)
|
| 405 |
+
return fig
|
| 406 |
+
|
| 407 |
+
if country_code == "BE":
|
| 408 |
+
st.header('EDS Forecasts by Hour')
|
| 409 |
+
|
| 410 |
+
solar_fig = plot_category(forecast_dict, 'Solar', 'Solar Predictions')
|
| 411 |
+
st.plotly_chart(solar_fig)
|
| 412 |
+
|
| 413 |
+
wind_offshore_fig = plot_category(forecast_dict, 'Wind_offshore', 'Wind Offshore Predictions')
|
| 414 |
+
st.plotly_chart(wind_offshore_fig)
|
| 415 |
+
|
| 416 |
+
wind_onshore_fig = plot_category(forecast_dict, 'Wind_onshore', 'Wind Onshore Predictions')
|
| 417 |
+
st.plotly_chart(wind_onshore_fig)
|
| 418 |
+
|
| 419 |
+
load_fig = plot_category(forecast_dict, 'Load', 'Load Predictions')
|
| 420 |
+
st.plotly_chart(load_fig)
|
| 421 |
+
|
| 422 |
+
# Scatter plots for error distribution
|
| 423 |
+
st.subheader('Error Distribution')
|
| 424 |
+
st.write('The below scatter plots show the error distribution of all three fields: Solar, Wind and Load between the selected date range')
|
| 425 |
+
for i in range(0, len(forecast_columns), 2):
|
| 426 |
+
actual_col = forecast_columns[i]
|
| 427 |
+
forecast_col = forecast_columns[i + 1]
|
| 428 |
+
if forecast_col in data.columns:
|
| 429 |
+
obs = last_week[actual_col]
|
| 430 |
+
pred = last_week[forecast_col]
|
| 431 |
+
error = pred - obs
|
| 432 |
+
|
| 433 |
+
fig = px.scatter(x=obs, y=pred, labels={'x': 'Observed [MW]', 'y': 'Predicted by ENTSO-E [MW]'})
|
| 434 |
+
fig.update_layout(title=f'Error Distribution for {forecast_col}')
|
| 435 |
+
st.plotly_chart(fig)
|
| 436 |
+
|
| 437 |
+
|
| 438 |
+
|
| 439 |
+
st.subheader('Accuracy Metrics (Sorted by rMAE):')
|
| 440 |
+
|
| 441 |
+
if country_code == "BE":
|
| 442 |
+
|
| 443 |
+
# Combine the two DataFrames on their index
|
| 444 |
+
df_combined = Historical_and_operational.join(Data_BE, how='inner')
|
| 445 |
+
# List of model columns from historical_forecast
|
| 446 |
+
model_columns = historical_forecast.columns
|
| 447 |
+
|
| 448 |
+
# Initialize dictionaries to store MAE and RMSE results for each variable
|
| 449 |
+
results_wind_onshore = {}
|
| 450 |
+
results_wind_offshore = {}
|
| 451 |
+
results_load = {}
|
| 452 |
+
results_solar = {}
|
| 453 |
+
|
| 454 |
+
# Mapping of variables to their corresponding naive models
|
| 455 |
+
naive_models = {
|
| 456 |
+
'Wind_onshore': 'Wind_onshore_DailyNaiveSeasonal',
|
| 457 |
+
'Wind_offshore': 'Wind_offshore_DailyNaiveSeasonal',
|
| 458 |
+
'Load': 'Load_WeeklyNaiveSeasonal',
|
| 459 |
+
'Solar': 'Solar_DailyNaiveSeasonal'
|
| 460 |
+
}
|
| 461 |
+
|
| 462 |
+
# Step 1: Calculate MAE, RMSE, and rMAE for each model
|
| 463 |
+
for col in model_columns:
|
| 464 |
+
# Extract the variable name by taking everything before the first underscore
|
| 465 |
+
base_variable = col.split('_')[0]
|
| 466 |
+
|
| 467 |
+
# Handle cases where variable names might be combined with multiple parts (e.g., "Load_LightGBMModel...")
|
| 468 |
+
if base_variable in ['Wind', 'Load', 'Solar']:
|
| 469 |
+
if 'onshore' in col:
|
| 470 |
+
variable_name = 'Wind_onshore'
|
| 471 |
+
results_dict = results_wind_onshore
|
| 472 |
+
elif 'offshore' in col:
|
| 473 |
+
variable_name = 'Wind_offshore'
|
| 474 |
+
results_dict = results_wind_offshore
|
| 475 |
+
else:
|
| 476 |
+
variable_name = base_variable
|
| 477 |
+
results_dict = results_load if base_variable == 'Load' else results_solar
|
| 478 |
+
else:
|
| 479 |
+
variable_name = base_variable
|
| 480 |
+
|
| 481 |
+
# Construct the corresponding `variable_entsoe` column name
|
| 482 |
+
entsoe_column = f'{variable_name}_entsoe'
|
| 483 |
+
naive_model_col = naive_models.get(variable_name, None)
|
| 484 |
+
|
| 485 |
+
# Drop NaNs for the specific pair of columns before calculating MAE and RMSE
|
| 486 |
+
if entsoe_column in df_combined.columns and naive_model_col in df_combined.columns:
|
| 487 |
+
valid_data = df_combined[[col, entsoe_column]].dropna()
|
| 488 |
+
valid_naive_data = df_combined[[entsoe_column, naive_model_col]].dropna()
|
| 489 |
+
|
| 490 |
+
# Calculate MAE and RMSE for the model against the `variable_entsoe`
|
| 491 |
+
mae = np.mean(abs(valid_data[col] - valid_data[entsoe_column]))
|
| 492 |
+
rmse = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(valid_data[col], valid_data[entsoe_column]))
|
| 493 |
+
|
| 494 |
+
# Calculate MAE for the Naive model
|
| 495 |
+
mae_naive = np.mean(abs(valid_naive_data[entsoe_column] - valid_naive_data[naive_model_col]))
|
| 496 |
+
|
| 497 |
+
# Calculate rMAE for the model
|
| 498 |
+
rMAE = mae / mae_naive if mae_naive != 0 else np.inf
|
| 499 |
+
|
| 500 |
+
# Store the results in the corresponding dictionary
|
| 501 |
+
results_dict[f'{col}'] = {'MAE': mae, 'RMSE': rmse, 'rMAE': rMAE}
|
| 502 |
+
|
| 503 |
+
# Step 2: Calculate MAE, RMSE, and rMAE for ENTSO-E forecasts specifically
|
| 504 |
+
for variable_name in naive_models.keys():
|
| 505 |
+
entsoe_column = f'{variable_name}_entsoe'
|
| 506 |
+
forecast_entsoe_column = f'{variable_name}_forecast_entsoe'
|
| 507 |
+
naive_model_col = naive_models[variable_name]
|
| 508 |
+
|
| 509 |
+
# Ensure that the ENTSO-E forecast is included in the results
|
| 510 |
+
if forecast_entsoe_column in df_combined.columns:
|
| 511 |
+
valid_data = df_combined[[forecast_entsoe_column, entsoe_column]].dropna()
|
| 512 |
+
valid_naive_data = df_combined[[entsoe_column, naive_model_col]].dropna()
|
| 513 |
+
|
| 514 |
+
# Calculate MAE and RMSE for the ENTSO-E forecast against the actuals
|
| 515 |
+
mae_entsoe = np.mean(abs(valid_data[forecast_entsoe_column] - valid_data[entsoe_column]))
|
| 516 |
+
rmse_entsoe = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(valid_data[forecast_entsoe_column], valid_data[entsoe_column]))
|
| 517 |
+
|
| 518 |
+
# Calculate rMAE for the ENTSO-E forecast
|
| 519 |
+
mae_naive = np.mean(abs(valid_naive_data[entsoe_column] - valid_naive_data[naive_model_col]))
|
| 520 |
+
rMAE_entsoe = mae_entsoe / mae_naive if mae_naive != 0 else np.inf
|
| 521 |
+
|
| 522 |
+
# Add the ENTSO-E results to the corresponding dictionary
|
| 523 |
+
if variable_name == 'Wind_onshore':
|
| 524 |
+
results_wind_onshore[forecast_entsoe_column] = {'MAE': mae_entsoe, 'RMSE': rmse_entsoe, 'rMAE': rMAE_entsoe}
|
| 525 |
+
elif variable_name == 'Wind_offshore':
|
| 526 |
+
results_wind_offshore[forecast_entsoe_column] = {'MAE': mae_entsoe, 'RMSE': rmse_entsoe, 'rMAE': rMAE_entsoe}
|
| 527 |
+
elif variable_name == 'Load':
|
| 528 |
+
results_load[forecast_entsoe_column] = {'MAE': mae_entsoe, 'RMSE': rmse_entsoe, 'rMAE': rMAE_entsoe}
|
| 529 |
+
elif variable_name == 'Solar':
|
| 530 |
+
results_solar[forecast_entsoe_column] = {'MAE': mae_entsoe, 'RMSE': rmse_entsoe, 'rMAE': rMAE_entsoe}
|
| 531 |
+
|
| 532 |
+
# Convert the dictionaries to DataFrames and sort by rMAE
|
| 533 |
+
df_wind_onshore = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(results_wind_onshore, orient='index').sort_values(by='rMAE')
|
| 534 |
+
df_wind_offshore = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(results_wind_offshore, orient='index').sort_values(by='rMAE')
|
| 535 |
+
df_load = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(results_load, orient='index').sort_values(by='rMAE')
|
| 536 |
+
df_solar = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(results_solar, orient='index').sort_values(by='rMAE')
|
| 537 |
+
|
| 538 |
+
|
| 539 |
+
st.write("##### Wind Onshore:")
|
| 540 |
+
st.dataframe(df_wind_onshore)
|
| 541 |
+
|
| 542 |
+
st.write("##### Wind Offshore:")
|
| 543 |
+
st.dataframe(df_wind_offshore)
|
| 544 |
+
|
| 545 |
+
st.write("##### Load:")
|
| 546 |
+
st.dataframe(df_load)
|
| 547 |
+
|
| 548 |
+
st.write("##### Solar:")
|
| 549 |
+
st.dataframe(df_solar)
|
| 550 |
+
|
| 551 |
+
|
| 552 |
+
|
| 553 |
+
else:
|
| 554 |
+
accuracy_metrics = pd.DataFrame(columns=['MAE', 'rMAE'], index=['Load', 'Solar', 'Wind Onshore', 'Wind Offshore'])
|
| 555 |
+
|
| 556 |
+
for i in range(0, len(forecast_columns), 2):
|
| 557 |
+
actual_col = forecast_columns[i]
|
| 558 |
+
forecast_col = forecast_columns[i + 1]
|
| 559 |
+
if forecast_col in data.columns:
|
| 560 |
+
obs = data[actual_col]
|
| 561 |
+
pred = data[forecast_col]
|
| 562 |
+
error = pred - obs
|
| 563 |
+
|
| 564 |
+
mae = round(np.mean(np.abs(error)),2)
|
| 565 |
+
if 'Load' in actual_col:
|
| 566 |
+
persistence = obs.shift(168) # Weekly persistence
|
| 567 |
+
else:
|
| 568 |
+
persistence = obs.shift(24) # Daily persistence
|
| 569 |
+
|
| 570 |
+
# Using the whole year's data for rMAE calculations
|
| 571 |
+
rmae = round(mae / np.mean(np.abs(obs - persistence)),2)
|
| 572 |
+
|
| 573 |
+
row_label = 'Load' if 'Load' in actual_col else 'Solar' if 'Solar' in actual_col else 'Wind Offshore' if 'Wind_offshore' in actual_col else 'Wind Onshore'
|
| 574 |
+
accuracy_metrics.loc[row_label] = [mae, rmae]
|
| 575 |
+
|
| 576 |
+
accuracy_metrics.dropna(how='all', inplace=True)# Sort by rMAE (second column)
|
| 577 |
+
accuracy_metrics.sort_values(by=accuracy_metrics.columns[1], ascending=True, inplace=True)
|
| 578 |
+
accuracy_metrics = accuracy_metrics.round(4)
|
| 579 |
+
|
| 580 |
+
col1, col2 = st.columns([3, 2])
|
| 581 |
+
|
| 582 |
+
with col1:
|
| 583 |
+
st.dataframe(accuracy_metrics)
|
| 584 |
+
|
| 585 |
+
with col2:
|
| 586 |
+
st.markdown("""
|
| 587 |
+
<style>
|
| 588 |
+
.big-font {
|
| 589 |
+
font-size: 20px;
|
| 590 |
+
font-weight: 500;
|
| 591 |
+
}
|
| 592 |
+
</style>
|
| 593 |
+
<div class="big-font">
|
| 594 |
+
Equations
|
| 595 |
+
</div>
|
| 596 |
+
""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 597 |
+
|
| 598 |
+
st.markdown(r"""
|
| 599 |
+
$\text{MAE} = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}|y_i - \hat{y}_i|$
|
| 600 |
+
|
| 601 |
+
|
| 602 |
+
$\text{rMAE} = \frac{\text{MAE}}{MAE_{\text{Persistence Model}}}$
|
| 603 |
+
|
| 604 |
+
|
| 605 |
+
""")
|
| 606 |
+
|
| 607 |
+
|
| 608 |
+
|
| 609 |
+
st.subheader('ACF plots of Errors')
|
| 610 |
+
st.write('The below plots show the ACF (Auto-Correlation Function) for the errors of all three fields: Solar, Wind and Load.')
|
| 611 |
+
|
| 612 |
+
for i in range(0, len(forecast_columns), 2):
|
| 613 |
+
actual_col = forecast_columns[i]
|
| 614 |
+
forecast_col = forecast_columns[i + 1]
|
| 615 |
+
if forecast_col in data.columns:
|
| 616 |
+
obs = data[actual_col]
|
| 617 |
+
pred = data[forecast_col]
|
| 618 |
+
error = pred - obs
|
| 619 |
+
|
| 620 |
+
st.write(f"**ACF of Errors for {actual_col}**")
|
| 621 |
+
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 5))
|
| 622 |
+
plot_acf(error.dropna(), ax=ax)
|
| 623 |
+
st.pyplot(fig)
|
| 624 |
+
|
| 625 |
+
acf_values = acf(error.dropna(), nlags=240)
|
| 626 |
+
|
| 627 |
+
# Section 3: Insights
|
| 628 |
+
elif section == 'Insights':
|
| 629 |
+
st.header("Insights")
|
| 630 |
+
st.write("""
|
| 631 |
+
This section provides insights derived from the data and forecasts.
|
| 632 |
+
You can visualize trends, anomalies, and other important findings.
|
| 633 |
+
""")
|
| 634 |
+
|
| 635 |
+
# Scatter plots for correlation between wind, solar, and load
|
| 636 |
+
st.subheader('Correlation between Wind, Solar, and Load')
|
| 637 |
+
st.write('The below scatter plots for correlation between all three fields: Solar, Wind and Load.')
|
| 638 |
+
|
| 639 |
+
combinations = [('Solar_entsoe', 'Load_entsoe'), ('Wind_onshore_entsoe', 'Load_entsoe'), ('Wind_offshore_entsoe', 'Load_entsoe'), ('Solar_entsoe', 'Wind_onshore_entsoe'), ('Solar_entsoe', 'Wind_offshore_entsoe')]
|
| 640 |
+
|
| 641 |
+
for x_col, y_col in combinations:
|
| 642 |
+
if x_col in data.columns and y_col in data.columns:
|
| 643 |
+
# For solar combinations, filter out zero values
|
| 644 |
+
if 'Solar_entsoe' in x_col:
|
| 645 |
+
filtered_data = data[data['Solar_entsoe'] > 0]
|
| 646 |
+
x_values = filtered_data[x_col]
|
| 647 |
+
y_values = filtered_data[y_col]
|
| 648 |
+
else:
|
| 649 |
+
x_values = data[x_col]
|
| 650 |
+
y_values = data[y_col]
|
| 651 |
+
|
| 652 |
+
corr_coef = x_values.corr(y_values)
|
| 653 |
+
fig = px.scatter(
|
| 654 |
+
x=x_values,
|
| 655 |
+
y=y_values,
|
| 656 |
+
labels={'x': f'{x_col} [MW]', 'y': f'{y_col} [MW]'},
|
| 657 |
+
title=f'{x_col} vs {y_col} (Correlation: {corr_coef:.2f})', color_discrete_sequence=['grey'])
|
| 658 |
+
st.plotly_chart(fig)
|
| 659 |
+
|
| 660 |
+
|
| 661 |
+
st.subheader('Weather vs. Generation/Demand')
|
| 662 |
+
st.write('The below scatter plots show the relation between weather parameters (i.e., Temperature, Wind Speed) and generation/demand.')
|
| 663 |
+
|
| 664 |
+
for weather_col in weather_columns:
|
| 665 |
+
for actual_col in ['Load_entsoe', 'Solar_entsoe', 'Wind_onshore_entsoe', 'Wind_offshore_entsoe']:
|
| 666 |
+
if weather_col in data.columns and actual_col in data.columns:
|
| 667 |
+
clean_label = actual_col.replace('_entsoe', '')
|
| 668 |
+
if weather_col == 'Temperature':
|
| 669 |
+
fig = px.scatter(x=data[weather_col], y=data[actual_col], labels={'x': f'{weather_col} (°C)', 'y': f'{clean_label} Generation [MW]'}, color_discrete_sequence=['orange'])
|
| 670 |
+
else:
|
| 671 |
+
fig = px.scatter(x=data[weather_col], y=data[actual_col], labels={'x': f'{weather_col} (km/h)', 'y': clean_label})
|
| 672 |
+
fig.update_layout(title=f'{weather_col} vs {actual_col}')
|
| 673 |
+
st.plotly_chart(fig)
|
| 674 |
+
|
| 675 |
|